Comparative Economics of Carbon Capture into Alternative ...
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ICL AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO …fkd/courses/egee580/2010/Final... ·...
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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ICL AS
AN ALTERNATIVE TO CRUDE OIL
EME 580 - Spring 2010
Yesica Alvarez
Vamsi Karri
Enette Louw
Sarah Luchner
Orin Moyer
Emanuela Peduzzi
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When the US can no longer rely on our current
sources of crude oil, how will a domestic indirect coal
to syncrude plant compare to other US crude oil
alternatives for the transportation sector?
Problem Statement
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Project Scope
ICL plant location and feedstock selection
Technology selection
Aspen Simulation
Economic analysisEnvironmental
analysis
Alternative Fuel Comparison
Energy/Exergy analysis
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Aspen Plus simulation
of designed CTL plant
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Final CTL plant simulation
Gasifier
Fischer
Tropsch
Gas cooling and cleanup
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Aspen - Gasifier
32 bar and 1600⁰C
90 t/hr
191 t/hr
95% Oxygen
85.9 t/hr
Steam at 250°C
25.5 t/hr
39.8MW
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Aspen – Gas cleanup
COOLSYNGFILTGAS
FILTSOL
COSFREESWEETGAS
H2SOUT
O2CLAUS
TOCATPRO
COLDH2O1
STEAM3
COLDGAS SULFOUT
FILTER1
COSHYDRO
H2SSEP
THCLAUS
COOLER
CATCLAUSCO2
Reaction:COS + H2O = CO2 + H2S
Conditions: 150⁰C, 30bar
Reaction:H2S + 1.5 O2 = SO2 + H2O
Conditions: 1200⁰C, 1bar
Reaction:2H2S + SO2 = 0.375S8 + 2H2O
Conditions: 240⁰C, 1bar
Selexol (ideal)
1.44 t/hr S
166.8 t/hr
22.0 t/hr 2.6 t/hr
191 t/hr
0.36 t/hr COS
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Aspen – F.T. Synthesis
Kinetic model from Fernandes 1
Assuming steady-state
operation and isothermal
conditions *
Valid for multi-tubular fixed bed 2
[1] Fernandes, F. A. N. and E. M. M. Sousa (2006). "Fischer-Tropsch synthesis product grade optimization in a fluidized bed
reactor." AIChE Journal 52(8): 2844-2850.
[2] Van der Laan, G. P. and A. A. C. M. Beenackers (1999). "Kinetics and selectivity of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis: A literature
review." Catalysis Reviews-Science and Engineering 41(3-4): 255-318
2 bar and 270⁰C
29.7 t/hr
117.0 t/hr
166.8 t/hr
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XTL simulations
CTL
Feed 100% Coal
Syngas
composition
CO: 59.5%
H2: 30.7%
FT product 29.6 t/hr
Efficiency 51.2%
BTL
Feed 100%
Switchgrass
Syngas
composition
CO: 41.6%
H2: 36.5%
FT product 17.8 t/hr
Efficiency 50.8%
CBTL
Feed 25% BM
75% Coal
Syngas
composition
CO: 53.3%
H2: 33.1%
FT product 29.2 t/hr
Efficiency 51.3%
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Sensitivity Analysis - Aspen
GasifierSensitivity OXIDANT Results Summary
Oxygen flow rate KG/SEC
Mol
e F
raction
15.016.017.018.019.020.021.022.023.024.025.026.027.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.036.037.038.039.040.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
GH2O
GCO
GH2
GCO2
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Sensitivity Analysis - Aspen
Fischer TropschSensitivity OXIDANT Results Summary
Oxygen KG/SEC
Mol
e F
raction
14.0 16.5 19.0 21.5 24.0 26.5 29.0 31.5 34.0 36.5 39.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
FTH2O
FTCO
FTCO2
FTUND
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Energy and Exergy Analysis
of designed CTL plant
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Main Sections of the Aspen Simulation
Gasifier
Ash Cooling
Gas Cooling and CleaningFT synthesis
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Mass flow diagram
