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Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
“Competing on Analytics”or
“The era of reporting draws to a close”
Hans-Rainer PauliBusiness Development Manager TechnologySAS [email protected]
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Inhalt
Ausgangslage
Kritische Faktoren
Business Value
Information Evolution Model
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Was ist Business Intelligence?Das Wissen, welches man aus der Analyse firmeneigener Informationen gewinnt
Ein von Howard Dresner von der Gartner Group 1989 eingeführter, populärer Oberbegriff für die Beschreibung einer Gruppe von Konzepten und Methoden, welche Geschäftsentscheidungen mit Hilfe faktenbasierter Entscheidungs-findungssysteme verbessern sollen.
“The telephone book is full of facts, but it doesn’t contain a single idea.”
Mortimer J. Adler
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.IntelligenceIntelligence
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Reporting / OLAPReporting / OLAP
Data ManagementData Management
Data AccessData Access How Much?How Many?
What Happened?
Business IntelligenceThe Current (Old) Definition
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Einfache, aber nützliche Fragen…
Wieviel haben wir verkauft (pro Monat, Kanal, Region)?
Welche Läden haben am meisten verkauft?
Welches ist unser meistverkauftes Produkt?
Welches ist unser profitabelstes Produkt?
Haben wir unsere Ziele erreicht?
Product Time
Loca
tion
Year
Month
Week
Store
SK
U
Brand
Region
Subcategory
All M
erchandise
CountryCompany
Zone
Category
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
…führen zu vielversprechenderen Fragen
Wie viel werden wir nächsten Monat (Quartal, Jahr) verkaufen (pro Produkt, Niederlassung)?Wie stocken wir unsere Lagerbestände optimal wieder auf?Welche Kunden werden wahrscheinlich auf eine Werbeaktion reagieren und wieviel werden sie wahrscheinlich ausgeben?Wie bekommen und behalten wir profitable Kunden?Wie verwenden wir unser Marketingbudget um unseren Profit zu maximieren?Wo sollten wir neue Läden eröffnen um unseren Umsatz zu steigern?
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.IntelligenceIntelligence
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OptimizationOptimization
Predictive ModelingPredictive Modeling
ForecastingForecasting
Reporting / OLAPReporting / OLAP
Data ManagementData Management
Data AccessData Access
What will happen next?What’s the best that can happen?
How Much?How Many?
What Happened?
Beyond Traditional BI to Business Analytics
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Keep in Mind This is what traditional BI looks like…
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
This is what “true” analytics can do for you …
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
"It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory."
W. Edwards Deming
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
„Competing on analytics“
“Organizations are competing on analytics not just because they can …but also because they should.”
"After years of fitful progress, leading firms have begun basing their competitive strategies on the sophisticated analysis of business data."
Thomas H. Davenport,President's Distinguished Professor & Director of ResearchBabson College
Source: Harvard Business Review (January 2006)
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Wettbewerb heute
Stephen ZanderDirector of Operations & Technology
Enterprise Solutions & Services, McKesson
“If you can build something, I can build something six months later. If you can buy it, I can buy it. What you do with your information is absolutely what differentiates you from your competitors …”
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Wettbewerb morgen„Competing on analytics“
Optimierung von Schlüsselprozessen• Verkauf• Kundenbeziehungsmanagement• Produktion• Logistik
Erkennen von Zusammenhängen statt ex post factoBereinigungen• Wie beeinflussen nicht-finanzielle Faktoren ein optimales
finanzielles Ergebnis?
