COMMODITY-WEEKLY-TECHNICAL-REPORT-BY-TRIFID RESEARCH.pdf

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    28 OCT 01 NOV 2013

    W E E K L Y

    R

    EP

    O

    R

    T

    Blow by BlowOn

    Bullions,

    Base metals,

    Energy

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    AJOR EVENTSver continues to be a worst performer among precious metals in 2013 after having

    len sharply by 31% in Q2 but partly offset by 11% gains in Q3, 2013. Silver has

    enefitted from the rise in gold prices and mixed trend in industrial.

    ver prices which fell 29% till Q3 will continue to face challenges but will be

    creasingly determined by movement of gold prices. Restrictions on gold imports will

    ntinue to positively impact gold. Silver has a correlation of 0.98 with gold and 0.94

    th base metals. The major challenges for silver comes from increased production in

    cent years and rising scrap supply which will keep the overall market oversupplied.me suggest that if silver prices remain below $20, it is highly likely that more

    imary silver miners will be forced to put their high cost mines on care and

    aintenance until prices recover. Bearishness in gold prices could also hurt silver

    though sharp correction in silver prices could boost its demand. As per early market

    timates, global fabrication demand for silver will remain stable as global economy

    proves slowly. Mine production is likely to grow further as price remains well above

    storical levels and as higher production of base metals may increase by-product

    utput.

    s bear party in Oil complex but doubtful analysts are quite neutral on this volatile

    d complex commodity that is much in demand worldwide.

    ne major reason for the bearish trend that pushed WTI crude Oil futures December

    ntract to $96.16 low was the surge in oil inventories in USA. The Energy

    formation Administration (EIA) had reported crude stock piles rose 5.2 mnb barrels

    r the week ended October 18. MCX crude oil futures for November delivery was

    en trading down by 0.10% at Rs. 6020 per barrel as of 11:20 PM IST on Thursday.

    R also appreciated by 0.35% against USD this morning which also affect crude

    ices in negative way.

    eanwhile WTI Crude Oil has advanced to 97.47 after hitting a low of $96.16 as the

    test HSBC China PMI data showed manufacturing index rose to 50.9 in October.

    hina is the second biggest oil consumer. China will account for about 11 percent of

    obal oil demand this year, compared with 21 percent for the U.S., according to

    recasts from the International Energy Agency.

    Bear dance on

    plentiful Crude O

    stocks, China

    growth spoils thplay.

    World refined

    Copper

    production to

    rise 3.9% in 201

    orld refined copper production in 2013 is expected to increase by 3.9% compared to

    12 as constrained production from maintenance and temporary operational

    utdowns in some regions is overshadowed by expanded output in other regions,

    cording to International Copper Study Group (ICSG).

    2014, refined copper production is expected to grow by around 5.5% to 22.1 Mt

    th the restoration of production at existing plants and new and expanded capacity

    electrolytic plants in China, and to a lesser extent SX-EW plants in Africa. Primary

    fined copper production is expected to grow by about 7% and secondary production

    2%.

    SG expects world apparent refined demand in 2013 to remain unchanged from that

    2012 (20.5 Mt). Although real demand for copper in China is expected to increase by

    out 6% in 2013, apparent demand in China (that is uncorrected for unreported stock

    anges) is expected to decrease in 2013 as a result of much lower refined imports.

    age in the rest of the world is expected to increase by around 1%. With better

    ospects for the world economy in 2014, world usage is expected to grow by around

    5% in 2014 with world-ex-China expected to grow by 2.5%.

    Gold to be a ke

    influence on

    Silver market

    ahead.

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    E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

    DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

    Oct 28, 6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 78.1% 77.8%

    6:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 0.4%

    7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 0.5% -1.6%

    Oct 29, 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.1%

    6:00pmPPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%

    6:00pmRetail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.2%

    6:00pmCore PPI m/m 0.1% 0.0%

    6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 12.4% 12.4%

    7:30pmCB Consumer Confidence 76.0 79.7

    7:30pmBusiness Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.4%

    Oct 30, 5:45pmADP Non-Farm Employment Change 151K 166K

    6:00pmCore CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%

    6:00pm CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%

    8:00pmCrude Oil Inventories 5.2M

    11:30pm FOMC Statement

    11:30pmFederal Funds Rate

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    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2

    29950 29080 28025 31160 31967 3

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2

    48250 46700 44925 50350 52350 5

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed

    bullish movement and also gave

    breakout of channel pattern and able

    to hold above 50% retracement andfound strong resistance of 30850. Now,

    if this bull trend continues then 30850-

    31160 will act as immediate resistance

    above which 32000 act as strong

    resistance. If some correction occurs

    then 29950 will act as major support

    level.

    S T R A T E G Y

    Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

    above 30850 for the target of 31950

    with stop loss of 29890.

    PIVOT TABLE

    G O L D

    PIVOT TABLE

    S I L V E R

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX SILVER last week showed bullish

    movement and able to maintain above

    50% retracement and also gave

    breakout of downward channel pattern.

    Now, if it sustains above 50350 then

    next resistance will seen around 38.2%

    retracement i.e. 51800.If it breaches the

    level of 49150 then upper band ofchannel pattern may act as support for

    it i.e. around the level of 47500.

    S T R A T E G Y

    Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

    point of time is to buy above 50500 for

    target of 52300, with stop loss of 48200.

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    C R U D E O I L

    C O P P E R

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2

    5935 5750 5570 6090 6235 6

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2

    440 432 420 453 460

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Copper on daily charts has been

    moving in downward channel pattern

    and reversed from the upper band last

    week. In support of COMEX Copper

    weakness, it breached the 61.8%

    retracement level of 447 and closed

    around it. Strong support is seen near

    trend line i.e. around 440 below which

    bear trend will continue. Closing

    above 460 and holding above it will

    ndicate breakout of downward

    channel pattern.

    S T R A T E G Y

    Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buyabove 6120 for the target of 6300 with stop

    loss of 5935.

    PIVOT TABLE

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    Crude oil had been running through

    bloodbath since last consecutive eight

    weeks surpassing all its deeper support

    level. It has been hovering aroundupper band of channel pattern, now if

    it holds above 6100 then break out of

    channel pattern will be expected. On

    other hand if this bearishness

    continues then 5935 will act as major

    support for it.

    S T R A T E G Y

    Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

    below 440, with stop loss of 455 for the

    target of 430.

    PIVOT TABLE

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