Communicating weather forecasts
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12 Weather – January 2012, Vol. 67, No. 1 The Australian Summer 2010/2011 climate/ahead/archive/rainfall/20101026. shtml [accessed 26 October 2010]. Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. 2011. Frequent heavy rain events in late 2010/ early 2011 lead to widespread flooding across eastern Australia. Special Climate Statement No 24, 7 January 2011. http:// www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/special- statements.shtml [accessed 24 February 2011]. Giles BD. 2010. The New South Wales floods 5-11 December 2010. Meteorol. Soc. N. Z. Newsl. 123: 9–12. Giles BD. 2011a. The Queensland floods of December 2010/early January 2011 – and the media. Weather 66 (2): 55. Giles BD. 2011b. Floods in Australia. Weather 22(2): 30. Meyers G, McIntosh P, Pigot L, Pook M. 2007. The Years of El Niño, La Niña, and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Clim. 20: 2872–2880. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T. 1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401: 360–363. showing signs of weakening….All available climate models suggest further weakening of the La Niña is likely through autumn. Concluding remarks The abnormal Australian summer of 2010/2011 was the result of the confluence of La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole for only the fourth time in the last 50 years. Readers who want more detailed informa- tion about any of the information outlined above should access the various Monthly Weather Reviews (at http://www.bom.gov. au/climate/mwr/) and the Special Climate Statement No 24 issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (2011). Bureau of Meteorology news releases Throughout January 2011 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was emphasising the strong and persistent La Niña in their ‘ENSO Wrap-up’ (http://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/). On 19 January they noted: Climate indicators of ENSO, including tropi- cal cloud amount, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and Pacific sea-sur- face and sub-surface temperatures, all remain well in excess of La Niña thresholds. Most have exceeded these thresholds since the middle of 2010. The average August to December SOI (+21.1) has only been exceeded by the La Niña of 1917–1918 (+24.4), with the 1975–1976 La Niña value (+18.8) ranked third. Several other indices also suggest the La Niña events of 2010–2011, 1975–1976, 1917–1918, 1955– 1956 and possibly 1988–1989, rank closely in terms of the strongest events on record. On 2 February 2011 it was: Climate indicators of ENSO continue to indi- cate a strong, mature La Niña, although there are clear signs the event has passed its peak. And by 16 February 2011: The La Niña event which has dominated the Australian climate for the past nine months is References Beale B. 2009. Indian Ocean causes big dry: drought mystery solved. University of New South Wales Faculty of Science News. http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/ indian-ocean-drought [accessed 11 July 2011]. Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. 2010 Increased rainfall odds for most of Australia. National Seasonal Outlook: Probabilities for November 2010 to January 2011. http://www.bom.gov.au/ Correspondence to: Brian D. Giles [email protected] © Royal Meteorological Society, 2012 DOI: 10.1002/wea.860 Communicating weather forecasts In our previous issue, Philip Eden (66: 325- 327) expressed some forthright views on the communication of weather forecasts. We would like to keep that theme open and welcome readers’ letters on it. Here we include a report by Alison Black on a recent workshop on the subject. Designing the weather: an interdisciplinary workshop at the University of Reading How can weather forecasting, and particu- larly the uncertainty it entails, be presented to inform the public effectively? That was the question asked at an interdisciplinary workshop of researchers and postgraduate students from across the UK, convening to consider ‘Designing the Weather’ (on a record-breakingly warm, last day of September). The workshop, at the University of Reading’s Department of Typography & Graphic Communication, was one of a series of networking activities, funded by the Arts & Humanities Research Council, as part of LUCID (Learning, Understanding and Communicating about Information Design). The theme was prompted by a research collaboration between the University’s departments of Meteorology and Psychology and its Centre for Information Design Research. The workshop developed from briefings across the disciplines about the science of forecasting, systematic biases in people’s understanding of probabilistic information and the potential of different media to con- vey forecast information effectively. A panel of members of the public, among them Reading University’s energy officer (who is also a wind-surfing enthusiast), a keen gar- dener and a youth activity leader joined the workshop to describe their experiences (not always positive) of using weather forecasts. Some common themes emerged from both the briefings and the public input: (a) current, ‘iconised’ forecast presentations lack the detail that people feel they need to make decisions and there is some nostalgia for (although not necessarily full under- standing of ) older-style forecasting using isobar maps; (b) lack of clarity regarding the probabilistic nature of forecasts (and par- ticularly the differing levels of accuracy achievable in models for 24-hour and longer-term forecasts) results in scepticism about forecasting overall; (c) memories of specific failures (the apocryphal hurricane of 1987 and the elusive barbecue summer of 2009) colour perceptions of forecast accu- racy. One of our public informants com- mented I look out of the window in the morning, and that’s always more reliable than the forecast. There seemed to be sub- stantial opportunities for developing design responses. In the design development phase of the workshop, students considered how decreasing levels of confidence in weather forecasts over time could be displayed
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Transcript of Communicating weather forecasts
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climate/ahead/archive/rainfall/20101026.shtml [accessed 26 October 2010].
Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. 2011. Frequent heavy rain events in late 2010/early 2011 lead to widespread flooding across eastern Australia. Special Climate Statement No 24, 7 January 2011. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/special-statements.shtml [accessed 24 February 2011].
Giles BD. 2010. The New South Wales floods 5-11 December 2010. Meteorol. Soc. N. Z. Newsl. 123: 9–12.
Giles BD. 2011a. The Queensland floods of December 2010/early January 2011 – and the media. Weather 66 (2): 55.
Giles BD. 2011b. Floods in Australia. Weather 22(2): 30.
Meyers G, McIntosh P, Pigot L, Pook M. 2007. The Years of El Niño, La Niña, and interactions with the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Clim. 20: 2872–2880.
Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T. 1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401: 360–363.
showing signs of weakening….All available climate models suggest further weakening of the La Niña is likely through autumn.
Concluding remarksThe abnormal Australian summer of 2010/2011 was the result of the confluence of La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole for only the fourth time in the last 50 years.
Readers who want more detailed informa-tion about any of the information outlined above should access the various Monthly Weather Reviews (at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/) and the Special Climate Statement No 24 issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (2011).
Bureau of Meteorology news releasesThroughout January 2011 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was emphasising the strong and persistent La Niña in their ‘ENSO Wrap-up’ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/).
On 19 January they noted: Climate indicators of ENSO, including tropi-
cal cloud amount, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and Pacific sea-sur-face and sub-surface temperatures, all remain well in excess of La Niña thresholds. Most have exceeded these thresholds since the middle of 2010. The average August to December SOI (+21.1) has only been exceeded by the La Niña of 1917–1918 (+24.4), with the 1975–1976 La Niña value (+18.8) ranked third. Several other indices also suggest the La Niña events of 2010–2011, 1975–1976, 1917–1918, 1955–1956 and possibly 1988–1989, rank closely in terms of the strongest events on record.
On 2 February 2011 it was: Climate indicators of ENSO continue to indi-
cate a strong, mature La Niña, although there are clear signs the event has passed its peak.
And by 16 February 2011: The La Niña event which has dominated the
Australian climate for the past nine months is
ReferencesBeale B. 2009. Indian Ocean causes big dry: drought mystery solved. University of New South Wales Faculty of Science News. http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/indian-ocean-drought [accessed 11 July 2011].
Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. 2010 Increased rainfall odds for most of Australia. National Seasonal Outlook: Probabilities for November 2010 to January 2011. http://www.bom.gov.au/
Correspondence to: Brian D. Giles
© Royal Meteorological Society, 2012
DOI: 10.1002/wea.860
Communicating weather forecastsIn our previous issue, Philip Eden (66: 325-327) expressed some forthright views on the communication of weather forecasts. We would like to keep that theme open and welcome readers’ letters on it. Here we include a report by Alison Black on a recent workshop on the subject.
Designing the weather: an interdisciplinary workshop at the University of ReadingHow can weather forecasting, and particu-larly the uncertainty it entails, be presented to inform the public effectively? That was the question asked at an interdisciplinary workshop of researchers and postgraduate students from across the UK, convening to consider ‘Designing the Weather’ (on a record-breakingly warm, last day of September). The workshop, at the University of Reading’s Department of Typography & Graphic Communication, was one of a
series of networking activities, funded by the Arts & Humanities Research Council, as part of LUCID (Learning, Understanding and Communicating about Information Design). The theme was prompted by a research collaboration between the University’s departments of Meteorology and Psychology and its Centre for Information Design Research.
The workshop developed from briefings across the disciplines about the science of forecasting, systematic biases in people’s understanding of probabilistic information and the potential of different media to con-vey forecast information effectively. A panel of members of the public, among them Reading University’s energy officer (who is also a wind-surfing enthusiast), a keen gar-dener and a youth activity leader joined the workshop to describe their experiences (not always positive) of using weather forecasts.
Some common themes emerged from both the briefings and the public input:
(a) current, ‘iconised’ forecast presentations lack the detail that people feel they need to make decisions and there is some nostalgia for (although not necessarily full under-standing of ) older-style forecasting using isobar maps; (b) lack of clarity regarding the probabilistic nature of forecasts (and par-ticularly the differing levels of accuracy achievable in models for 24-hour and longer-term forecasts) results in scepticism about forecasting overall; (c) memories of specific failures (the apocryphal hurricane of 1987 and the elusive barbecue summer of 2009) colour perceptions of forecast accu-racy. One of our public informants com-mented I look out of the window in the morning, and that’s always more reliable than the forecast. There seemed to be sub-stantial opportunities for developing design responses.
In the design development phase of the workshop, students considered how decreasing levels of confidence in weather forecasts over time could be displayed
13
Weather – January 2012, Vol. 67, No. 1
Comm
unicating weather forecasts
Overall there was a sense that many members of the public are willing to engage with more subtlety in weather forecasting than is currently available. While simplified forecasting might be appropriate for casual viewing or rapid inspection, there is an appetite for educative, detailed presenta-tion of probabilistic forecasts. Summing up the outcomes of the workshop, Andrew Charlton-Perez, who led the meteorological perspective, commented I think there is a fear of [providing more information to people] amongst our community because we think people need it presented very simply. But the members of the public who joined the work-shop and those who participated in it think that would be useful. So that’s something I can take back.
Historical workshop stimuliThe workshop looked backward as well as forward. Students considered historical fore-cast presentations, such as this hand-drawn daily forecast from the Festival of Britain,
Correspondence to: Alison [email protected]
© Royal Meteorological Society, 2012
DOI: 10.1002/wea.883
graphically; how a single icon for a day could be ‘unpacked’ in interactive media to show the relative probabilities and time sequence of all aspects of the weather; whether the different qualities of rain, sun or wind might be shown in ways that relate to people’s experience (reminiscent of the Beaufort scale for wind) and with more rel-evance to individual localities than they are at the moment; whether the traditional weather map continues to be relevant in modern, interactive media; how the public might contribute to forecasts, using geolo-cation to crowd-source social forecast vali-dations; how individuals might set their priorities for forecast information (for exam-ple a gardener might be particularly inter-ested in rainfall, but less interested in temperature unless it varied significantly beyond norms, whilst a professional environmental office might be particularly concerned to track temperature fluctua-tions), and whether individuals might set personal alerts for particular weather conditions.
1951. While there is nostalgia for traditional weather maps, interactive media and geolo-calisation may, in some cases, obviate maps altogether.
