Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change...

23
11 Introduction Scientists are clear that climate change is happening, and that it is due to emissions of greenhouse gases produced largely by industrialised countries (IPCC, 2007). Those likely to be worst affected are the world’s poorest countries, especially poor and marginalised communities within these countries. Ironically it is these poor countries and people who have contributed least to the problem of climate change, because of their very low greenhouse gas emissions, but who will suffer most from its consequences. Even if emissions are severely curbed, climate change will still occur. The industrialised countries have accepted they have a responsibility to help poor and vulnerable countries to adapt (UNFCCC). However, until recently, most adaptation efforts have been top-down, and little attention has been paid to communities’ experiences of climate change and their efforts to cope with their changing environments. This special issue of Participatory Learning and Action focuses on recent approaches to adaptation to climate change which are community-based and participatory, building on the priorities, knowledge, and capacities of local people. Community-based adaptation draws on participatory approaches and methods developed in both disaster risk reduction (DRR) and community development work, as well as sectoral-specific approaches such as farmer participatory research (Berger et al., this issue) and Farmer Field Schools (Sherwood and Bentley, this issue). Inno- vative participatory methods are also emerging to help communities analyse the causes and effects of climate change, to integrate scientific and community knowl- edge of climate change, and to plan adap- tation measures. In this overview paper to the issue, we describe how community-based approaches to climate change have emerged, and the similarities and differ- ences between CBA and other participatory development and disaster risk reduction approaches. Whilst CBA is a relatively new field, some lessons and challenges are by HANNAH REID, MOZAHARUL ALAM, RACHEL BERGER, TERRY CANNON, SALEEMUL HUQ, and ANGELA MILLIGAN Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1

Transcript of Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change...

Page 1: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

11

IntroductionScientists are clear that climate change ishappening, and that it is due to emissionsof greenhouse gases produced largely byindustrialised countries (IPCC, 2007).Those likely to be worst affected are theworld’s poorest countries, especially poorand marginalised communities withinthese countries. Ironically it is these poorcountries and people who have contributedleast to the problem of climate change,because of their very low greenhouse gasemissions, but who will suffer most from itsconsequences. Even if emissions areseverely curbed, climate change will stilloccur. The industrialised countries haveaccepted they have a responsibility to helppoor and vulnerable countries to adapt(UNFCCC). However, until recently, mostadaptation efforts have been top-down,and little attention has been paid tocommunities’ experiences of climatechange and their efforts to cope with theirchanging environments.

This special issue of ParticipatoryLearning and Action focuses on recent

approaches to adaptation to climatechange which are community-based andparticipatory, building on the priorities,knowledge, and capacities of local people.Community-based adaptation draws onparticipatory approaches and methodsdeveloped in both disaster risk reduction(DRR) and community development work,as well as sectoral-specific approaches suchas farmer participatory research (Berger etal., this issue) and Farmer Field Schools(Sherwood and Bentley, this issue). Inno-vative participatory methods are alsoemerging to help communities analyse thecauses and effects of climate change, tointegrate scientific and community knowl-edge of climate change, and to plan adap-tation measures.

In this overview paper to the issue, wedescribe how community-basedapproaches to climate change haveemerged, and the similarities and differ-ences between CBA and other participatorydevelopment and disaster risk reductionapproaches. Whilst CBA is a relatively newfield, some lessons and challenges are

by HANNAH REID, MOZAHARUL ALAM, RACHEL BERGER, TERRY CANNON, SALEEMUL HUQ, and ANGELA MILLIGAN

Community-basedadaptation to climatechange: an overview 1

Page 2: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan12

beginning to emerge, and we analyse these,drawing on the experiences contained inthe collection of articles for this issue. Manyof the articles are concerned with naturalresources, reflecting the preponderance ofsubmissions we received in this area.However, climate change will affect manyother aspects of communities’ lives, and wewould urge practitioners working in othersectors, such as human health and urbanareas, to share their experiences of commu-nity-based adaptation.

Climate change and its impactsClimate change refers to short-, medium-,and long-term changes in weather patternsand temperature that are predicted tohappen, or are already happening as a resultof anthropogenic emissions of greenhousegases such as carbon dioxide. These changesinclude a higher frequency of extremeweather events such as drought and floods,as well as greater unpredictability and vari-ability in the seasons and in rainfall. Over-lying this increased variability are expectedlonger-term changes, such as temperatureand sea-level rises, and lower (or in somecases higher) rainfall. Annex 1 shows inmore detail how the climate is predicted tochange over the medium- and long-term(Christian Aid, 2009, based on the IPCC4th assessment report, 2007).

Why are poor people most vulnerable toclimate change?Poor countries and communities are morevulnerable to climate change because theytend to be located in geographically vulner-able areas, such as flood-prone Mozam-bique, drought-prone Sudan, orcyclone-prone Bangladesh, and in morevulnerable locations. For example, theslums and informal settlements surround-ing many developing country cities areusually sited on land prone to landslips orto flooding and river bank erosion. Wealthypeople, commerce, and industry can affordto situate themselves on safer land.

Many poor communities are heavily

dependent on natural resources for theirlivelihoods. Smallholder farmers have muchexperience of adapting to their complex,diverse, and risk-prone environments.However, farming is now becoming evenmore difficult and risky because of greaterunpredictability in the timing of rainyseasons and the pattern of rain withinseasons, making it more difficult to decidewhen to cultivate, sow, and harvest, andneeding more resources to seize the righttime for planting, and to maintain cropsand animals through dry spells. Heat stress,lack of water at crucial times, and pests anddiseases are serious problems that climatechange appears to be exacerbating. Theseall interact with ongoing pressures on land,soils, and water resources that would existregardless of climate change (Jennings andMcGrath, 2009).

Vulnerability to climate change is notjust a function of geography, or depend-ence on natural resources; it also hassocial, economic, and political dimensionswhich influence how climate changeaffects different groups (Action Aid,2005). Poor people rarely have insuranceto cover loss of property due to storms orcyclones. They cannot pay for the health-care required when climate change-induced outbreaks of malaria and otherdiseases occur. They have few alterativelivelihood options when their only cowdrowns in a flood or drought kills theirmaize crop for the year – and they do nothave the political clout to ask why theircountry’s early warning system did notwarn them of likely flooding. Climatechange will also have psychological andcultural effects, for example beliefs andtraditions associated with the seasonsbeing undermined by climate change(Jenning and McCrath, 2009).

Poor communities already struggle tocope with the existing challenges of povertyand climate shocks, but climate changecould push many beyond their ability tocope or even survive. It is vital that thesecommunities are helped to adapt.

