Competitive cable ’09-10 season. 1 3Q 00 Competitive Cable Overview.
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Transcript of Competitive cable ’09-10 season. 1 3Q 00 Competitive Cable Overview.
competitive cable
’09-1
0 s
eason
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3Q 00 Competitive Cable 3Q 00 Competitive Cable OverviewOverview
DISCOVERYNETWORKS U.S.
RESEARCH
3
► ratings update►’09-10 prime shifts► new season
► DVR contribution
► where does PTV fit in the landscape?
agenda
4
rati
ng
s
up
date
5
Prime Time P25-54 Rtg
0
5
10
15
20
25
ABC CBS NBC FOX PBS TNET ASCO
'07-08 '08-09 '09-10
-1%+14%-5%-4%-3%
2009-10 = Sep 21 2009 – Sep 19 2010
M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, time period averages
Most broadcast nets saw small shifts in ’09-10.
PBS regained +14% to match its ’07-08 prime rating (0.42).
NBC is buoyed by Winter Olympics (1Q 10), Summer Olympics (3Q 08), primetime NFL (4Q).
industry ’09-10
+2% -2%
6
Prime Time P25-54 Rtg
0
5
10
15
20
25
ABC CBS NBC FOX PBS TNET ASCO
2008* 2009* 2010*
+1%-7%-18%+2%-5%
M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, time period averages * same 6-week period each year
Entering the new season NBC had the most to regain, following a 36% loss for the Leno 10p hour in fall 2009.
CBS is top-rated in the new season to-date.
FOX 2010 post-season MLB drives the decline vs same period prior year. ALCS -15%World Series -29%
new seasonSep 20-Oct 31 2010
+5% -2%
7
b’d
cast
8
Top 25 Programs Hour
L+SD P25-54
RtgNBC NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Su 830p 8.50ABC DANCING WITH THE STARS M 8p 5.91CBS TWO AND A HALF MEN M 9p 5.82CBS NCIS Tu 8p 5.52ABC MODERN FAMILY W 9p 5.50CBS BIG BANG THEORY, THE Th 8p 5.42ABC GREY'S ANATOMY Th 9p 5.01ABC DANCING W/STARS RESULTS Tu 9p 4.90CBS SURVIVOR: NICARAGUA W 8p 4.84CBS NCIS: LOS ANGELES Tu 9p 4.82CBS CRIMINAL MINDS W 9p 4.79CBS MIKE & MOLLY M 930p 4.75ABC DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES Su 9p 4.73FOX GLEE Tu 8p 4.64CBS UNDERCOVER BOSS Su 9p 4.52CBS HAWAII FIVE 0 M 10p 4.41CBS CSI Th 9p 4.39CBS MENTALIST, THE Th 10p 4.39CBS $#* ! MY DAD SAYS Th 830p 4.33CBS AMAZING RACE 17 Su 8p 4.30CBS HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER M 8p 3.96FOX SIMPSONS Su 8p 3.91FOX HOUSE M 8p 3.83CBS RULES OF ENGAGEMENT M 830p 3.78NBC OFFICE Th 9p 3.71
new seasonSep 20–Oct 31 2010
Of 22 new series, only three appear in the top 25 ranking after six weeks. All air on CBS.
Of the sophomore series, FOX’s Glee, CBS’s NCIS LA, and CBS’s Undercover Boss each returned to the top 25.
Five new series are cancelled:FOX Lone StarABC My GenerationNBC OutlawABC The Whole TruthNBC Undercovers
M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, specials excluded.
