Computers of the future

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Catching the Future Before it Catches You 2009 NMC Symposium for the Future

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Transcript of Computers of the future

Page 1: Computers of the future

Catching the Future

Before it Catches You∞

2009 NMC Symposium for the

Future

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Catching the Future Before it Catches You

1. Methods• Extrapolation• Delphi• Scenarios • Futures market

2. Scans• Environmental scan

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Principles of Forecasting (2001) (http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html)

Apprehending the futures

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Extrapolation

iPhone Apps Store downloads1. April 2009 1.0 billion2. July 2009 1.5 billion3. Sept 2009 2.0 billion

-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics

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Limitations

• Trend lines vary• Doesn’t account

for new things• The Black Swan

(Taleb, 2007)

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Delphi

• Assemble experts• Probe for opinions• Rank and distill

ideas• Reiterate

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Example: the Horizon Report

• “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews

• [We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones.

• A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression.

• Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”

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Limitations

• Groupthink• Information

compression• The Black Swan

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Scenarios Stories about futures• Event and response• Creativity

• Roles and times• Emergent practices and

patterns

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Limitations

• Culture• Resources• The Black

Swan

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Futures marketFeatures• Propositions in time• Shares to be traded

Advantages• Continuous• Distributed feedback• Affordances of play

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Will 25 or more institutions be participating in Flickr’s Creative

Commons project by March 26, 2009?

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When will the number of Facebook users hit 200 million?

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Limitations

• Quantitative threshold• Physical proximity• Market metaphor• The Black Swan

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II. Scanning

• Environmental scanning• Pattern

recognition

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Crowdsourcing

Different levels• Social network

• Crowd computing• Iterated resource feeds

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Crowdsourcing

• Your turn: where do you feed your head? People, blogs, print, whatever you like.

head to the public chat.

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Citations

• iCub, http://infocult.typepad.com/infocult/2009/09/robot-children-toddle-out-of-the-uncanny-valley.html

• Principles of Forecasting chart, http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/methodologytree.html

• accessCeramics, Lewis and Clark, http://accessceramics.org/ • Nassim Taleb, http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ • Black Swans: Field Museum Library, http://

www.flickr.com/photos/field_museum_library/3405475664/; gnuckx cc0, http://www.flickr.com/photos/34409164@N06/3209135920/

• Great California Shakeout, http://www.shakeout.org/media/index.html

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More citations

• NITLE Prediction Markets, http://markets.nitle.org/ • Cat and kitten, http://www.flickr.com/photos/bryanalexander • Bing’s Twitter search, http://www.bing.com/twitter • Episilon Aurigae crowdsourcing, http://mysite.du.edu/~

rstencel/epsaurnews.htm • Horizon Report 2010 wiki, http://horizon.wiki.nmc.org/• “Apprehending the Future: Emerging Technologies, from Science

Fiction to Campus Reality”, EDUCAUSE Review, vol. 44, no. 3 (May/June 2009): 12–29. http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume44/ApprehendingtheFutureEmergingT/171774. More sources there.

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The ultimate links

NITLEhttp://nitle.org

Liberal Education Todayhttp://blogs.nitle.org/let

NITLE prediction markets gamehttp://markets.nitle.org/

Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander