Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

30

description

Sharon Younger Younger Associates

Transcript of Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Page 1: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013
Page 2: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013
Page 3: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Why Do You Need Research

Knowledge = Power• Understand the Local/Regional Economy• Prepare to Work with Prospects• Identify Economic Targets & Opportunities• Basis for All Successful Strategic Plans• Basis for All Effective ED Marketing

Page 4: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

What You Need to Know

The Basics• IEDC Standard Data Set http://www.iedconline.org/web-pages/resources-publications/site-selection-data-standards/

• Demographics• Economic Base/ Existing Industry• Workforce Size, Cost & Capabilities• Education & Training

Page 5: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

What You Need To Know

Demographics

• Claritas

• ESRI

• US Census• City/County Quick Demographic Overview (Population, Race, Housing, Education Level, Home Values) http://quickfacts.census.gov/gfd/

• County Profiles• Tennessee Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations (TACIR) Most common demographic data, but also has some educational data, vital statistics & state rankings http://www.state.tn.us/tacir/county_profiles.html

• Population Projections• http://www.state.tn.us/tacir/population.html

Page 6: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

What You Need To Know

Business & Industrial BaseTarget Industry Analysis

• Private Sources• Harris/ Dunn & Bradstreet• InfoUSA

• US Department of Commerce• County Business Patterns Report• Local Employment Dynamics• Annual Survey of Manufacturers• Building Permits• Many Other Reports http://www.census.gov/econ/www/index.html

• Local Utility Provider

Page 7: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

What You Need To Know

Education

• Education Statistics- Tennessee Primary & Secondary Schools Department of Education http://www.tennessee.gov/education/reports_data.shtml

• Higher Education Data & Statistics U.S. Department of Education http://nces.ed.gov/collegenavigator/

• National Education Statistics (Secondary, Post Secondary & Libraries) U.S. Department of Education http://nces.ed.gov/

• Campus Visits & Interviews

Page 8: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

What You Need To Know

Workforce- The Number One Cost of Doing Business

• Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development http://www.tn.gov/labor-wfd/lmi.shtml

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/

• Custom Research

Page 9: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

An Excellent Source for Workforce Data

The Source: TN Department of Labor and Workforce Development http://www.state.tn.us/labor-wfd/lmi.htm

Data Available:

• Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (Distribution of Labor and Annual Average Wages)• Annual Labor Force Estimates Summary• Unemployment Rates• Current Labor Force Estimates• TN Employment Forecast• Wages of Selected Occupations for State and Sub-Regions of the State• Future Trends in Occupations and Industries- Hot Jobs

Page 10: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Quarterly Census of Employment Wages- Annual Average

Industry Avg. # of Reporting Units

Avg. Annual Employment Avg. Annual Wage

Total All Industries 2,324 54,040 $ 33,764

Total All Industries, Federal Government 25 522 $55,286

Total All Industries, State Government 8 953 $34,289

Total All Industries, Local Government 17 8,761 $34,675

Total All Industries, Private Ownership 2,274 43,804 $33,313

Goods Producing 376 13,249 $41,585

Natural Resources and Mining 17 92 $31,290

Crop Production 4 29 $25,574

Page 11: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Quarterly Census of Employment Wages- Annual Average

Industry Avg. # of Reporting Units

Avg. Annual Employment Avg. Annual Wage

Forestry and Logging 6 22 $22,393

Agriculture 3 16 $27,318

Construction 235 3,099 $37,025

Construction of Buildings 81 887 $38,450

Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction

17 519 $46,55

Specialty Trade Contractors 137 1,693 $33,359

Manufacturing 125 10,058 $43,083

Food Manufacturing 8 1,623 $47,163

Wood Product Manufacturing 10 593 $33,180

Paper Manufacturing 7 677 $40,366

Page 12: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

And Lots of Other Useful Data

The Source: Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Developmenthttp://www.state.tn.us/labor-wfd/lmi.htm

Data Available:• Census Demographic Profiles• Job Search Information• Consumer Price Index- Current• Consumer Price Index- Historical• Per Capita Personal Income Data

Page 13: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Tennessee Metropolitan Statistical Areas with 2013 Definition Updates

Chattanooga, TN-GA (Hamilton, Marion, Sequatchie, Catoosa GA, Dade GA, Walker GA)

Clarksville, TN-KY (Montgomery, Stewart, Christian KY, Trigg KY)