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Energy Flow Diagram
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Exergy Flow Diagram
To=25°C
po=1 bar
Ideal gas
B=Bchem+Bphys+DGmix
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Energy Analysis
Energy LossesEnergy Input
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Exergy Analysis
Exergy Input Exergy Losses
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0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
-15 5 25
eff
icie
ncy
Oxygen variation %
Oxygen Sensitivity
energy efficiency
chemical efficiency
rational efficiency
chemical exergy efficiency
Gasifier Sensitivity Analysis
An example, oxygen:
Energy Efficiencies for well insulated gasifiers
are very high ~1 [1]
Rational Efficiencies lower than Energy ones
~ 0.8 [1]
O2 sensitivity shows a decreasing trend of
the chemical and rational efficiencies. T=1873K
P=30bar
Base case:
~25kg/s of Coal
~24 kg/s of 95% oxygen
[1] Mark J. Prins “From coal to biomass gasification: Comparison of thermodynamic efficiency”, Energy, 2004
outputenergy
inputenergyefficiencyenergy
_
__
outputenergychemical
inputenergychemicalefficiencychemical
__
___
outputexergy
inputexergyefficiencyexergy
_
__
outputexergy
inputexergyefficiencyexergy
_
__
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Environmental Analysis
of designed CTL plant
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CO2 Emissions
Considerations
Purity of captured CO2 streams is
quite good
90% of the impurities in FT
Synthesis „Fluegas‟ is nitrogen
Source Purity (%)
Gasifier – post Selexol 99
FT Synthesis 95.28
Table. Summary of CO2 emissions from CTL plant
Figure. Sources of CO2 emissions in CTL plant
CO2 TOTAL
PRODUCED
TOTAL CAPTURE
READY
TOTAL PRODUCED
(Kreutz et al, 2008)
kg CO2 eq/GJ fuel (HHV) 102.9 85.0 99.0
~28,000 tonnes/day
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Effect of Feedstock in Overall CO2 Emissions:
CTL, BTL, Co-firing
Coal, 102.9
Biomass, (6.7)
Co-fired, 86.2
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
kg C
O2/G
J o
f FT p
rodu
ct
Figure. CO2 emissions from various feedstock configurations
25 w% Biomass
75 w% Coal
Assuming a biomass storage capacity = 17.2 kg Ceq/GJ HHV.
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Figure. Allocation of water usage in CTL plant
Water Usage
gal water/gal FT liqLiterature
gal water/gal FtliqReference
Water recycled in plant 7.70 -
Water replaced/consumed 0.85 1.03 [1]
Water usage in the plant 8.55 7.30, 8-10 [4], [5]
Table. Summary of water usage & distribution in CTL plant
Net consumption = Make-up water (3% total) + consumed process water
Perc
enta
ge o
f to
tal w
ater
usa
ge
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Waste Management
Bulk mass of waste comes as
Ash slag
Fly ash
Concerns
Water leaching: hazardous to groundwater resources
Slag is less susceptible to leaching than bottom ash
Management
Landfill disposal, ash-ponds (trouble)
Recycling of ash (cement industry)
Solid waste lines Content From Equipment Tonnes/day kg ash-slag/bbl FTliq
COOLASH ash slag Slagging Gasifier 1808.0 36.71
FILTSOL fly ash Particulate filter 9.4 0.19
Table. Solid waste production from CTL plant
Source: http://www.charah.com/
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Policy Prospects for CTL
Possible barriers for CTL
Remaining Uncertainties
Production costs
Management of GHG Emissions (CCS development)
Crude oil prices (competitiveness with conventional fuels)
Lack of effective policies to reduce GHG emissions will likely
hold back government support
Future government
policies & environmental
regulations
May promote or
discourage early
investment from the private
sector for CTL projects
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Policy Prospects for CTL (cont.)
