Communication & Cooperation · Introduction ›Intuitive idea: communication is necessaryfor...
Transcript of Communication & Cooperation · Introduction ›Intuitive idea: communication is necessaryfor...
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Communication & Cooperation
Yu Awaya and Vijay Krishna
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Introduction
› Intuitive idea: communication is necessary for cooperation
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Introduction
› Intuitive idea: communication is necessary for cooperation
› One model--pre-play comm. in one-shot games
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Introduction
› Intuitive idea: communication is necessary for cooperation
› One model--pre-play comm. in one-shot games – Comm ⟶ coordination and correlation
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Introduction
› Intuitive idea: communication is necessary for cooperation
› One model--pre-play comm. in one-shot games – Comm ⟶ coordination and correlation
› Our model--in-play comm. in repeated games
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Introduction
› Intuitive idea: communication is necessary for cooperation
› One model--pre-play comm. in one-shot games – Comm ⟶ coordination and correlation
› Our model--in-play comm. in repeated games– Comm ⟶ improves monitoring
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Antitrust Law
› Tacit vs. explicit collusion– "Tacit collusion ... describes a process, not in itself unlawful, by which …firms in a concentrated market might in effect share monopoly power, setting their prices at a profit-maximizing supracompetitive level ..." (US Supreme Court, 1993)
› Theoretical basis for the distinction?
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Cartel meetings
Industry Frequency of meetings
Choline chloride
Citric acid
Copper tubes
Lysine ?
Plasterboard
Vitamins A and E
Zinc phosphate
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Cartel meetings
Industry Frequency of meetings
Choline chloride 2-3 weeks
Citric acid monthly
Copper tubes 1-2 months
Lysine monthly
Plasterboard quarterly
Vitamins A and E weekly/quarterly
Zinc phosphate monthly
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Example 1
C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3, -1 0, 0
Claim: With perfect monitoring, ∀𝛿 ≥ ⅓, there is an efficient equilibrium.
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C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3 -1 0, 0
h l
h ½ 0
l 0 ½
h l
h ¼ ¼
l ¼ ¼
Players only see private signals h or l after every period.
Imperfect private monitoring
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C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3 -1 0, 0
h l
h ½ 0
l 0 ½
h l
h ¼ ¼
l ¼ ¼
Players only see private signals h or l after every period.
Imperfect private monitoring
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C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3, -1 0, 0
h l
h ½ 0
l 0 ½
h l
h ¼ ¼
l ¼ ¼
Permanent deviation to D leaves marginal distribution on other’s signals unchanged.
Claim: ∀𝛿, DD is the only eqm path.
Private monitoring precludes cooperation
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C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3, -1 0, 0
h l
h ½ 0
l 0 ½
h l
h ¼ ¼
l ¼ ¼
Play C and report truthfully; if reports match, play C; otherwise, play D forever.
Claim: ∀𝛿 ≥ ½, CC is an eqm path w/comm.
CHEAPTALK
Communication restores cooperation
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Example 1
C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3, -1 0, 0
h l
h ½ 0
l 0 ½
h l
h ¼ ¼
l ¼ ¼
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Example 2
C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3, -1 0, 0
h l
h ¼ ¼
l ¼ ¼
h l
h ½ 0
l 0 ½
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Example 2
C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3, -1 0, 0
h l
h ¼ ¼
l ¼ ¼
h l
h ½ 0
l 0 ½
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Communication ⇏ cooperation
C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3, -1 0, 0
h l
h ¼ ¼
l ¼ ¼
h l
h ½ 0
l 0 ½
Claim: ∀𝛿 ≥ ½, only DD is played w/ or w/o comm.
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Communication ⇏ cooperation
C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3, -1 0, 0
h l
h ¼ ¼
l ¼ ¼
h l
h ½ 0
l 0 ½
Play D and lie (“h ” and “l ” with prob. ½). Joint dist. over P1’s reports and P2’s signals is unchanged.
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Example 3
R P S
R 10, 10 0, 11 11, 0
P 11, 0 10, 10 0, 11
S 0, 11 11, 0 10,10
13
0 0
0 13
0
0 0 13
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
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Communication is not necessary for cooperation
R P S
R 10, 10 0, 11 11, 0
P 11, 0 10, 10 0, 11
S 0, 11 11, 0 10,10
13
0 0
0 13
0
0 0 13
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Claim: ∀𝛿 ≥ 3
11, there is an efficient eqm w/o comm.
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One-shot game
› 𝑛 players
› Finite actions 𝐴𝑖
› Payoffs 𝑢𝑖: 𝐴→ ℜ
› Nash equilibrium 𝑎𝑁
› Efficient action 𝑎∗: max𝑎𝜆 ∙ 𝑢 𝑎
› 𝑎∗ not a Nash equilibrium and 𝑢(𝑎∗) ≫ 𝑢(𝑎𝑁)
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𝑢∗
𝑢𝑁
𝜆
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Repeated game
› Actions 𝑎𝑖
› Signals 𝑦𝑖 ∈ 𝑌𝑖
› Actions generate signals as 𝑞 ∙ 𝑎 ∈ Δ(𝑌)
› Observe private signal 𝑦𝑖 only
› Strategy maps own past actions and own past signals to current actions
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Repeated game with communication
› Actions 𝑎𝑖
› Signals 𝑦𝑖 ∈ 𝑌𝑖
› Actions generate signals as 𝑞 ∙ 𝑎 ∈ Δ(𝑌)
› Observe private signal 𝑦𝑖 only
› Exchange cheap talk messages
› Strategy maps own past actions, own past signals and all past messages to current actions
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Communication is necessary for cooperation
Main result: Fix any large 𝛿. Under certain conditions on the monitoring, there is a nearly efficient eqm w/ commwhereas all eqa w/o comm are bounded away from eff.
Step 1: bound on payoffs w/o comm
Step 2: construct a nearly efficient eqm w/comm
Not a folk-theorem!
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𝑢∗
𝑢𝑁
w/o comm
w/ comm
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Background
Folk Theorem with communication:
Compte (Ecta, 1998), Kandori & Matsushima (Ecta, 1998)
Folk Theorem without communication:
Sugaya (2013)
Necessity of communication:
Awaya & Krishna (AER, 2016)
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Step 1: Bound without communication
Bound depends on
› Payoffs: 𝑢
› Monitoring quality:
𝜂 = max𝑖max𝑎,𝑏𝑖 𝑞−𝑖 ∙ 𝑏𝑖׀ , 𝑎−𝑖 − 𝑞−𝑖 ∙ 𝑎׀𝑇𝑉
› Discount factor: 𝛿
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Step 1: Bound without communication
Proposition:
𝑁𝐸 𝐺𝛿,𝑞 ⊆ 휀-𝐶𝐶𝐸(𝐺)
where 휀 = 2𝛿2
1−𝛿𝜂 × 𝑢 ∞.
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Step 1: Bound without communication
Proposition:
𝑁𝐸 𝐺𝛿,𝑞 ⊆ 휀-𝐶𝐶𝐸(𝐺)
where 휀 = 2𝛿2
1−𝛿𝜂 × 𝑢 ∞
Repeatedgame
One-shot game
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Step 1: Bound without communication
Proposition:
𝑁𝐸 𝐺𝛿,𝑞 ⊆ 휀-𝐶𝐶𝐸(𝐺)
where 휀 = 2𝛿2
1−𝛿𝜂 × 𝑢 ∞.
Monitoringquality
Coarsecorrelatedequilibria
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Coarse Correlated Equilibrium
𝛽 ∈ ∆(×𝑗∈𝑁𝐴𝑗) is a coarse correlated equilibrium if
for all 𝑖 and 𝑎𝑖 ∈ 𝐴𝑖,
𝑢𝑖(𝛽) ≥ 𝑢𝑖(𝑎𝑖 , 𝛽−𝑖)
Moulin & Vial (1979); Roughgarden (2016)
𝑁𝐸 ⊂ 𝐶𝐸 ⊂ 𝐶𝐶𝐸
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Prisoners’ Dilemma
𝑁𝐸 = 𝐶𝐸 = 𝐶𝐶𝐸
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𝑁𝐸 = 𝐶𝐸
𝑢∗
R-P-S
𝐶𝐶𝐸
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휀-Coarse Correlated Equilibrium
𝛽 ∈ ∆(×𝑗∈𝑁𝐴𝑗) is an 휀-coarse correlated equilibrium if
for all 𝑖 and 𝑎𝑖 ∈ 𝐴𝑖,
𝑢𝑖 𝛽 ≥ 𝑢𝑖 𝑎𝑖 , 𝛽−𝑖 − 휀
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Prisoners’ Dilemma
𝑁𝐸 = 𝐶𝐸 = 𝐶𝐶𝐸
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Static incentives
For 𝑣 ∈ 𝐹 define:
Φ 𝑣 = min𝛽∈∆(𝐴) max𝑖 max𝑎𝑖𝑢𝑖 𝑎𝑖 , 𝛽−𝑖 − 𝑢𝑖 𝛽
s. t. 𝑢 𝛽 = 𝑣
› Φ is convex
› Φ 𝑣 ≤ 휀 ⇔ 휀-𝐶𝐶𝐸(𝐺)
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Dynamic incentives
Lemma 1:
Φ 𝑣 = min𝛼∈∆(𝐴)∞ max𝑖 maxഥ𝜎𝑖𝑣𝑖 ത𝜎𝑖 , 𝛼−𝑖 − 𝑣𝑖 𝛼
s. t. 𝑣 𝛼 = 𝑣
Proof:
Dynamic smoothing of incentives (Φ is convex).
