Comprehensively Assessing Ecosystem Service Dynamics in ...
Transcript of Comprehensively Assessing Ecosystem Service Dynamics in ...
Comprehensively AssessingEcosystem Service Dynamics in Savannas:
ISSEC – An SES Framework
Urs P. KreuterJoan Negley Kelleher Endowed Professor
Ecosystem Science & [email protected]
Thought for the Day
“If our western science is to move beyond that sterility
that views the world as object then it too must be willing
to enter into new logical forms and new orders … that will
tolerate ambiguity, paradox, metaphor, … yet at the same
time preserve the integrated balance of the whole.”
F. David Peat. 2005. Pathways of Chance. Pari Publishing, Grosetto, Italy.
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Systems Thinking
Karl Ludwig von Bertalanffy. 1968. General Systems Theory:
• A system is a complex entity that refers to itself and, through self-reference, resists influences from its environment and, therefore, persists in its composition.
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Peter M. Senge. 1990. The Fifth Discipline – The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. Random House, New York, NY:
• We are taught to simplify complexity by breaking “wholes” into parts … [but in so doing] the whole is stripped of an essential quality – Interrelatedness!
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Strength of links between categories of ecosystem services and components of human well-being (includes indications of extent to which socioeconomic factors can mediate the linkage).
In situ services
Extractable goods
Context – Kruger to Canyons Biosphere
• The Kruger to Canyons (K2C) biosphere was established to promote
solutions to reconcile the objectives of biodiversity conservation and
sustainable development.
• Primary land uses lead to different ecosystem responses: Public
protected areas (KNP); Private nature reserves (PNRs); Communal
lands; Others (cropping, mining, urban, etc.).
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
The Issue• Inequitable distribution of conservation-related benefits for people
within the K2C is socio-politically unsustainable.
• Semi-arid areas, in which dynamic savannas generally occur, will likely experience more erratic and extreme weather events.
• Natural capital and the delivery of ecosystem services provided by savannas will likely also become less predictable.
• To adapt to anticipated socio-political and climatic changes, a research and management approach is needed that integrates the biophysical and socio-economic elements of savannas (i.e., social-ecological systems approach).
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
The Challenge
• Social-ecological systems (SES) approaches to adapt to changing biophysical and socio-political conditions are hindered by:
Complex multi-scale interactions between the biophysical and socio-economic factors affecting ecosystem function (Nicholson et al., 2009).
Small spatial & short temporal scales that generally characterize land management decisions tend to inhibit comprehensive assessment of long-term tradeoffs related to “development” (Allred et al., 2015).
Inconsistent use of concepts and terms (e.g., resilience) to describe complex social-ecological systems (Ostrom, 2009).
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
A Useful Framework
• Sustainable Rangeland Roundtable (SRR) was established ~2000 to identify key criteria (5) and indicators (64) for federal agencies to quantify effectiveness of federal investments in land management.
• SRR developed Integrated Social, Economic & Ecological Conceptual (ISEEC) framework to disentangle complexity of interactions affecting the delivery and use of ecosystem services on rangelands (Fox et al., 2009).
• ISEEC is a useful tool for systematically identifying interactionsaffecting the integrity of social-ecological systems and indicators to monitor and evaluate these linkages (Kreuter et al., 2012, 2016).