Akkurate Vorrausschätzungen• Planung• Pro-aktives und rechtzeitiges Handeln
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Charakteristika analytisch orientierter Unternehmen
Mitglieder der Geschäftsleitung, welche Analytik und faktenbasierte Entscheidungen befürworten und fördern
Einsatz wirklich analytischer Werkzeuge und Verfahren
Strategische Nutzung analytischer Verfahren in verschiedenen Geschäftsbereichen und –prozessen
Unternehmensweiter Ansatz für das Management analytischer Werkzeuge, Datenbestände und Fähigkeiten
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Unternehmensweite Einsatzgebiete
Management
Marketing
Verkauf
Personal
Finanzen
Produktion
Logistik
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
„Business Analytics“ hat nichts zu tun mit…
Reporting
Multidimensionale Analysen (OLAP)
Deskriptive Statistik
„Dashboarding“
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
…sondern „Business Analytics“ hat zu tun mit:
Statistische Verfahren• Regression, Korrelation, Varianzanalysen,
Clusteranalysen
Prediktives Data Mining• Neuronale Netze• Entscheidungsbaumverfahren
Textmining
Zeitreihenanalyse und Forecasting
Komplexe Optimierungstechniken• Lineare und nicht-lineare Programmierung
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Einsatzgebiete für Statistik und Datamining
Predictive maintenanceQualitätskontrolleGarantieanalysen
WarenkorbanalysenPreisgestaltungProduktpromotionenTarifberechnung
Produkt
MitarbeiterretentionSaläranalysen
Credit scoringBetrugsentdeckungGeldwäscheKostenanalyse
Kostenreduktion
BedarfsplanungCross-/Up-sellPotentialProfitabilitätsanalyseKundenretentionZielgruppenanalyseKundensegmentierungWeb Analytics
Umsatzsteigerung
ProzesseKunden
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
The Future Matters… - Zeitreihenanalyse und Vorhersage
ManagementManagement
ProductionProductionSales &
MarketingSales &
MarketingDevelopmentDevelopment FinancialFinancial
Our profit is declining due to lost orders and large inventories
Our profit is declining due to lost orders and large inventories
We have many customers complaining as production does not
deliver what we expected
We have many customers complaining as production does not
deliver what we expected
Sales always promise more
than we can produce
Sales always promise more
than we can produce
It is impossible to make plans
–We always have
emergencyorders
It is impossible to make plans
–We always have
emergencyorders
The sales forecast isunreliable and
not binding
The sales forecast isunreliable and
not binding
What to develop when nobody knows what the customer really demands?
What to develop when nobody knows what the customer really demands?
Where shall we open the next
new store?
Where shall we open the next
new store?
PurchasingPurchasing
How do we make agreements with
suppliers when we do not know what to sell?
How do we make agreements with
suppliers when we do not know what to sell?
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Zeitreihenanalyse und Vorhersage
Allgemein• Bedarfsplanung für Produkte
und Dienstleistungen• Vorhersage für
Langzeitplanung− Financial forecasts − Standortauswahl
• Vorhersage von Personalbedarf
Finanzwesen• Cash Management (ATMs
und Zweigstellen)• Risiko Management
− Monte Carlo Simulations− Input für Basel 2
Modellierungen• Forschung – Equity / Bond
Analysen
Einzelhandel • Bedarfsplanung• Güterauswahl• Promotiosanalyse
Energie• Bedarfsvorhersage
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Operations ResearchAntworten auf die entscheidenden Fragen…
Wie sieht die optimale Lösung aus?
“…there is always a well-known solution to every human problem - neat, plausible, and wrong.”
H.L. Mencken (1880-1956) editor, critic, curmudgeon
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Operations Research - Optimierung
Operations Research (OR) befasst sich mit der optimalen Lösung von Planungsaufgaben in Technik, Wirtschaft und Verwaltung.• Netzplantechnik: Planung des zeitlichen und logischen
Ablauf von Großprojekten• Linearoptimierung: Mengenplanung für Absatz und
Produktion, sowie für Transport-, Netzfluss- oder Maschinenbelegungs-Probleme
• Simulation: Lösung von Warteschlangenproblemen oder Optimierung von Online-Systemen
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Operations Research – Optimierung:Einige Anwendungsbeispiele
Standortsuche
Verkaufsoptimierung
Kampagnenoptimierung
Produktionsplanung
Materialbedarfsplanung
Personalplanung
Verteilung
Netzwerk-Routing
Ablaufplanung
Lieferantenauswahl und -bewertung
Lageroptimierung
Lieferkettenoptimierung
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Ein einfaches Beispiel
A product mix problem:The Green Diamond Snack Company has available 410 pounds of peanuts, 140 pounds of cashews, 210 pounds of almonds, and 80 pounds of Brazil nuts. The company produces one-pound cans of the following nut mixes:
*
*Honolulu
London
$7.5015%45%40%-Waldorf Mix$6.005%30%15%50%Savoy Mix$2.50---100%Fancy Peanuts
PriceBrazil NutsAlmondsCashewsPeanutsMix
How many cans of each mix should be produced in order to producethe greatest revenue?