Policy Incentives for CTL
Subsidies
Investment-tax credits (financial help from the beginning of the
project at government‟s expense)
Production subsidies (favoring alternative vs conventional fuels)
Petroleum taxes
Price Floors
Encourages private investment for CTL by removing the financial
constrains at times of low crude oil prices
Income Sharing
Beneficial for the government at times of high crude-oil prices to
recover public funds from promoting CTL
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Economic Analysis
of designed CTL plant
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Economic Model Considerations
Input categories
Financing
Escalation factors
Technical design criteria
General facility parameters
Contingency factors
12% discount rate
Major Outputs
Net Present Value (NPV)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Payback Period
Year to year “At Hand” and “Discounted” Cash Flows
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Model Input Parameters
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Sources
Aspen simulation and exergy analysis
Thermal efficiency
Coal and oxygen requirements
Fisher Tropsch product quality and distribution
DOE and NETL reports
Coal, electricity, and crude oil escalation,
Generally accepted debt to equity ratios
DOE reports
Facility lifetimes
Scaling and contingency factors
Capacity utilization factors
Fixed maintenance and start up costs
IRS 15 year Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) depreciation schedule for gasification facilities
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Year – to – Year Cash Flows
Escalation & Depreciation
Expenses
Sales
Income & Taxes
Loan Interest
Year-to-year Cash Flow
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Sensitivity Analysis
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
General Inflation (%)
Construction Financing (%)
Electricity Costs (cents/kWh)
Coal Escalation (%)
Loan Interest (%)
Debt to Equity Ratio (% Debt)
Delivered Coal Price ($/ton)
Project Lifetime (yrs)
O&M Costs (%)
Contingency Factor (%)
Naphtha Value (% crude)
Diesel to Naphtha Ratio (% diesel)
Tax Rate (%)
Crude Escalation (%)
ULSD Value (% crude)
Capacity Factor (%)
Market Crude Value ($/bbl)
Change in ROI (percentage points)
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Economic Scenarios
Scenarios not run
Less than a three percentage effect on ROI
Loan interest
coal and electricity escalation
base year electricity costs
general inflation
Lesser degree of uncertainty
Capacity factor
ULSD premiums
tax rates
ratio of diesel to naphtha product
O&M costs
Delivered price of coal.
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Economic Scenarios (cont.)
Scenario 1: Base Case Scenario representing the required market value of crude oil to achieve 20% ROI. The payback period was calculated from this scenario.
Scenario 2: The effect of plant lifetime on required market value and ROI
Scenario 3: The effect of contingency factor
Scenario 4: CCS
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Base Case (Scenario 1)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
$80 $90 $100 $110 $120
Market Crude Value
Re
turn
on
In
ve
stm
en
t
March, 2010 Crude Oil Price
$82 / bbl
20% ROI
Required Crude Oil Price
~$97 / bbl
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Payback Period
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Year
Cu
mu
lati
ve
At
Ha
nd
Ca
sh
Flo
w (
MM
$)
Payback Period: 10 yrs
(Base Scenario)
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Plant Lifetime (Scenario 2)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
$80 $85 $90 $95 $100 $105 $110 $115 $120
Market Crude Value
Re
turn
on
In
ve
stm
en
t
30 yr lifetime
(~$97 / bbl)
20% ROI
24 yr lifetime
(~$103 / bbl)
36 yr lifetime
(~94 / bbl)
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Contingency Factors (Scenario 3)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
$80 $85 $90 $95 $100 $105 $110 $115 $120
Market Crude Value
Re
turn
on
In
ve
stm
en
t
25% Contingency
(~$97 / bbl)
10% Contingency
(~$86 / bbl)
20% ROI
Considers uncertainties of pioneer plants vs. a plant of nth
design (3rd or 4th of its kind).
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CCS (Scenario 4)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
$80 $90 $100 $110 $120
Market Crude Value
Re
turn
on
In
ve
stm
en
t
March, 2010 Crude Oil Price
$82 / bbl
20% ROI
Required Crude Oil Price
~$102 / bbl
Assumes $7 / ton to compress and transport CO2
( 2200psi & 200 miles )
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Alternative Fuel Comparisons
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ICL Plant Comparisons
Compared on an energy, economic and
environmental basis
Two methods
1. Literature sources
2. GREET - Greenhouse gases, Regulated
Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation
– Free software from Argonne National
Laboratories
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Comparison nomenclatures
Our plant:
Indirect coal liquefaction diesel (ICL diesel)
Indirect biomass liquefaction diesel (IBL diesel)
To other transportation fuels
Petroleum diesel @ $100/barrel of crude oil (Petro diesel)
Petroleum gasoline @ $100/barrel of crude oil (Petro gas)
Biodiesel soy and woody biomass (B100)
Ethanol from corn (E85)
Compresses natural gas, 200bar (CNG)
Synthetic natural gas from IGCC, 200bar (SNG)
Hydrogen from NG internal combustion at 200bar (H2 NG ICE)
Hydrogen from NG in a 80kW fuel cell vehicle, 200bar (H2 NG FCV)
Hydrogen from wind energy in 80kW fuel cell vehicle, 200bar (H2 WE FCV)
Electricity from fossil fuels in a 80kW electric vehicle (FF BEV)
Electricity from photovoltaic energy in a 80kW electric vehicle (PV BEV)
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GREET modeling
INPUTS OUTPUTS
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CO2 emissions from GREET modeling
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
ICL diesel
Petro gas
Petro diesel
CNG E85 H2 NG ICE
B100 FF BEV H2 NG FCV
Gra
ms
of
CO
2/m
ile
Feedstock Fuel Production Vehicle Operation
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Fuel economies and production efficiencies
ASPENplus Software; GREET Software
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/
“Ethanol fuels: Energy security, economics, and the environment" Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics Issue Volume 4, Number 1 March, 1991 Pages 1-13
"Liquid transportation fuels from coal and biomass" America’s Energy Future Panel on Alternative Liquid Transportation Fuels, THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC www.nap.edu
David Pimentel and Tad W. Patzek "Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass, and Wood; Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower" Natural Resources Research,
Vol. 14, No. 1, March 2005 pages 65-76
WELL-TO-WHEELS ANALYSIS OF FUTURE AUTOMOTIVE FUELS AND POWERTRAINS IN THE EUROPEAN CONTEXT TANK-to-WHEELS Report Version 3, October
2008Thomas, C. E., Fuel cell and battery electric vehicles compared. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 2009, 34 (15), 6005-6020.
