COMPANY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2016 - InterforBbf North American Lumber Production by Company - 2015 4th...

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COMPANY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2016

Transcript of COMPANY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2016 - InterforBbf North American Lumber Production by Company - 2015 4th...

Page 1: COMPANY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2016 - InterforBbf North American Lumber Production by Company - 2015 4th LARGEST LUMBER PRODUCER -0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 ... Q3-2016 includes

COMPANY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2016

Page 2: COMPANY UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2016 - InterforBbf North American Lumber Production by Company - 2015 4th LARGEST LUMBER PRODUCER -0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 ... Q3-2016 includes

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This presentation contains information and statements that are forward-looking in nature, including, but not limited to, statements containing the words “will”, “is expected”, “forecast”, “annualized”, “target” and similar expressions. Such statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause Interfor’s actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by those forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, among others: price volatility; competition; availability and cost of log supply; natural or man-made disasters; foreign currency exchange fluctuations; changes in government regulation; export and other trade barriers; environmental and community matters; labour disruptions; and other factors referenced herein and in Interfor’s current Annual Report and Management’s Discussion & Analysis, both available on www.sedar.com. The forward-looking information and statements contained in this presentation are based on Interfor’s current expectations and beliefs. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information or statements. Interfor undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking information or statements, except where required by law.

FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

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INTERFOR’S FOUR REGIONS

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North American Lumber Production by Company - 2015 Bbf

4th LARGEST LUMBER PRODUCER

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Source - Wood Markets Monthly March 2016 - Capacity

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Building Value Growth by Acquisition

Operational Excellence

INTERFOR STRATEGIC PLAN

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RAYMOND JAMES

U.S. SOUTH CONFERENCE - PERRY SAWMILL TOUR

September 30, 2015 LUMBER MARKETS

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7 (1) By value for YTD Q2-2016

Lumber Sales By Species 1

Western Dimension

Cedar

Southern Yellow Pine

Lodge Pole Pine

INTERFOR’S DIVERSE LUMBER MIX

Doug Fir/

Larch 30%

Hem-Fir

10% Spruce-Pine-Fir

9%

Southern

Yellow Pine 35%

Cedar

12%

Lodge Pole/

Ponderosa Pine 4%

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Lumber Sales By Market 1

NORTH AMERICAN DRIVEN BUSINESS

Canada

6%

China/Tw/HK

4%

Other

3%

Japan

10%

USA

77%

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BENCHMARK LUMBER PRICE TRENDS

$225

$250

$275

$300

$325

$350

$375

$400

$425

$450

$475

SYP Composite

WSPF Composite

2013 2014

Q1’16

SYP $400 SPF $350

SYP $385 SPF $350

2015

SYP $357 SPF $279

SYP $363 SPF $262

US/Mbf

Source: Random Lengths (1) Q3-2016 includes prices up to August 26, 2016.

Q2’16

SYP $390 SPF $300

Q3’16 (1)

SYP $386 SPF $315

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10 (1) Source: Forest Economic Advisors (FEA) forecast published August 10, 2016

KEY MARKET DRIVERS

2014(1)2015

(1)2016E(1) 2017E(1)

US Housing Starts - Total (mm) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3

Change +11% +6% +8%

US Housing Starts - Single Family (mm) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Change +10% +12% +10%

NA Lumber Consumption (Bft) 49.0 51.9 53.7 56.3

Change +6% +3% +5%

NA Offshore Exports (Bft) 7.6 6.9 6.8 6.8

Change -9% -2% -0%

NA Offshore Imports (Bft) 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3

Change +20% +48% +25%

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OPERATIONS OVERVIEW

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US South Dimension Mills

BC Interior Dimension Mills

Specialty Mills

US NW Stud Mills

• 9 dimension mills in Georgia, S. Carolina and Arkansas • Low cost wood baskets • Strong geographic fit/significant operational upside

• 3 dimension mills in BC southern interior • Modern/low cost operations • Good fiber supply/limited exposure to pine beetle

• 3 stud mills in Washington State and Oregon • Efficient/modern operations • Margins are more variable than other regions

• 3 specialty mills in BC Coast and Oregon • High value products (eg. cedar, Japanese squares and pine boards) • More stable prices

BUSINESS COMPARISONS

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BC INTERIOR DIMENSION MILLS

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Mountain Pine Beetle Cumulative Percentage of Merchantable Forest Volume Killed Since 1999

Very High (>45%)

High (31-45%)

Moderate (16-30%)

Low (<16%)

None (0%)

