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8 October 2012 /29

Composites Market Report 2012

Market developments, trends, challenges and opportunities

The European GRP market - Dr. Elmar Witten (AVK) The global CRP market - Bernhard Jahn / Doris Karl (CCeV)

October 2012

8 October 2012 /29 Dr. Elmar Witten

Contents

The European ...................................................................................................................... 3

GRP Market .......................................................................................................................... 3

The European GRP market in 2012 .................................................................................... 4

Market observations ........................................................................................................... 5

GRP production in 2012: Overall development ................................................................. 5

Trends in the development of procedures/components................................................... 7

Application industries at a glance ...................................................................................... 9

GRP production in 2012: itemised by country .................................................................10

Outlook ...............................................................................................................................14

The global CRP market 2012 .............................................................................................15

General ................................................................................................................................16

The global carbon fibre market .........................................................................................16

The global carbon composites market .............................................................................19

Carbon composites: Market data and developments in 2011 .........................................19

Trends and outlook ............................................................................................................23

Final observations ..............................................................................................................27


The European

GRP Market

The Author Dr. Elmar Witten is Managing Director of the AVK - Industrievereinigung Verstärkte Kunststoffe e.V. (Federation of Reinforced Plastics). The AVK, as the German professional association for fibre composite plastics/composites, represents the interests of producers and processors of reinforced plastics/composites on a national and a European level. Its services include organisation of task forces, seminars and conferences as well as provid-

ing market relevant information (www.avk-tv.de).

The AVK is one of the four national pillars of the GKV – Gesamtverband Kunststoffverarbeitende Industrie and an international member of the European composites confederation EuCIA – the European Composites Industry Association.


The European GRP market in 2012

Growth only in a few market segments

As in past years, the development of the market for glass fibre reinforced plas-

tics (GRP) mirrors the general economic growth of the countries included in

this report quite closely. This is hardly surprising when we consider the appli-

cation industries to which GRP parts are supplied. The majority of customers

come from a very wide range of sectors, which in total account for a consider-

able proportion of the industrial production of the respective economies (e.g.

automotive, construction).

It is important for the future that companies in the market for fibre reinforced

plastics and composites ask themselves a number of questions. How can the

potential of this relatively young sector of the plastics industry (compared to

other materials) can be publicised and developed even more effectively? How

can production and demand in the sector be developed faster than the overall

economy? The currently hot topics of series production, substitution of other

materials, innovation and precisely targeted combinations of materials contin-

ue to offer enormous opportunities for this branch of industry.

Total European GRP production generally fell slightly compared to last year. To

evaluate this development in detail, as in previous years, it is essential to take

a closer look at the individual manufacturing processes, countries and applica-

tions. There is no other way of clearly describing the development of this ex-

tremely heterogeneous market. As a specialist segment of the plastics indus-

try, the GRP industry essentially tracked the general development of the plas-

tics processing industry as it has done in previous years.


Market observations

A survey conducted by the AVK - the German composites association - once again

gathered information about GRP production volumes in Europe in 2012. To make it

possible to compare this information with data from previous years, "Europe" as rep-

resented here again only includes those countries whose production data was explic-

itly available to the raw materials suppliers surveyed. In addition, this year's figures

for the first time include Turkey, which is becoming an ever more important player in

the European composites industry, as well as data from other countries from South-

Eastern Europe and Western Asia that have not previously been taken into account.

In the following, the term GRP includes all materials with a thermoset matrix as well

as glass mat reinforced thermoplastics (GMT) and long fibre reinforced thermoplas-

tics (LFT). Short fibre reinforced thermoplastics are not included here. Carbon fibre

reinforced plastics (CRP), which are also composite materials, are dealt with sepa-

rately in the second section of this market report. The market for additional reinforc-

ing fibres (e.g. natural fibres) will not be considered here. Generally, approx. 95% of

fibre composites are still manufactured from GRP, i.e. the most commonly used rein-

forcing fibres are glass fibres (short and long fibres, rovings, fabrics).

GRP production in 2012: Overall development

Compared to 2011, the production volume of GRP in Europe will fall by approx. 4%

to 1.01 million tonnes in 2012 (s. Fig. 1). The recently positive trend back towards the

level achieved before the economic and financial crisis has therefore once again

stopped or slowed, at least for now.

Considering the current interest of the trade press and general business press in the

future of fibre reinforced plastics and composites - especially over recent months -

this may come as something of a surprise. The media hype surrounding the use of

carbon fibre reinforced plastics (CRP) in high volume automobile production would

suggest a rosy future for all concerned.


However, a realistic view of the current possibilities is slowly gaining the upper hand

– even in media reports. There are still a substantial number of challenges to be

mastered in this area: due to its small market share, even above average growth of

CRP would only have a relatively small effect on the total volume of composite pro-

duction in the medium term. The question of whether CRP will become a widely used

material in high volume automobile production is still an open one and the answer

currently still depends on many factors. Public interest and debate about the subject

is certainly helpful in generating a highly dynamic market and a discussion of the top-

ic of composite materials in general is also advantageous. It contributes to raising

awareness of these relatively young materials and spreading the knowledge of the

various potential areas of application among executives in the relevant branches of

industry.

Fig. 1: GRP production volumes in Europe itemised by procedures/components (kT = kilotonnes, 2012* = estimate)

2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008

kT kT kT kT kT

SMC 188 198 198 160 210

BMC 70 69 69 56 70

∑ SMC/BMC 258 267 267 216 280

Hand lay-up 145 160 160 123 202

Spray-up 90 98 92 74 103

∑ Open mould 235 258 252 197 305

RTM 120 120 113 94 106

Sheets 78 77 72 56 69

Pultrusion 47 51 47 39 46

∑ Continuous processing 125 128 119 95 115

Filament winding 80 86 82 69 79

Centrifugal casting 67 69 66 55 62

∑ Pipes and Tanks 147 155 148 124 141

GMT/LFT 108 105 100 75 95

Others 17 16 16 14 16

Sum: 1,010 1,049 1,015 815 1,058


Trends in the development of procedures/components

Falling demand in vehicle production throughout Europe is also reflected in the trend

for thermoset SMC (sheet moulding compound) parts. The relatively stronger growth

noted last year in automobile applications is now once again switching in favour of

the electro/electronics (E & E) sector, which is currently growing at least slightly in

European countries. This is one reason why BMC (bulk moulding compound) produc-

tion, which is primarily used in this sector, is growing slightly while SMC components

have experienced a fall of around 5%. With a history stretching back over 50 years,

the importance of the industrial production of SMC and BMC in the composites sector

should, however, not be underestimated: after all, production in this sector accounts

for nearly one quarter of the total European GRP market. It is also worth mentioning

that these products are often those, which are ready for series or similar scale pro-

duction. Mass production of composite parts, the subject of so much discussion,

therefore already exists.

As was the case last year, demand for parts produced using so-called "open pro-

cesses" (hand lay-up, spray-up) has generally continued to develop less well than

other markets. After stagnating last year, these manual processes suffered the

greatest relative fall (9%) of any sector in the GRP market in 2012.

This particularly affects the many small companies that make individual or small

numbers of parts with very little automation. As a result, the expansion of offshore

wind farms, for example, is currently only making slow progress primarily due to rea-

sons of economic feasibility, financing and technological problems. Production of the

wind turbine rotor blades, still predominantly made from GRP, continues to be out-

sourced to other countries. The material properties demanded by ever larger rotor

blades also mean that GRP is in some cases being substituted by CRP, for which

this is the primary application. The maritime sector, in which the use of open pro-

cesses is widespread, is also currently suffering steep falls in demand in Southern

European countries.


Another factor at work here is that the industrialisation and automation of GRP pro-

duction continues to advance. This may also lead to further reductions in demand for

open processes.

The market for RTM (resin transfer moulding) and parts manufactured using this pro-

cess has fared comparatively well this year with zero growth. Substitution of open

processes and increased use in automobile production promise a bright future with

strong growth potential. Moreover, improvements and adaptations of the processes

subsumed under this category are the focus of a large number of research projects to

develop improved, faster production cycles, incl. in high volume automobile produc-

tion.

