Comparative Analysis Metro/County Contexts

MAKING CONNECTIONS SITES

Tom KingsleyThe Urban Institute

March 1, 2007

Knowledge of context important

In program planning and interpreting results

Examples: - Setting employment targets in fast growing vs. sluggish or

declining labor markets - Addressing isolation in metros where segregation is high vs. low - Planning homeownership promotion in markets where prices are high and acceleratIng vs. low and declining

Compare conditions/trends in the 1990s with those since 2000

Data from many sources:BLS/LAUS; Census/ACS; FBI and CDC; HMDA

Five major topics - Economy and labor market - Demographic change - Income and poverty - Social conditions - Housing and mortgage markets

Economy and labor marketGrowth slowed since 1990s - San Antonio & Des Moines fastest growth now vs. Oakland & Denver in 1990s- Both periods: Seattle high, Milwaukee & Louisville low

Demographic ChangeHispanic share growing everywhere - Fastest where most concentrated: San Antonio & Denver

Income and PovertyDisturbing increase – child poverty - Highest rates: Milwaukee, Providence, San Antonio- Largest increases: Providence, Milwaukee, Louisville, Denver

Income and PovertyBroad range in segregation by race, income - Milwaukee, Hartford among most segregated metros in U.S. - Seattle, San Antonio, Des Moines below average, 100 metros

Social ConditionsImprovement teen birth share – all sites - Recent declines same pace as in 1990s- 2001 shares highest in San Antonio, Milwaukee, Denver- Fastest improvement: Louisville, Oakland, Indianapolis, Denver

Social ConditionsRanking some sites reasonably consistent across categories - Examples; Des Moines, Seattle at high end; Milwaukee, at low end- But some have varied placements: Oakland, Hartford

Child Economic % 25+ yrs Teen preg. Violent pov.rate segregat. no H.S. rate crime rate

2004 2000 2004 Ave.2000-02 2004

Best DesMoines Seattle Seattle Seattle Providence

Hartford DesMoines DesMoines Oakland Hartford

Seattle SanAntonio Hartford DesMoines Des Moines

Oakland Oakland Oakland Hartford Seattle

Indianap. Indianap. Indianap. Providence Louisville

Louisville Louisville Milwaukee Louisville Milwaukee

Denver Denver Louisville Indianap. San Antonio

SanAntonio Providence Denver Denver Oakland

Providence Hartford SanAntonio Milwaukee Denver

Worst Milwaukee Milwaukee Providence SanAntonio Indianap.

Note: Horizontal line between sites = national average

Housing and mortgage marketsHomeownership rate up everywhere - Highest levels (above 2/3) in Des Moines, Hartford, Louisville- Fastest increases: Denver, Des Moines, Hartford, Indianapolis

Housing and mortgage marketsHome purchase affordability under duress - Oakland home value 6.8 times income; San Antonio only 2.2- MC average 2004 ratio 3.7 in 2004, up from 2.8 in 2000

Homeown. Home value/ Rent >30% % loansrate income of income subprime2004 2004 2004 2004

Best DesMoines SanAntonio DesMoines DesMoines

Hartford DesMoines SanAntonio Milwaukee

Louisville Indianap. Hartford Louisville

SanAntonio Louisville Indianap. SanAntonio

Indianap. Milwaukee Seattle Hartford

Seattle Hartford Louisville Indianap.

Denver Providence Providence Seattle

Oakland Denver Milwaukee Denver

Providence Seattle Denver Oakland

Worst Milwaukee Oakland Oakland Providence

Note: Horizontal line between sites = national average

Housing and mortgage marketsAgain some place consistently across categories – others not - Consistent: Des Moines at high end; Oakland at low end