Cleveland, TN (Bradley, Polk)

Jackson, TN (Chester, Crockett, Madison)

Johnson City, TN (Carter, Unicoi, Washington)

Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol (Tri-Cities), TN-VA (Hawkins, Sullivan, Scott VA, Washington VA, Bristol City VA)

Knoxville, TN (Anderson, Blount, Campbell, Grainger, Knox, Loudon, Morgan, Roane, Union)

Memphis, TN-MS-AR (Fayette, Shelby, Tipton, Crittenden AR, Benton MS, DeSoto MS, Marshall MS, Tate MS, Tunica MS)

Morristown, TN (Grainger, Hamblen, Jefferson)

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN (Cannon, Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Hickman, Macon, Robertson, Rutherford, Smith, Sumner, Trousdale, Williamson, Wilson) RED indicates the county has been removed from the MSAGreen Indicates the county has been added to the MSA

Page 14: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Commute Patterns

Source http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/journey.html

Page 15: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

What You Need to Know for Retail and Consumer Driven Development• Average Daily Traffic Counts-TN

• Tennessee Dept. of Transportationhttp://www.tdot.state.tn.us/projectplanning/adt.asp

• Building Permits• U.S. Census Bureau (city or county must report)http://censtats.census.gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtml

• Retail Sales, Sales Tax Collections by County• Tennessee Department of Revenuehttp://www.tn.gov/revenue/statistics/index.shtml

Page 16: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Retail Sales EstimatedInleakage/Outleakage Report

Rank County2011 Total

Personal Income2011 Total Retail Sales

Sales to Income Ratio

In-Leakage or Out-Leakage*

1 Sevier, TN 2,932,819,000 2,013,717,344 0.687 $ 608,820,415

2 Rutherford, TN 8,714,005,000 5,979,560,363 0.686 $ 1,805,365,620

3 Hamblen, TN 1,894,032,000 1,263,615,633 0.667 $ 357,449,154

4 Putnam, TN 2,288,083,000 1,351,063,918 0.590 $ 278,589,627

5 Madison, TN 3,469,897,000 2,044,495,429 0.589 $ 418,980,278

6 Lewis, TN 295,590,000 170,900,927 0.578 $ 33,136,062

7 Knox, TN 16,994,073,000 8,661,782,921 0.510 $ 1,086,326,038

8 Davidson, TN 30,069,470,000 14,328,356,384 0.477 $ 1,321,505,514

9 Henry, TN 990,912,000 470,865,196 0.475 $ 42,804,144

10 Cumberland, TN 1,691,634,000 802,269,993 0.474 $ 72,187,507

*Based on State of TN Sales to Income Ratio

Page 17: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Retail Sales Potential ReportDemand Supply Opportunity

Retail Stores(Consumer

Expenditures) (Retail Sales) Gap/Surplus

Total Retail Sales 207,362,710 267,338,684 (59,975,974) Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 43,586,764 58,174,162 (14,587,398) Automotive Dealers 37,821,101 48,261,332 (10,440,231) Automotive Parts/Accsrs, Tire Stores 3,178,144 8,408,157 (5,230,013) Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 4,253,052 12,649,840 (8,396,788) Furniture Stores 2,454,059 11,267,556 (8,813,497) Home Furnishing Stores 1,798,994 1,382,284 416,710 Food and Beverage Stores 27,310,670 13,911,063 13,399,607 Grocery Stores 25,176,187 8,045,949 17,130,238 Supermarkets, Grocery Stores 23,989,581 6,914,163 17,075,418 Convenience Stores 1,186,606 1,131,786 54,820

Building Material, Garden Equip Stores 19,062,704 42,893,727 (23,831,023) Building Material and Supply Dealers 17,544,897 37,104,869 (19,559,972) Home Centers 6,872,039 13,869,003 (6,996,964)

General Merchandise Stores 25,992,414 28,460,934 (2,468,520) Dept. Stores (Excl Leased Depts) 12,213,021 632,341 11,580,680 Other General Merchandise Stores 13,779,393 27,828,592 (14,049,199)

Page 18: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Economic Impact Analysis

Why Conduct Economic Impact Analysis

• Understand Workforce Impact- Job Creation Potential

• Determine Appropriate Incentive Level

• Reassure Elected Officials

• Attract Funding

Page 19: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Economic Impact AnalysisAnnual Impact of Operations