Continuous processes for manufacturing GRP panels are one of the few areas to

have grown a little over the past year: a few major processing companies produce

large volumes very efficiently here with a relatively high degree of automation.

The market for GRP pultrusion profiles, in contrast, experienced a fall of 8% with

production volumes continuing to be relatively low. One reason for this is the signifi-

cant idle capacity in the construction sector in many European countries. Construc-

tion and infrastructure are among the main areas of application for these products

along with isolated applications in the maritime and sport & leisure sectors.

There is also a clear decline in the manufacture of pipe and tank components using

the centrifugal casting and filament winding processes. Not even strong business in

the area of sewer renovation using so-called pipe liners can compensate for the lack

of major infrastructure projects especially in Southern Europe. The production of

pipes is still lagging far behind the trend in other regions of the world (especially

South-Eastern Europe and Western Asia).


With growth of 6%, glass mat reinforced thermoplastics (GMT) and long fibre rein-

forced thermoplastics (LFT) are the only processes with a non-thermoset matrix con-

sidered in this report to be clearly ahead of the trend in 2012. Obviously the sector

has been able to open up new areas of application and substitute alternative materi-

als despite falling demand in the automobile industry throughout Europe.

Application industries at a glance

Fig. 2 provides an overview of the proportions of GRP parts used by individual appli-

cation industries. These have remained relatively constant over time. The transport

and construction sectors each consume one third of total production volume. Other

sales markets include the electro/electronics sector (E & E) and the sport & leisure

segment.

Alongside parts for automobile and commercial vehicle construction, the transport

sector also comprises components for railway vehicles, boat building and aviation.

In the construction sector, important applications include pipes and infrastructure pro-

jects as well as industrial plant construction and the production of rotor blades for

wind turbines.

The sport & leisure sector is the only GRP segment in which products are primarily

manufactured for the consumer market. This business-to-consumer market offers

considerable potential for the development of new products due to the high ac-

ceptance of other composites and even GRP among consumers.


34%

14%35%

15% 2%

Transport Electro / Electronics

Construction Sport & Leisure

Others

Fig. 2: GRP production in Europe for different application industries (year: 2012)

GRP production in 2012: itemised by country

The development of the GRP markets in the various individual European countries

(see Fig. 3) depends heavily on a number of factors, such as the major application

industries operating in those countries and their respective general economic condi-

tions.

Continued falling car sales expected in Spain, Italy and France will exacerbate the

weakness in these traditional fortresses of the automobile sector and have a direct

impact on GRP subcontractor companies. The latest forecasts suggest the market

will only reach its nadir in 2013 with the lowest car sales in Western Europe.

This downward trend contrasts with global growth, which is benefiting particularly

from a catch-up effect in America and Asia as well as the BRIC countries. Strong ex-

porting countries (such as Germany) and highly diversified, international companies,


or those that can respond rapidly to market developments and changing conditions,

have the greatest chances of survival and expansion.

Recession and falling domestic demand in countries such as Spain, impact on every

sector of the economy - not just on those mentioned above. The automobile industry

is affected but so are the construction and E & E sectors, which are also relevant to

GRP production.

In 2012, the strongest growth in GRP production in Europe appears to be in Germa-

ny, the United Kingdom and the Eastern European countries considered in this re-

port. In Germany, the positive trend in the production of GRP parts mirrors the

stronger development of its overall economy in comparison to other European coun-

tries.

The serious decline in Scandinavian countries is primarily attributable to problems in

the important boat building sector and wind turbine rotor blade industry. For example,

in Finland the transport sector (incl. boat building) consumes almost two thirds and

the construction sector around one quarter of GRP production. Over half of these

components are manufactured using open processes.

Outsourcing of production to India (e.g. for SMC parts) or purchasing components

manufactured in China (e.g. for wind turbine rotor blades) is affecting all European

countries. Double digit growth rates are predicted for both countries over the coming

years.