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Social-Economic Capital (t0)
HumanCondition (t0)
Social- Economic Capital (t1)
HumanCondition (t1)
Soci
al-E
con
om
ic p
roce
sses
(so
cio
eco
no
mic
fu
nct
ion
s)
Social-economic Subsystem
Per capita income; Health and security;
Environmental awareness/concerns
Coordinated decisions;Investment capital;Policy and incentive
structures/institutions
Natural Capital (t0)
Biophysical Condition (t0)
Natural Capital (t1)
Biophysical Condition (t1)
Bio
ph
ysic
al p
roce
sses
(Eco
logi
cal f
un
ctio
ns)
Biophysical Subsystem
Amount and composition of biomass
Net primary productivity:
Hardwoods, grasses,forbs, weeds
ISEEC Framework
Ecosystem Services
Extractable
Goods
Extraction
of Goods
Tangible & Intangible Services
In Situ Use of
Services
External Outcomes
t1
t2
t1
t2
Framework for Ecosystem Heterogeneity
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
State t1
Agent(1o agent)
Controller(2o agent)
State t2
Responderset
Pickett, S.T.A., Cadenasso, M.L. & Benning, T.L. 2003. Biotic and abiotic variability as key determinants of savanna heterogeneity at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Pages 22-40 in: J.T. du Toit, K.H. Rogers and H.C. Biggs (eds.) The Kruger Experience: Ecology and Management of Savanna Heterogeneity. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA.
Biophysical Drivers in KNP
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Ecological processes
Soil nutrients, insects (dung
beetles, termites), avifauna,
predators, etc.
Natural capital & conditions t2
Shrubland, less grass
Natural capital & conditions t1
Savanna,grass/tree
Elephants Impalas
Socioeconomic Drivers in Savannas
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Social-economic processes
Conservation, Protection
Security,
Materials,
Health,
Social relations
Social-econ capital& conditions t2
Social-econ capital& conditions t1
Production,Utilitarian
Managers Organizations
D
Putting the Framework Together – ISEEC Applied in KNP
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Social-economic
Subsystem
Ma
na
ge
rsO
rgs
Preservation
Responders:Security,
Materials,
Health,
Social relations
Utilitarian
Ecosystem Services:
Extractable: Provisioning
In situ: Regulating, Cultural,
Supporting
Feedbacks:Negative, Positive
SE layers
Pub./private
investments,
Capacity
building
Production
of material
goods and
services
Laws,
Regulations,
Policies
Socia
l-econom
ic P
rocesses
Biophysical
Subsystem
Responders:Nutrients,
Insects,
Avifauna
Predators
Savannas
Shrublands
Ele
phants
Imp
ala
s
Ecolo
gic
al P
rocesses
Germination,
Establishment,
Reproduction,
Net growth
Soil type,
Herbaceous/
woody plant
composition
Climate Chg,
CO2, H2O,
temperature
BP layers
Process Drivers and Social Variables in the K2C
KNP
• Process DriversAgents: fire, elephants,
impalas, managers
[protection], organizations
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
PNRs
• Process DriversAgents: fire, elephants,
impalas, landowners
[clearing], organizations
Communal
• Process DriversAgents: fire, cattle, goats,
people [harvesting],
organizations
• Social variablesValues: biodiversity, wildlife
dispersal, landscape
heterogeneity, large trees
Policy: water distribution, fire
management, population
management
• Social variablesValues: access to big five,
luxury accommodations, off
road access, fire damage
Policy: water holes, tree
thinning (fire vs other),
hunting/culling
• Social variablesValues: livestock grazing,
thatching, fuel wood, wild
fruit, wildlife threat
Policy: livestock water and
grazing access, fuelwood
harvest, protected trees
Linking to Agent Based Modelling
Peter Checkland & Jim Scholes. 1990. Soft Systems Methodology in Action. J. Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
System
Thinking
Real
World
3. Root Definitions
(Agents, attributes,
behaviors)
4. Conceptual
models
2. Problem,
situation,
appreciated
5. Compare
2 & 4
1. Problem,
situation,
unstructured
6. Desirable
& feasible
changes
7. Implementation
Multi Agent Research & Simulation
• Individual entities (agents)– Have properties
– Sense environment
– Act to achieve goals
– Interact with other agents
– Interact with environment
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Layers in MARS
• Layers are the parts of the environment
• Layers contain information
• Timeseries data
• Geospatial data
• Agents live on layers
• Human layer
• Elephant layer
• Impala layer
• Tree layer
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Conclusion
• K2C was established to promote solutions to reconcile biodiversity conservation and sustainable development in a savanna ecosystem in the face of climatic and socio-political uncertainties.