Page 3: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

13Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

Adapting to climate changeInternational climate change negotiations,multilateral and bilateral agencies, donors,and international governance and financialinstitutions such as the World Bank arepaying increasing attention to adaptationand how best to help people to adapt. Moreand more funding is available for adapta-tion.1 However, until recently, most effortsto help countries adapt focused on nationalplanning and top-down approaches basedon climate change modelling. Remarkablylittle attention has been paid to the ways inwhich poor people have been coping withclimate variability and extremes fordecades.

What is community-based adaptation? Community-based adaptation to climatechange is a community-led process, basedon communities’ priorities, needs, knowl-edge, and capacities, which shouldempower people to plan for and cope withthe impacts of climate change. As Tanneret al. and others in this issue point out,climate change is only one of a range ofnatural, social, and economic problemsthat may face poor people (such as unem-ployment, the prices of food and otheressentials, commodity prices, drugs,gambling, community conflict, and health).So it is unlikely that interventions focusingonly on climate-related risks will reflectcommunity priorities.

CBA needs to start with communities’expressed needs and perceptions, and tohave poverty reduction and livelihoodbenefits, as well as reducing vulnerabilityto climate change and disasters. In prac-tice, CBA projects look very like ‘develop-ment as usual ’ and it is difficult todistinguish the additional ‘adaptationcomponents’. For example, in a droughtyear, we cannot divide water storage meas-

ures undertaken by local communities intothose initiated as a response to ‘normal’climate variability, and those initiated as aresponse to climate change. However, thedifference is that CBA work attempts tofactor in the potential impact of climatechange on livelihoods and vulnerability todisasters by using local and scientificknowledge of climate change and its likelyeffects.

CBA may start by identifying commu-nities in poor countries that are mostvulnerable to climate change, or thesecommunities may themselves ask for assis-tance (Kelman et al., this issue). It may alsofollow on from work with communities tocope with a disaster, such as severe flood-ing. International development NGOs anddonors funding CBA usually work throughlocal partners, such as local NGOs orcommunity groups which already have thetrust of local communities.

Incorporating climate change informationCBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts intoplanning processes. This includes: • scientific information (e.g. long-termpredictions from climate change models,seasonal forecasts, information on trendsbased on data collected at nearby weatherstations); as well as • local knowledge about trends andchanges experienced by communities at alocal level and strategies these communi-ties have used in the past to cope withsimilar shocks or gradual climatic changes.

Both these sources contribute to anunderstanding of risk. Climate changescience cannot say for certain, for example,how much rainfall a particular area willreceive over any given time – but it can givesome guidance on the probability that rain-fall will increase or decrease and to what

1 For example, funds have been established to support adaptation activities under theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its KyotoProtocol such as the Adaptation Fund, and the World Bank’s Pilot Program for ClimateResilience (PPCR). While such international funds are not always aimed specifically atcommunity-based adaptation (CBA), some of them, such as the Adaptation Fund, aretrying to target the most vulnerable communities.

Page 4: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan14

Moveable cooking stove designed to cope with floods, 2007, near Khulna, Bangladesh.

Phot

o: T

erry

Can

non

Page 5: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

15Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

extent. CBA builds in this notion of riskand uncertainty into activities, with the aimof building communities’ resilience to bothcurrent climate variability and futureclimate change.

Drawing on participatory disaster riskreduction approachesThe lessons from disaster risk reduction(DRR) work are of tremendous value forclimate change adaptation, because climatechange is likely to change the magnitude,frequency, and timing of extreme eventssuch as flooding, landslides, and storms, aswell as generate new disaster events.

Disaster risk reduction is likely to be theentry point for communities suffering fromsevere shocks as a result of short-termclimate variability (Christian Aid, 2009).Many of the papers in this issue use aparticipatory DRR framework (e.g. Tanneret al., Warrick, and Gaillard and Maceda).Although different approaches and frame-works for participatory DRR exist, allinvolve working with local people to under-stand the types of hazards they face (e.g.earthquakes, droughts, floods, pests anddiseases, human diseases), the factorswhich make them vulnerable to thesehazards, and their causes. These togethergive an indication of how ‘at risk’ commu-nities are and which groups are mostvulnerable. They also help communitiesconsider what capacities they have forreducing vulnerability, and aim toempower communities to take actionthemselves to reduce the risks they face.

Many organisations working with localcommunities to reduce poverty and disas-ter risks are now trying to incorporate theeffects of climate change into their workwith communities. Kelman and Mercer(this issue), for example, describe a disas-ter risk reduction framework developedwith communities to facilitate DRR plan-

ning in small island developing states(SIDS), such as Papua New Guinea. Theythen show how the framework can beadapted to take into account the likelyeffects of climate change by drawing onexternal scientific information such asdownscaled climate projections and satel-lite images, as well as local knowledge ofhazards and vulnerabilities. Taking intoaccount these longer-term impacts is oneof the key differences between DRR andclimate change adaptation.

Livelihoods, DRR, and climate changeIn practice, all disaster risk reduction anddevelopment work should take into accountclimate change impacts if developmentgains are to be sustained in the future.Whilst development agencies may differen-tiate between DRR, climate change adap-tation, and poverty alleviation, at thehousehold level the issues converge into onecomplex interrelated problem which boilsdown to the same thing – the security andwellbeing of people’s lives, livelihoods, andassets (Oxley, 2009).2 There is increasingrecognition that, for many communitiesfacing frequent hazards, poverty, disasters,and climate change adaptation are closelylinked and cannot be viewed in isolationfrom one another.3

This points towards the need to findpractical ways of integrating DRR, liveli-hoods, and climate change adaptation.Christian Aid, for example, has developeda climate risk cycle management approachto development planning which builds onthe expertise and experience of existingDRR and livelihoods programmes, usingexisting tools wherever possible. In themodel, predictable risks are anticipated,long- and short-term risk reduction activ-ities are integrated into livelihood develop-ment, and the time spent in emergency orrehabilitation is minimised (Figure 1).

2 ESRC-funded seminar, Integrating Approaches: Sustainable Livelihoods, Disaster RiskReduction and Climate Change Adaptation, December 2009, organised by PracticalAction (www.practicalaction.org.uk). See: http://community.eldis.org/.59cc7287/3 Ibid.

Page 6: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan16

These integrated frameworks are stilllargely untested and there are likely to bechallenges in handling the array of factorsto be considered, as well as in encouragingthe different support institutions needed totackle vulnerability to work together.

Participatory methods for CBAMany of the participatory tools used in CBA(see Table 1 for some examples) will befamiliar to DRR and development practi-tioners, but other innovative approaches arebeing developed for communities, develop-ment workers, and scientists to co-learnabout climate change and adaptation, aswell as for working with particular groupssuch as children (Tanner et al., this issue).

