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Comparing a Household Activity-Based Model with a Person Activity-Based Model
14th TRB Conference on Transportation Planning ApplicationsMay 5-9, 2013, Columbus, Ohio
John L Bowman, Mark Bradley, Joe Castiglione, Suzanne Childress, John Gibb, Chris Johnson,
Matthew Kitchen, John Long, Maren Outwater
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Context
• AB model implementation project at PSRC
• DaySim software platform• Implementing two versions
• Classic DaySim version simulates separate person days
• New version simulates coordinated household days with joint travel
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 2
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Survey Percent of Tours by Joint Type
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 3
65.7%19.4%
14.9%Non-Joint Tour
On Joint Non-Mandatory Tour
With JointMandatory Travel
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Survey Percent of Tours with Joint Travel for each Purpose
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 4
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
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Research Objective
• Compare the household version with the person version• Design (Common aspects, differences)• Operation (run time, simulated
outcomes, sensitivity tests)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 5
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Presentation Objective
• Compare the household version with the person version• Design (Common aspects, differences)• Operation (run time, simulated
outcomes, sensitivity tests)
• Describe the household version models in more detail
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 6
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Presentation Objective
• Compare the household version with the person version• Design (Common aspects,
differences)• Operation (run time, simulated
outcomes, sensitivity tests)
• Describe the household version models in more detail
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 7
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TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 8
ABTravel Demand
Simulator
Network assignment
Trips(OD matrices)
Traffic conditions
Predictions
Zones/Parcels, Networks,Households & Individuals
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Core functionalityvia shared code base
• Run control and distributed processing• I/O and data structures (households,
travel, spatial, skims)• Choice probability calculations and
simulation• Generation of control and data files for
model estimation• Time window accounting, shadow pricing
and destination sampling
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 9
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Integrated System of Choice Models
Activity-Based Models: 1993-2012 John L Bowman, Ph.D. (www.JBowman.net) 10
Long term
Day
Tour
Trip/Stop
Downward integration
Upward integration
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Presentation Objective
• Compare the household version with the person version• Design (Common aspects, differences)• Operation (run time, simulated
outcomes, sensitivity tests)
• Describe the household version models in more detail
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 11
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TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 12
Run Controller
PersonChoiceModelRunner Choice models (person version)
Choice models (household
version)HouseholdChoiceModelRunner
DaySim Software Package
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TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 13
Run Controller
Configuration FileChoiceModelRunner=”HouseholdChoiceModelRunner”
PersonChoiceModelRunner Choice models (person version)
Choice models (household
version)HouseholdChoiceModelRunner
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ChoiceModelRunnerWithin-Day Components
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 14
Day Level Models(Identify tours and stop purposes)
Tour & Trip Models(Details of each tour)
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Day Level ModelsPerson Household
Person Day Activity Pattern
Household Day Pattern Type
Person Mandatory Activities
Joint Mandatory Half Tours
Joint Non-Mandatory Tours
Person Day Activity Pattern
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Tour and Trip ModelsPerson Household
Models--Tour destination, mode, timing--Iterative within half tour: --stop generation & purpose --location, mode, timing
Simulation sequence--by purpose priority
Models--Tour destination, mode, timing--Iterative within half tour: --stop generation & purpose --location, mode, timing
Simulation sequence1. Partially joint half tours2. Fully joint half tours3. Person mandatory tours4. Joint non-mandatory tours5. Person non-mandatory tours
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Household version tour & trip models conditioned by…
• Type of tour(joint half tour, joint tour, etc)
• Information about participants on tour
• Joint time windows for joint travel• Person’s known participation in joint
travel (for individual tours)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 17
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Presentation Objective
• Compare the household version with the person version• Design (Common aspects, differences)• Operation (run time, simulated
outcomes, sensitivity tests)
• Describe the household version models in more detail
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 18
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Household Day Pattern Type (Vovsha & Bradley)
• Up to three alternative pattern type alternatives per person• Mandatory on tour• Non-mandatory on tour• At home all day
• Modeled…• jointly for up to five persons in household• Individually for additional persons
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Modeling Person Mandatory Activities
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 20
Tour Generation
Work at home?
