Communicating theWEATHER

Elizabeth KrajewskiLeader, Aviation Forecast OperationThe Weather Company, An IBM Business

AGENDA

• Overview of Our Operation

• Aviation Forecast Paradigm

• Decision Support Services

• Role of Collaboration

• A Look to the Future

Our Value Proposition

Transforming Precise Weather into Better

Outcomes

DELIVER

precise

information

TRANSFORM

into insights

IMPROVE

outcomes

OPTIMIZE

decisions

OUR FORECASTING TEAM

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

• Pattern Recognition

• Weather Models

• Deep Thunder

• Observational Data (IoT)

• Understanding Aviation

Impacts

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

FORECASTING THE WEATHER

Models 162 Forecast

ModelsA Single Forecast Model Doesn’t Produce The Best

Results; A Combination of 162 Does

IMPROVEDACCURACY

The Weather Company’s

Aviation Paradigm

FoD

Deep Thunder

162 Models

Radar

Post

Processors

Aviation

Products

TWC Aviation

Forecasting

Operations

Other Aviation Weather Data

• Underpinned with our aviation

tuned weather model

• Leverage machine learning from

our FOD system

• Monitor and automate

forecasts for TAF and Enroute

Hazards

• Human forecasters remain “in

the loop”

• Embedded forecasters provide

risk and outcome guidance to

airlines.

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

Deep Understanding

of Aviation Impacts!

RISK OUTLOOK

5 Day Outlook for HUB Cities

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

COMPRESSION / LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

It’s not just about the forecast

Confidence in the forecast is different

for each weather event. Understanding forecast confidence can improve

decision making.

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

COMMUNICATING CONFIDENCE

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

Bring the advantage of big data straight to the forecast

The amount of aviation data available today is staggering. Use big data

analytics to predict airport operations

up to 12 hours out. Today provide Airport Runway Configuration,

Congestion, and Taxi Time Prediction.

PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS

HOW WE COLLABORATE

• Airlines– Airline ATC– Management– Dispatchers– Airport Operations

• Other Stakeholders– NWS Chat– Share forecasts – PERTI Telcons– Through Airline

Goal is to create a common situational awareness

Weather

Service FAA

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

BENEFITS OF COLLABORATION

• Two heads are better than one

• PERTI Briefing puts all stakeholders on the same page

• Allows airline to advocate for what they want

– arrival/departure rates

– TFMIs

• FAA understands/expects these requests based on the forecast

• Impacts to weather are understood along with confidence, plans can be made

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

FUTURE…

• Probabilistic Forecast Platform provides objective confidence

• How likely an outcome across specific thresholds of importance

• Provides a way to combine this with other information

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

PFP - Confidence on the Forecast Timing and Magnitude

Current Forecast With Probabilistic Weather Forecast

VFRIFR

High confidence

for airport being

under IFR

Low confidence

for airport being

under IFR

VFRIFR

VFRIFR

©2018 The Weather Company an IBM Business Confidential

Probability Forecasts

Airport Delay Model

Optimized Fuel Loading

Model

Ceiling, Vis, TRW and

Wind Probs

Flight Time Probabilities

Reduced Fuel

Costs!

Example:

Probability Forecasting

System

Analytical Outcome

Model

Optimal Decision

ModelForecasted

Probabilities

Business Outcome

Probabilities

Better

Decisions!

Paradigm:

©2017 The Weather Company Aviation Conference Confidential

Non-Weather Data Business Information

Airport Opers;Flight Sched.

Airport Opers;Delay Costs

HOW PROBABILITY FORECASTS IMPROVE DECISIONS

CONCLUSIONS

• Collaboration provides common situational awareness for better planning in the face of weather events.

• Confidence improves decision makingaround weather.

• Communication is a two-way street, need to provide education to meteorologists on specific limitations.

• Science is moving toward providing forecast confidence and predicting direct impacts.

MERCI!