Co-learning about climate change Whilst local people are extremely aware ofchanges in their environment, they oftenhave little knowledge of the global causesand effects of climate change. The papersin this issue describe a wide variety ofparticipatory tools to help communitiesunderstand climate change and theimpacts it may have. Many use co-learningapproaches, drawing on both local andexternal scientific knowledge. Communi-cation about climate change should be inthe first language of the communityapproached and in terms it can under-stand.

In Ghana, for example, communitiesdeveloped mental models showing drivers

Figure 1: Climate risk cycle management

Source: Christian Aid (2009a)

Page 7: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

17Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

and effects of climate change (Tschakertand Sagoe, this issue). During this process,they reinforced and expanded their ownknowledge of climate change, with theinput of external agents. In Indonesia,Climate Field Schools followed a partici-patory ‘learning by doing’ approach to helpfarmers increase their knowledge ofclimate change and observe climaticparameters themselves, such as rainfall, tohelp guide farming activities (Christian

Aid, this issue). Sherwood and Bentley (thisissue) describe a similar process in theAndes.

Children can be very effective commu-nicators of climate change causes andeffects. They often have a better under-standing of the science of climate changeprocesses than adults in the community,through school lessons, and can draw outthe implications for local livelihoods. Plush(this issue) shows how videos, produced in

4 Storian means to ‘chat, yarn, swap stories’ and is an umbrella term indicating semi-structured interview, informal interview, and opportunistic discussion as part ofobservation. See Warrick, this issue.

Table 1: Some examples of participatory tools used in CBA

PARTICIPATORYTOOL/APPROACH

Mental models

Seasonal calendars

Timelines

Community mapping andmodelling

Transect walks

Ranking

Dream maps and drawings

Theatre, poems, songs

Participatory video

Stakeholder analysis

Key informant discussions(e.g. storian)4

USES

• Drivers and effects of climate change

• Seasonality and links with livelihoods• Can be combined with timelines to show perceived changes in seasonality

over time

• Hazards and events• Trends in climate, e.g. temperature and rainfall

• Resources• Types and causes of risks and threats • Extent of vulnerable areas• Vulnerable households and individuals• Planning DRR/CC adaptation measures

• Vulnerability/risks• Land use• Resources

• Vulnerabilities and hazards• Coping and DRR strategies, e.g. water management options, crop varieties

• Vision of community or farm and how to achieve

• Awareness raising of risks and risk reduction measures• Advocacy

• Awareness raising• Farmer to farmer communication• Advocacy

• Institutions, relationships, power

• In-depth discussion of vulnerability, livelihood sources

Page 8: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan18

a participatory way by children, can be apowerful means of raising awareness ofclimate change and its impacts, especiallywhere literacy rates in the community arelow. In this case, the children were firsttaught about climate change using locallyavailable materials (although Plush notesthat there is a severe lack of material thatis not too technical, or related to the urbanmitigation context). They then used thisknowledge to develop questions and carryout filmed interviews with other commu-nity members, to give a clear picture of theimpacts of climate change at the local level.

Although it is important for communi-ties to understand the drivers andprocesses of climate change, Warrick (thisissue) warns of the dangers of disempow-ering communities, giving them a sensethat they cannot take action to deal withclimate change, even though they haveoften been dealing with highly variableclimates for many years. To avoid this, shesuggests discussing climate change in thecontext of how people have alreadyresponded to climate stress, how this haschanged over time, and on communities’own capacities to adapt.

Local knowledge about climate change Several papers in this issue look at ways inwhich familiar participatory tools can beadapted to document local knowledgeabout climate changes. For example, raincalendars were used in Malawi to analysechanges in rainfall over the past five years(Awuor and Hammill, this issue) whilstseasonal analysis charts showed changes inthe seasons in West Bengal, India over asimilar timescale (Christian Aid, this issue).Climate timelines in Sudan were used torecord extreme weather events andtemperature trends over the past 30 years(Christian Aid, this issue).

In the absence of historical localweather data, the memories of oldercommunity members are often the onlysource of information on climate trends(Berger et al., this issue). Where scientific

data are unlikely to be available, one wayforward may be to strengthen local people’sability to collect their own data (Sherwoodand Bentley, this issue).

Using scientific climate change dataThe science of climate change and predic-tions regarding future changes have a keyrole to play in adapting to climate change.Finding ways of making scientific dataaccessible to communities is crucial if theyare to adapt and remain in control of theCBA process. There are potentially manydifferent kinds of information that wouldbe useful for community planning, such asremote sensing observations, satellitepictures, downscaled climate scenarios,and seasonal and long-range weather fore-casts. Where these are available, commu-nities need to learn how to interpret them.Christian Aid (this issue), for example,describe how participatory climate forecastworkshops were held in Zimbabwe, inwhich forecasts for the coming season,expressed in terms of probabilities ratherthan firm predictions. were explained tofarmers, and then downscaled usingfarmers’ own historical rainfall data.

Integrating local and scientific knowledgeMany of the papers in this issue considerhow to integrate scientific and local knowl-edge so as to build on the strengths of each.Although this can present challenges (seelater), several papers suggest ways of bridg-ing the gap between local communities andscientists (e.g. Gaillard and Maceda).

Identifying and planning adaptationactivitiesParticipatory ways of documenting, priori-tising, and sharing risk reduction andadaptation approaches are important ifCBA is to fit with community priorities,and build on existing practices or thoseused in the past, for example traditionalrice varieties which have better salinitytolerance than more recent varieties(Berger et al., this issue). Commonly

Page 9: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

19Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

mentioned on-farm adaptation optionsinclude diversification of the crops grown,changes in farming practices, better watermanagement, and food storage. In extremecases, for example, where droughts arelikely to be of such magnitude that cropscan no longer survive, then alternativelivelihood strategies, or even migrationmay need to be explored.

There is much scope for approacheswhich encourage the sharing of adaptationpractices. Sherwood and Bentley (thisissue), for example, describe an approachto climate change adaptation in the Andes,in which farmers learn through visits toother farms and through experimentation.As farmers learn and take action at thefarm level, the focus shifts to collectiveactions, such as sharing responsibility forcollecting weather data, and implementingsoil and water conservation measures.

Baumhardt (this issue) describes how

farmers made videos of the adaptationactivities they found most useful, whichwere then screened in nearby villages withwhich they did not have contact. Whilst thevideos were an important communicationtool for raising awareness of adaptationoptions, there are likely to be differences inabilities to adopt adaptation measures, andadditional support will often be needed iflocal people are to make these changes.