Green DiamondGreen Diamond
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Lohnt sich der Einsatz von Analytics?Gaming by customers who use their Total Rewards cards increased 5.6 percent, and the amount of gaming revenue generated by customers outside their home markets rose 15.6 percent.
Um
satz
More targeted campaigns based on customer needsImproved ROI from 2x to 10xAverage campaign lead time cut by 9 weeks
Um
satz
400 automated campaigns per year3-400% increase in response rates –better targetingGreater profitability through better X and up-sellMeasure ROI of each campaign
Um
satz
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Lohnt sich der Einsatz von Analytics?
One-to-one customer contactsConsistent pan-European processes and procedures2% reduction in 400M Euro marketing spend – 8M cost saving
Accurately predicting product demand and customer behavior. Each 1% reduction in forecast variance = $200K reduced expenses
Q3 05 - US$15M from lead-generation activitiesSignificant uplift in credit card salesBehaviour-triggered activities up to 25% response rates
Um
satzK
ostenK
osten
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Lohnt sich der Einsatz von Analytics?
“…a payback of more than $6 million to date” (Alcon)“savings potential of at least € 8.5 million” (Europay)“…impact has to be in the millions“ (Salt River Project)“reduced costs by up to 50 percent” (Copenhagen Energy)“1% reduction in forecasting error can save a electricity supplier €2 million to €3 million per year” (CGE&Y)“…predicted a saving of €400,000 per year” (CartaSí )
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Was ist Information Evolution?
“Survival of the fittest”
Permanenter Prozess ohne finales Ziel
Schrittweise Veränderung hin zu optimaler Anpassung
Gesteuerte Mutation und Auslese
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
5 StufenStufe 5: InnovateStufe 4: OptimizeStufe 3: IntegrateStufe 2: ConsolidateStufe 1: Operate
4 kritische Dimensionen• Menschen• Prozesse• Kultur• Infrastruktur
Information Evolution Model Description
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Stufe 5: Innovate
Proactive, innovative thinkers with multiple roles
Extensive use of analytics to predict future outcomes and minimize risk, continuous innovationFocus “outside the box”, interdisciplinary teams, change is the norm
Adaptive information infrastructure, flexible and extensible
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Validation – IEM
Doug BuschCIO, Intel
“By using the Information Evolution Model that SAS is pioneering, enterprises can make more incisive and strategic decisions about their information investments. A structured approach such as IEM allows CIOs and their staffs to come up with an investment strategy that can mobilize the entire organization and improve communication with business stakeholders.”
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.IntelligenceIntelligence
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Industry ExpertiseIndustry Expertise
OptimizationOptimization
Predictive ModelingPredictive Modeling
ForecastingForecasting
Reporting / OLAPReporting / OLAP
Data ManagementData Management
Data AccessData Access
What will happen next?What’s the best that can happen?
How Much?How Many?
What Happened?
Analytics drive the Power of Information
Copyright © 2006, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Source: Bloor Research(September 13, 2005)
“When it comes to knowledge generation, SAS is clearly one of the leading lights in the space and intends to remain so for the foreseeable future.”
“The software created by SAS has been designed from the ground up to address the needs of data analysis, and the 28 years of its development really shows.
Analyst Validation“In the short term IDC does not see any serious challenge to SAS' dominance of the advanced analytics market and expects the company to continue to experience above market growth rates for query, reporting and analysis…”
- IDC, Worldwide Business Intelligence Tools 2005 Vendor Shares, Doc # 202603, Dan
Vesset, July 2006