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Transcript of Completion and Attrition: Program Baseline Data CGS Annual Meeting Pre-Meeting Workshop December 5,...
Completion and Attrition: Program
Baseline Data
CGS Annual MeetingPre-Meeting Workshop
December 5, 2007
Robert SowellTing Zhang
Ph.D. Completion Project Overview
Goals:• To study doctoral student completion and
attrition patterns at a specifically selected set of Research and Project Partners.
• To give deans context to lead conversations about what attrition and completion patterns actually are at their universities, and what practices could be implemented to improve these patterns.
• To empower graduate deans to develop interventions that are tailored to disciplines, departments, and programs at their universities.
Project Overview, Continued
Funding provided by Pfizer Inc and the Ford Foundation
29 Research Partner institutions received grants
25 Project Partner institutions are currently participating in various project aspects (unfunded)
Institutions participate in one or both project phases: • Phase I (2004-2007)• Phase II (2007-2010)
Phase I Research and Project Partners (Part I) Arizona State University*
University of California—Berkeley
University of California—Los Angeles*
University of Cincinnati* University of Colorado—
Boulder Cornell University* Duke University* University of Florida* Florida State University* Fordham University* George Washington
University University of Georgia*
* Submitted Data
Howard University* University of Iowa* University of Illinois—
Urbana Champaign* Jackson State
University University of Kansas Louisiana State
University University of
Louisville* Marquette University* University of Maryland
—Baltimore County* McGill University University of
Melbourne (Australia)
University of Michigan* Michigan State University University of Minnesota University of Missouri—
Columbia* Université de Montréal* New Mexico State University New York University* University of North Carolina
—Chapel Hill* North Carolina State
University* North Dakota State
University University of Notre Dame* Pennsylvania State
University*
Phase I Research and Project Partners (Part II) Princeton University*
University of Puerto Rico Purdue University* University of Rhode Island Rutgers-New Brunswick* University of Southern California Southern Illinois University—Carbondale* Syracuse University Washington University—St. Louis* Western Michigan University* Yale University** Submitted Data
Arizona State University
University of Arkansas Brown University University of California
—Berkeley University of California
—Los Angeles University of California
—San Diego University of Cincinnati Colorado State
University Cornell University Duke University
Phase II Research and Project Partners (Part I)
University of Florida Florida State
University University of Georgia Howard University University of Illinois—
Urbana Champaign University of Kansas University of Louisville Loyola University
Chicago Marquette University
University of Maryland—Baltimore County
McMaster University University of Michigan Michigan State University University of Missouri—
Columbia University of North
Carolina—Chapel Hill North Carolina State
University Northwestern University Ohio State University Pennsylvania State
University
Phase II Research and Project Partners (Part II)
Princeton University Purdue University University of Rhode
Island Rutgers—New
Brunswick University of
Southern California Syracuse University Washington
University—St. Louis Yale University
Categories of Potential Interventions
Selection/Matching Mentoring and Advising Financial Support and Structure Program Environments Research Experiences Curricular and Administrative
Processes and Procedures
Data Requirements
Aggregate demographic completion data by broad field
Factor assessments for each institution and program
Student Exit Surveys• Short and standard versions• Available as hard copy and online
Completion and attrition data by program
Completion Template - Data Entry
Entering student
academic year cohort*
Number of entering doctoral students
Number of students who left program
after receving master's degree
Number of students
admitted to PhD
candidacy**
3 years
[ ≤ 3Years ]
4 years
[ > 3 ≤ 4 Years ]
5 years
[ > 4 ≤ 5 Years ]
6 years
[ > 5 ≤ 6 Years ]
7 years
[ > 6 ≤ 7 Years ]
8 years
[ > 7 ≤ 8 Years ]
9 years
[ > 8 ≤ 9 Years ]
10 years
[ > 9 ≤ 10 Years ]
Number who are still
enrolled after 10 years
Number of students
admitted to candidacy is ≤ cohort size
Number of degrees + continuing
after candidacy is
≤ total admitted to candidacy A
ttriti
on c
heck
from
A
dmis
sion
***
Attr
ition
che
ck a
fter
cand
idac
y **
*
1992-93 TRUE TRUE 0 0
1993-94 TRUE TRUE 0 0
1994-95 TRUE TRUE 0 0
1995-96 TRUE TRUE 0 0
1996-97 TRUE TRUE 0 0
1997-98 TRUE TRUE 0 0
1998-99 TRUE TRUE 0 0
1999-2000 TRUE TRUE 0 0
2000-01 TRUE TRUE 0 0
2001-02 TRUE TRUE 0 0
2002-03 TRUE TRUE 0 0
2003-04 TRUE TRUE 0 0
2004-05 TRUE
2005-06 TRUE
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TRUE TRUE 0 0
Number who completed within given number of years after enrollingData Verifications- Not for Analysis -
Of those admitted to PhD candidacy**:
Completion Template - Data Entry
Completion & Attrition – Data Verification
The "Attrition Check" columns include continuing students. These columns indicate the numbers of students who must be accounted for on the Attrition Template.
