Commodity weekly-technical-report-25-to-29-november-by-trifidresearch

of 6 /6
25 NOV 29 NOV 2013 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

description

 

Transcript of Commodity weekly-technical-report-25-to-29-november-by-trifidresearch

Page 1: Commodity weekly-technical-report-25-to-29-november-by-trifidresearch

25 NOV – 29 NOV 2013

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Commodity weekly-technical-report-25-to-29-november-by-trifidresearch

MAJOR EVENTS India's gems and jewellery trade has called for restoration of credit facility (SBLC -Gold

loan) for jewellery manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers in order to ensure growth

in exports. The present stipulation that twenty percent of the imported gold has to be

exported could also act as a restraint on import of gold, according to All India Gems

and Jewellery Trade Federation.

Gold smuggling has increased sharply across the country on import duty hike and

restrictions on import. This will ruin the economy while many entrepreneurs who had

spent money to set up jewellery manufacturing facility are in dire straits that will

result in economic loss and unemployment.

The absence of sufficient customs bonded ware houses in the country is also making it

difficult for manufacturers to get gold, resulting high premiums have rendered

artisans jobless despite the wedding season which provides peak business for the

trade. Jewellery business has reported sharp fall in sales of coins and bars in the

festival season of 2013.

Crude oil futures slipped lower during early European trading hours on Friday, but

remained within close ranged of a three-week high following the release of positive

U.S. economic reports on Thursday, while talks with Iran continued. On the New York

Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at

USD95.18 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.28%. The January contract

settled up 1.69% at USD95.44 a barrel on Thursday. Oil futures were likely to find

support at USD93.47 a barrel, Thursday's low and resistance at USD96.64 a barrel, the

high from November 1. Oil prices found support on Thursday after preliminary data

showed that U.S. manufacturing activity improved to an eight-month high of 54.3 in

November from a reading of 51.8 in October. A separate report showed that the

number of people filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 21,000 to a

seasonally adjusted 323,000, beating expectations for a decline of 9,000. However,

data also showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region expanded at

the slowest pace in six months in November. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange,

Brent oil futures for January delivery fell 0.26% to trade at USD109.79 a barrel, with

the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD14.61 a barrel.

Crude oil futures

slip lower, but

remain near 3-

week highs.

Copper futures

edge higher

before U.S.

jobless claims

data.

Copper futures inched higher on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S.

economic data due later in the session to gauge the strength of the economy and the

need for further stimulus. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile

Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.170 a pound during

European morning trade, up 0.35%. Comex copper prices traded in a range between

USD3.143 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.171 a pound. The

December contract settled 0.06% higher on Wednesday to end at USD3.159 a pound.

U.S. was release data on producer price inflation, as well as the weekly report on initial

jobless claims and data manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed later in the day.

Market players have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if

they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to scale back stimulus. Minutes

from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting published Wednesday triggered fresh

concerns that the central bank could begin to slow its bond-purchasing program as

soon as December. According to the minutes, policymakers said they could start

scaling back the USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming

months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.

India Jewellery

trade calls for

restoration of

credit facility to

rescue industry,

boost export.

Page 3: Commodity weekly-technical-report-25-to-29-november-by-trifidresearch

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Nov 25 8:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 2.2% -5.6%

Nov 26 7:00pm Building Permits 0.94M

7:00pm Housing Starts 0.92M

Sep Data Building Permits 0.94M 0.93M

Sep Data Housing Starts 0.91M 0.89M

7:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 13.0% 12.8%

7:30pm HPI m/m 0.5% 0.3%

8:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 72.2 71.2

8:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 3 1

Nov 27 7:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% -0.2%

7:00pm Unemployment Claims 331K 323K

7:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m -1.5% 3.8%

8:15pm Chicago PMI 60.6 65.9

8:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 73.1 72.0

8:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%

8:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.1% 0.7%

9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M

10:30pm Natural Gas Storage -45B

Nov 28 All Day Bank Holiday

Page 4: Commodity weekly-technical-report-25-to-29-november-by-trifidresearch

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

29550 28750 28000 30500 31165 32000

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

44240 42680 40660 45850 47560 49160

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed

sideways to bearish movement due to

comex weakness and closed around

the upper band of triangle pattern. If it

able to break 30500 then breakout of

triangle pattern on higher side is

expected and it may find resistance

around 31150. On other hand if it

maintains on lower level then 29550

will act as major support.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 29500 for the targets of 28850-

28400 with stop loss of 30500.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER last week showed bearish

movement, took reversal from trendline

acting as resistance, broke major

support of 45950 and closed below it.

Now, if this bear trend continues then it

may find support around 42850 below

which it may drag towards next support

of 40500. Closing above 45950 may

show some correction towards

resistance level of 47000-47700.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell on highs for target

of 43000, with stop loss of 46850.

Page 5: Commodity weekly-technical-report-25-to-29-november-by-trifidresearch

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

5840 5650 5450 6065 6310 6510

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

436.70 426.85 417.40 450.35 460.15 471.50

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper moved in downward

channel pattern found support near

lower band and closed above its

resistance of 440. Now, if it sustain

above 440 then it may find resistance

around upper band i.e. 455 closing

above it indicates breakout of channel

pattern and find strong resistance

around 460. Below 435 again it may

drag towards lower band around 425.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

on highs for the targets of 5750-5600 with

stop loss of 6650.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

Crude oil on its daily chart broke 61.8%

retracement but unable to sustain

below it and showed correction

towards its resistance level of 6110.

Now, if it able to break resistance of

6110 then it may find next resistance

around 50% retracement i.e. 6225. On

lower level 5900 is act as support for it

below which next support is seen

around 5760.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 447, with stop loss of 435 for the

target of 459.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Commodity weekly-technical-report-25-to-29-november-by-trifidresearch

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

DISCLAIMER