Molina et al. (this issue) describe howchildren in the Philippines developedtheatres, songs, and dances to communi-cate the potentially destructive impacts ofhazards such as flooding and river bankerosion, and were effective advocates forrisk reduction activities, such as tree plant-ing.

Gaillard and Maceda (this issue)describe how communities in a flood-pronepart of the Philippines created extraordi-narily detailed, scaled three-dimensional

Children take a class on the environment, 2007, near Khulna, Bangladesh.

Phot

o: T

erry

Can

non

Page 10: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan20

Mphunga villagers filmmaking training. Mphunga village, Salima district, Malawi – July 21st 2008. SeeBaumhardt et al., this issue.

Phot

o: F

erna

nda

Baum

hard

tPh

oto:

Gra

ce M

olin

a

Children mixing cement for school retaining wall, Potrerillos, El Salvador. See Molina et al., this issue.

Page 11: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

21Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

models of their area, made from localmaterials such as cartons and paper, whichthey used for disaster risk reduction plan-ning. They used the models to identifyimportant areas for livelihoods, e.g. fishingand hunting grounds, areas prone to differ-ent types of flooding (river, tidal), differenthouseholds, the material of their house(which affects how robust the houses are),household inhabitants, and the mostvulnerable people in the community, e.g.

young children, elderly people, pregnantwomen, and those with disabilities. Theythen identified local resources to deal withhazards, e.g. boats, vehicles, and thenplanned disaster risk reduction activities,e.g. meeting points, evacuation routes, andshelters. The information from thesemodels can also be input into GIS systemsfor use by local government or scientists(subject to the communities’ permission),and can easily be updated.

Women queue for drinking water from a filtered tank in area where salinisation is increasing due to sea-level rise.

Phot

o: T

erry

Can

non

Page 12: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan22

Lessons and challenges in community-based adaptationAlthough CBA is a very recent develop-ment, a number of lessons and challengesare already emerging, around the avail-ability and credibility of climate changeinformation and data, the quality of partic-ipatory processes in CBA, scaling up, andmonitoring and evaluation.

Issues around knowledge Good information on which to base climatechange adaptation is vital, but it is notalways available, accessible, or credible.

Scientific data Christian Aid (this issue) highlight the diffi-culties communities often experience inaccessing climate change data that they canuse in planning. Whilst climate models canhelp identify which parts of the world aremore likely to be physically vulnerable (seeAnnex 1), these predictions are often at ageographic resolution or timescale whichare of little use to local communities. Betterclimate change models, which can makepredictions that are more relevant forcommunities, are urgently needed.

There are also problems with weatherforecasts. Meteorological stations are oftenwoefully under-resourced and under-staffed, data are not computerised, anddata which would be useful for farmers arenot collected. Jennings and McGrath(2009), for example, point out that the vastmajority of analyses of meteorologicalrecords and climate model data focus onmean annual temperature and precipita-tion change rather than the timing of rainsand intra-seasonal rainfall patterns, whichare of much more interest to farmers.

Where data are available, communitiesare often not able to access them, forexample, because they lack Internet access,or the data are not passed from meteoro-logical departments to other governmentdepartments which can make use of them,such as agriculture. Finally, communitiesoften have little confidence in the data.

Access to reliable, appropriate forecasts isessential in meeting the challenge ofgreater unpredictability and increasedhazard events, and meteorological depart-ments need to be strengthened to meet thisneed. Ideally, scientific data should be veri-fied against local data, so that the scientificinformation has credibility with users(Christian Aid, this issue).

Local knowledgeWhilst communities often have little confi-dence in the reliability of information fromscientists, scientists are often equally reluc-tant to trust local knowledge, which theyregard as subjective and lacking in rigour(Gaillard and Maceda, this issue).However, in the absence of weather recordsand climate change data, CBA may belargely dependent on local knowledge ofpast climate trends for forecasting futuretrends.

Gill (1991) compared rainfall patternsrecorded by Nepali farmers using rainfallcalendars with the ‘real’ data recorded atthe nearby weather station, and found aremarkably good fit when comparingmodal rainfall. A more recent study wasable to match farmer perceptions of chang-ing timing and character of seasons againstmeteorological records and get a fit goodenough to show that farmer analysis needsto be taken seriously (McGrath, pers.comm.). However, several authors (e.g.Warrick) note that, when analysing longer-term trends with communities, morerecent events tend to overshadow moredistant ones, and this needs to be takeninto account when trying to extrapolatefrom past trends.

Many communities use traditionalsystems to forecast the coming season.Sherwood and Bentley (this issue) describehow farmers use wind patterns, cloudformations, the position of rainbows, andanimal behaviour to predict the comingseason. Berger et al. (this issue) describes atraditional weather forecasting systemcalled Litha, based on lunar cycles, and

Page 13: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

23Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

used by communities in southern coastalin Sri Lanka to predict rainfall patterns,and the best time to plant crops. However,there are fears that these traditionalsystems will become less effective asclimate change impacts increase. Berger etal. observe that in recent years, the Lithasystem has been falling out of use, althoughwhether this is because it is less effective orbecause scientific weather forecasts aremore reliable is unclear, and this wouldmerit further investigation.

Issues around participation CBA activities demonstrate a variety oftypes and degrees of participation (seeTable 1 for one typology). Participatorytools are sometimes used as a way ofcollecting local information about vulnera-bility and climate change to be used andanalysed by outsiders (e.g. the casedescribed by Wong, this issue). Often thepriorities and interests of outsiders over-ride those of communities, and there is stilla lot of ‘doing to’ communities, rather thancommunities taking charge. Experiencefrom many different fields, including thoserelevant to climate change adaptation, suchas natural resource management and soiland water conservation, shows that if adap-tation is to be effective and sustainable, itmust draw on the knowledge and prioritiesof local people, build on their capacities,and empower them to make changes them-selves. In this overview, we have arguedthat communities, scientists, and develop-ment workers need to learn, analyse, andplan action in partnership, but thatcommunities need to be in the driving seat.

This has wide-reaching implications forprofessional behaviour, attitudes, andmindsets, and for institutional cultures andstructures. Sherwood and Bentley (thisissue), for example, point out that people-centred, community-based issues are inconflict with dominant professional behav-iour and with dominant institutionaldesigns. Outsiders are facilitators and co-learners, not ‘teachers’ or ‘experts’. Partici-

patory processes need time to develop andthey need flexible funding. They do not fitwith the pre-determined calendars,budgets, and outputs demanded by govern-ment and other organisations.