Adams Lake

Castlegar

Grand Forks

Source: BC Ministry of Forests

BC INTERIOR OVERVIEW

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Adams Lake, BC

2008-09 2012 2015

Castlegar, BC Grand Forks, BC

BC INTERIOR MODERNIZATION

• 3 MODERN MILLS IN GOOD FIBER BASKETS • RE-INVESTMENTS ARE COMPLETE

• SIGNIFICANTLY REPOSITIONED THE ASSETS • STRONG CASH FLOW AND ROI

• TOP DECILE/QUARTILE EBITDA MARGINS FOR THE BC INTERIOR

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US SOUTH DIMENSION MILLS

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• Invested over US$400 million since March 2013

• 5 acquisitions

• 9 mills

• 1.3 Billion feet of lumber capacity across 3 States

• Largest lumber producer in Georgia

• 44% of Interfor’s capacity is in the South

US SOUTH OVERVIEW

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ACQUIRED ASSETS...NOW REPOSITIONING THE BUSINESS

2013-15 2016-17

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

• Acquire Assets • Build Team/Infrastructure • Mill Improvements • Targeted Capex

• Mill Improvements • Optimization • Modest Capex

US SOUTH: STARTED UP IN 2013

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Each circle is a 50 mile radius.

LOGISTICS – RIGHT LOG TO RIGHT MILL

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US South Competitive Advantages

- Log Costs

- Labor Rates

US South Relative Performance

- Lumber recovery

- Cash conversion costs

- Product mix/quality/mills nets

Non-Controllables Controllables

Interfor’s 2016/17 goal is to capture a significant portion of the opportunities in the US South operations:

• >$30/mfbm = >$35 mm/year(1)

• Minor capital required Longer term initiatives will involve selected strategic capital investments

US SOUTH OPPORTUNITY

(1) Based on flat lumber prices and fx versus Q1-2016.

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FINANCIAL REVIEW

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HISTORICAL FINANCIAL RESULTS

390 418

447 470 495

582 567 578 639

672 618

568 618 637

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 2015 2016

$37.1 $36.1

$24.6

$36.2 $39.2

$47.3 $45.4

$37.4

$31.8

$12.7 $11.5

$35.8 $33.4

$56.9

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 2015 2016

Interfor Adjusted EBITDA (C$mm)

Benchmark Lumber Prices ($/Mbf) Interfor Production Volumes (Mmbf)

$250

$270

$290

$310

$330

$350

$370

$390

$410

$430

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 2015 2016

WSPF Composite (US$/Mbf)

WSPF Composite (C$/Mbf)

SYP Composite (US$/Mbf)

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(1) Includes depreciation of plant & equipment and depletion & amortization of logging roads, timbers and other. (2) Includes additions to property, plant and equipment, additions to logging roads and additions to timbers and

other intangible assets. (3) Does not include additions arising from acquisitions.

$mm

CAPITAL SPENDING PROFILE

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization(1) Capital Expenditures(2,3)

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• Weighted average interest rate < 4%.

• At Jun 30, 2016 - available liquidity of $181 mm.

• Substantial tax loss carry-forwards – approx. $125 mm in Canada and US$180 mm in the US.

• No significant employee future benefit obligations.

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CAPITAL STRUCTURE

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

Prudential Notes (4.17%)

$mm Debt Maturity Schedule

As of Jun 30, 2016

Drawings on Bank

Lines

Net Debt (C$mm) $396

Book Equity (C$mm) $727

Invested Capital (C$mm) $1,123

Net Debt / Invested Capital 35%

Net Debt/EBITDA (LTM/Q2 Annualized) 2.9/1.7x

EBITDA/Interest Expense (LTM/Q2) 6.7/11.5x

Capital Structure As of Jun 30, 2016

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NET DEBT PROFILE

US$175

US$281

US$345 US$344 US$327 US$330

US$304

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

Dec 31'14 Mar 31'15 Jun 30'15 Sep 30'15 Dec 31'15 Mar 31'16 Jun 30'16

Net Debt – US$ mm

•Monticello acquisition •Castlegar

capex

•Simpson acquisition

•Free cash flow (net of Castlegar capex)

•Free cash flow

US$(1)

ND/Cap 24%

ND/Cap 34%

ND/Cap 38%

ND/Cap 39%

ND/Cap 38%

•Seasonal working capital

US$3

ND/Cap 38%

•Free cash flow

US$(26)

ND/Cap 35%

US

$m

m

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26 (1) Excludes the impact from market price changes as compared to Q1-2016.

SUMMARY

• 3 modern mills in BC Interior

• Margin improvement initiatives focused on the US South: $35 mm annualized EBITDA impact by 2017 (1)

• “Capital light” approach for 2016

Strong Asset Base With Significant

Upside

• Debt maturities termed out to 2019-2026

• Low cost debt

• $181 mm of liquidity

• Proceeds from Tacoma sale expected in 2H 2016

Prudent Capital Structure

• North American housing starts continue to improve

• Industry supply chain appears to be in balance

• Demand dynamics are positive

Improving Industry Fundamentals