14 OCT – 18 OCT 2013

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

MAJOR EVENTS Rupee gains against dollar, rising equities caused Gold futures at India's Multi

Commodity Exchange to fall close to !% at 28590 per 10 grams in afternoon trade on

Friday while US gold futures fell below $1300 and remained at those levels as a short

term solution to increase debt limits looks likely to be acceptable to Congressional

Republicans in USA.

On Friday morning, USD/INR slipped by 0.50% and touched an intra-day low of 61.24.

With INR likely to remain strong for today's session, Gold prices could come under

pressure.

MCX Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.93% to 28590 and couldn't overcome

the opening price of Rs 28794 as against previous close of Rs 28857 per 10 grams.US

Gold futures for December delivery fell close to 1% at $1284 an ounce at electronic

trading at Comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange.

The World Gold Council expects Indian gold demand to rise to 300 tons in the last

quarter of 2013 on festival demand that could take total demand to 1000 tons.

US WTI Crude Oil futures rose to a high of $103.57 per barrel before settling on

Thursday at $103.01/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts said that the

congressional Republicans offer to temporarily raise US debt ceiling provided the

White House discusses way out of a fiscal impasse that has closed the government

and unrest in Libya cause by the abduction of Prime Minister by Ali Zeidan and likely

tightening of Oil supplies had impacted market sentiments.

On Wednesday, WTI crude oil has settled at $101.61, the lowest since July 3. Brent

for November settlement climbed $2.74, or 2.5 percent, to $111.78 a barrel on the

London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 44

percent above the 100-day average. The North Sea crude’s premium over WTI ended

the day at $8.77, the most since June 6. The unexpected gains in Crude Oil were to an

extent likely to be neutralised by rising US crude oil inventories. According to Energy

Information Administration (EIA), US oil inventories rose by 6.8 mn barrels in the

week ended October, higher than expected increase of 1.5 mn barrels. Total U.S.

crude oil inventories stood at 370.5 million barrels as of last week.

Crude Oil rebound

may sustain on

Libyan unrest, US

debt impasse to

hurt.

India Copper

futures weak on

sluggish

economic

growth, Rupee

gains.

Copper may be trading positive on London Metal Exchange (LME) and New York

Mercantile Exchange, however, India copper futures at Multi Commodity Exchange

(MCX) remains bearish on account of gains in Indian Rupee and weak growth

prospects for the Indian economy.

The Economic Outlook Survey by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and

Industry (FICCI) pointed out that GDP growth is likely to fall to 5% from an earlier

forecast of 6%. It may be recalled that Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council

(PMEAC) had revised downwards India's GDP growth forecast to 5.3% for 2013-14.

Meanwhile, LME Copper prices rose on expected positive China trade data and effort

by US politicians to avoid a debt default. Chaina imports may have risen 7% in

September on a year-on-year basis. The copper market continues to discount the

ongoing pattern of daily LME copper stock declines, even though stock levels have

declined by nearly 24% from their recent peak. Copper has also seen rising open

interest and rising volumes in the face of a noted recent decline in prices. From a

technical perspective, many traders feel that might give additional credence to the

recent slide in prices.

Bears take grip of

India Gold

futures, US Gold

falls on optimism

in debt issue.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Oct 13, Day 3 IMF Meetings

Oct 14, All Day Bank Holiday

Oct 15, 6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 8.2 6.3

7:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Oct 16, 7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 58 58

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 6.8M

11:30pm Beige Book

Oct 17, 3:00am FOMC Member George Speaks

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 357K 374K

7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 15.4 22.3

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 90B

10:15pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks

10:15pm FOMC Member George Speaks

Oct 18, 7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.7% 0.7%

10:00pm FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

11:30pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks

Oct 19, 1:10am FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28000 27000 25975 29015 29960 30850

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

46500 44925 42820 48580 50780 53150

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed

some correction towards the level of

29750 in starting of the week but could

not hold on higher levels and dragged

down to breach 61.8% retracement

and closed below it. Now, if it sustains

below 28740 then major support is

seen around 27350. On other hand if

some correction is seen then 28750

will act as crucial resistance closing

above which can lead to higher side.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

on highs for the target of 27350 with

stop loss of 29500.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER last week found stiff

resistance around psychological level of

50000 and rebounded towards deeper

support of 46700 and close around it

indicating further bearishness. Now, if it

sustain below 46700 then next support

level is seen around the trendline which

will act as strong support i.e. 45000-

44500.On higher side some correction

may lead it towards the resistance level

of 48050-49250.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 46500 for

target of 45000, with stop loss of 48500.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6150 5925 5650 6370 6600 6875

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

437.50 425 413.70 450.50 465.10 480

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper on daily charts has been

moving in downward channel pattern

and reversed from the upper band last

week. In support of Comex Copper

weakness, it breached the 61.8%

retracement level of 447 and closed

below it. Strong support is seen near

trend line around 438 below which

bear trend will continue. Closing

above 451 and holding above it can

only indicate some strength.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

below 6150 for the target of 5860 with stop

loss of 6480.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

Crude oil last week showed sideways

to bearish movements and closed

below 50% retracement and also

moved in channel pattern on daily

charts. Now, if it sustains below 6225

then it may test the psychological level

of 6000. On higher side 6480 will act as

important resistance above which

break out of channel pattern on higher

side is exepected.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 437, with stop loss of 451 for the

target of 425.

PIVOT TABLE

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

DISCLAIMER