Software development in Formula One: challenges, complexity and struggle for excellence
Complexity Challenges to the Discovery of Relationships in...
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Complexity Challenges to the Discovery of Relationships in Eddy Current Non-destructive Test Data
CPT John R. BrenceUnited States Military Academy
Donald E. Brown, PhDUniversity of Virginia
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2Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Outline
• Background Information• Eddy Current Non-destructive Tests (NDT)• Approach• Algorithms• Results • Interpretation of Results• Conclusions• Future Research• Questions
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3Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Background1 of 2
• Many commercial & military aircraft reached or exceeded original design life– USAF aircraft 20-35+ years old– KC-135 (40 yrs. old) extended for 25 years– Civilian airlines Boeing 727 family – Introduced in
60’s
• Corrosion is a serious threat especially to older aircraft– Significant increase in maintenance costs– Increasing concern about structural integrity
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4Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
BackgroundAloha Flight 243
2 of 2
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5Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Relationship Hypothesis1 of 2
• Relationship between calibration specimen results & classifying corrosion on KC-135 parts
• Current artificial corrosion processes show similar characteristics as those found in naturally corroded lap joints
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6Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Relationship Hypothesis2 of 2
Natural Corrosion(KC-135 Specimen)
Artificial Corrosion(Calibration Specimen)
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7Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Eddy Current Non-destructive Tests
• Problems with current visual representation– Requires considerable expertise to create and
interpret– Need for visual clarity leads to data generalization,
averaging, or overlooked points ~ accuracy?– Missed corrosion may cause a catastrophic accident
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8Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachOutline
• Data acquisition• Data transformation & consistency• Model development & feature selection• Model training & testing • Model Evaluation• Model Selection
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9Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachGraphic
DatatransformationData acquisition Consistent
Data
No
Datamining
Modelselection
Model development
Model testing& evaluation
Iterate
YesFeatureselection
Variabletransform
DatatransformationData acquisition Consistent
Data
No
Datamining
Modelselection
Model development
Model testing& evaluation
Iterate
YesFeatureselectionFeatureselection
Variabletransform
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10Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachData Acquisition
• Institute of Aerospace Research
– Calibration specimens– Retired KC-135 specimens
• Data
– Induced Voltage measurements from multi-frequency scans– Calibration specimen E1
n
m
1
Scan Direction
nm
n
m
1
Scan DirectionScan Direction
nm
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11Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachData Transformation & Consistency
1 of 5
Eddy Current Specimen E1 data
– 4 different scan frequencies are the 4 predictor variables (5.5 kHz, 8 kHz, 17 kHz, & 30 kHz)
– Merged 4 scan frequency files into one file
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12Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachData Transformation & Consistency
2 of 5
5.5 kHz 8 kHz
17 kHz 30 kHz
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13Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachData Transformation & Consistency
3 of 5
Image20
Image60
Finagle
Image25
Results from PicView Program
Starred areas show whichpicture is used to model specific loss area.
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14Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachData Transformation & Consistency
4 of 5
Specimen E1: EC Bitmap ≠ data set
0%5%7.5%10%
12.5%
15%
17.5%
40% 35% 30%
45% 50% 27.5%
22.5%20% 25%
Specimen E1: EC data set format
10%12.5%15%17.5%
20%
22.5%
25%
45% 40% 7.5%
50% 35% 5%
30%27.5% 0%
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15Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachData Transformation & Consistency
5 of 5Eddy Current Sensitivity to Milled Thickness Loss
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
percent material removed
5.5 kHz
8 kHz
17 kHz
30 kHz
Specimen E1, Eddy Current Scan Data Mapping Validation
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
percent material loss (%)av
erag
e vo
ltage
resp
onse
(V)
5.5 kHz (k5)8 kHz (k8)17 kHz (k17)30 kHz (k30)
Graph resulting fromdata transformationGraph from original study
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16Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachModel Development & Feature Selection
• Eddy Current– Four predictors and one response variable– Looked at histograms of variables to categorize
the observation’s distribution – Used scaling and transformations of predictors
• Feature Selection (E.G., regression)– Stepwise, Forward, Backward selection– Maximum R2
adj, Mallows CP
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17Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachModel Training & Testing
• Calibration specimen data used for training ~ Eddy Current specimen E1
• Training and Test data configuration (in general)
– 75% training (120,456 observations)– 25% test (40,152 observations)
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18Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachModel Training Evaluation
• Akaike Information Criterion• Schwartz Criterion• Coefficient of multiple determination (R2)• Adjusted R2
• Mallows Cp• Mean Absolute Error• Mean Squared Error
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19Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
ApproachModel Selection
Selection of best modeling methodology based on root mean squared error calculation on test set
( )2
1
1 ∑=
−=N
jjSETTEST yy
NMSE
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20Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Algorithms1 of 4
Multiple Regression
Considered polynomial, interaction, and transformed terms
ipipiii XXXY εββββ +++++= −− 1,12,21,10 ...