The development of the world economy, including Europe's falling share of global

value creation in the medium- and long-term, will also leave its mark on GRP produc-

tion. Currently, Europe as a region (incl. countries not considered in this report) ac-

counts for around one quarter of total global production of all composites (incl. all re-

inforcing fibres and thermoplastic materials). The remainder is essentially distributed

between North America and Asia, with the latter having the larger share.


European countries will have opportunities to thrive if they can exploit their own spe-

cific strengths and gain advantages through innovation, quality and highly trained

employees. It is to be expected that the production of standard products with a mini-

mum standard of quality that can be achieved quickly by all suppliers and competition

primarily through price (= commoditisation) will continue to be relocated to non-

European locations.

For the first time, this report also considers Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran.

According to information provided by the Turkish Composites Association (TCMA),

this market has now reached a size of nearly 200 kT. It is therefore larger than any

other European market considered here and is enjoying above average growth - with

Turkish production expected to expand by approx. 15 kT in 2012. The main areas of

application and primary manufacturing methods, however, differ significantly from

those in other European countries: nearly three quarters of the total volume is used in

the construction sector and of that again nearly three quarters in the construction of

pipes and tanks. Transport is the second largest sector with one quarter of products

being manufactured for marine applications. Consequently, the centrifugal casting

and filament winding processes account for almost one half and hand lay-up and

RTM processes for approx. one third of production. The applications in Saudi Arabia,

Egypt and Iran and Middle Eastern countries in general are similar. The construction

of waste water treatment facilities and sewers, water tanks, offshore oil and gas facili-

ties and other completely different construction applications (e.g. sanitation, roofs,

masts, footpaths and plant construction) offer potential for the future.

Integrated production technology is becoming an absolute must for high wage Euro-

pean countries and material and energy efficiency are assuming ever greater im-

portance. The interaction between business and research - and also investment in

academic science - is a key factor in the success and innovative power of the GRP

industry.

New developments offer great potential for gaining a competitive advantage, e.g. in

lightweight construction solutions and particularly in the area of multi-material sys-

tems (e.g. composites and metals). Many European countries (especially Germany)


and companies are well-placed international leaders in the above areas with good

chances of defending their positions in the global market.

Fig. 3: GRP production volumes in Europe - and selected Middle Eastern countries - broken down by country / group of countries (kT = kilotonnes / 2012* = estimated / Eastern Europe** = Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Roma-nia, Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia / Turkey*** = Source: TCMA, approx. 10% (short fibre reinforced plastics) has been deducted from the total composites volume of 200 kT in 2011 to aid comparison with the other countries / Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran**** = Source: TCMA)

2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008

kT kT kT kT kT

UK / Ireland 134 126 130 106

123

Belgium / Netherlands / Lux-embourg 43 42 40 31

38

Finland / Norway / Sweden / Denmark 44 52 50 52

69

Spain / Portugal 160 200 217 188

236

Italy 152 165 154 122

183

France 117 122 116 87

115

Germany 182 172 161 118

145

Austria / Switzerland 17 17 16 13

13

Eastern Europe** 161 153 131 98

136

Sum: 1,010 1,049 1,015 815

1,058

Turkey*** 195 180

Saudi Arabia**** 250

Egypt**** 60

Iran**** 75


Outlook

Overall, the composites market is highly dynamic, especially in the area of GRP

manufacturing, which is dominated by small and medium sized companies. These

companies are seeking out new areas of application for their products, diversifying

their ranges and even the smallest companies are increasingly internationalising both

the purchasing and sales sides of their businesses. The winners of the future will

firstly be those companies, which manage to gain an advantage in the production of

commodity goods through continued industrialisation of processes and secondly

those that open up new applications (including combinations with other materials) or

serve niche markets.

If the potential of automation can be tapped (not just for commodities), the volume of

composite production as a whole will enjoy even higher rates of growth than in recent

years.

On the marketing side, an analysis of the sustainability of various materials could re-

veal many advantages for composites compared to "traditional" materials. A consid-

eration of the ecological, economic and social effects of production over the complete

life cycle of the product suggests that the ecological advantages of GRP may well be

the driving force that leads to the substitution of other materials.

