Competition for natural Competition for natural resourcesresources

The case of waterThe case of water2nd FAO Consultation2nd FAO Consultation

on bioenergy and food securityon bioenergy and food security

Rome, 5-6 February 2008Rome, 5-6 February 2008

Jean-Marc FaurèsJean-Marc Faurès

FAO Land and Water DivisionFAO Land and Water Division

Water and agriculture Water and agriculture todaytoday

Irrigation expansion 1950-Irrigation expansion 1950-20002000

► Irrigation key element of Green Revolution Irrigation key element of Green Revolution “tripod”: “tripod”: waterwater, fertilizers, seeds:, fertilizers, seeds:

Need for rapid food production increaseNeed for rapid food production increase Massive investments in irrigation (particularly Massive investments in irrigation (particularly

in Asia)in Asia) Investment peak in late 1970sInvestment peak in late 1970s Focus on large scale, public, surface irrigation Focus on large scale, public, surface irrigation

schemesschemes

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Irrigation (million hectares)

Food price index (1990=100)

WB lending (1990 constant price)

Investments in irrigation Investments in irrigation 1960-20051960-2005

Irrigation in the world todayIrrigation in the world today

►275 Million hectares275 Million hectares►70% of all freshwater appropriation70% of all freshwater appropriation►20% of cultivated land20% of cultivated land

40% of agricultural production40% of agricultural production 60% of cereal production60% of cereal production

Where irrigation mattersWhere irrigation matters

The impactThe impact

Increased water withdrawalIncreased water withdrawal

Source: Comprehensive Assessment of water management in agriculture, based on a study by IWMI, WRI, Kassel University, CA RR #2, 2007

Environmental water stressEnvironmental water stress

The loss of biodiversityThe loss of biodiversity

Main driving forces for AWUMain driving forces for AWU► DemographyDemography

Population growth (although slowing down)Population growth (although slowing down) Urbanisation and changes in diet preferencesUrbanisation and changes in diet preferences

► Economic growthEconomic growth Trade and globalisation Trade and globalisation

► accelerated pressure on wateraccelerated pressure on water

► Increasing concern for environmental Increasing concern for environmental sustainabilitysustainability Competition for water (incl. other sectors)Competition for water (incl. other sectors) Pollution (see agriculture in MA)Pollution (see agriculture in MA)

► Climate changeClimate change► Bioenergy ? Bioenergy ?

Projections for 2030Projections for 2030

►Without accounting for CC and biofuels:Without accounting for CC and biofuels:

Irrigated production to increase by 36%Irrigated production to increase by 36% Irrigated area to increase by 20%Irrigated area to increase by 20% Irrigated water requirements to increase by Irrigated water requirements to increase by

12-14%12-14%

Source: AT2030 and FAO-NRLW estimates, refers to developing countries Source: AT2030 and FAO-NRLW estimates, refers to developing countries onlyonly

Which water are we talking Which water are we talking about ?about ?

►““Blue water”: freshwater from rivers, Blue water”: freshwater from rivers, aquifers and lakes: aquifers and lakes: 45,000 km3/yr, 12,500 “available”45,000 km3/yr, 12,500 “available” irrigated agricultureirrigated agriculture

►““Green water”: rainwater stored in the Green water”: rainwater stored in the soil and available for biomass soil and available for biomass production:production: 75,000 km3/yr75,000 km3/yr rainfed agriculturerainfed agriculture

August 2006

114

654

1080

239

787

1505

1692

907

219

Areas in green: agriculture mainly under rainfed

Areas in blue: agriculture mainly under irrigation

Circles depict total crop depletion

DependencyDependencyon “green” and “blue” wateron “green” and “blue” water

““Blue” and “green” water in the Blue” and “green” water in the water cyclewater cycle

What is the What is the potential ? potential ?

Climate changeClimate change

Impact on runoffImpact on runoff

Source: IPCC report on water, foprthcoming

Projected impacts of climate changeProjected impacts of climate change

1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

Food

Water

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible ChangesChanges

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

Asia: Major issues: Water availability & floodingAsia: Major issues: Water availability & floodingFlooding/melting of glaciersFlooding/melting of glaciers► Coastal areas, esp. megadelta regions in S/E/SE-Asia at greatest risk due to Coastal areas, esp. megadelta regions in S/E/SE-Asia at greatest risk due to

flooding flooding ► Example 1 m SLR Mekong River delta Example 1 m SLR Mekong River delta 50% loss of mangrove area, 50% loss of mangrove area,

~100,000 ha of arable land becoming salt marsh; floods affecting 3.5-5 ~100,000 ha of arable land becoming salt marsh; floods affecting 3.5-5 million peoplemillion people

