Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

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06 JAN 10 JAN 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Transcript of Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

Page 1: Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

06 JAN – 10 JAN 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

MAJOR EVENTS US gold futures recorded a recovery on Thursday from its worst year in more than

three decades. A steep decline in the yellow metal prices has prompted the bullion

investors to reverse bets. US gold futures for February delivery electronic platform

was seen trading with a gain of $20.3 at $1222.6 per troy ounce as of 09.55 IST on

Thursday. Short holdings in gold rose 1.1% to a three-week high of 76,052 in futures

and options in the week that closed December 24, according to the US Commodity

Futures Trading Commission data. India Gold Futures opened on a positive note and

was seen trading up tracking an upward movement in US gold prices on Thursday.

Gold futures for February delivery on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was seen

trading with a gain of 0.87% at Rs.28665 per 10 grams as of 10.05 IST on Thursday.

A list of US data releases is scheduled for the day and traders may try to gather clues

for their trading from the data released. US Department of Labor is scheduled to

release its weekly data on Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims at 19.00 IST

while US Institute of Supply Management is expected to release its PMI at 20.30 IST

on Thursday.

Crude oil prices saw their biggest drop in nearly 14 months at the NYMEX with oil

prices for most active February expiry closed nearly 3% lower yesterday. A slew of

positive economic numbers from the US were unable to press-in any kind of

optimism into the commodity which was weighed by rise in US Dollar amidst

speculation that the US Fed would continue with its monetary tapering. Additional

pressure seeped-in by the fact that Libya is planning to open one of its key oil fields

over the next two weeks which if happens would nearly double the supply form the

country as compared to current levels. By the end of the trading session on Thursday,

WTI oil was down around $3 per barrel to close at $95.44 a barrel and marking its

biggest single session drop since Nov, 2012. In Libya, oil output still hovers around

250,000 barrels per day (BPD), sharply lower from the near 1.5 BPD during the first

half of 2013 as ports in the eastern part of the country remain shut. Recently, its

National Oil Corp (NOC) said it plans to restart the El Sharara oilfield and hopes to

advance country’s output to near 600,000 BPD after protesters agreed to suspend a

strike that has blocked the field since the end of October.

NYMEX Crude Oil

witnesses biggest

drop in 14

months.

India Copper falls

on profit

booking, weak

cues.

Copper futures for February delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was

seen trading with a loss of 0.62% at Rs.466.80 per kilogram as of 16.25 IST on Friday.

Copper prices in the global market edged lower on Friday amid weak China

manufacturing data and hopes on surplus supply of the base metal. Comex copper for

March delivery on electronic platform was seen trading with a loss of 0.68% at $3.358

per pound as of 16.48 IST on Friday.

China HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing posted at 50.5 in

December, unchanged from the earlier flash reading, and down slightly from 50.8 in

November, according to the data released by the HSBC Markit on Thursday.

Chinese non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 54.6 in December, the

lowest since August and weak from 56 month-on-month basis, according to the data

released by the National Bureau of Statistics and Federation of Logistics & Purchasing

on Friday. Copper tumbled 7.2% in 2013, falling into a bear territory April, on concerns

that global supply would surpass demand and a slowdown in China, world's largest

base metal consumer.

US Gold

rebounds after

its worst year,

MCX Gold opens

up.

Page 3: Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Jan 06 3:30am

Jan 06 7:30pm Final Services PMI 56.0 56.0

8:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.6 53.9

8:30pm Factory Orders m/m 1.8% -0.9%

Jan 07 4:00am Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

7:00pm Trade Balance -40.2B -40.6B

8:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.3 43.1

Jan 08 6:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 199K 215K

9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories

11:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.82/2.6

Jan 09 12:30am FOMC Meeting Minutes

1:30am Consumer Credit m/m 13.6B 18.2B

6:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -20.6%

7:00pm Unemployment Claims 334K 339K

9:00pm Natural Gas Storage

11:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.90/2.4

Jan 10 7:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 194K 203K

7:00pm Unemployment Rate 7.0% 7.0

7:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%

8:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 1.4%

Page 4: Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28690 28080 27400 29650 30110 30680

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

44500 43500 42400 45850 46700 47600

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD last week showed bullish

movement after taking support from

lower band of channel pattern and

closed around upper band. Now if it

able to maintain above 29150 and if

also traded above the upper band of

channel pattern then 29600 will act as

important resistance. On other hand if

it sustain below 29000 then 28700 will

act as major support level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 29250 for the targets of 29600-

30000 with stop loss of 28600.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER last week showed upward

movement, and took bounce back from

lower band of falling wedge pattern &

face resistance of its important level i.e.

45850. Now, if bullish trend continues

and sustain above 45900 then it may

find next resistance around 46600. On

lower side 44500 will act as support for

it below which it may drag towards

important support of 42500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy above 46000 for

targets of 46600-47200, with stop loss of

44500.

Page 5: Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

5860 5710 5570 6020 6170 6350

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

462.45 456 447.70 474.50 482 492

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed

sideways movement and unable to

sustain above 473.50 and took support

of lower band of downward channel

pattern. Now, if it is able to sustain

below 472 then bearishness drag it

towards the support level of 456.50.

On other hand if it maintains above

the resistance range of 475-478 then

bulls may become active.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

on highs for the targets of 5760, with stop

loss of 6110.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

Crude oil on its daily chart showed

bearish movement, not able to sustain

above 23.6% retracement and gave

breakout of upward channel pattern

on lower side and also closed below

the trendline. Now, if it is able to

sustain below the trendline then next

support level is seen around 5750. On

higher side 6110 will act as important

resistance.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 462, with stop loss of 478 for the

target of 450.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

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