Company Presentation · 2021. 2. 12. · INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and Coverage Coverage ratio...

14
Presentation Company February 11, 2021 AR Partners

Transcript of Company Presentation · 2021. 2. 12. · INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and Coverage Coverage ratio...

Page 1: Company Presentation · 2021. 2. 12. · INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and Coverage Coverage ratio continued to increase in October and November. LLP decreased 105% 104% 128% 136% 147%

PresentationCompany

February 11, 2021

AR Partners

Page 2: Company Presentation · 2021. 2. 12. · INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and Coverage Coverage ratio continued to increase in October and November. LLP decreased 105% 104% 128% 136% 147%

Disclaimer

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statementsthat reflect the current views and/or expectations of GrupoSupervielle and its management with respect to itsperformance, business and future events. We use words suchas “believe,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “expect,” “intend,” “target,”“estimate,” “project,” “predict,” “forecast,” “guideline,” “seek,”“future,” “should” and other similar expressions to identifyforward-looking statements, but they are not the only way weidentify such statements. Such statements are subject to anumber of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. We cautionyou that a number of important factors could cause actualresults to differ materially from the plans, objectives,expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in thisrelease. Actual results, performance or events may differmaterially from those in such statements due to, withoutlimitation, (i) changes in general economic, financial, business,political, legal, social or other conditions in Argentina orelsewhere in Latin America or changes in either developed oremerging markets, (ii) changes in regional, national andinternational business and economic conditions, includinginflation, (iii) changes in interest rates and the cost of deposits,which may, among other things, affect margins, (iv)unanticipated increases in financing or other costs or theinability to obtain additional debt or equity financing onattractive terms, which may limit our ability to fund existingoperations and to finance new activities, (v) changes ingovernment regulation, including tax and banking regulations,(vi) changes in the policies of Argentine authorities, (vii)adverse legal or regulatory disputes or proceedings, (viii)competition in banking and financial services, (ix) changes inthe financial condition, creditworthiness or solvency of thecustomers, debtors or counterparties of Grupo Supervielle, (x)

increase in the allowances for loan losses, (xi) technologicalchanges or an inability to implement new technologies,(xii) changes in consumer spending and saving habits, (xiii) theability to implement our business strategy and (xiv) fluctuationsin the exchange rate of the Peso. The matters discussed hereinmay also be affected by risks and uncertainties described fromtime to time in Grupo Supervielle’s filings with the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and ComisionNacional de Valores (CNV). Readers are cautioned not to placeundue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speakonly as the date of this document. Grupo Supervielle is underno obligation and expressly disclaims any intention or obligationto update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether asa result of new information, future events or otherwise.Statements about the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on thefirm´s business results,, financial position and liquidity as wellas on Argentina and worldwide economies are subject to therisk that the actual impact may differ, possibly materially, fromwhat is currently expected. Unless otherwise indicated, allfinancial information of our company included in thispresentation is stated in terms of the measuring unit current atthe end of the reporting period.

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Contents

Q&A

Macro & Industry Trends

SUPV Highlights

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Contents Macro & Industry Trends

Page 5: Company Presentation · 2021. 2. 12. · INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and Coverage Coverage ratio continued to increase in October and November. LLP decreased 105% 104% 128% 136% 147%

4

CHALLENGING MACRO FURTHER IMPACTED BY COVID-19

70

120

170

jun.-17 feb.-18 oct.-18 jun.-19 feb.-20 oct.-20

Economic Indicator (MoM var)

Industrial Production

Favorable base effect and better external conditions may help in 2021….

…while Government showing signals of fiscal restraint for 2021…

…fiscal deficit financed byhigher monetary expansion and issuance of

treasury bonds in the internal market…

50,0

70,0

90,0

110,0

130,0

150,0

170,0

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

FX Blue Chip Swap Rate

As of February 9, 2021Source: BCRA, Bloomberg

75% gap

…while the gap of the Blue Chip Swap rate vs the FX rate continued at a high level……

-6.4-4.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul AugSep Oct NovDec 2021( e )

… putting pressure on recent monthly inflation and in expected inflation for 2021 …..

