Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013

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11 NOV 15 NOV 2013 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Transcript of Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013

Page 1: Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013

11 NOV – 15 NOV 2013

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013

MAJOR EVENTS

US gold futures declined further on Friday evening after US non-farm pay rolls

recorded an upside movement. The yellow metal fell below $1330 per troy ounce

again on Friday after declining below $1300. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose

by 204,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent.

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the unemployment

rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in October. Now traders may eye on China. China is

scheduled to declare its inflation and industrial output index on Saturday. Also,

Chinese Communist Party leaders are expected meet for four days starting November

9 to discuss policies.

A positive US non-farm pay rolls, firm US GDP data released on Thursday have sparked

concerns that US Central Bank may start tapering its commodities friendly monetary

stimulus soon. The concerns were seen pulling down the yellow metal in the global

market. Meanwhile, Chinese exports increased higher than projected in October while

import gains accelerated. Exports rose 5.6% in October year-on-year basis. Imports

rose 7.6%, leaving a trade excess of $31.1 billion, the highest in 2013.

US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.6 mn barrels during the week

ending November 1, 2013 from the previous week. At 385.4 mn barrels, US crude oil

inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.8 mn barrels last week and are in the

upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while

blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories

decreased by 4.9 mn barrels last week and are at the lower limit of the average range

for this time of year.

Meanwhile, North American shale oil revolution is expected to limit the prospect for

further rise in Brent crude oil prices. “We expect the balance for light sweet barrels in

the Atlantic Basin to gradually shift into surplus towards the end of the year, setting

Brent up for a lower trading range in 1Q14”. The expanding US shale oil production is

freeing up more barrels overseas.

US Crude Oil skids

despite firm

Gasoline demand,

MCX Crude Oil

recover.

Recovery in

manufacturing,

firm demand may

support China

Copper refilling.

China has gone into copper refilling mode since May and there is potential for further

restocking, if the country targets its previous copper stock levels. The base metal

demand growth has been healthy supported by the power sector. “We believe that

tight scrap availability earlier this year has been offset by record levels of concentrate

imports and Chinese refined copper production reaching fresh all time highs.

Meanwhile, copper financing was seen playing an important role in driving demand for

the base metal.

China’s October import data showed a decline in copper imports. However, imports

are likely to return to their normal stage remaining part of the year amid an upbeat in

manufacturing activity and looser bank policy. China's copper imports declined 11.2

percent in October (month-on-month) due to lower price differentials between

domestic and global copper markets and a week-long holiday. China's official PMI

reported at 51.4, the highest in 18 months, according to the data released by China

Logistics Information Center last week.

US Gold below

$1300 after Non-

Farm Payrolls,

MCX Gold down.

Page 3: Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Nov 11 All Day Bank Holiday

Nov 12 6:00pm NFIB Small Business Index 93.5 93.9

Nov 13 9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 1.6M

11:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.66|2.6

Nov 14 12:30am Federal Budget Balance -104.3B 75.1B

5:30am Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

7:00pm Trade Balance -38.7B -38.8B

7:00pm Unemployment Claims 331K 336K

7:00pm Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.3% 2.3%

7:00pm Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.1% 0.0%

8:30pm Fed Chairperson Designate Yellen Testifies

9:00pm Natural Gas Storage 35B

11:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.76|2.6

Nov 15 7:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.2 1.5

7:00pm Import Prices m/m -0.4% 0.2%

7:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 78.3% 78.3%

7:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.6%

8:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.5%

Page 4: Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

29150 28700 28300 30250 31000 31400

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

47500 46600 45500 49200 50400 51500

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD on its daily charts moved in

triangle pattern and form a lower

consolidation around lower band of

triangle. Now, if it breaks 29550 then it

may find support near 29150 below

which breakout of triangle pattern is

expected and major support is seen

around 28350. On higher side 30300 is

seen as immediate resistance for it,

closing above indicates more bullish

movement and may find resistance

around 30950.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 30275 for the targets of 30950-

31200 with stop loss of 29500.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER last week showed sideways

to bearish movement and consolidates

around trendline on its daily charts.

Now, immediate support for it is seen

around 47700 below which it may drag

towards next support level of 45600. On

other hand if it able to break 49160 on

higher sides then it may find next

resistance around 50400 and it is

expected to test its major resistance of

52300.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 47700 for

target of 45700, with stop loss of 49200.

Page 5: Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

5850 5750 5620 6030 6225 6350

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

445 440 433 460 473 480

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper found vital support of

trend line on its daily chart and took

reversal from it. Now, it is

consolidating around its resistance

level of 460, closing above which may

show bullish movement in it towards

next resistance level of 473. On lower

side, below 445.85 breakout of trend

line is expected and may find next

support in range of 440-437.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy

above 6030 for the targets of 6120-6220

with stop loss of 5850.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

Crude oil broke its 61.8% retracement

but unable to sustain below it and gave

satisfactory closing above this. After

very long bearish sessions on weekly

chart last week it closed in positive.

Now, if it able to maintain above 61.8%

retracement then more correction is

expected in it towards 50%

retracement i.e. 6225. On lower level

5800 is important support for it.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 460, with stop loss of 445 for the

target of 473.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Commodity weekly-technical-report-2013

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