Yan, X. Y.; Inderwildi, O. R.; King, D. A., Biofuels and synthetic fuels in the US and China: A review of Well-to-Wheel energy use and greenhouse gas emissions with the impact
of land-use change. Energy & Environmental Science 3 (2), 190-197.
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
ICL diesel
IBL diesel
Petro diesel
Petro gas
B100 E85 corn
E85 SG SNG CNG H2 NG ICE
H2 NG FC
H2 WE FC
PV BEV FF BEV
Well-t
o-p
um
p E
ffic
iency
Mile/g
allon
(M
ile/k
W f
or
FC
& B
EV
)
Well-to-pump efficiency
Mile/ gallon (or kW)
Mile/kW
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Economic and other comparisons
"Liquid transportation fuels from coal and biomass" America’s Energy Future Panel on Alternative Liquid Transportation Fuels, THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
David Pimentel and Tad W. Patzek "Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass, and Wood; Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower" Natural Resources Research, Vol. 14, No. 1,
March 2005 pages 65-76
www,eia.doe.gov/steo ; llinoisgasprices.com ; cngprices.com ; e85prices.com/illinois
Thomas, C. E., Fuel cell and battery electric vehicles compared. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 2009, 34 (15), 6005-6020.
Kromer M, Heywood J. Electric power trains: opportunities and challenges in the US light-duty vehicle fleet. Sloan Automotive Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; May 2007.
Publication No. LFEE 2007-03 RP.
Hesterberg, T. W.; Lapin, C. A.; Bunn, W. B., A Comparison of Emissions from Vehicles Fueled with Diesel or Compressed Natural Gas. Environmental Science & Technology 2008, 42 (17),
Other consideration examples:
Environmental - 1 liter of ethanol -13 liters of wastewater; B100 - High NOx
Energy - Farming considerations: Corn-9438 kWh/ha; Soy-4357 kWh/ha
Economic – FC vehicles cost an average of $3,600 more with an average
fuel cell costing 121$/m2
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
ICL diesel Petro diesel
Petro gas B100 E85 CNG H2 NG ICE
H2 NG FC FF BEV
$/1
00
miles Pump-to-wheel fuel prices
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Conclusions
An indirect coal liquefaction plant in the US was simulated
and results appeared comparable to the literature.
Efficiency = 50%
ROI ICL = 20% @ $97/bbl ($102/bbl w CCS)
Emissions CO2 = 102.9 kgCO2/GJ fuel
ICL appears to be technically and economically sufficient to
develop in the US and the main constraint at the moment
is the environmental impact from CO2 emissions
compared to other transportation options.
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THANK YOU
QUESTIONS?
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F.T. model
Assumptions:Steady-state operation; isothermal conditions; large-bubble flow in plug-flow regime
due to its velocity; assumption of hydrocarbon products in the gas and liquid phases to
be in equilibrium at the reactor outlet; negligible mass and heat transfer resistances
between the catalyst and the liquid; location of the gas-liquid mass transfer limitation
in the liquid phase; intrinsic kinetics for FT synthesis
Kinetic parameters
[1] Fernandes, F. A. N. and E. M. M. Sousa (2006). "Fischer-Tropsch synthesis product grade optimization in a fluidized bed
reactor." AIChE Journal 52(8): 2844-2850.