52,9

50,348,4

45,643,4 42,8 42,4

40,7

36,6 37,235,8

36,1

50,0

2,32,0

3,3

1,5 1,5

2,21,9

2,7

2,8

3,8

3,2

4,0

Jan Mar May July Sep Nov 2021 (e)

YoY Inflation Monthly Inflation

Source: Monthly Inflation – INDEC, REM BCRA January 2021

1.6931.860 1.941

2.168 2.181 2.1492.304 2.329 2.313 2.319 2.338 2.425

2.582

26%38%

48%64%62%60%

67%77%72%67%

49%40%

53%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ene21Monetary Base YoY avg growth

Source: Company Estimates based on Minister of Economy Information2021 ( e ): Budget. Ministry of Economy

Source: BCRA

Fiscal Deficit / GDP [%]

Source Indec. Base 2004. Industrial Production as of December 20, Economic Indicator as of November 20 .

5548

40 3837 3843,8

19,0 24,027,0

30,032.0

36.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

Leliq Repo (1D) Repo (7D)

….and interest rates remained unchanged and set by the Central Bank…

Dec 30, 19 – Feb 5, 21Source: BCRA

Favorable external conditions could help in 2021

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5

INDUSTRY LOANS EVOLUTION

AR$ system loan demand expanded slightly above inflation in 4Q due to increase in credit cards and in loans at subsidized rates

Loans to Private Sector [AR$ Bill. in Nominal terms]

Loans to Private Sector [Original Currency]

2.426 2.474 2.556 2.770 2.933 3.230 3.288

87,5 92,2 92,2100,3

102,8

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 Jan 21Loans to Private Sector SUPV loans (AR$ Bn)

+3.3%+2.0% +5.8%+8.4%

+8.4%+0.1%+5.5%

+2.5%+21%

+17%

1.654 1.857 1.979 2.265 2.481 2.781 2.845

62,1 70,7 71,0 80,0 85,1

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 Jan 21AR$ Loans Supv AR$ Loans

AR$ Loans [in AR$ Bn. in Original Currency]

+13.9% +0.4%

+12.7%

+12.2% +9.6%+14.4%+6.6%

+6.4%

Source: BCRA …% QoQ or MoM variation

+50%

+37%

U$S Loans [in US$ Bn.]

13,4 10,3 8,9 7,2 5,9 5,3 5,1

0,4 0,40,3 0,3

0,2

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 Jan 21

U$S Loans Supv U$S Loans

-47%

-56%

-23.1%-13.3% -19.7% -17.5%

-19.1% -8.0% -12.5%-19.3%

+10.1%

+12.1% -9.8%

+31% YoY

+50% YoY

-48% YoY

+1.8%

+2.3% -5.0%

Inflation11.3% in 4Q2036.1% in 2020

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6

INDUSTRY DEPOSITS EVOLUTION

AR$ system deposits slightly below inflation in 4Q20, while US$ deposit outflows continued. High liquidity levels in both currencies

Source: BCRA …% QoQ or MoM variation

22% 24% 22% 25% 25%

45% 42% 40% 40% 40%

31% 32% 32% 32% 31%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 Oct NovChecking Accounts Saving Accounts Time Deposits

Private Banks Deposits – Private Sector [%]

3.681 3.936 4.634 5.521 5.863 6.465 6.617

102,1 89,0138,0

162,5 170,3

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 Jan 21Total Deposits

-12.8% +55.1%+17.8%

+4.8%

+19.1%+6.9% +17.7% +6.2%

Private Sector Deposits [AR$ Bill. in Nominal terms]

Private Sector Deposits [Original Currency]

Source: BCRA …% QoQ or MoM variation

AR$ Deposits [in AR$ Bn. in Original Currency]

2.450 2.771 3.465 4.339 4.633 5.114 5.251

75,5 65,7114,0 139,9 148,1

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 Jan 21AR$ Deposits Supv AR$ Deposits

+89%+96%

13.0%+73.5%

+22.7% +5.9%

+13.1% +25.0%+25.2% +6.8%

21,4 19,4 18,1 16,8 16,1 15,9 15,6

0,50,4 0,4 0,3 0,3

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 Jan 21U$S Deposits Supv U$S Deposits

U$S Deposits [in US$ Bn.]

-24%

-37%

-15.7% -4.3% -13.8% -9.6%

-3.8%-7.5%-6.8%-9.1%

+59%

+67%

+10.1%

+10.4%-1.3%

+64% YoY

+85% YoY -18%

YoY

+2.5%

-1.8%+2.7%

Inflation11.3% in 4Q2036.1% in 2020

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7

3,7 4,4 2,0

-0,3

22,326,8

12,0

2,0

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 Oct - Nov

ROAA ROAE

INDUSTRY TRENDS IN NFM AND PROFITABILITYNFM, ROAE & ROAA decreasing from 2Q20 peak.