Attrition Template - Data Definitions
Years 1-4: Without MA: Withdrawal without
receiving a master's degree from the program
With MA: Withdrawal with completed master's degree without candidacy
With Candidacy: Withdrawal after achieving candidacy, with or without a master's degree
Transfer
Attrition Template - Data Entry
After Enrollment
CohortCohort
Size
Wit
ho
ut
MA
Wit
h M
A -
wit
ho
ut
C
Wit
h C
an
did
ac
y
Tra
ns
fer
Ou
t
Sto
p O
ut
Ph
.D.
De
gre
e
Co
nti
nu
ing
Info
Un
kn
ow
n
Wit
ho
ut
MA
Wit
h M
A -
wit
ho
ut
C
Wit
h C
an
did
ac
y
Tra
ns
fer
Ou
t
Sto
p O
ut
Ph
.D.
De
gre
e
Co
nti
nu
ing
Info
Un
kn
ow
n
Wit
ho
ut
MA
Wit
h M
A -
wit
ho
ut
C
Wit
h C
an
did
ac
y
Tra
ns
fer
Ou
t
Sto
p O
ut
Ph
.D.
De
gre
e
Co
nti
nu
ing
Info
Un
kn
ow
n
Wit
ho
ut
MA
Wit
h M
A -
wit
ho
ut
C
Wit
h C
an
did
ac
y
Tra
ns
fer
Ou
t
Sto
p O
ut
Ph
.D.
De
gre
e
Co
nti
nu
ing
Info
Un
kn
ow
n
Wit
hd
rew
Tra
ns
fer
Ou
t
Sto
p O
ut
Ph
.D.
De
gre
e
Co
nti
nu
ing
Info
Un
kn
ow
n
92-93 0 0 0 0 0 0
93-94 0 0 0 0 0 0
94-95 0 0 0 0 0 0
95-96 0 0 0 0 0 0
96-97 0 0 0 0 0 0
97-98 0 0 0 0 0 0
98-99 0 0 0 0 0 0
99-00 0 0 0 0 0 0
00-01 0 0 0 0 0 0
01-02 0 0 0 0 0 0
02-03 0 0 0 0 0
03-04 0 0 0 0
04-05 0 0 0
05-06 0 0
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Year 5 [ > 4 ≤ 5 ]Year 1 [ ≤ 1 Year ] Year 2 [ > 1 ≤ 2 Years ] Year 3 [ > 2 ≤ 3 ] Year 4 [ > 3 ≤ 4 ]
0Annual Total 0 0 0 0
Attrition Template - Data Entry
Number of Programs and Entering Students by Broad
Field# of
Programs
# of EnteringStudents
Engineering 54 9,496
Life Sciences 66 6,925
Math & Physical Sciences
78 15,262
Social Sciences 65 9,671
Humanities 67 7,759
All Fields Total 330 49,113
Cohort Definitions for Baseline Data Analysis
A-Cohorts (10-year cohorts)• Students enrolling in 1992-93; 1993-94;
1994-95• 12,135 students (313 programs)
B-Cohorts (7-year cohorts)• Students enrolling in 1995-96; 1996-97;
1997-98• 11,697 students (320 programs)
C-Cohorts (4-year cohorts)• Students enrolling in 1998-99; 1999-2000;
2000-01• 12,125 students (323 programs)
New CGS Publication
Ph.D. Completion and Attrition: Analysis of
Baseline Program Data from the Ph.D.
Completion Project
Completion Rates The following completion graphs show
average cumulative 10-year completion rates for A-Cohorts (students entering doctoral study from 1992-93 through 1994-95).
