Photo : Claude Lavoie (Université Laval)

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aVULNERABILITIES, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATIONPROGRAM : ECOBIOCC

PROJECT START AND END DATESNOVEMBER 2010 • MARCH 2013

INFORMATION

Robert Sironprojet@ouranos.ca 514-282-6464www.ouranos.ca

At the global scale, changes in biodiversity are mostly the result of pressures from human activities including climate change (CC). Already, many observations indicate that organisms respond to CC in many ways and that significant impacts for biodiversity could occur. Moreover, these changes have the potential to greatly affect human well-being by altering the ecological services we obtain from ecosystems (such as water filtration, air quality, etc.). In such a context, it becomes imperative to track the transformations occurring around us so that we can implement adequate strategies to minimize the effects of CC on biodiversity and maintain ecological services.

Develop a standardized methodology (positioning a network of research plots, inventory and analysis methods, choice of species) that will make it possible to determine the effects, on various spatial and temporal scales, of CC on the biodiversity of Quebec flora and fauna.

Identify areas where projected CC will be low, moderate or high.Propose a methodology for selecting research sites based on climatic and bio-geophysical variables.Conduct a broad-scale survey of experts in fields linked to biodiversity regarding the monitoring priorities.Organize meetings with experts to identify biodiversity indicators for Quebec. Develop a methodological framework for detecting changes in biodiversity in time and space.

Peres-Neto, P. et al. 2013. Développement d’un cadre méthodologique et l’échantillonnage pour le suivi de la biodiversité en fonction des changements climatiques.Rapport pour Ouranos.http://www.ouranos.ca/media/publication/196_RapportPeresNeto2013.pdf

C O N T E X T

O B J E C T I V E

A P P R O A C H

R E F E R E N C E

FUNDING

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR

OTHER PARTICIPANTS

PROJECTCOMPLETED› › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › DEVELOPMENT OF A METHODOLOGY AND SAMPLING FRAMEWORK FOR MONITORING BIODIVERSITY IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

See reverse sidefor results.

Ministère des Ressources naturelles(MRN)Ministère du Développementdurable, de l'Environnement,de la Faune et des Parcs (MDDEFP)Université du Québec à Rimouski(UQAR)Université LavalUniversité McGill

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Pedro R. Peres-NetoUniversité du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

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Figure 2. Climate similarity index used to select sampling sites. The index is calculated using 37 climate variables. The regions in green are most similar and those in red are least similar. The climate simulations used in this study are from version 4 of the CRCM.

RESULTS

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BENEFITS FOR ADAPTATION

The methodological framework provides the scientific basis upon which to establish a network for monitoring biodiversity and the impacts of climate change in Quebec.The MDDEFP will test this methodology in a pre-sampling exercise.Monitoring of biodiversity will provide the opportunity to assess the impacts of human disturbances and development and conservation efforts, as well as changes in biodiversity and ecological services, in the interest of climate change adaptation.

DEVELOPMENT OF A METHODOLOGY AND SAMPLING FRAMEWORK FOR MONITORING BIODIVERSITY IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

PROJECTCOMPLETED

To identify the needs for Quebec in terms of biodiversity monitoring, more than 600 professionals responded to a survey on monitoring priorities. Few clear trends emerged, except for the fact that participants would like full coverage of the province, with an emphasis on natural ecosystems (lakes and rivers, wetlands and forests) with monitoring focused on endangered species, invasive species, and those that provide significant ecological services (Figure 1). Indicators of biodiversity (types of organisms and measurement) for different ecosystems were identified through meetings with experts and reviews of the literature. The recommended indicators are useful for ecological services, territorial planning, scientific interest and the feasibility of monitoring.

In addition to determining the indicators to be monitored, it was also important to identify the priority areas for monitoring to isolate the impacts of climate change from other disturbances and from natural variations. To do so, the sampling sites in areas that are not much affected by climate change were identified and compared to areas that are greatly affected. To identify these sites, an index of climatic similarity, incorporating some 30 climatic variables, was developed, making it possible to identify areas that will be relatively unaffected, moderately affected, or greatly affected by climate change for the 2014-2070 period (Figure 2). An optimization methodology was later on used to distribute the sites throughout Quebec based on the variables identified and the climate coverage.

Finally, an analytical framework was developed as a means for organizing, analyzing, interpreting and visualizing the data resulting from monitoring.

Figure 2. Priority locations for monitoring the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Quebec for the North-South and East-West axes. Note that a “no priority” option was available for both axes, and this was chosen by the majority of respondents (57% and 71% respectively). Map by the Ministère des Ressources naturelles du Québec.

Index of climatic similarity

One main component

West EastTe

mpe

rate

Bore

alSu

b-A

rctic

Brasswood

Herbaceous tundra

Forest tundra

Spruce-lichen

Spruce-moss

Shrub tundra

Fir-white birch

Fir-yellow birch Sugar maple-yellow birch

Hickory