Complete College and Other Challenges

TACHENovember 10, 2011

John G. Morgan, TBR

1

2

Revenues and Expenditures in Tennessee, 1978 Base

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

$13,000

$14,000

78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Rev

enu

es a

nd

Exp

end

itu

res

(mil

lio

ns)

$0

$17,000

$34,000

$51,000

$68,000

$85,000

$102,000

$119,000

$136,000

$153,000

$170,000

$187,000

$204,000

$221,000

Perso

nal In

com

e (millio

ns)

Tax Financed Expenditures Adjusted Revenues Personal Income

Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Higher Education RevenuesHigher Education Revenues

Total Revenue per FTE - UniversitiesInflation Adjusted

$12,707$13,309

$12,285

$13,960

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

StAppr

StFees

Total

3

Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Higher Education RevenuesHigher Education Revenues

Total Revenue per FTE - Community CollegesInflation Adjusted

$7,529 $7,546$8,078

$8,586

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

StAppr

StFees

Total

4

Change in Total Funding FY 2008 to FY 2012Universities

Assumes fee increases of 8.8% at APSU, ETSU, and TSU; 9.8% at MTSU and TTU; and 11.0% at UOM

Change in Total Funding FY 2008 to FY 2012Community Colleges

Assumes a fee increase of 9.5%

Educational Attainment and Rank Among States Tennessee, 2006 (Percent)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

7.8

23.4

6.5

85.0

82.1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Age 25-64 with Graduate/ Prof. Degree

Age 25-64 with Bachelor's or Higher

Age 25-64 with Associate Degree

Age 25-64 with HS Diploma

Age 18-24 with HS Diploma 28th

38th

48th

42nd

40th

7

Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength

8

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE IL

IN

IA

KY

LA

MDMA

MS

NJ

NY

NDOK

OR

SC

SD

UT

VA

WAMN

NH

TN TX

WV

WI

WY

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Pers

onal In

com

e P

er

Capit

a,

20

00

Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

MT

HI

AK

GA

KS

ME NE

NV

NC

OH PAVT

ID

MI

MO

NM

RIFL US

Low Income, High Educational AttainmentLow Income, Low Educational Attainment

High Income, High Educational AttainmentHigh Income, Low Educational Attainment

State New Economy Index (2002)

Top Tier

Middle Tier

Low Tier

9

Fraction happy about life by years of completed schooling before and after conditioning on income

0.95

0.90

0.85

0.800–11 13–15 16+12

Years of schooling

Fra

ctio

n ha

ppy

No income controls Conditional on income

Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., “Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1.

10

Job satisfaction and years of completed schooling before and after conditioning on income

Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., “Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1.

0.88

0.86

0.84

0.800–11 13–15 16+12

Years of schooling

Fra

ctio

n o

f re

spo

nd

en

ts

Before conditioning on income After conditioning on income

0.82

Are you satisfiedwith your job?

11

Self-assessed health status and years of completed schooling before and after conditioning on income

Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., “Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1.

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0–11 13–15 16+12Years of schooling

Fra

ctio

n o

f re

spo

nd

en

ts

Before conditioning on income After conditioning on income

Fraction reportingVery Good Health

12

Do you believe people can be trusted?

Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., “Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1.

0.60

0.50

0.30

0–11 13–15 16+12Years of schooling

Fra

ctio

n o

f re

spo

nd

en

ts

Before conditioning on income After conditioning on income

0.40

13

Likelihood of divorce or separation

Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., “Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1.

0.15

0.10

00–11 13–15 16+12

Years of schooling

Fra

ctio

n o

f re

spo

nd

en

ts

Before conditioning on income After conditioning on income

0.05

14

Time preferences for today or the future: Do you live for today?

Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., “Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1.

0.55

0.50

0.45

0.30

0–11 13–15 16+12Years of schooling

Fra

ctio

n o

f re

spo

nd

en

ts

Before conditioning on income After conditioning on income

0.35

0.40

15 March 2011Matthew N. Murray, UT

Center for Business & Economic Research

Our human capital flow: the Tennessee student pipeline, 2008

Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems