Computing - The Next 10 Years Universal Access to Information Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University...
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Computing - The Next 10 YearsComputing - The Next 10 YearsUniversal Access to InformationUniversal Access to Information
Raj ReddyRaj Reddy
Carnegie Mellon UniversityCarnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, USAPittsburgh, USA
April 6, 2001April 6, 2001
Talk presented at Georgia Tech 10Talk presented at Georgia Tech 10thth Anniversary Convocation Anniversary Convocation
Future TechnologyFuture Technology
Computational power doubles every 18 months Computational power doubles every 18 months (Moore’s Law)(Moore’s Law) 100-fold improvement every 10 years100-fold improvement every 10 years
Disk Densities double every 12 monthsDisk Densities double every 12 months 1000-fold improvement every 10 years1000-fold improvement every 10 years
Optical bandwidth doubling every 9 monthsOptical bandwidth doubling every 9 months 10000-fold improvement every 10 years 10000-fold improvement every 10 years
Infinite Bandwidth and Memory before Infinite Bandwidth and Memory before ComputationComputation Cost decreasing, density increasingCost decreasing, density increasing
What does the future hold?What does the future hold?
We can see some glimpses of the future We can see some glimpses of the future Universities without walls,Universities without walls, Computers that never fail and self healing softwareComputers that never fail and self healing software Every home with giga PCs connected by gigabit Every home with giga PCs connected by gigabit
networksnetworks Access to all the published creative works of the world Access to all the published creative works of the world
anytime anywhere anyoneanytime anywhere anyone
Emergence of the World Bank of, not money, but Emergence of the World Bank of, not money, but KnowledgeKnowledge
Systems, so-called geriatric robotics, that help the Systems, so-called geriatric robotics, that help the disabled lead normal lives, and disabled lead normal lives, and
Systems that give the rest of us superhuman Systems that give the rest of us superhuman capabilities, like getting a month’s work done in a daycapabilities, like getting a month’s work done in a day
Universal Access to Universal Access to InformationInformation
Information at your fingertipsInformation at your fingertips
Access to all human knowledge:Access to all human knowledge:AnyoneAnyoneAnywhereAnywhereAnytimeAnytime
All Human Knowledge All Human Knowledge Recorded InformationRecorded Information
BooksBooksPeriodicals (journals, newspapers)Periodicals (journals, newspapers)Music, opera, danceMusic, opera, dancePaintings, Sculptures and MonumentsPaintings, Sculptures and MonumentsMovies, videoMovies, videoDatabases, softwareDatabases, software
Suppose all of this were on the WebSuppose all of this were on the Web
Examples from www.ulib.orgExamples from www.ulib.org
Lecture: Lecture: Michael Shamos on ULBooks: Books: A Child’s History of EnglandArt: Art: Greek Art
Collection of static contentCollection of static content Collection of dynamic multimedia contentCollection of dynamic multimedia content
Linearly organisedLinearly organised Browsable, navigableBrowsable, navigable
Selected by an Author as relatedSelected by an Author as related Selected by User as relatedSelected by User as related
Occupying a single physical locationOccupying a single physical location No physical existenceNo physical existence
Physically bound between coverPhysically bound between cover Instantly TransmittableInstantly Transmittable
What is a book? What is a book? What is a digital book ?What is a digital book ?
What is a Library?What is a Library?
Collection of itemsCollection of itemsLinearly organized (shelves)Linearly organized (shelves)Chosen by budget constraintsChosen by budget constraintsOccupying physical spaceOccupying physical spaceCataloged for accessCataloged for access
What is a Digital Library?What is a Digital Library?
Collection of digital itemsCollection of digital items(potentially huge(potentially huge))
Encompassing everything (someday) Encompassing everything (someday) Organized arbitrarilyOrganized arbitrarilyOccupying no physical spaceOccupying no physical spaceFully content-searchableFully content-searchable
Universal Library ImplicationsUniversal Library Implications
Elimination of time, space, cost constraintsElimination of time, space, cost constraints Democratization of informationDemocratization of information
““Knowledge is power”Knowledge is power” Hyperlinks to related informationHyperlinks to related information Preservation and Dissemination of Preservation and Dissemination of
KnowledgeKnowledge faster and widerfaster and wider Backup preservationBackup preservation
Preservation of culturePreservation of culture
Universal Library ImplicationsUniversal Library Implications
ResearchResearchWeb of scholarly information, reviewsWeb of scholarly information, reviews
TeachingTeachingSupport for distance educationSupport for distance educationAcademic publishingAcademic publishingVirtual museumsVirtual museums
InteractivityInteractivity
Universal Library ApplicationsUniversal Library Applications
Acess to “Born Digital” InformationAcess to “Born Digital” InformationWorld produces a Billion Billion(10World produces a Billion Billion(101818) )
bytes of information every year(Lyman bytes of information every year(Lyman and Varian)and Varian)
90% is stored digitally90% is stored digitallyDigital museumDigital museumDigital tour guideDigital tour guide
What’s in the Taj Mahal?What’s in the Taj Mahal?