ROAA & ROAE [%]

Private BanksROAA:

Oct: -0,3Nov: 0,9

ROAEOct -1,6Nov: 5,5

ROAE and ROAA calculated with Comprehensive Income

186.586 211.275 168.433 44.136 53.572

17 16

119 10

26 24

17 13 15

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 Oct NovAdjusted Financial MarginAdjusted Financial Margin / Average AssetsAdjusted Financial Margin / Avg. Balance of Interest Earning Assets

+11,4% -20,3%

Private Banks Jul: 62.266Aug: 54.056Sep: 52.111

Adjusted Financial Margin includes Results from Securitiesrecorded in Other Comprehensive Income

Net Financial Margin

Source: Argentina Central Bank. Monthly Bank Report as of November 2020

15,0 16,916,5

22,6

24,8

20,9

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

0,92,6 1,3

6,90

18,70

9,70

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

SUPV Adj FinancialMargin / Avg. Assets

SUPV Adj FinancialMargin / Avg. Interest earningAssets

SUPV ROAE

SUPV ROAA

Page 9: Company Presentation · 2021. 2. 12. · INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and Coverage Coverage ratio continued to increase in October and November. LLP decreased 105% 104% 128% 136% 147%

INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and CoverageCoverage ratio continued to increase in October and November. LLP decreased

105% 104%

128%136%

147%158%

165%173%

190%

205%211%

86%

100%

127%

181%

ene.-20

feb.-20

mar.-20

abr.-20

may.-2

0

jun.-20

jul.-20

ago.-2

0

sep.-2

0

oct.-20

nov.-20

Private Banks SUPV

Coverage Ratio [%] Loan Loss Provision [AR$]

Oct + Nov: 10.637

20.784

34.484

20.040

5.219 5.418

1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 Oct Nov

Source: Argentina Central Bank. Monthly Bank Report as of November 2020

Private Banks Private Banks

8

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Contents SUPV Highlights

Page 11: Company Presentation · 2021. 2. 12. · INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and Coverage Coverage ratio continued to increase in October and November. LLP decreased 105% 104% 128% 136% 147%

3Q20 HIGHLIGHTS

10

Double digit ROAE, while increasing coverage and strengthening capital base

01

02

03

04

05

06

•Higher Badlar rate reduced spreads and negatively impacted NIM•Regulatory controls drive lower Fees

•Strong COST CONTROLS supports efficiency

•INCREASED CAPITAL BASE with Tier 1 Ratio of 14%, and MAINTAINED STRONG LIQUIDITY to navigate complex and changing environment

•Delivered PROFITABILITYdespite Covid-19 restrictions, recessionary macro and changing regulatory framework.

•FLEXIBILITY to balance risk and profitability resulted in lower loan and deposit growth

•Accelerating DIGITAL ADOPTION•Evolving our SERVICE MODEL•Expanding corporate business adding

NEW VALUE CHAINS

•ADDITIONAL PROVISIONS increasing coverage levels•Closely monitoring ASSET QUALITY

Page 12: Company Presentation · 2021. 2. 12. · INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and Coverage Coverage ratio continued to increase in October and November. LLP decreased 105% 104% 128% 136% 147%

11

Perspectives

Perspectives

Loans An anticipated mild rebound in economic activity is expected to drive loan growth above inflation

Deposits Increasing above inflation, fostered by FX market restrictions and the floor on interest rate paid to time deposits

NIM Short term NIM remains pressured by higher cost of funds due to floor on interest rates on time deposits and subsidized rates on loans

Operating Expenses

Salaries likely to grow with inflation, while incurring additional expenses related to acceleration of digital transformation. Impacted by i) higher rates in turnover tax, ii) CABA extension of turnover tax reach to Leliqs/Repos.

Capital & Liquidity Appropriate levels that support long-term sustainability

Asset Quality

Fee IncomeRegulations prohibit further repricing until February-March 2021. Some caps in place for 2021. Challenging economic scenario

A challenging macroeconomic scenario may result in a deterioration in NPLs in 1Q21-3Q21. Provisions could be revised upwards if conditions worsen

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ContentsQ&A

Page 14: Company Presentation · 2021. 2. 12. · INDUSTRY TRENDS IN LLPs and Coverage Coverage ratio continued to increase in October and November. LLP decreased 105% 104% 128% 136% 147%

Thank You!February 11, 2021