The way in which adaptation activitiesare funded may be of help here. Poornations argue that, as wealthy nations havecaused the problems of climate change, anyinternational funding streams for adapta-tion activities should be used as recipientcountries and communities see fit, and thatsuch funding should be more stable andlong-term than development funding,which is subject to the conditions andpriorities of donors. This provides anopportunity for flexible, long-term fundingof participatory community-based adapta-tion processes.

In the rush to go to scale to respond toclimate change adaptation and to spendnewly available funds, there is a dangerthat, as with PRA in the 1990s, participa-tory CBA approaches will be abused andmisused. At the end of this issue, in‘Reflections on practical ethics for partici-patory community-based adaptation,’ wehave reproduced a statement by a group ofpractitioners called ‘Sharing our concerns’(Absalom et al.), which was published inPLA (then PLA Notes) in 1994. This state-ment is essentially an ethical code forparticipatory practitioners, and with a fewamendments, it has stood the test of time.We have also included here an extractfrom an article in a more recent issue, PLA54 (Rambaldi et al., 2006) on practicalethics for participatory development prac-titioners.

Honest critical reflection – of the sortexemplified by Warrick (this issue) – isessential if CBA practitioners are to learnfrom each others’ experiences. For example,what happens when, as Warrick cautions,climate change is not seen as a priority incommunities, where a highly variableclimate is regarded as ‘normal’, or whereclimate change impacts are not yet evident,even though scientists are confident that

Page 14: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan24

there will be serious impacts? Whathappens when an external organisation’sfocus and funding does not match the prior-ities raised by communities? Without theflexibility to address communities’ realconcerns, it is difficult for the process ofadaptation to be community-driven.

Difficulties with the concept of ‘community’Whilst CBA focuses on ‘the community’, itis very important to be aware of differencesin priorities, needs, vulnerability, andcapacities within communities. Tanner etal., for example, show that there aremarked differences in perceptions of the

Table 2: A typology of participation5

Table 2: Types of participation

Type of participation

Passive participation

Participation ininformation giving

Participation byconsultation

Participation formaterial incentives

Functionalparticipation

Interactiveparticipation

Self-mobilisation

Characteristics

People participate by being told what is going to happen or has alreadyhappened. It is a unilateral announcement by an administration or projectmanagement without listening to people’s responses. The information beingshared belongs only to external professionals.

People participate by answering questions posed by extractive researchers usingquestionnaire surveys or similar approaches. People do not have the opportunityto influence proceedings as the findings of the research are neither shared norchecked for accuracy.

People participate by being consulted, and external people listen to views. Theseexternal professionals define both problems and solutions, and may modify thesein the light of people’s responses. Such a consultative process does not concedeany share in decision-making, and professionals are under no obligation to takeon board people’s views.

People participate by providing resources, for example labour, in return for food,cash, or other material incentives. Much on-farm research falls into this categoryas farmers provide the fields but are not involved in the experimentation or theprocess of learning. It is very common to see this called participation, yet peoplehave no stake in prolonging activities when the incentives end.

People participate by forming groups to meet predetermined objectives related tothe project, which can involve the development or promotion of externallyinitiated social organisation. Such involvement does not tend to be at early stagesof project cycles or planning, but rather after major decisions have been made.These institutions tend to be dependent on external initiators and facilitators, butmay become self-dependent.

People participate in joint analysis, which leads to action plans and the formationof new local institutions or the strengthening of existing ones. It tends to involveinterdisciplinary methodologies that seek multiple perspectives and make use ofsystematic and structured learning processes. These groups take control over localdecisions and so people have a stake in maintaining structures or practices.

People participate by taking initiatives independent of external institutions tochange systems. They develop contacts with external institutions for resources andtechnical advice they need, but retain control over how resources are used. Suchself-initiated mobilisation and collective action may or may not challenge existinginequitable distributions of wealth and power.

5 Table sourced from Pretty et al. (1995), who adapted it from Adnan et al. (1992).

Page 15: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

25Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

importance of different hazards by age andgender in the Philippines. Men, as thefarmers in these communities, highlightedagricultural hazards such as pests anddrought, whilst women were concernedwith social hazards (gambling, drugs), andchildren had the most awareness of envi-ronmentally unsound livelihood practicesand global environmental problems.

Different sections of the communityalso vary in their capacity to undertakeadaptation activities. Women are particu-larly badly affected by the combination ofclimatic and environmental stresses, buttheir particular needs and wishes for adap-tation are less likely to be heard or actedupon (Jennings and McGrath, 2009) (seeBox 4). Children are affected by bothcurrent and future climate change impacts,yet their voices are rarely heard or consid-ered in climate change adaptation activi-ties (Plush, this issue).

In many National AdaptationProgrammes of Action (NAPAs), agricul-ture and forestry feature heavily as priorityprojects. However, McGrath and Jennings(2009) point out that, in Malawi, womenprioritised a crèche, family planning, accessto loans, credit, training, and free health-care over support for agriculture. Theyargued that without childcare and supportto start up small enterprises, they could notmake adaptation changes.

Wong (this issue) highlights the

dangers of ignoring intra-communitypower differentials when planning adapta-tion activities. Local chiefs ensured thattheir family members were included ascommunity representatives, excluding thevoices and interests of poorer farmers fromdecision-making processes. Even thoughthe project made special efforts to ensuregender balance, planned adaptation activ-ities were both poverty insensitive andserved to reinforce existing power inequal-ities.

Many articles in this issue use partici-patory approaches in a differentiated wayto capture the perspectives of differentgroups. Some make particular efforts toensure that more vulnerable households,and vulnerable individuals within house-holds, are included, for example, the partic-ipatory modelling process described byGaillard and Maceda, giving the opportu-nity to ensure that the voices of thosepeople are heard. Less is said, however,about analysing power relations withincommunities, and how differences in needsand priorities can be reconciled. We needto keep asking: Who benefits? Who loses?Who is empowered? Who is disempow-ered?6

Monitoring and evaluationMonitoring and evaluation (M&E) of CBAactivities will also be a challenge. GoodCBA should be truly participatory and

6 See ‘Reflections on practical ethics for participatory community-based adaptation,’ thisissue. Source: Rambaldi et al., 2006.

Climate change impacts have different effects on women and on men and have been well attested in manyplaces. The need to find water as well as firewood and fodder is a well-known reason for girls to be kept outof school, and male migration has been linked to the spread of HIV and AIDS.

In Nepal, increasing crop failure has increased the strategy of men migrating. Women are left alone tolook after families yet with the least access to resources to be able to adapt. They have less access tocultivable land to grow food and have to find water, wood, and fodder. Any worsening of livelihood optionshas to be made up in physical labour, one of the few resources women control. So to compensate for thedecline in food production, women are doing more daily waged labour. This is often extremely onerous –such as portering construction materials – and badly paid – women are paid only three-quarters of what aman would earn for the same work.