Universal Library ApplicationsUniversal Library Applications
Research assistantResearch assistantWhat did Newton write about color?What did Newton write about color?What are Moslem views on race?What are Moslem views on race?
Teaching resourceTeaching resource““Act out” books in virtual realityAct out” books in virtual realityReal-time explanationsReal-time explanations
Business informationBusiness informationData miningData mining
We Can Store EverythingWe Can Store Everything
1 book = 500 pp. 1 book = 500 pp. 1MB uncompressed – 300KB compressed1MB uncompressed – 300KB compressed101088 to 3x 10 to 3x 1088 books = ~10 books = ~101414 bytes = 100 bytes = 100
terabytesterabytes
Over 100 million computers on the Over 100 million computers on the InternetInternetAt 1 GB each, >100 petabytes At 1 GB each, >100 petabytes nownow
1 GB of disk costs ~$31 GB of disk costs ~$3100 terabytes < $300 thousand to $1 million100 terabytes < $300 thousand to $1 million
Non-textual MaterialNon-textual Material
1 Movie = 10 GB1 Movie = 10 GB 1 petabyte = 100,000 movies1 petabyte = 100,000 movies All the movies ever made!All the movies ever made!
AudioAudio 1 petabyte = 3000 1 petabyte = 3000 yearsyears of music of music All music ever performed or recordedAll music ever performed or recorded
Paintings and Photos @ 1 MBPaintings and Photos @ 1 MB 1 petabyte = 1 billion painting or photos1 petabyte = 1 billion painting or photos
Non-textual MaterialNon-textual Material
Gore’s Digital EarthGore’s Digital Earth ““A multi-resolution, three-dimensional A multi-resolution, three-dimensional
representation of the planet, into which we can representation of the planet, into which we can embed vast quantities of geo-referenced data.”embed vast quantities of geo-referenced data.”
Area of Earth Area of Earth 1/21/2 peta m peta m22 1000 bytes/m1000 bytes/m22 feasible feasible2 MB/m2 MB/m22 not practical yet not practical yet 10102121 bytes bytes
= 1 zettabyte = 1 zettabyte {peta-, exa-, zetta-, yotta-}{peta-, exa-, zetta-, yotta-}
Technological ChallengesTechnological Challenges
Input (scanning, digitizing, OCR)Input (scanning, digitizing, OCR)Data representationData representation
text, notations, images, web pagestext, notations, images, web pagesNavigation and SearchNavigation and SearchMultilingual IssuesMultilingual IssuesOutput (voice, pictures, virtual Output (voice, pictures, virtual
reality)reality)Synthetic DocumentsSynthetic Documents
Universal Library DesignUniversal Library Design
ModularModularTechnology plug-ins (e.g. machine Technology plug-ins (e.g. machine
translation)translation)DistributedDistributed
Mirror sitesMirror sitesMultiple interfacesMultiple interfaces
Human (languages, cultures, literacy)Human (languages, cultures, literacy)MachineMachine
Universal Library DesignUniversal Library Design
Speech input/outputSpeech input/outputPictorial outputPictorial outputLanguage supportLanguage support
Translation assistantsTranslation assistantsSummarization toolsSummarization toolsSynthetic documentsSynthetic documents
Encyclopedia-on-demandEncyclopedia-on-demand
Input IssuesInput Issues
Non-digital mediaNon-digital mediaConversion, scanning, correctionConversion, scanning, correctionTriple keyboard, uncorrected OCRTriple keyboard, uncorrected OCR
Digital mediaDigital mediaFormats, conversions, color Formats, conversions, color
representationrepresentationASCII, HTML, SGML, XML, PDF, PS, TEXASCII, HTML, SGML, XML, PDF, PS, TEXJPEG, TIFF, GIF? JPEG, TIFF, GIF?
Input IssuesInput Issues
Structured matterStructured matterMusical notation, LabanMusical notation, LabanChemistryChemistry
3D Items3D ItemsResource allocation (what’s Resource allocation (what’s
first?)first?)Duplication of effort (no registry)Duplication of effort (no registry)
MetadataMetadata
Data Data aboutabout an item not part of the an item not part of the itemitemBibliographicBibliographicFormat, medium, encoding, resolutionFormat, medium, encoding, resolutionProvenanceProvenanceReliability, integrityReliability, integrityPermissionsPermissions
Who generates metadata?Who generates metadata?