(binary choice)
No more mandatory tours
Usual work tour, orOther work tour, or
School tour
Mandatory Stop Presence (work,
school or both)
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Joint Mandatory Half Tours• Partially joint
• To work or school locations • From• Paired (both ways)
• Fully joint• To work or school location • From• Paired (both ways)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 21
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Partially Joint Half Tour(To Work and/or School)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 22
Leavehome
Drop off Drop off
Arrive
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Partially Joint Half Tour(From Work and/or School)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 23
Arrivehome
Pick up Pick up
Depart
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Partially Joint Half Tour(Paired To and From)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 24
Arrivehome
Pick up Pick up
Depart
Leavehome
Drop off Drop off
Arrive
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Fully Joint Half Tour(To Work or School)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 25
Leavehome
Arrive
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Fully Joint Half Tour(From Work or School)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 26
Arrivehome
Depart
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Fully Joint Half Tour(Paired To and From)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 27
Arrivehome
Depart
Leavehome
Arrive
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Fully Joint Half Tour(Chauffeured To Work or School)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 28
1. Leave home
2. Arrive
3. Non-working chauffeur return home
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Fully Joint Half Tour(Chauffeured From Work or School)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 29
3. Arrive home2. Depart
1. Non-working chauffeur depart for pickup
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Fully Joint Half Tour(Paired with Chauffeur)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 30
6. Arrive home5. Depart
1. Leave home
2. Arrive
3. Non-working chauffeur return home
4. Non-working chauffeur depart for pickup
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Survey Joint Travel on School Tours
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 31
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Indi-vidual
Full FirstHalf
FullSecond
Half
Full BothHalves
PartialFirst Half
PartialSecond
Half
PartialBoth
Halves
Mix ofFull andPartial
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Survey Joint Travel on Work Tours
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 32
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Full FirstHalf
FullSecond
Half
Full BothHalves
PartialFirst Half
PartialSecond
Half
PartialBoth
Halves
Mix ofFull andPartial
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Survey Tours with Joint Half Tour Travel by Type and Household Size
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 33
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2 3 4 5 6+
Full HalfTours
Partial HalfTours
Household Size
Num
ber p
er H
H
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Modeling Joint Half Tours
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 34
Half Tour Generation
Fully Joint Half Tour
Participation
Partially Joint Half Tour
Participation
To From Paired To From Paired
Stop
Update availability
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Modeling Joint Non-Mandatory Tours
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 35
Tour Generation No more
mandatory tours
Tour for one of seven purposes
Tour Participation
(jointly for up to 5 persons)
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Household Version Development Process and Status
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 36
Develop ChoiceModelRunner logic--estimation mode--application mode
Specify and estimate choice models
Test ChoiceModelRunner logic
Tune performance of ChoiceModelRunnerRe-estimate models
Test sensitivity Replace Person Version in Travel
Model System
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Day-Level Model Coefficients
Model CategoryNumber of Coefficients
Number of Logsum
Coefficients
Household Day Pattern Type 231 25
Mandatory Activities 67 5
Joint Mandatory Half Tours 120 8
Joint Non-Mandatory Tours 126 5
Person Day Activity Pattern 424 22
Total for Day-Level Models 968 65
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 37
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TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 38
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Flexible DaySim Features accessed via configuration file
• Distributed processing• Estimation vs application mode• Spatial scale (zones, microzones,
parcels)• Skim roster (modes, submodes, time
periods, variables, VOT)• Customized data structures (via
inheritance)
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 39
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Flexible DaySim Features accessed via configuration file (cont’d)
• Short distance calculation method• Shadow pricing• VOT categories• Units (length, distance, monetary)• Choice model runner• Choice model components• Coefficient files
TRB Planning Apps Conf May 2013 Bowman, et al 40