• Savanna ecosystems are complex, dynamic multi-scale adaptive SYSTEMS that contain interacting biological and human agents.
• Complexity, self-organization, and emergent behavior in such ecosystems make predicting future system states problematic.
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Conclusion
• An integrated SES approach is needed to comprehend and adapt to anticipated changes in savanna systems.
• To predict future scenarios under changing biophysical and socio-political environments in K2C a network of expertise is needed in biophysical and social sciences, systems analysis and multi-agent simulation modeling (to operationalize integration in complex adaptive systems).
• In this way can we accommodate ambiguity, paradox and metaphor while preserving the integrated balance in complex social-ecological systems, represented by savannas within the K2C.
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Thank You
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
ReferencesAllred, B.W., et al. 2015. Ecosystem services lost to oil and gas in North America. Science 348, 401-402.
Fox, W.E., et al. 2009. An integrated social, economic, and ecologic conceptual framework for considering rangeland sustainability. Society & Natural Resources 22, 593-606.
Kreuter, U.P., et al. 2012. Framework for comparing ecosystem impacts of developing unconventional energy resources on western US rangelands. Rangeland Ecology & Management 65, 433-443
Kreuter, U.P., et al. 2016. State of knowledge about energy development impacts on North American rangelands: An integrative approach. J. Environmental Management. 180, 1-9.
Nicholson, E., et al. 2009. Priority research for ecosystem services in a changing world. J. Applied Ecology 46, 1139-1144.
Ostrom, E. 2009. A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems. Science 325, 419e422.
Peat, F.D. 2005. Pathways of Chance. Pari Publishing, Grosetto, Italy.
Pickett, S.T.A., Cadenasso, M.L. & Benning, T.L. 2003. Biotic and abiotic variability as key determinants of savanna heterogeneity at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Pages 22-40 in: J.T. du Toit, K.H. Rogers and H.C. Biggs (eds.) The Kruger Experience: Ecology and Management of Savanna Heterogeneity. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA
Senge. P.M. 1990. The Fifth Discipline:The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. Random House, New York, NY:
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Ecosystem Services in ISEEC
• In Savanna systems “key” ecosystem can include:– Extractable goods:
• provisioning – water, forage, fuel wood, thatching materials, plant-based foods, wild meat, honey, medicinal plants, etc.
– In situ services • regulating – water filtration, carbon storage, pollination;
• cultural – aesthetic quality, biodiversity;
• supporting – biodiversity, nutrient cycling; etc.
• Value placed on various ESs differs among public (KNP), private (PNRs) and communal land users.
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting
Social-Economic Capital (t0)
HumanCondition (t0)
Social- Economic Capital (t1)
HumanCondition (t1)
Soci
al-E
con
om
ic p
roce
sses
(so
cio
eco
no
mic
fu
nct
ion
s)
Social-economic Subsystem
Per capita income; Health and security;
Environmental awareness/concerns
Coordinated decisions;Investment capital;Policy and incentive
structures/institutions
Natural Capital (t0)
Biophysical Condition (t0)
Natural Capital (t1)
Biophysical Condition (t1)
Bio
ph
ysic
al p
roce
sses
(Eco
logi
cal f
un
ctio
ns)
Biophysical Subsystem
Amount and composition of biomass
Net primary productivity:
Hardwoods, grasses,forbs, weeds
ISEEC Framework
Ecosystem Services
Extractable
Goods
Extraction
of Goods
Tangible & Intangible Services
In Situ Use of
Services
External Outcomes
t1
t2
t1
t2
Measuring SustainabilitySocial criteria
Ecological criteria
Economic criteria
Sustainable
At Risk
Unsustainable
Study Area Sustainability
Space
100
100100
0
2018 Savanna Science Network Meeting