Employment, Direct (full-time equivalent) 204

Wages & Benefits, Direct $8,210,125

Employment Multiplier 2.3441

Total Employment 478

Employment, Indirect 274

Angel County Annual Average Wage $41,317

Wages, Indirect $11,328,973

Total Wages $19,539,098

Sales Tax Revenue $ 220,254

Other Tax Revenue $64,094

Residential/Commercial Property Tax Revenue $243,158

Total Tax Revenue $527,506

Page 20: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Economic Impact and Cost/Benefit Analysis

One Time Expansion Impact

Total Capital Investment $14,527,900

Building- Real Property $12,420,300Economic Impact Multiplier 1.5936Economic Impact $19,792,990

Equipment Purchase/Set-Up $2,107,600Economic Impact Multiplier 1.7410Economic Impact $3,669,332

Total Economic Impact $23,462,322Sales Tax Revenue $100,713Other Tax Revenue $29,308Total Tax Revenue $103,021

Page 21: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Tax ScheduleAngel Co Tax Rate:

$2.59 Full Taxes % of Taxes Paid In Lieu

Payment in Lieu Taxes Abated

Real Property $12,420,300

Year 1 $128,674 0% - $128,674

Year 2 $128,674 0% - $128,674

Year 3 $128,674 0% - $128,674

Year 4 $128,674 0% - $128,674

Year 5 $128,674 0% - $128,674Year 6 $128,674 10% $12,867 $115,807

Year 7 $128,674 25% $32,169 $96,506

Year 8 $128,674 50% $64,337 $64,337

Year 9 $128,674 75% $96,506 $32,169

Year 10 $128,674 100% $128,674 $-

Total $1,286,743 $ 334,553

$952,190

Page 22: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Tax ScheduleGood Town

Tax Rate: $0.57 Full Taxes % of Taxes Paid In Lieu

Payment in Lieu Taxes Abated

Real Property $12,420,300

Year 1 $28,318 0% - $28,318

Year 2 $28,318 0% - $28,318

Year 3 $28,318 0% - $28,318

Year 4 $28,318 0% - $28,318

Year 5 $28,318 0% - $28,318

Year 6 $28,318 10% $2,832 $25,486

Year 7 $28,318 25% $7,080 $21,239

Year 8 $28,318 50% $14,159 $14,159

Year 9 $28,318 75% $21,239 $7,080

Year 10 $28,318 100% $28,318 $-

Total $283,183 $73,928 $209,555

Page 23: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Tax ScheduleGood Town Tax

Rate: $0.57 Full Taxes Depreciation% of Taxes Paid

Payment in Lieu Taxes Abated

Mfg Equip/ Personal Property

$2,107,800

Year 1 $3,172 .88 0% - $3,172

Year 2 $2,703 .75 0% - $2,703

Year 3 $2,271 .63 0% - $2,271

Year 4 $1,802 .50 0% - $1,802

Year 5 $1,370 .38 0% - $1,370

Year 6 $901 .25 10% $90 $811

Year 7 $721 .20 25% $180 $541

Year 8 $721 .20 50% $360 $360

Year 9 $721 .20 75% $541 $180

Year 10 $721 .20 100% $721 $-

Total $15,101 $1,892 $13,209

Page 24: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Tax ScheduleAngel Co.

Tax Rate: $2.59 Full Taxes Depreciation % of Taxes Paid

Payment in Lieu Taxes Abated

Mfg Equip/ Personal Property

$2,107,600

Year 1 $14,411 .88 0% - $14,411

Year 2 $12,282 .75 0% - $12,282

Year 3 $10,317 .63 0% - $10,317

Year 4 $8,188 .50 0% - $8,188

Year 5 $6,223 .38 0% - $6,223

Year 6 $4,094 .25 10% $409 $3,685

Year 7 $3,275 .20 25% $819 $2,456

Year 8 $3,275 .20 50% $1,638 $1,638

Year 9 $3.375 .20 75% $2,456 $819

Year 10 $3,275 .20 100% $3,275 $-

Total $68,616 $8,597 $60,018

Page 25: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Economic Impact and Benefit/Cost Analysis