It is clear that companies are currently using every opportunity to exchange infor-

mation and experience with other participants in the market, and even in other sec-

tors, as well as giving their employees the best possible training. Advantages in train-

ing and expertise will be critical factors in the success of innovative and competitive

composite materials and these must be improved together with every company along

the value chain!

8 October 2012 /29

The global CRP market 2012

The Authors

Bernhard Jahn is a project architect with Carbon Composites e.V. (CCeV).

Doris Karl is responsible for public relations at CCeV.

Carbon Composites e.V. (CCeV) is an association of companies and research institutes in

Germany, Austria and Switzerland for the entire value-added chain of high performance fibre

composite materials. It plays an important role in networking scientific research and busi-

nesses.

CCeV sees its role as a network of competence to promote the application of fibre compo-

sites with a focus on "marketable high performance fibre composite structures“. The empha-

sis is on fibre composite structures with plastic matrix materials, familiar to the wider public in

many applications, as well as on fibre composite structures with ceramic matrices, which

have higher resistance to temperature and wear.

8 October 2012 Seite 16/29 Bernhard Jahn/Doris Karl

General

For the first time, last year's CCeV market report considered the carbon fibre (CF)

market. The section was welcomed by readers and will therefore become a fixture in

the CRP market report. This part of the market report draws on information and fig-

ures supplied by CCeV members [SGLG]; [TohoT]; [Toray], which together represent over 50% of

global CF production.

The global carbon fibre market

The CCeV had access to additional sources of information for the production of the

Market Report 2012 and is therefore able to refine last year's data and offer even

greater precision. According to the revised figures, demand for carbon fibre in 2010

(33,000 t) was already slightly higher than it was before the financial and economic

crisis. In 2011, demand totalled 37,000 t and therefore slightly exceeded the fore-

casts made in 2010. This positive trend has encouraged even more optimistic fore-

casts for 2012 and subsequent years than was the case at the beginning of 2011.

Demand for 2012 is now estimated at around 42,000 t and even higher for 2014 at

approx. 73,000 t [MTP], [SGLG], [TEJL], [TohoT].

Fig. 1: Global demand for carbon fibre in tonnes

2008-2020 (*estimates)


These highly optimistic forecasts reflect the declared intent of a number of compa-

nies to expand their production capacity:

Toray plans to increase its CF capacity at all three of its locations by one-third

(approx. 6,000 t) by the end of 2015.[KunststoffWeb GmbH, Bad Homburg]

The Moscow Holding "Kompozit" and state atomic energy group RosAtom

want to build and operate a plant in the special economic zone of Alabuga

near Yelabuga with a capacity of 1,500 tonnes p.a. by the end of 2013.[plasticker]

Taekwang Industrial Co Ltd (Ulsan/South Korea) started CF production in

March 2012. A total of € 100 million have been invested in the project to make

the country less dependent on CF imports.[KunststoffWeb GmbH, Bad Homburg]

Hyosung aims to put its first commercial CF production plant into operation

(small tow <48k / 2000 tonnes p.a.) in the city of Jeonju/South Korea at the

beginning of 2013.[Hyosung]

Kemrock Industries and Exports Ltd. in Vadodara/India, Gujarat, opened a CF

plant with an annual production capacity of 400 t in 2011.[Kemrock/Press Release]

Zoltek Corp. is investing a further US$ 15 million in setting up a research facili-

ty in St. Peters Missouri / USA.[AreaDevelopment]

Hohhot Haoyuan Carbon Fiber Co. Ltd (Inner Mongolia / China) plans to in-

vest around US$ 2 billion in the production of carbon fibre. No information re-

garding capacity or planned production start-up is yet known.[KI - Branchen-Ticker im Kun-

ststoffWeb]


Fig. 2: Carbon fibre capacities itemised by manufacturer (2011) in t

according to information provided by [MTP],[SGLG],[TohoT],[TEJL]

In 2011, theoretical total global capacity was around 90,000 t of carbon fibre. The

USA has the greatest installed CF capacity with around 29% of world production. Eu-

rope and Japan together account for approx. 50% and China approx. 8% of global

output. Analysts predict that Chinese production will expand considerably over the

coming years.