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Step 1: Bound without communication
› Let 𝜎 be a strategy with payoffs 𝑣 𝜎 such that
𝑣 ≡ 𝑣 𝜎 ∉ 휀−𝐶𝐶𝐸 𝐺
› Then Φ 𝑣 > 휀
› ∃𝑖 and ഥσ𝑖 such that 𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, α−𝑖) − 𝑣𝑖 σ > 휀
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Step 1: Bound without communication
𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, σ−𝑖) − 𝑣𝑖 σ =
𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, σ−𝑖) − 𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, α−𝑖) + 𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, α−𝑖) − 𝑣𝑖 σ
↑ ↑
Loss when punished Gain when unpunished
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Step 1: Bound without communication
Lemma 2:
𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, σ−𝑖) − 𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, α−𝑖) < 2𝛿2
1 − 𝛿𝜂 × 𝑢 ∞
𝜂 is monitoring quality
ത𝑢 is largest payoff
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Step 1: Bound without communication
𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, σ−𝑖) − 𝑣𝑖 σ =
𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, σ−𝑖) − 𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, α−𝑖) + 𝑣𝑖(ഥσ𝑖, α−𝑖) − 𝑣𝑖 σ
∨ ∨
−2𝛿2
1 − 𝛿𝜂 × 𝑢 ∞ 휀
(Lemma 2) (Lemma 1)
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Step 1: Bound without communication
Proposition:
𝑁𝐸 𝐺𝛿,𝑞 ⊆ 휀-𝐶𝐶𝐸(𝐺)
where 휀 = 2𝛿2
1−𝛿𝜂 × 𝑢 ∞.
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𝑢𝑁
𝐶𝐶𝐸
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Effective bound without communication
Condition 1: ∄ an efficient coarse correlated eqm.
Ensures bound is effective when 𝜂 = 0.
Fails in Example 3 (RPS)
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Step 2: Equilibrium with communication
Strategy:
› In state 𝑎∗ play 𝑎𝑖∗; otherwise, play 𝑎𝑖
𝑁
› If played 𝑎𝑖∗, report signal truthfully; otherwise optimize
› State transitions depend on signal reports 𝑥 and 𝑦
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Equilibrium with communication
TALK
𝑥, 𝑦𝑎∗ 𝑎𝑁
𝑝(𝑥, 𝑦) 1 − 𝑝(𝑥, 𝑦)
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Proposition: If types are strictly affiliated, there exists a strictly IC mechanism in which every player has the same ex post payoffs.
Truth-telling
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Proposition: With strictly affiliated types, there exists a strictly IC mechanism in which every player has the same ex post payoffs.
Truth-telling
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Suppose 𝑞∗ is strictly affiliated over [0,1]2. Define
𝑃 𝑥, 𝑦 = 𝑥𝑦 −න0
𝑥
𝐸[𝑌ห𝑋 = 𝑠]𝑑𝑠 −න0
𝑦
𝐸[𝑋ห𝑌 = 𝑡]𝑑𝑡
Truth-telling
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Suppose 𝑞∗ is strictly affiliated over [0,1]2. Define
𝑃 𝑥, 𝑦 = 𝑥𝑦 −න0
𝑥
𝐸[𝑌ห𝑋 = 𝑠]𝑑𝑠 −න0
𝑦
𝐸[𝑋ห𝑌 = 𝑡]𝑑𝑡
Claim: 𝑞∗ is a strict correlated eqm of (𝑃, 𝑃).
Proof: Report 𝑧 when signal is 𝑥
𝐸[𝑃 𝑧, 𝑌 ቚ𝑋 = 𝑥] = 𝑧𝐸[𝑌ห𝑋 = 𝑥] −න0
𝑧
𝐸[𝑌ห𝑋 = 𝑠]𝑑𝑠 − 𝐶(𝑥)
First-order condition0 = 𝐸[𝑌ห𝑋 = 𝑥] −𝐸[𝑌ห𝑋 = 𝑧]
Truth-telling
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Correlation
› Normalize 𝑃 to 𝑝 ∈ [0,1].
› Let 𝛾 = 𝑞( ȁ⋅ 𝑎∗) − 𝑞0𝑇𝑉
where 𝑞0 is closest perfectly
correlated distribution.
› As 𝛾 → 0, 𝑝(𝑥, 𝑦) → 𝑝0 𝑥, 𝑦 = ቊ1 𝑥 = 𝑦0 𝑥 ≠ 𝑦
› 𝑝0 leads to full efficiency
› Find 𝛿 so that eqm with 𝑝0
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Main result
Theorem: Fix 𝛿 > 𝛿.
There exist (ഥ𝜂, ҧ𝛾) such that for all 𝑞 with (𝜂, 𝛾) ≪ (ഥ𝜂, ҧ𝛾), there is an eqm w/ comm whose welfare exceeds that from any eqm w/o comm.
𝜂 = monitoring quality
𝛾 = correlation in 𝑞∗
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Example 4
C D
C 2, 2 -1, 3
D 3, -1 0, 0
13(1−𝛾)
16𝛾
16𝛾
16𝛾
13(1−𝛾)
16𝛾
16𝛾
16𝛾
13(1−𝛾)
13−𝜂
2 19−𝜂2
19−13𝜂
19−𝜂2 1
3+𝜂
2 19+13𝜂
19−13𝜂
19+13𝜂
19
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𝛾
𝜂
120
120
𝛿 = 0.8
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Example 4
0.77
1.89
𝛿 = 0.8
𝜂 = 0.02𝛾 = 0.02