Payback Summary

Length of PILOT 10 years

Total Taxes Forgone $1,234,972

Total Hard Costs $0

Tax Revenues From Construction & Equipment $130,021

Tax Revenues From Operations During PILOT Period $5,275,063

Payments Received in Lieu of Tax $418,670

Total Tax Revenues Received During PILOT Period $5,823,754

Benefit/Cost Ratio 4.72

Page 26: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Consumer Spending

Expenditure Category % of Total ExpendituresWages Earned by New Jobs Created (Direct & Indirect)

Income before Taxes $19,539,098

Annual Taxes & Savings 22% $4,295596

Annual Expenditures $15,243,502

Food/Groceries 7.6% $1,159,864

Restaurants 5.4% $820,668

Housing/Shelter 18.6% $2,840,185

Utilities 8.2% $1,246,496

Housekeeping Supplies/Services 3.6% $545,093

Household Furnishings/Equipment 3.2% $494,800

Apparel 3.9% $595,093

Page 27: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Consumer Spending

Expenditure Category % of Total Expenditures

Wages Earned by New Jobs Created

Transportation 16.2% $2,465,669

Healthcare 6.6% $1,009,592

Entertainment 5.4% $822,001

Personal Care Products/Services 1.3% $197,587

Reading 0.2% $28,322

Education 1.8% $273,223

Tobacco & Alcohol 1.7% $253,897

Charity 3.7 % $563,772

Personal Insurance 11 % $1,670,991

Miscellaneous 1.7% $255,897

Total 100% $15,243,502

Page 28: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Impact of Target IndustriesAnnual Impact of Operations

Distribution Center Headquarters Hospitality

Manufacturing (General) BioScience/Medical

Commercial/Retail

Employment, Direct

100 100 100 100 100 100

Industry Specific Annual Avg. Wage1 $ 42,016 $33,020 $12,948 $42,588 $31,564 $27,352

Benefit Allowance (25%) 10,504 8,255 3,237 10,647 7,891 6,838

Wages & Benefits, Direct $ 5,252,000 $4,127,500 1,618,500 $5,323,500 $3,945,500 $3,945,500

Employment Multiplier 2 1.4078 1.5349 1.2795 2.2318 1.4796 1.2251

Total Employment 140 153 127 223 147 122

Employment, Indirect 40 53 27 123 47 22

Annual Average Wage 3 $30,992 $30,992 $30,992 $30,992 $30,992 $30,992

Benefit Allowance (25%) $ 7,748 $7,748 $7,748 $7,748 $ 7,748 $7,748

Wages, Indirect $1,549,600 $2,053,220 1,045,980 $4,765,020 $1,820,780 $852,280

Total Wages $6,801,600 $6,180,720 2,664,480 10,088,520 $5,766,280 $4,797,780

Page 29: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Consumer SpendingConsumer Expenditures - Annual

Distribution Center Headquarters Hospitality

Manufacturing (General)

BioScience/ Medical

Commercial/ Retail

Transportation (vehicle, gas, maintenance) 20.3%

$1,125,560 $1,022,814 $440,930 $1,669,494 $954,230 $793,959

Healthcare 6.4% $353,870 $321,567 $138,626 $524,880 $300,005 $249,616

Entertainment 4.8% $267,618 $243,188 $104,837 $396,946 $226,882 $188,775

Personal Care Products/Services 1.3% $72,960 $66,300 $28,581 $108,218 $61,854 $51,465

Reading 0.2% $ 13,735 $12,482 $5,381 $20,373 $11,645 $9,689

Education 1.5% $85,809 $77,976 $33,615 $127,277 $72,747 $60,529

Tobacco & Alcohol 1.6% $91,569 $83,210 $35,872 $135,820 $77,631 $64,592

Charity 3.6% $198,498 $180,378 $77,760 $294,423 $168,283 $140,018

Personal Insurance 9.8% $544,983 $495,235 $213,493 $808,350 $462,027 $384,426

Miscellaneous 1.5% $82,117 $74,621 $32,169 $121,800 $69,617 $57,924

Total 100.0%

$5,556,907 $5,049,648 $2,176,880 $8,242,321

$4,711,051

$3,919,786

Page 30: Community Research and Analysis, TN Basic Economic Development Course 2013

Headquarters97 Directors Row

Jackson, TN 38305O: 731.668.7367F: 731.668.00421-800-748-2087Memphis Office

2157 Madison Ave

Memphis, TN 38104O: 901-272-5005F: 901-272-5002

www.younger-associates.com