Box 4: Looking within the community

Source: S. Jennings and J. McGrath (2009).

Page 16: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan26

devolve much of the decision-makingdown to the community level, but thismakes any centralised reporting or evalu-ation activities more difficult to coordinate.This is an important issue, because it is theresponsibility of industrialised nations tohelp poor countries adapt to climatechange, so some means of evaluating theeffectiveness of funded CBA programmesis required. But any move towardscentralised tracking and evaluatingsystems must be sure not to lose sight of theneed to facilitate genuine participatoryprocesses that empower communities toadapt to climate change in ways whichaddress locally identified priorities.

Policies and institutions for CBAWhilst CBA is focused on the communitylevel, it cannot be carried out in isolationfrom events and activities occurring atother levels, for example: • CBA is affected by the services andsupport available (or more often not avail-able) at district and national levels, forexample, long-range weather forecasts,downscaled climate scenarios, satelliteimages, information on weather forecast-ing, and agricultural and other extensionservices, and the ability of support organi-sations to integrate their activities.• Some adaptation activities have spill-overeffects on other communities, for example,

Houses raised on plinths to try and keep them above flood levels, 2007, near Khulna, Bangladesh.

Phot

o: T

erry

Can

non

Page 17: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

27Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

if one community builds a dam to copewith drought, this will affect communitieslower down the river. Wong (this issue), forexample, describes how communitiesparticipated in transboundary river watergovernance in Burkina Faso and Ghana,which allowed for coordination andadvance warning over the flow of water. • Policy makers at district, national, andinternational levels need to know howcommunities are being affected by climatechange, and to understand and respond tocommunities’ priorities and needs. Thismight be through participation in ‘invited’spaces, such as through participatoryscenario development workshops (Bizikovaet al. this issue)7, or through advocacy bycommunities (e.g. Plush describes howvideos produced by children influencedpolicy makers in Nepal), or by communi-ties organising and putting pressure onpowerful local actors (Dodman, Mitlin, andRayos, unpublished abstract).

Some CBA approaches explicitly buildin a multi-level approach. Action Aid, forexample, uses participatory vulnerabilityanalysis (PVA), which starts by assessingvulnerability at the community level, butthis feeds into the district, national, andinternational levels. They argue that thereare multiple determinants/causes ofvulnerability, and many of these fall outsideindividuals or communities. Hence analy-sis of vulnerability must go beyond theindividual to micro- and macro-level polit-ical processes. Similarly, Practical Actionhave been developing a framework forunderstanding, analysing, and addressingthe multiple factors – lack of resources;fragile livelihoods; hazards; climatechange; political marginalisation; and,weak institutional support mechanisms –that contribute to vulnerability in an inte-grated and holistic manner (Pasteur,2009).

ConclusionThe theory and practice of CBA are still intheir infancy. Both are likely to grow veryrapidly, however, as needs increase as aresult of intensifying climate changeimpacts and as interest in and support foradaptation grows at national and interna-tional levels.

Although funding is increasingly avail-able for adaptation activities, simplyproviding poor country governments withmore money does not mean that it willreach the poor and those who are mostvulnerable to climate change, let aloneincrease their ability to adapt. Suchcommunities are often marginalised,remote, and receive limited services andlittle support from their governments evenwhen they are able to articulate whatsupport they need. Reaching thesehundreds of millions of people andsupporting their genuine participation inany decision-making about resource allo-cation for CBA will be an immense chal-lenge for any international or nationalprogramme or funding mechanism focus-ing on adaptation.

Whilst CBA initiatives are increasing innumber and information sharing on theseactivities is developing, translating theseactivities and documentation intoimproved policy responses and scaled upCBA initiatives worldwide remains a chal-lenge. Power structures are at the heart ofclimate change vulnerability and it isimportant to find ways to allow poorvulnerable people to influence policy andbe heard in key policy arenas, such as theUNFCCC negotiations.

To be successful, community-basedadaptation programmes will need toensure that communities are able toparticipate in identifying priorities, bothlocal and regional, and in planning, imple-menting, monitoring, and reviewing adap-

7 Participatory scenario development workshops engage those most directly concerned(e.g. community members, local officals) in discussions about how the future maydevelop, and about possible adaptation pathways, and their pros and cons. Theconclusions may feed into local, district, and national planning.

Page 18: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan28

tation. Such programmes should providesupport and link communities to relevantdecision-making institutions. They willalso need to build the capacity of localorganisations and local governments toenable them to effectively take part in deci-sion-making processes.9

CBA draws on a number of differentfields, including disaster relief work,community development work, andclimate science. These different areas ofknowledge and expertise often employdifferent languages and concepts, andthere is still much work to be done indeveloping a common understanding andlanguage, and sharing experiences andgood practice.

Continuing to document CBAprocesses in an honest and critical way isvery important, both to improve practiceand to share experience in little-docu-mented areas, such as incorporatingclimate change adaptation into healthpolicy. You will find a list of resources onCBA, including websites, later in this issue.Other important opportunities for experi-ence-sharing include the InternationalConferences on Community-Based Adap-tation (see Box 3), and the two-day Devel-

opment and Climate Days event, held eachyear during the Conference of Parties(COP) to the UNFCCC. This event has adedicated CBA session to share informa-tion on CBA with negotiators andobservers at the international climatechange negotiations.10 CBA practitionerscan also benefit from the rich literaturethat is available on participation.11

Final thoughtsWe face increasing pressure to meet themyriad challenges that a changing climatepresents. As this new community of prac-tice emerges and matures, the ethics andquality of participatory processes will becentral to the success of community-basedadaptation to climate change – and thereare both opportunities and dangers. AsAbsalom et al. wrote in 1994,

The opportunities are to initiate and sustainprocesses of change: empowering disadvan-taged people and communities, transformingorganisations, and reorienting individuals.The dangers come from demanding too much,in a top-down mode, too fast, with too littleunderstanding of participatory developmentand its implications.

