Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

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Transcript of Commodity weekly technical report 06 jan to 10 jan

  • 06 JAN 10 JAN 2014

    W E E K L Y







    Blow by Blow



    Base metals,



  • MAJOR EVENTS US gold futures recorded a recovery on Thursday from its worst year in more than

    three decades. A steep decline in the yellow metal prices has prompted the bullion

    investors to reverse bets. US gold futures for February delivery electronic platform

    was seen trading with a gain of $20.3 at $1222.6 per troy ounce as of 09.55 IST on

    Thursday. Short holdings in gold rose 1.1% to a three-week high of 76,052 in futures

    and options in the week that closed December 24, according to the US Commodity

    Futures Trading Commission data. India Gold Futures opened on a positive note and

    was seen trading up tracking an upward movement in US gold prices on Thursday.

    Gold futures for February delivery on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was seen

    trading with a gain of 0.87% at Rs.28665 per 10 grams as of 10.05 IST on Thursday.

    A list of US data releases is scheduled for the day and traders may try to gather clues

    for their trading from the data released. US Department of Labor is scheduled to

    release its weekly data on Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims at 19.00 IST

    while US Institute of Supply Management is expected to release its PMI at 20.30 IST

    on Thursday.

    Crude oil prices saw their biggest drop in nearly 14 months at the NYMEX with oil

    prices for most active February expiry closed nearly 3% lower yesterday. A slew of

    positive economic numbers from the US were unable to press-in any kind of

    optimism into the commodity which was weighed by rise in US Dollar amidst

    speculation that the US Fed would continue with its monetary tapering. Additional

    pressure seeped-in by the fact that Libya is planning to open one of its key oil fields

    over the next two weeks which if happens would nearly double the supply form the

    country as compared to current levels. By the end of the trading session on Thursday,

    WTI oil was down around $3 per barrel to close at $95.44 a barrel and marking its

    biggest single session drop since Nov, 2012. In Libya, oil output still hovers around

    250,000 barrels per day (BPD), sharply lower from the near 1.5 BPD during the first

    half of 2013 as ports in the eastern part of the country remain shut. Recently, its

    National Oil Corp (NOC) said it plans to restart the El Sharara oilfield and hopes to

    advance countrys output to near 600,000 BPD after protesters agreed to suspend a

    strike that has blocked the field since the end of October.

    NYMEX Crude Oil

    witnesses biggest

    drop in 14


    India Copper falls

    on profit

    booking, weak


    Copper futures for February delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was

    seen trading with a loss of 0.62% at Rs.466.80 per kilogram as of 16.25 IST on Friday.

    Copper prices in the global market edged lower on Friday amid weak China

    manufacturing data and hopes on surplus supply of the base metal. Comex copper for

    March delivery on electronic platform was seen trading with a loss of 0.68% at $3.358

    per pound as of 16.48 IST on Friday.

    China HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing posted at 50.5 in

    December, unchanged from the earlier flash reading, and down slightly from 50.8 in

    November, according to the data released by the HSBC Markit on Thursday.

    Chinese non-manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 54.6 in December, the

    lowest since August and weak from 56 month-on-month basis, according to the data

    released by the National Bureau of Statistics and Federation of Logistics & Purchasing

    on Friday. Copper tumbled 7.2% in 2013, falling into a bear territory April, on concerns

    that global supply would surpass demand and a slowdown in China, world's largest

    base metal consumer.

    US Gold

    rebounds after

    its worst year,

    MCX Gold opens


  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R


    Jan 06 3:30am

    Jan 06 7:30pm Final Services PMI 56.0 56.0

    8:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.6 53.9

    8:30pm Factory Orders m/m 1.8% -0.9%

    Jan 07 4:00am Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

    7:00pm Trade Balance -40.2B -40.6B

    8:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.3 43.1

    Jan 08 6:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 199K 215K

    9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories

    11:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.82/2.6

    Jan 09 12:30am FOMC Meeting Minutes

    1:30am Consumer Credit m/m 13.6B 18.2B

    6:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -20.6%

    7:00pm Unemployment Claims 334K 339K

    9:00pm Natural Gas Storage

    11:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.90/2.4

    Jan 10 7:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 194K 203K

    7:00pm Unemployment Rate 7.0% 7.0

    7:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%

    8:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 1.4%

  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    28690 28080 27400 29650 30110 30680

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    44500 43500 42400 45850 46700 47600

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX GOLD last week showed bullish

    movement after taking support from

    lower band of channel pattern and

    closed around upper band. Now if it

    able to maintain above 29150 and if

    also traded above the upper band of

    channel pattern then 29600 will act as

    important resistance. On other hand if

    it sustain below 29000 then 28700 will

    act as major support level.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

    above 29250 for the targets of 29600-

    30000 with stop loss of 28600.


    G O L D


    S I L V E R

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX SILVER last week showed upward

    movement, and took bounce back from

    lower band of falling wedge pattern &

    face resistance of its important level i.e.

    45850. Now, if bullish trend continues

    and sustain above 45900 then it may

    find next resistance around 46600. On

    lower side 44500 will act as support for

    it below which it may drag towards

    important support of 42500.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

    point of time is to buy above 46000 for

    targets of 46600-47200, with stop loss of


  • C R U D E O I L

    C O P P E R

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    5860 5710 5570 6020 6170 6350

    S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

    462.45 456 447.70 474.50 482 492

    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    MCX Copper last week showed

    sideways movement and unable to

    sustain above 473.50 and took support

    of lower band of downward channel

    pattern. Now, if it is able to sustain

    below 472 then bearishness drag it

    towards the support level of 456.50.

    On other hand if it maintains above

    the resistance range of 475-478 then

    bulls may become active.

    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

    on highs for the targets of 5760, with stop

    loss of 6110.


    T E C H N I C A L V I E W

    Crude oil on its daily chart showed

    bearish movement, not able to sustain

    above 23.6% retracement and gave

    breakout of upward channel pattern

    on lower side and also closed below

    the trendline. Now, if it is able to

    sustain below the trendline then next

    support level is seen around 5750. On

    higher side 6110 will act as important


    S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

    below 462, with stop loss of 478 for the

    target of 450.