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21Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Algorithms2 of 4
Regression TreesLeast Squares example
Y Mean Value = 15Std dev = 0.425
Y Mean Value = 45Std dev = 0.334
Y Mean Value = 35Std dev = 0.401
Y Mean Value = 22.5Std dev = 0.396
Y Mean Value = 7.5Std dev = 0.297
Y Mean Value = 5Std dev = 0.185
Y Mean Value = 15Std dev = 0.501
Is k5 ≤ 1.16
Y Mean Value = 12.5Std dev = 0.446
Y Mean Value = 30Std dev = 0.420
YES NO
Is k8 ≤ 0.85 Is k17 ≥ 0.42YES NO YES NO
Is k30 ≤ 0.25YES NO
Y Mean Value = 15Std dev = 0.425
Y Mean Value = 45Std dev = 0.334
Y Mean Value = 35Std dev = 0.401
Y Mean Value = 22.5Std dev = 0.396
Y Mean Value = 7.5Std dev = 0.297
Y Mean Value = 5Std dev = 0.185
Y Mean Value = 15Std dev = 0.501
Is k5 ≤ 1.16
Y Mean Value = 12.5Std dev = 0.446
Y Mean Value = 30Std dev = 0.420
YES NO
Is k8 ≤ 0.85 Is k17 ≥ 0.42YES NO YES NO
Is k30 ≤ 0.25YES NO
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22Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Algorithms3 of 4
Polynomial Networks
Doublet
Input A
Input B
Input C
Input D
Triplet
Single
Doublet
Normalizers
1st Layer
2d Layer
3d Layer
Unitizers
Output
Doublet
Input A
Input B
Input C
Input D
Triplet
Single
Doublet
Normalizers
1st Layer
2d Layer
3d Layer
Unitizers
Output
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23Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Algorithms4 of 4
Ordinal Logistic Regression
1
0
P(Y≤ j)
P(Y≤ 2)
P(Y≤ 3)P(Y≤ 1)
Predictor Value(s)
1
0
P(Y≤ j)
P(Y≤ 2)
P(Y≤ 3)P(Y≤ 1)
1
0
P(Y≤ j)
P(Y≤ 2)
P(Y≤ 3)P(Y≤ 1)
Predictor Value(s)
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24Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Results Multiple Regression
1 of 7
• The more complex the model, the better it did with both training and test datasets
• Best model incorporated transformed 4th
order polynomial and interaction terms
• Problem ~ Heteroscedasticity(non-constant variance)
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25Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Results Regression Trees
2 of 7
• Program limitations for data size – 60,000 observation training dataset– 60,000 observation test dataset
• Least squares tree tested 2611 trees
• Least absolute deviation tested 172 trees
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26Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Results Regression Trees
3 of 7
• Least absolute deviation regression tree was the best
– Fewer nodes 819 vs. 1857– Smaller Complexity value: –1.0 vs 37.6– Smaller Root MSE for test set
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27Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Results Regression Trees
4 of 7
Least Squares Regression Tree
Least Absolute Deviation Regression Tree
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28Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Results Polynomial Networks
5 of 7
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29Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Results Ordinal Logistic Regression
6 of 7
• The more complex the model, the better it did with both training and test datasets
• Best model incorporated transformed 4th
order polynomial and interaction terms
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30Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Results Model Selection
7 of 7
RT MSE VAR5.388 29.0305.610 31.4684.872 23.7390.566 0.320LAD Regression Tree
ModelOverall Model Comparision by Test Set
Multiple Regression Model 8Logistic Regression Model 8
Polynomial Network
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31Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Interpretation of ResultsMore Complex = Better Model
1 of 3
x1
x2
Stitching Effect
Y=0 Y=1 Y=2 Y=4
x1
x2
Stitching Effect
Y=0 Y=1 Y=2 Y=4
Dataset requirescomplex parametric models
Or
Non-parametric models
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32Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Interpretation of ResultsMore Complex = Better Model
2 of 3
STITCHINGEFFECT
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33Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Interpretation of ResultsWhy LAD RT does well
3 of 3
LAD regression tree does well because:
– Robust in presence of heteroscedasticity
– Partitioning provides for improved accuracy
– Uses “stitching” to capture nonlinearities
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34Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Conclusions1 of 2
Maintenance Operations
– Showed that an algorithm can be developed to assist operators in maintenance decisions
– Showed how to transform and clean the eddy current data for analysis
– Provided a basis for choosing among competing algorithms for actual implementation
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35Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Conclusions2 of 2
Methodological
– Provided a formal approach for comparing different data mining techniques on real corrosion data
– Showed that real data sets can produce highly complex relationships (contrast with Ockham’srazor) and that models can be found to handle these complexities
– Demonstrated the power of tree-based methods to treat nonlinearities in the data through “stitching”, which was formerly thought to be a disadvantage
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36Complexity Challenges in Eddy Current NDT Data
Future Research• Classification algorithms
• If time-lapse available ~ time series analysis
• Spatial models (correlation between corrosion areas)
• Other non-parametric techniques
• Application of a “known” naturally corroded specimen as test dataset
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Questions ?
NASA’s “Vomit Comet”