Rates shown by:• Overall• Broad field• Discipline • Institution type (public vs. private)• Cohort size• Entering cohorts
Average Overall Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering Doctoral Programs from
1992-93 through 1994-95
4.5
10.5
22.5
36.1
45.5
50.9
54.656.6
020
4060
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
om
ple
tio
n R
ate
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Completion Rates for SEM and SSH Students Entering from 1992-
93 through 1994-950
1020
3040
5060
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Co
mp
leti
on
Ra
te
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
SEM SSH
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering
from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Broad Field
010
2030
4050
6070
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Co
mp
leti
on
Ra
te
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Engineering Life Sciences
Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences
Humanities
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
56.8
53.7
48.2
40.9
29.3
63.662.9
55.954.7
49.3
Ten-Year Completion Rates for Life Science Students Entering from 1992-
93 through 1994-950
1020
3040
5060
70C
um
ula
tive
Co
mp
leti
on
Rat
e
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Biology Genetics, Molecular Genetics
Microbiology and Immunology Molecular and Cellular Biology
Neuroscience
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Completion Rates by Institution Type for Students Entering from 1992-93 through
1994-950
1020
3040
5060
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
om
ple
tio
n R
ate
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Private Public
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering from
1992-93 through 1994-95, by Institution Type and Broad Field
02
04
06
0
02
04
06
0
02
04
06
0
02
04
06
0
020
4060
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10
Engineering Life Sciences Math & Physical Sciences
Social Sciences Humanities
Private Public
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
om
ple
tio
n R
ates
Year
Graphs by BFSource: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Completion Rates by Cohort Size for Students Entering from 1992-93
through 1994-950
1020
3040
5060
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
om
ple
tio
n R
ate
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Small Medium
Large
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Small: 1-7Medium: 8-14Large: 15+
Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering
from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Cohort Size and Broad Field
020
4060
020
4060
020
4060
020
4060
020
4060
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10
2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10
Engineering Life Sciences Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Social Sciences Humanities
Small Medium
Large
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
om
ple
tio
n R
ates
Year
Graphs by BFSource: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Small: 1-7Medium: 8-14Large: 15+
Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Enteringfrom 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Discipline-
Specific Cohort Size Distributions in Chemistry vs. Computer & Information Sciences
01
02
03
04
050
60C
um
ula
tive
Co
mp
leti
on
Rat
e
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Small Medium
Large
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
01
02
03
04
05
0C
um
ula
tive
Co
mp
leti
on
Rat
e3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year
Small Medium
Large
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Chemistry Computer & Information Sciences
Small: 4-10 Medium:12-23Large: 25-55
Small: 2-15Medium:16-26Large: 31-78
Comparison of Seven-Year Completion Rates
between A- and B- Cohorts, SEM vs. SSH Fields
35.7
35.8
50.6
51.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Cumulative Completion Rate
SSH Fields
SEM Fields
NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
A-cohorts B-cohorts
Comparison of Seven-Year Completion Rates
between A- and B- Cohorts, by Broad Field
30.5
29.3
40.2
40.9
47.5
48.2
53.2
53.7
53.9
56.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Cumulative Completion Rate
Humanities
Social Sciences
Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Life Sciences
Engineering
NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
A-cohorts B-cohorts
Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Attrition Rates The following attrition graphs show
average cumulative 10-year attrition rates for A-Cohorts (students entering doctoral study from 1992-93 through 1994-95).
