Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltas
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Delta Alliance - Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltas
Tom Bucx (Deltares)
8 June 2011 EEA Expert meeting Methods and tools for
assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change
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Comparative assessment of the vulnerability andresilience of 10 deltas
Provide a first step towards a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of deltas
Provide a ‘Delta assessment framework’: integrating scientific, social and management knowledge and addressing future data collection on key-indicators
Support decision-making process on adaptive strategies and measures towards resilient and sustainable deltas
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Deltas studied
CaliforniaBay-Delta
Mississippi
Incomati
Nile
Rhine-MeuseDanube
Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Yangtze
Mekong
Ciliwung
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DPSIR + Spatial layers approach
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Framework for assessment
Impacts | Responses
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Towards indicators of change
Delta descriptions
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Delta description - format
Drivers of change
Pressures / potential problems
• Land and water use (occupation layer)
• Infrastructure (network layer)
• Natural resources (base layer)
Governance (institutional and organisation aspects)
Adaptive measures
Technical methods and tools
Needs for knowledge exchange and research gaps
Lessons learned
Score card
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Delta description – qualitative and quantitative info
Example: Drivers of change in Rhine-Meuse delta:
Climate change – higher peak river discharges (winter)long drought periods (summer)sea-level rise ≤ 0.65 to 1.3 m in 2100
Subsidence – Tectonic subsidence ~10 cm/century≤10 mm/year surface-lowering due to peatcompaction and oxidation
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Presure on space – population density ~500 inhabitants/km2; high pressure on space
Vulnerability to flooding – high safety levels: 1/1250 (river dikes) to 1/10,000 years (coastal defense); sea-level rise and growing investments will increase flood risk
Freshwater shortage – rising sea levels will increase salt water seepage and will cause local freshwater shortages
Delta description – qualitative and quantitative info
Example: pressures on occupation layer in Rhine-Meuse delta:
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Delta description – quantative main indicators
Example: main indicators (draft) for Rhine-Meuse Delta:
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Scorecard and related indicators
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Scorecard – ‘weighting method’
Assessment of the current and future state of the delta
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Comparative overview of delta score cards
resilience/sustainability: ++ (very good), + (good), 0 (medium), - (low), -- (very low)
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Comparative overview of delta score cards - Conclusions
For most of the deltas current resilience and sustainability is not satisfactory
Reasons differ per delta but some general mechanisms:
. An imbalance between demands and supply with regard to land and water use;
. An inadequate or ageing infrastructure in the delta;
. Disruption of the natural delta processes;
. Inadequate governance to address problems and implement solutions.
For a number of deltas the challenge is defining a comprehensive
(multi-sectoral) delta plan
The combined DPSIR-layer approach has proven to be useful
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What’s next?
. Develop set of key (quantitative) indicators
. Optimize scoring and ranking method
. Work out scenarios in more detail
. Include more deltas (Rhone, Po, Thames, …)
. Work out concrete collaborative research ideas/proposals across deltas
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Website - downloads
www.delta-alliance.org
Background information
Documents to download:
• Synthesis report
• Working document (with full delta descriptions)
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Thank you
Questions?
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Project team