9
cab
le
10
38
%
12
%
8%
5%
24
%
14
%
7%
7%8%
8%9
%10
%
10
%
11
%
6%
13
%
9%
ID
HIS
T
APL
TR
AV
TV
1
CN
BC
EN
TR
U
GS
N
STYL
FO
OD
A&
E
SC
I
ES
PN
BR
AV
WG
NA
NFLN
2009-10 = Sep 21 2009 – Sep 19 2010
M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, PQH daypart ratings, Ranking includes >0.10 P25-54 and >5% gain
gainers ’09-10
fast look ► ID +38% (0.22) Wed Who Bleep Marry (0.42) Fri Deadly Women (0.38) Mon Disappeared (0.34) Tue Almost Got Away (0.33) Sun On Case P Zahn (0.31)
► HIST +24% (0.68) Mon (1.27 +123%) Sun (0.96 +28%)
► APL +14% (0.25) Fri Whale Wars (0.48) Sun River Monsters (0.47) Fri Pitbulls Parolees (0.31)
► TRAV +13% (0.26) Wed Man v Food (0.36) Wed Bert-Conqueror (0.35)
P25
-54
% in
crea
se
11
-54
%
-32
%
-31
%-28
%-24
%-20
%
-11
%
-10
%
-10
%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-5%
-26
%
-14
%
CM
DY
SYFY
WE
TN
T
NG
C
TB
SC
FO
XN
US
A
LIFE
CM
T
SPK
SO
AP
VH
1
HA
LL
SPD
MS
NB
HLN
CN
N
decliners ’09-10P
25-5
4 %
dec
reas
e
2009-10 = Sep 21 2009 – Sep 19 2010
M-Su 8-11pm, P25-54 L+SD, PQH daypart ratings, Ranking includes >0.10 P25-54 and >5% loss
fast look ► SOAP -20% (0.20) Prime is ABC soap replays- will relaunch as Disney Jr in 2012
► VH1 -24% (0.26) Mon originals (0.37 -35%) Sun originals (0.37 -30%)
► HALL -26% (0.23) Long-term losses for movie & off-net (plus recent Martha Stewart daytime failure)
► Cable News Nets FOX News -9% (0.49) MSNBC -31% (0.24) HLN -32% (0.15) CNN -54% (0.16)
12
dvr
use
13Ranking includes only 3+ telecasts, specials excluded, ranked by rating point gain of L+7D rating vs live rating
cable dvr 3Q 1011 cable programs gained ~1 rating point or more via time-shifted viewing
LIFE’s Project Runway, AMC’s Madmen and FX’s Rescue Me doubled its live P25-54 rating in the live+7 metric
HIST’s Mon 10p Pawn Stars hour falls outside the top 25, gaining 0.50 rating point (25% lift) on its 1.93 live rating.
L+7D % LiftP 25-54 +/- L+7D vs
COV Rtg Live
Network Program Hour AA% Point AA%
DISC DEADLIEST CATCH Tu 9p 4.18 1.37 49%
USA ROYAL PAINS Th 10p 3.22 1.33 70%
USA COVERT AFFAIRS Tu 10p 3.03 1.32 77%
LIFE PROJECT RUNWAY Th 9p 2.51 1.26 101%
FX SONS OF ANARCHY Tu 10p 3.16 1.24 65%
TNT RIZZOLI & ISLES M 10p 3.13 1.21 63%
BRAV TOP CHEF W 10p 2.52 1.20 91%
USA BURN NOTICE Th 9p 2.96 1.16 64%
TNT CLOSER, THE M 9p 2.84 1.08 61%
USA WHITE COLLAR Tu 9p 2.28 1.05 85%
EN KEEPING UP KARDASHIANS Su 10p 2.55 1.03 68%
TNT LEVERAGE Su 9p 2.03 0.97 92%
MTV JERSEY SHORE 2 Th 10p 2.70 0.95 54%
AMC MAD MEN SU 10p 1.72 0.93 118%
USA PSYCH W 10p 2.15 0.93 76%
SCIF WAREHOUSE 13 Tu 9p 1.71 0.82 92%
FOOD NEXT FN STAR 6 Su 9p 2.36 0.82 53%
CMDY TOSH.O W 1030p 1.54 0.74 93%
BRAV REAL HSWIVES OF NJ M 10p 2.10 0.73 53%
SCIF EUREKA F 9p 1.49 0.73 96%
BRAV TOP CHEF W 9p 1.50 0.71 90%
FX RESCUE ME Tu 10p 1.33 0.67 102%
LIFE ARMY WIVES Su 10p 1.82 0.65 56%
MTV TEEN MOM 2 Tu 10p 1.87 0.63 51%
MTV HILLS, THE SSN 6 Tu 10p 1.41 0.63 81%
14Specials excluded, ranked by rating point gain of L+7D rating vs live rating
This table ranks L+7 lift vs live P25-54 by rating point gain.