Rates shown by:• Overall• Broad field• Discipline • Institution type (public vs. private)• Cohort size
Ten-Year Attrition Rates for StudentsEntering from 1992-93 through 1994-
95
6.6
13.8
19.9
23.6
25.427.0
28.429.5
30.2 30.60
1020
30C
um
ula
tive
Att
riti
on
Rat
e
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Students Entering
from 1992-93 through 1994-95, SEM vs. SSH Fields
510
1520
2530
35C
um
ula
tive
Att
riti
on
Rat
e
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
SEM SSH
NOTE: 10-Year attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-year Attrition Rates for Students Entering
from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Broad Field
510
1520
2530
3540
Cu
mu
lati
ve A
ttri
tio
n R
ate
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Engineering Life Sciences
Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences
Humanities
NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Students Entering
Social Sciences Disciplines from 1992-93 through 1994-950
510
1520
2530
3540
Cu
mu
lati
ve A
ttri
tio
n R
ate
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Anthropology and Archaeology Communications
Economics Political Science
Psychology Sociology
NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Student Entering
from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Institution Type
05
1015
2025
3035
Cu
mu
lati
ve A
ttri
tio
n R
ate
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Private Public
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Students Entering from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Institution
Type and Broad Field0
10
20
30
01
02
03
0
01
02
03
04
0
01
02
030
01
02
03
0
0 5 10 0 5 10 0 5 10
0 5 10 0 5 10
Engineering Life Sciences Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Social Sciences Humanities
Private Public
Cu
mu
lati
ve A
ttri
tio
n R
ate
s
Year
Graphs by BFSource: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Students Entering
from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Cohort Size
010
2030
Cu
mu
lati
ve A
ttri
tio
n R
ate
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10year
Small Medium
Large
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Small: 1-7Medium: 8-14Large: 15+
Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Students Entering from
1992-93 through 1994-95, by Cohort Sizes and Broad Field
01
02
03
0
01
02
03
0
10
20
30
40
01
02
03
04
0
01
02
03
04
0
0 5 10 0 5 10 0 5 10
0 5 10 0 5 10
Engineering Life Sciences Mathematics & Physical Sciences
Social Sciences Humanities
Small Medium
Large
Cu
mu
lati
ve A
ttri
tio
n R
ate
s
Year
Graphs by BFSource: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Small: 1-7Medium: 8-14Large: 15+
Cumulative Ten-Year Attrition Rates for A-Cohorts in Engineering (except Electrical Engineering), by
Cohort Sizes and Year0
510
1520
25C
um
ula
tive
Att
riti
on
Rat
e
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10year
Small Medium
Large
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Small: 1-7Medium: 8-14Large: 15-51
Regular Cohort Size Definition
05
1015
2025
Cu
mu
lati
ve A
ttri
tio
n R
ate
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10year
Small Medium
Large
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Small: 1-6Medium: 7-13Large: 14-51
Discipline-specific Cohort Size Definition
Early Attrition (Years 1-4)
The following three attrition graphs show 4-year attrition rates for:• A-Cohorts (1992-93 through 1994-95)• B-Cohorts (1995-96 through 1997-98)• C-Cohorts (1998-99 through 2000-01)
Early Attrition (Years 1-4) Ratesfor A-, B- and C-Cohorts
20.2
24.2
23.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Attrition Rate
NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
A B
C
Early Attrition (Years 1-4) Ratesfor A-, B- and C-Cohorts by Broad Fields
16.6
20.2
19.3
22.0
26.6
26.5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Attrition Rate
SSH Fields
SEM Fields
NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
A B
C
Components of Early Attrition (Years 1-4)
02
46
8P
erce
nt
Att
riti
on
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
A B C A B C A B C A B C
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program DataNOTE: A-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01
No Master's Master's, No CandidacyMaster's, With Candidacy Transferred
Continuing Students The following four graphs show
continuing student rates, completion rates and attrition rates for • Ten-Year rates for A Cohorts
SEM vs. SSH Five broad fields
• Four-Year rates for each entering cohort from 1992-93 through 2000-01
020
4060
8010
0C
um
ula
tive
Rat
es %
SEM Fields Social Sciences & Humanities
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Note: 10-Year Cohorts include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Continuing Completion Attrition
Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates for Students Entering from 1992-93 through
1994-95, SEM vs. SSH
Four-Year Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates for A-, B- and
C-Cohorts
72.7 7.1 20.2
67.5 8.3 24.2
65.9 10.5 23.6
0 20 40 60 80 100Rates
C
B
A
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Continuing Completion Attrition
Four-Year Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates by Cohort Year
75.0 6.5 18.5
73.0 6.8 20.2
70.1 8.1 21.9
68.5 8.6 22.9
66.6 8.1 25.2
67.3 8.2 24.4
66.5 8.8 24.6
67.5 9.0 23.5
63.8 13.4 22.8
0 20 40 60 80 100Rates
2000-01
1999-2000
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
1992-93
Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Continuing Completion Attrition
Future Questions to be Addressed in the Ph.D.
Completion Project How do completion patterns vary by ethnicity, gender and citizenship?
Why do students say they complete (or not)? What are the perceptions about graduate school of completers and non-completers?
What is the impact of the six categories of interventions? How does efficacy vary across broad field and for which populations?
How does master’s degree completion interact with completion/attrition across program and broad field?
Can we project ultimate completion and time to degree from our completion and attrition data?
Future Ph.D. Completion Project Publications
Baseline demographic data (publication expected March 2008)
Student exit surveys (publication expected late fall 2008)
Promising practices, policies and activities
Publications based on 2007 and 2009 data submissions (2008-2010)
Final “Best Practices” report (2010)