Fig. 3: CF capacity by region (2011) [MTP]


The global carbon composites market

As the vast majority of carbon fibre produced (over 98%) is processed into composite

materials of all types, the carbon composite market develops at the same pace as

the CF market. The tonnage of CRP is naturally much higher, however, due to the

addition of the matrix component.

Carbon composites: Market data and developments in 2011

95% of the CF used in composite materials is processed into carbon fibre reinforced

plastic (CRP). The rest is used in composites with matrices based on carbon, ceram-

ic or metal. These materials are used in special applications, such as aircraft or vehi-

cle brake discs.

Fig. 4: Global demand for CRP in tonnes 2008-2020 (*estimates)

A variety of different production processes are used in the manufacture of CRP mate-

rials/components. These are required for processing the various semi-finished fibre

products. Prepregs continue to dominate in the production of CRP parts. Around 54%

of the carbon fibre produced world-wide is used for manufacturing prepregs, of which

42% are based on unidirectional fabrics and 12% on woven fabrics. 5% of carbon

fibre is used to make semi-finished products such as fabrics, braids etc., which are in


turn used to make CRP parts via an infiltration process (e.g. RTM). The winding (ap-

prox. 15%) and pultrusion (approx. 8%) processes are also important techniques in

CRP production. Here the fibres are used in the form of yarns.

Fig. 5: Market shares of the manufacturing processes / Semi-finished products for CRP (2011) [MTP]

18% of the carbon fibre used globally for CRP in 2011 was in the form of short cut

(approx. ¾ of the quantity) or milled fibre (approx. ¼ of the quantity). 92% of the total

short cut and milled fibre was used to manufacture reinforced plastic compounds.

The remaining 8% was shared between applications in sheet moulding compound

(SMC), paper, the construction industry and the generation of conductivity in a variety

of products (e.g. heated car seats).


Fig. 6: Use of short cut and milled fibre by application (2011) [MTP]

The majority of CF reinforced compounds are used in electronic devices such as lap-

tops, printers, office equipment etc. The principal application of milled fibre (approx.

90%) is in plastic compounds used in manufacturing chip carriers.

Fig. 7: Compound consumption by application (2011) [MTP]

The most important use (23%) of CRP is in rotor blades for wind turbines. 77% of the

carbon fibre used here is as UD prepreg, 20% as pultrusion material and approx. 3%

as fabric.


In the aerospace sector (16%), aircraft construction dominates with approx. 11% of

CRP consumption, of which approx. 8% is used in civil aviation. The use of CRP ma-

terials in space applications accounts for 1% and thus plays only a minor role. The

remaining 4% in this sector are used in special applications such as engines, tools

etc.

In the area of sport and leisure (also 16%), CRP is primarily used in golf clubs and

tennis racquets, bicycles and fishing rods (12%). The remaining 4% are used in

products such as boats and sticks/bats/clubs for other sports (such as hockey).

Fig. 8: Global CRP consumption by application (2011) [MTP]

The construction industry accounted for 9% of CRP demand in 2011. However, its

use in this sector is forecasted to grow 132% by 2020. [MTP]

In 2011, 44% of the CRP consumed in the construction sector was used for reinforc-

ing concrete. 37% was used in the restoration of bridges and tunnels, 10% in new

buildings and 9% in other construction works.

In the construction industry, 58% of the CRP used was consumed as reinforcing fab-

ric, 22% as pultrusion material (struts and strips), 19% as UD prepregs (UD tape)

and 1% as short cut fibre.


Currently, the use of CRP in automobile construction is relatively low at 6%. Howev-

er, with BMW's entry into the market (Megacity Vehicle) and the advances made in

series production of CRP parts, growth rates are much higher here than in other sec-

tors.

In the area of pressure tanks (total of 6%), 3% of CRP is used for compressed natu-

ral gas (CNG) tanks. These are mostly used in automobiles. The remaining 3% is

used in other pressurised storage vessels.