Of the new fall series, CBS’s Hawaii 5-0 shows greatest L+7 lift, followed by NBC’s The Event.
9 of the most time-shifted series air on Thursdays.
new season dvr b’cast4 weeks only! Sep 20-Oct 17
L+7D % LiftP25-54 +/ - L+7D
COV Rtg vs Live Top 25 Programs Day AA% Point AA%
ABC MODERN FAMILY W 9p 6.91 2.91 73%
ABC GREY'S ANATOMY Th 9p 6.84 2.79 69%
FOX GLEE Tu 8p 6.30 2.77 78%
CBS BIG BANG THEORY, THE Th 8p 6.60 2.60 65%
FOX HOUSE M 8p 5.66 2.49 79%
NBC OFFICE Th 9p 4.90 2.18 80%
CBS SURVIVOR: NICARAGUA W 8p 5.67 2.06 57%
CBS TWO AND A HALF MEN M 9p 6.89 1.94 39%
CBS NCIS Tu 8p 6.48 1.92 42%
CBS CRIMINAL MINDS W 9p 5.95 1.89 47%
ABC DESPERATE HOUSEWIVES Su 9p 5.79 1.87 48%
CBS HAWAII FIVE M 10p 6.12 1.84 43%
CBS HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER M 8p 4.80 1.80 60%
CBS MENTALIST, THE Th 10p 5.65 1.63 41%
NBC EVENT M 9p 4.41 1.62 58%
ABC PRIVATE PRACTICE Th 10p 4.48 1.57 54%
CBS CSI Th 9p 5.30 1.51 40%
ABC COUGAR TOWN W 930p 4.32 1.49 53%
FOX BONES Th 8p 3.98 1.46 58%
FOX FRINGE Th 9p 3.29 1.41 75%
CBS NCIS: LOS ANGELES Tu 9p 5.66 1.36 32%
ABC CASTLE M 10p 4.47 1.35 43%
CBS AMAZING RACE 17 Su 8p 5.00 1.33 36%
NBC 30 ROCK Th 830p 3.40 1.33 64%
FOX HELL'S KITCHEN W 9p 4.20 1.31 45%
15
wh
ere
does
PTV
fit
in?
16
Prime Household Rankings (Jan thru Oct 27 for selected cable/broadcast nets)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
CB
S
NB
C
AB
C
FO
X
FO
XN
PB
S
HIS
T
HG
TV
DIS
C
FO
OD
TL
C
HA
LL
MS
NB
CN
N
AP
L
NG
C
TR
AV
His
tory
Intl
.
BIO
BB
CA
DIY
Despite Y-O-Y slippage, the “Big Four” excel in household ratings
Fox News is only Cable web to surpass PTV bucket
More mature cable nets form the leading tier followed by later-launched niche services
17
Who’s the Target? Median Prime Time age for selected
cable/broadcast nets, YTD 2010
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
DIS
C
TR
AV
TL
C
AP
L
FO
OD
FO
X
BB
CA
HIS
T
NG
C
BIO
DIY
AB
C
NB
C
His
tory
Intl
.
CB
S
HG
TV
MS
NB
C
PB
S
HA
LL
CN
N
FO
XN
The trades focus on 18-49s or 25-54 adults because that’s what Madison Ave is buying.
Should that make it PTV’s audience too?
PTV ranks:#12 for P18-34#10 for P35-54#6 for P55+
Where should PTV focus, especially as the U.S. population shifts to the right (age-wise)?