NavigationNavigation
Browsing, finding, searching, flyingBrowsing, finding, searching, flying
Fractal viewFractal viewKeys are Keys are granularitygranularity and and
connectivityconnectivityView whole collections or one glyphView whole collections or one glyph
UnderstandingUnderstanding structurestructure of of informationinformation
Making Sense Of The World’s Knowledge
Searching MathematicsSearching Mathematics
0
2sin2
dxxe x
4/92
22
Searching MathematicsSearching Mathematics
0
2sin2
dxxe x
MATHEMATICA Canonical Form:
Integrate[
Times[Power[E,Times[-1,Power[V1,2]]],
Sin[Power[V1,2]]],
{V1,0,Infinity}]
Multilingual IssuesMultilingual Issues
Character setsCharacter setsRepresentationsRepresentations
Íîäà ôèçè÷åñêè íàõîäèòñÿ â çäàíèè ÈçâåñòèéÍîäà ôèçè÷åñêè íàõîäèòñÿ â çäàíèè Èçâåñòèé
Нода физически находится в здании ИзвестийНода физически находится в здании Известий
Multilingual navigationMultilingual navigationTranslation assistanceTranslation assistance
Synthetic DocumentsSynthetic Documents
Documents derived Documents derived automatically from retrieved automatically from retrieved informationinformationMultilingual translationMultilingual translation
Abstracts, summaries, glossariesAbstracts, summaries, glossariesEncyclopedia-on-demandEncyclopedia-on-demand
Information ReliabilityInformation Reliability
Existence Existence validity validityUniversal Library PhilosophyUniversal Library Philosophy
Avoid value judgments Avoid value judgments Provide information from which Provide information from which
usersusers(and programs) can assess validity(and programs) can assess validity
Source, reputation, recency, Source, reputation, recency, reviews, consistencyreviews, consistency
Scaling ProblemsScaling Problems
Search services (e.g. Altavista) Search services (e.g. Altavista) index >10index >1088 documents documentsSuppose there were 10Suppose there were 101212 ? ?
How can a billion users access How can a billion users access the same item at once?the same item at once?
Policy ChallengesPolicy Challenges
Use of copyrighted materialUse of copyrighted materialEconomics (Who pays? Who Economics (Who pays? Who
gets?)gets?)PrivacyPrivacyReliability of informationReliability of informationChange in the nature of teachingChange in the nature of teaching
Use Of ©Use Of © ContentContent
Philosophy: must pay for usePhilosophy: must pay for useAuthors, publishers will not sufferAuthors, publishers will not suffer
Implied licenseImplied licenseAutomated permissionsAutomated permissionsBulk licensing Bulk licensing Compulsory licensingCompulsory licensing
Owner CAN’T refuse; user MUST Owner CAN’T refuse; user MUST paypay
EconomicsEconomics
Flat-fee subscriptions (e.g. HBO)Flat-fee subscriptions (e.g. HBO)Metered use (electric company)Metered use (electric company)Microcharge (Tobias “clickl”)Microcharge (Tobias “clickl”)Free (paid by government)Free (paid by government)Automated permissionsAutomated permissionsUse measured by technologyUse measured by technology
Operating ModelOperating Model
Single portal for access to Single portal for access to allall informationinformation
Universal Library provides input, Universal Library provides input, access, multilingual, output and access, multilingual, output and synthesis toolssynthesis tools
Universal Library will be a model Universal Library will be a model scanning operationscanning operation
Registry of digitized worksRegistry of digitized works
Operating ModelOperating Model
Specialized collections curated Specialized collections curated by specialists, provided to by specialists, provided to Universal LibraryUniversal Library
Foreign collection performed in Foreign collection performed in foreign countriesforeign countries
Universal Library will be mirrored Universal Library will be mirrored in ~12 sites around the worldin ~12 sites around the world
Universal Library StatusUniversal Library Status>13,000 digital volumes>13,000 digital volumesArtArtNewspapersNewspapersMusic, videoMusic, videoPortal to hundreds of other collectionsPortal to hundreds of other collections
Visit Visit http://www.ulib.orghttp://www.ulib.org
ProjectsProjects
NavigatorNavigatorAcademic electronic publishingAcademic electronic publishingElectronic Union CatalogElectronic Union CatalogBooks out of copyrightBooks out of copyright
books out of print books out of printSoftware distributionSoftware distribution
Conclusions and Conclusions and RecommendationsRecommendations
ConclusionsConclusions Barely 10% of all public information is available on the Barely 10% of all public information is available on the
InternetInternet Government needs to play a leadership role in developing Government needs to play a leadership role in developing
digital librariesdigital libraries Significant technical and operational challenges in Significant technical and operational challenges in
migrating and maintaining holdings in digital formmigrating and maintaining holdings in digital form Intellectual Property rights need to be addressed to Intellectual Property rights need to be addressed to
facilitate creation and access digital librariesfacilitate creation and access digital libraries
RecommendationsRecommendations Support research: meta data, scalability, multiple Support research: meta data, scalability, multiple
languages, security, and usabilitylanguages, security, and usability Create testbeds: million book projectCreate testbeds: million book project Place all public governmental information onlinePlace all public governmental information online Preserve IP rights of creators by creating tax incentives Preserve IP rights of creators by creating tax incentives
for public use of online copyrighted informationfor public use of online copyrighted information