► Decay of glaciers: e.g. Tibetan Plateau; Himalayan glaciers to 1/5 by 2030sDecay of glaciers: e.g. Tibetan Plateau; Himalayan glaciers to 1/5 by 2030s↑↑Water stressWater stress ► 0.12-1.2 billion people affected by 2020s/2050s0.12-1.2 billion people affected by 2020s/2050s► AG irrigation demand +10% in arid/semi-arid E-Asia for ↑temp +1°CAG irrigation demand +10% in arid/semi-arid E-Asia for ↑temp +1°C► Crop yields up to 20% in E/SE-East Asia, Crop yields up to 20% in E/SE-East Asia, ↓crop yield ↓crop yield up to 30% in C/S-Asia up to 30% in C/S-Asia

by 2050s; due to rapid population growth risk of hunger remains high in by 2050s; due to rapid population growth risk of hunger remains high in several countriesseveral countries

► Ex: India – ↓freshwater availability by 47% in 2025 due to CC and pop. Ex: India – ↓freshwater availability by 47% in 2025 due to CC and pop. growth, ↑intense rain and frequent flash floods during monsoon growth, ↑intense rain and frequent flash floods during monsoon more more surface runoff, less groundwater recharge -> need for further storage (dams)surface runoff, less groundwater recharge -> need for further storage (dams)

BiofuelsBiofuels

Trends in biofuel productionTrends in biofuel production

Source: Earth Trends 2007 Earth Policy Institute

Corn-based ethanolCorn-based ethanol

Sugarcane-based ethanolSugarcane-based ethanol

"Sweet Substitutes"Crude oil prices above 30 US$/bbl drive world sugar prices

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Crude oil (spot WTI)

Sugar (NYMEX-11)

Data: Nymex and EIA, J. Schmidhuber (2005)

Sugar: the price linkSugar: the price link

Water requirements of Water requirements of biofuelsbiofuels

crop:

fuel product: (energy density: Bio-diesel 35 MJ/l Ethanol 20 MJ/l)

annual obtainable yield in l/ha (indicative): I/R

Evapo-transpiration in litre / litre fuel (indicative)

Irrigation water withdrawn in litre / litre fuel (indicative)

Sugar caneEthanol (from sugar) 6000 I/R 2000 1333

Sugar beetEthanol (from sugar) 7000 I/R 786 571

CassavaEthanol (from starch) 4000 R 2250 -

MaizeEthanol (from starch) 3500 I/R 1357 857

Oil palm Bio-diesel 5500 R 2364 -

Rapeseed / Mustard Bio-diesel 1200 R 3333 -

Soybean Bio-diesel 400 R 10000 -

Source: Hoogeveen, FAO-NRLW

A few numbersA few numbers► Water needed to produce:Water needed to produce:

1 kilo of wheat: 1 000 litres1 kilo of wheat: 1 000 litres 1 kilo of meat (beef): 15 000 litres1 kilo of meat (beef): 15 000 litres

► Daily water requirements per person:Daily water requirements per person: Drinking: 2-3 litresDrinking: 2-3 litres Domestic needs: 20–300 litres Domestic needs: 20–300 litres Food: 2 000-3 000 litresFood: 2 000-3 000 litres

► with 2 500 litres of water, we can produce:with 2 500 litres of water, we can produce: food for one person for one dayfood for one person for one day 1 litre of biofuel1 litre of biofuel

Biofuel and water use (2005)Biofuel and water use (2005)

Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007

Projections for water demand - Projections for water demand - 20302030

Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007

► Rainfed agriculture: Rainfed agriculture: Pressure on land resourcesPressure on land resources

► Irrigated agriculture: Irrigated agriculture: Pressure on water resourcesPressure on water resources

Impacts of biofuelsImpacts of biofuels

NAS report on water and NAS report on water and biofuels in the United States biofuels in the United States

(2007):(2007):► Currently, biofuels are a Currently, biofuels are a marginalmarginal additional stress on additional stress on

water supplies at the regional to local scale. water supplies at the regional to local scale. However, significant However, significant acceleration of biofuels acceleration of biofuels production could cause much greater water quantity production could cause much greater water quantity problems depending on where the crops are grown.problems depending on where the crops are grown. Growing biofuel crops in areas requiring additional Growing biofuel crops in areas requiring additional irrigation water from already depleted aquifers is a irrigation water from already depleted aquifers is a major concern.major concern.

► The growth of biofuels in the United States has The growth of biofuels in the United States has probably already probably already affected water qualityaffected water quality because of because of the large amount of N and P required to produce the large amount of N and P required to produce corn. If projected future increases in the use of corn corn. If projected future increases in the use of corn for ethanol production do occur, for ethanol production do occur, the increase in harm the increase in harm to water quality could be considerableto water quality could be considerable. .

ConclusionsConclusions

► World water system already under heavy stress due World water system already under heavy stress due to agriculture and other usesto agriculture and other uses

► Agriculture main water user (70%)Agriculture main water user (70%)► Future water demand for agriculture in the riseFuture water demand for agriculture in the rise► Climate change likely to result in increased demand Climate change likely to result in increased demand

for irrigated waterfor irrigated water► Bioenergy likely to add to pressure on water:Bioenergy likely to add to pressure on water:

depending on type of cropdepending on type of crop depending on farming system: rainfed/irrigateddepending on farming system: rainfed/irrigated depending on regiondepending on region

► China, India, already facing serious water constraintsChina, India, already facing serious water constraints► Keep an eye on sugarcaneKeep an eye on sugarcane

THANK YOUTHANK YOU