Trends and outlook

Analysts see the CRP as solid and above all a market with high growth potential. The

consensus is for growth of at least 13% annually. This growth is due to a number of

factors:

In 2011, the order books of the aviation industry returned almost to the levels they

achieved before the economic crisis of 2008. Orders for new aircraft are forecast to

grow significantly over the next 20 years. Between 2011 and 2030, Airbus anticipates

a market volume of 27,800 [MTP/Airbus-GMF] and Boeing 33,500 new aircraft [MTP/Boeing-CMO].

In the civil aviation sector, passenger numbers are expected to grow by 5.1% per

year. If this continues until 2030, the fleets of the world's airlines will more than dou-

ble in size. Single aisle aircraft, such as the A320-Neo or Boeing 737-Max, would

account for 70% of the fleet. [MTP/Boeing-CMO] However, the proportion of CRP used in these

aircraft is much smaller than in the new Boeing 786 and Airbus A340 wide-body air-

craft.

In the aviation industry, the major influence on the CRP market is currently through

market developments in the wide-body aircraft of the Airbus A350 family and

Boeing's 787 range. Based on analyst estimates, it is anticipated that approx. 9,000 t

of carbon fibre will be used in wide-body aircraft in 2020. [MTP]


Fig. 9: CF consumption in wide-body aircraft [MTP]

(* estimates)

The automobile industry is seen as one of the most important drivers for the CRP

market. Taking consumption of approx. 2,000 t of CRP in 2010 as their base, con-

servative analysts are forecasting annual growth of 15% for the sector. However,

from 2013, this could be much higher depending on the success of the electric vehi-

cles scheduled for launch.

Lightweight construction is not only paramount in the electric vehicle sector. It applies

equally to vehicles with conventional combustion engines. From 2015, European ve-

hicle manufacturers must reduce the average CO2 emissions of their fleets to under

95g/km. Fines averaging € 4,000 per vehicle are being discussed for transgressions

of this limit. [Vogel Busines Media].

Lightweight construction is one of the ways that manufacturers can achieve compli-

ance with legally-binding environmental standards. Even if only a few percent of each

vehicle were manufactured from CRP, automobile construction would consume ap-

prox. 75% of carbon fibre production (given the right conditions) by 2030. However,

this would require a dramatic reduction in the manufacturing costs of CRP compo-

nents. The cost of CRP used in vehicles is currently approx. 70 €/kg. This contrasts

starkly with 3 €/kg for steel, approx. 6 €/kg for high strength steel and 7 €/kg for alu-

minium.


Fig. 10: CF consumption in automobile construction (not incl. CNG tanks) [MTP]

(* estimates)

In the area of transport and traffic, constantly rising energy costs over recent years

have led to a significant number of users switching to lower cost fuels such as natural

gas. Since 2000, the market for vehicles running on natural gas has grown rapidly.

Around 11.4 million of the approx. 880 million vehicles on the world's roads are now

powered by natural gas. Annual growth of around 30% is forecast over the next ten

years.

Fig. 11: CNG vehicles / annual new registrations [MTP]


In vehicles, the gas is stored at high pressure in special pressure tanks. Until now,

most of these have been made from steel. However, these substantially increase the

weight of the vehicle and therefore also fuel consumption and CO2 emissions per

kilometre, which need to be reduced.

Further increases in energy prices as well as projects such as "power-to-gas“ (con-

verting electricity from renewable sources into hydrogen or methane), in which re-

search institutes, industry and OEMs are working together closely, mean that CNG

(compressed natural gas) pressure tanks made from CRP will play an important role

in the CRP market.

In 2011, approx. 1,540 t of carbon fibre were processed in this area; by 2020 this fig-

ure is expected to rise to approx. 7,480 t.[MTP] This forecast does not take into account

current “power-to-gas” projects. If only a fraction of these projects should prove suc-

cessful, it is quite possible that the assumed quantity of carbon fibre used in this sec-

tor could double.

Fig. 12: CF demand for CNG pressure tanks [MTP]

(* estimates)

The wind turbine blade market, currently the most important volume market for CRP,

grew by around 23% in 2011. By 2015, annual carbon fibre demand in the wind tur-

bine industry is expected to be approx. 22,700 t and in 2020 around 54,270 t.[MTP]


Ever larger wind turbines (up to 10 MW) and correspondingly longer rotor blades (up

to 100m) will play their part in achieving this growth forecast. According to a study by

the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), wind energy capacity will triple in

the 27 countries of the EU by 2020 - when approx. 581 TWh will be fed into the Eu-

ropean power grids compared with today's 182 TWh. By 2030, this figure is anticipat-

ed to rise to 1154 TWh.

Analysts expect stable growth in demand for short cut and milled carbon fibre of

around 7 to 8% over the coming years so that a total of approx. 14,000 to 16,000 t

could be required by 2020.[MTP] In the past, this market segment has also often been

served by small bobbin or yarn material, depending on the application, that has not

met the manufacturer's specifications. When yarn has been in short supply, it has

often been impossible to find enough material for this market. In some cases, this

has led to dissatisfaction among processors. The significant expansion of capacity

discussed at the beginning of this market report should go some way towards reliev-

ing this situation. In the future, recycled materials increasingly provided by the up-

and-coming recycling industry (e.g. CFK Valley Recycling GmbH-Deutschland, ELG

Carbon Fibre Ltd/UK, etc.) could also be used more widely.

Final observations

In 2011, the global composites market was valued at € 72 billion. Assuming an annu-

al growth rate of around 6%, the market volume is estimated to reach € 91 billion by

2015. A growth rate of 13%[JEC], or 17%[McKinsey] is expected for the CRP market, which

represents only a small part of the composites market.

There has long been a consensus in society that there must be a greater focus on

conservation of resources and raw materials. Energy use is one of the key considera-

tions here. The potential of high performance fibre composites in lightweight con-

struction will make an important contribution to increasing energy efficiency and cer-

tainly offers many opportunities whether in generating, consuming or storing energy.


The durability and long life of CRP and its ability to be combined with traditional

lightweight materials will open the way to additional fields of application. In the area

of lightweight construction, the search is on for intelligent methods of combining and

integrating steel and CRP. This could lead to ecologically and economically viable

material combinations.

Urban mobility that conserves resources is one of the megatrends of the coming

years.[Vortrag Hoster, CCeV Automotive Forum 2012] Lightweight construction will be paramount for most

means of transport. Weight savings contribute to both increasing efficiency and re-

ducing costs. Here, too, the outstanding potential of CRP becomes immediately ap-

parent when it is weighed against all other materials. Optimally designed parts that

efficiently exploit the properties of CRP can be 70% lighter than steel and 30% lighter

than aluminium. [CCeV],[SGLG]

However, tangible ecological and economic benefits can only be achieved if light-

weight construction is used on a large scale. Mass production of CRP parts and the

associated automation of manufacturing processes are essential if this goal is to be

achieved. This, above all, is the key to the large scale use of CRP components in the

automobile industry. CRP with thermoplastic matrix components will probably play an

important role in this process. Partnerships/joint ventures between well-known auto-

mobile manufacturers (Audi, BMW, Daimler, Toyota and VW) and the CF industry

show that there is now both a recognition of the necessity to investigate the opportu-

nities of CRP materials in detail and the will to do so. [MTP]

Price-performance ratios will decide which materials and combinations of materials

will be adopted in the various applications. In the future, the ecological rather than

the economic aspects should be the decisive factor. Objective life cycle analyses

(LCAs) for the various classes and combinations of materials and their consistent use

therefore present a further challenge for the future.


Literature

[MTP] Materials Technology Publications: The Carbon Fiber Industry world-wide 2011-2020

[SGLG] SGL Group - Carbon Fibers & Composites-Ascent to Industrial Engi-neering Materials - Bayern Innovativ 05.05.2011

[TEJL] Teijin Limited: Flash Report FY09 - Financial Performance &FY10 Out-look - May 10, 2010

[TohoT] TohoTenax Europe GmbH: Kohlenstofffaserverstärkte Thermoplaste für Strukturbauteile in der Luftfahrtindustrie (Carbon fibre reinforced ther-moplastics for structural components in the aviation industry) - thermo-comp, 06.2011

[Toray] Toray International Europe GmbH: KunststoffWeb Druckdatum: 27.03.2012 08:45:36 (Ref: 1047273518)

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