8 The second and third conferences were run by the Bangladesh Centre for AdvancedStudies. See www.bcas.net for more information. See www.iied.org for moreinformation on the forthcoming 4th CBA conference in Tanzania.9 ESRC-funded seminar, Integrating Approaches: Sustainable Livelihoods, Disaster RiskReduction and Climate Change Adaptation, December 2009, organised by PracticalAction (www.practicalaction.org.uk). See: http://community.eldis.org/.59cc728710 These events are run by the International Institute for Environment and Development.For more information see: http://tinyurl.com/iied-COP15-d-c. Full URL:www.iied.org/climate-change/key-issues/climate-negotiations-capacity-building/cop15-development-and-climate-days11 See, for example, www.planotes.org for back issues of Participatory Learning andAction. Recent issues include PLA 54: Mapping for change: practice, technologies, andcommunication, and PLA 55: Practical tools for community conservation in southernAfrica. PLA 50: Critical reflections, future directions looks at participation in a wide rangeof different fields, as well as focusing on good participatory practice and ethics. IIED’sParticipatory Learning and Action: A Trainers Guide is also an invaluable resource onparticipatory approaches, processes, and methods.

The second and third International Conferences on Community-Based Adaptation were held in Dhaka,Bangladesh, in February 2007 and February 2009. This will become an annual event at which practitioners,policy makers and researchers can share information on methodologies for CBA, upscaling CBA,communicating CBA, CBA in different ecosystems, funding for CBA etc. The next will be held in Dar esSalaam, Tanzania in February 2010. The conferences involve field visits to CBA projects in differentecosystems and regions so people can see CBA activities on the ground.8

Box 3: Sharing information on CBA

Page 19: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

29Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

CONTACT DETAILSHannah ReidSenior ResearcherClimate Change GroupInternational Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)3 Endsleigh StreetLondon WC1H 0DDUKEmail: [email protected]

Mozaharul AlamProject ManagerUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)Regional Office of the Asia and Pacific (ROAP)BangkokThailandEmail: [email protected]

Rachel BergerPractical ActionThe Schumacher Centre for Technology and DevelopmentBourton on DunsmoreRUGBYCV23 9QZUKEmail: [email protected]

Terry CannonVisiting FellowClimate Change GroupInternational Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)3 Endsleigh StreetLondon WC1H 0DDUKEmail: [email protected]

Saleemul Huq Senior FellowClimate Change Group International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)3 Endsleigh StreetLondon WC1H 0DDUKEmail: [email protected]

Angela MilliganCo-EditorParticipatory Learning and Action seriesInternational Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) 3 Endsleigh StreetLondon WC1H 0DDUKEmail: [email protected]

As we move forward with community-based adaptation to climate change, wehope that this issue of Participatory Learn-ing and Action will contribute to learningand experience sharing around CBA – andhelp to promote good participatory practice.

Page 20: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan30

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSSpecial thanks to Holly Ashley for her careful reading of this overview,many helpful suggestions, and support during the writing process.Thanks also to Michel Pimbert for insights around the quality ofparticipation.

REFERENCESAbsalom, E. et al., (1995). ‘Sharing our concerns and looking to the

future.’ In PLA Notes 22, February 1995. IIED: London. Online:www.planotes.org/documents/plan_02201.PDF

Action Aid International (2005). Participatory vulnerability analysis: astep-by-step guide for field staff, Action Aid International

Adnan, S., A. Barren, S.M. Nurul Alam, and A. Brustinow (1992).People's participation: NGOs and the flood action plan. Researchand Advisory Services: Dhaka, Bangladesh

Anuchiracheeva, S. and T. Pinkaew (2009). Case Jasmine Rice in theWeeping Plain: Adapting Rice Farming to Climate Change inNortheast Thailand. Oxfam Disaster Risk Reduction and ClimateChange Adaptation Resources, Oxfam GB

Chambers, R., N. Kenton and H. Ashley (2004). Participatory Learningand Action 50 Critical reflections, future directions. IIED: London.Online: www.planotes.org/documents/plan_05003.pdf

Christian Aid (2009a). ‘Module I: Framework and Approach.’Christian Aid Adaptation Toolkit: Integrating adaptation toclimate change into secure livelihoods, p.13. Christian Aid: UK

Christian Aid (2009b). ‘Module II: Developing a climate changeanalysis.’ Christian Aid Adaptation Toolkit: Integrating adaptationto climate change into secure livelihoods. Christian Aid: UK

Corbett, J., G. Rambaldi, P.K. Kyem, D. Weiner, R. Olson, J. Muchemi,M. McCall, and R. Chambers (2006). ‘Overview: mapping forchange – the emergence of a new practice.’ Participatory Learningand Action 54 Mapping for Change: practice, technologies andcommunications. IIED: London and CTA: Wageningen. Online:www.planotes.org/pla_backissues/54.html

Gill, G. (1991). ‘But how does it compare with the REAL data?’ In PLANotes 14, IIED: London. Online:www.planotes.org/pla_backissues/14.html#AB1

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007). FourthAssessment Report, United Nations

Jennings, S. and J. McGrath (2009). What Happened to the Seasons?Oxfam GB Research Report: UK

Pasteur K., (2009). ‘Practical Action’s Vulnerability to ResilienceFramework’ to be presented at Frameworks for Integration:challenges and opportunities for bringing together Disaster RiskReduction, Climate Change Adaptation, and SustainableLivelihoods, 4th Livelihoods Seminar ito be held in December2009. http://community.eldis.org/.59cc7287/

Pretty, J., I. Guijt, J. Thompson, and I. Scoones (1995). ParticipatoryLearning and Action: a trainer’s guide. IIED ParticipatoryMethodology Series, IIED: London

Rambaldi, G., R. Chambers, M. McCall and J. Fox (2006). ‘Practicalethics for PGIS practitioners, facilitators, technology intermediariesand researchers.’ In Participatory Learning and Action 54Mapping for Change: practice, technologies andcommunications. IIED: London and CTA: Wageningen. Online:www.planotes.org/pla_backissues/54.html

Page 21: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

31Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview

Annex 1: Predicted impacts of climate change, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity byregion

Region

Africa

Asia

Likely regional impacts of climate change

• By 2020, between 75 million and 250 millionpeople are projected to be exposed to increasedwater stress due to climate change. Coupled withincreased demand, this will adversely affectlivelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems.

• Agricultural production, including access to food, inmany African countries and regions is projected to beseverely compromised by climate variability andchange. The area suitable for agriculture, the lengthof growing seasons and yield potential, particularlyalong the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, areexpected to decrease. This would further adverselyaffect food security and exacerbate malnutrition inthe continent. In some countries, yields from rain-fedagriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.

• Local food supplies are projected to be negativelyaffected by decreasing fisheries resources in largelakes due to rising water temperatures, which may beexacerbated by continued overfishing.

• Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with largepopulations. The cost of adaptation could amount toat least 5-10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).Mangroves and coral reefs are projected to be furtherdegraded, with additional consequences for fisheriesand tourism.

• Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected toincrease flooding, rock avalanches from destabilisedslopes, and to affect water resources within the nexttwo to three decades. This will be followed bydecreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

• Freshwater availability in Central, South, East, andSouth-East Asia, particularly in large river basins, isprojected to decrease due to climate change which,along with population growth and increasingdemand arising from higher standards of living, couldadversely affect more than a billion people by the2050s.

• Coastal areas, especially heavily populatedmegadelta regions in South, East and South-EastAsia, will be at greatest risk due to increased floodingfrom the sea and, in some megadeltas, flooding fromthe rivers.

Vulnerability, adaptive capacity

• Most vulnerable due to multiplestresses and low adaptive capacityis low due to low GDP per capita,widespread poverty (the number ofpoor grew over the 1990s),inequitable land distribution, andlow education levels. There is alsoan absence of safety nets,particularly after harvest failures.

• More than one quarter of thepopulation lives within 100 km ofthe coast and most of Africa’slargest cities are along coastsvulnerable to sea-level rise, coastalerosion, and extreme events.

• Individual coping strategies fordesertification are already strained,leading to deepening poverty.

• Dependence on rain-fedagriculture is high.

• Adaptive capacity is likely to begreatest in countries with civil order,political openness, and soundeconomic management. Someadaptation to current climatevariability is taking place; however,this may be insufficient for futurechanges in climate.

• Adaptive capacity varies betweencountries depending on socialstructure, culture, economic capacity,and level of environmentaldegradation.

• As a region, poverty in both ruraland urban areas has decreased inAsia.

• Capacity is increasing in someparts of Asia (for example, thesuccess of early warning systems forextreme weather events inBangladesh), but is still restraineddue to poor resource bases,inequalities in income, weakinstitutions, and limited technology.

Page 22: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

60 � Reid, Alum, Berger, Cannon, Huq, and Milligan32

Annex 1 (continued): Predicted impacts of climate change, vulnerability, and adaptivecapacity by region

Region

Asia(continued)

Latin America

Likely regional impacts of climate change

• Climate change is projected to impinge on thesustainable development of most developingcountries of Asia, as it compounds the pressures onnatural resources and the environment associatedwith rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, andeconomic development.

• It is projected that crop yields could increase byup to 20% in East and South-East Asia while theycould decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asiaby the mid-21st century. Taken together, andconsidering the influence of rapid populationgrowth and urbanisation, the risk of hunger isprojected to remain very high in several developingcountries.

• Endemic morbidity and mortality due todiarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floodsand droughts are expected to rise in East, Southand South-East Asia due to projected changes inthe hydrological cycle associated with globalwarming.

• Increases in coastal water temperature wouldexacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity ofcholera in South Asia.

• By mid-century, increases in temperature andassociated decreases in soil water are projected tolead to gradual replacement of tropical forest bysavannah in eastern Amazonia. Semi-aridvegetation will tend to be replaced by arid-landvegetation. There is a risk of significant biodiversityloss through species extinction in many areas oftropical Latin America.

• In drier areas, climate change is expected to leadto salination and desertification of agricultural land.Productivity of some important crops is projected todecrease and livestock productivity to decline, withadverse consequences for food security. Intemperate zones soya bean yields are projected toincrease.

• Sea-level rise is projected to cause increased riskof flooding in low-lying areas. Increases in seasurface temperature due to climate change areprojected to have adverse effects on Mesoamericancoral reefs, and cause shifts in the location of south-east Pacific fish stocks.

• Changes in precipitation patterns and thedisappearance of glaciers are projected to

Vulnerability, adaptive capacity

• Some social indicators haveimproved over the 1990s,including adult literacy, lifeexpectancy, and access to safewater.

• Other factors such as infantmortality, low secondary schoolenrolment, and high incomeinequality contribute to limitingadaptive capacity.

• Some countries have madeefforts to adapt, particularlythrough conservation of keyecosystems, early warningsystems, risk management inagriculture, strategies for flooddrought and coastalmanagement, and diseasesurveillance systems. However,the effectiveness of these effortsis outweighed by: lack of basicinformation, observation andmonitoring systems; lack ofcapacity building and appropriate

Page 23: Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview 1 · Incorporating climate change information CBA work needs to incorporate informa-tion on climate change and its impacts

33

Annex 1 (continued): Predicted impacts of climate change, vulnerability, and adaptivecapacity by region

Region

Latin America (contiued)

Small IslandStates

significantly affect water availability forhuman consumption, agriculture, and energygeneration.

• The projected sea-level rise of 5 mm/yr forthe next hundred years would cause enhancedsoil erosion, loss of land, poverty, dislocationof people, increased risk from storm surges,reduced resilience of coastal ecosystems,saltwater intrusion into freshwater resourcesand high resource costs to respond to andadapt to changes.

• Coral reefs would be negatively affected bybleaching and by reduced calcification ratesdue to higher carbon dioxide levels; mangrove,sea grass bed, and other coastal ecosystemsand the associated biodiversity would beadversely affected by rising temperatures andaccelerated sea-level rise.

• Small islands, whether located in the tropicsor higher latitudes, have characteristics whichmake them especially vulnerable to the effectsof climate change, sea-level rise and extremeevents.

• Deterioration in coastal conditions, forexample through erosion of beaches and coralbleaching, is expected to affect local resources,e.g. fisheries, and reduce the value of thesedestinations for tourism.

• Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbateinundation, storm surge, erosion, and othercoastal hazards, thus threatening vitalinfrastructure, settlements, and facilities thatsupport the livelihoods of island communities.

Climate change is projected by mid-century toreduce water resources in many small islands,e.g. in the Caribbean and Pacific, to the pointwhere they become insufficient to meetdemand during low-rainfall periods.

• With higher temperatures, increasedinvasion by non-native species is expected tooccur, particularly on mid- and high latitudeislands.

political, institutional, andtechnological frameworks; lowincome; and settlements invulnerable areas, among others.

• Adaptive capacity of humansystems is generally low in smallisland states, and vulnerabilityhigh; small island states arelikely to be among the countriesmost seriously impacted byclimate change.

• Declines in coastalecosystems would negativelyimpact reef fish and threatenreef fisheries, those who earntheir livelihoods from reeffisheries, and those who rely onthe fisheries as a significant foodsource.

• Limited arable land andextensive soil salination makeagriculture on small islands, bothfor domestic food productionand cash crop exports, highlyvulnerable to climate change.

• Tourism, an important sourceof income and foreign exchangefor many islands, would facesevere disruption from climatechange and sea-level rise.

Likely regional impacts of climate change

Source: Adapted from IPCC (2007).

Vulnerability, adaptive capacity

Community-based adaptation to climate change: an overview