Commodity weekly report 31 4 aug 2017

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Trade House 426 Alok Nagar, Kanadia Main Road Near Bangali Square Indore-452001 (M.P.) India Mobile :+91-9039261444 E-mail: [email protected] Telephone :+91-731-698.3000 31 JULY TO 4 AUG. 2017 Monday-Friday COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT

Transcript of Commodity weekly report 31 4 aug 2017

Page 1: Commodity weekly report  31  4 aug 2017

31 JULY to 4 AUG

Trade House 426 Alok Nagar, Kanadia Main Road Near Bangali Square

Indore-452001 (M.P.) India Mobile :+91-9039261444

E-mail: [email protected] Telephone :+91-731-698.3000

31 JULY TO 4 AUG. 2017

Monday-Friday

COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT

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COMMODITIES PREVIOUS WEEK

MCX 21-7-2017

CLOSING PRICE

28-7-2017

CLOSING PRICE

VALUE

CHANGED % CHANGED

GOLD (AUG) 28548 28590 42 0.15%

SILVER (SEP) 38153 38430 277 0.73%

CRUDE OIL (AUG) 2960 3188 228 7.70%

NATURAL GAS (JUL) 193.40 189.50 -3.9 -2.02%

COPPER (AUG) 389.10 408.70 19.6 5.04%

NICKEL (JUL.) 613.50 656.20 42.7 6.96%

LEAD (JUL.) 143.25 148.05 4.8 3.35%

ZINC (JUL.) 177.45 178.20 0.75 0.42%

ALUMINIUM (JUL.) 122.50 121.20 -1.3 -1.06%

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Gold prices traded higher last week, as the dollar remained under pressure at fourteen-month lows, after inves-

tor expectations grew the Federal Reserve would keep rates low for longer, following data showing inflation remained subdued. Gold fu-

tures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $9.53, or 0.75%, to $1,269.52 a troy ounce.

Gold recouped some of its losses sustained earlier during the week, as traders mulled over a downward revision in first-quarter gross do-

mestic product (GDP) which offset second-quarter gross domestic product that met expectations.

TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Gold last week was in sideways movement and closed in positive note. For upcoming week if its price manages

above its major resistance level of 29000 then it can give well up side movement and test its next resistance level of 29400. On downward

side it is taking support of 23.6% retracement level which is near to its crucial support level of 28500. If its price sustain below this level

then it may change its direction and drag down towards next support level of 28000.

GOLD (OCT)

WEEKLY

R3 29100

R2 28800

R1 28700

Pivot 28500

S1 28400

S2 28200

S3 27880

WEEKLY

OPEN 28563

HIGH 28610

LOW 28304

CLOSE 28590

CHANGE 42

%

CHANGE 0.15%

GOLD (OCT LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY ABOVE 28850 29050 29300 28600

SELL BELOW 28700 28500 28250 28950

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Silver Futures has been relatively volatile over the past few weeks, but despite the recent pullback from the high

at $17., it could be getting set to rally again. The precious metal is currently trading at $16.8 around, relatively close to key support. Any

further downside moves would need to surpass this level but downside risks are easing. The daily chart shows a relatively clear short

term, rising trend line, implying support in the coming days. The RSI Oscillator is also near oversold levels.

TECHNICAL VIEW:- .MCX Silver last week showed sideways to uptrend but not able to break its important resistance level of 39000. If its

price holds above this level then we can expect trend reversal and its price can go towards next resistance level of 40000. On other side it

is taking support of its trend line which is near to its 37900 support level. If its price breaches it and sustain below this level then it may

drag down towards next support level of 37000.

WEEKLY

R3 38680

R2 38680

R1 38530

Pivot 38600

S1 38480

S2 38550

S3 36500

WEEKLY

OPEN 38150

HIGH 38699

LOW 38652

CLOSE 38430

CHANGE 277

%

CHANGE 0.73%

SILVER(SEP.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY ON DIPS 37900 38600 39400 37000

SELL ON RISE 38700 38000 37200 39600

SILVER (SEP)

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Crude futures settled higher last week, as data this week eased concerns about surplus supplies, after Saudi

Arabia pledged to lower exports while U.S. crude supplies fell more than expected. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for

September delivery rose 67 cents to settle at $49.71 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent added $1.02 to trade at

$52.51 a barrel.

TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Crude oil last week was in strong up trend after breaking its major resistance level of 3100 and close near to its

weekly high level which indicate further upward movement, it has important resistance level of 3200, and if its price manages above this

level then it may test next resistance level of 3400. On down ward side it has major support level of 3070, if its price sustain below this lev-

el then we can expect trend reversal and its price drag down towards next support level of 2890.

CRUDE (AUG.)

WEEKLY

R3 3630

R2 3370

R1 3280

Pivot 3105

S1 3015

S2 2845

S3 2580

WEEKLY

OPEN 2965

HIGH 3200

LOW 2936

CLOSE 3188

CHANGE 228

%

CHANGE 7.70%

CRUDE (AUG.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY ON DIPS 3000 3100 3200 2870

SELL ON RISE 3200 3100 30000 3331

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Copper prices surge to the highest in two years following reports that China could move to ban imports of scrap

metal by the end of next year, which likely would boost demand for refined metals in the world’s top importer. LME copper prices hit

$6,400/metric ton overnight, the highest since May 2015, and have soared ~5% in two days.

TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Copper last week has given good break out of its long consolidation phase and gave strongly up side movement

and tested its next resistance level of 415, but not able to break it. For upcoming week its uptrend may be continue if its price manages

above 415 level then it may move further towards its next resistance 425. On down ward side it has major psychological support level of

400 if its price sustain below then it can move towards next support level of 390.

COPPER (AUG)

WEEKLY

R3 456

R2 430

R1 420

Pivot 403

S1 392

S2 376

S3 350

WEEKLY

OPEN 389.15

HIGH 414.25

LOW 387.65

CLOSE 408.70

CHANGE 19.6

%

CHANGE 5.04%

COPPER (AUG) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY ABOVE 390 400 410 377

SELL ON RISE 413 403 393 425

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- U.S. natural gas futures rose to the highest levels of the session in North American trade last week, after data

showed that domestic supplies in storage rose less than anticipated last week. U.S. natural gas for September delivery was at $2.963 per

million British thermal units by 10:35AM ET (1435MT), up 5.2 cents, or around 1.8%. Futures were at around $2.937 prior to the release of

the supply data. Prices ended lower for the fifth time in six last week and mid bearish weather forecasts that should limit demand for the

fuel.

TECHNICAL VIEW:-.This week Natural gas will be in down trend, as in last week it was closed around 189.50 and this week it was opened

at 189.10 This is the main reason it was down around 173 , and hence we can see it upwards. However, if it gives the break out level of 193

we can sell it for downside till 182 if it gives the break out to more downward level 173

NATURAL GAS (AUG)

WEEKLY

R3 202

R2 195

R1 192

Pivot 189

S1 186

S2 183

S3 176

WEEKLY

OPEN 192.50

HIGH 192.50

LOW 186.20

CLOSE 189.50

CHANGE -3.9

%

CHANGE -2.02%

N.GAS(AUG.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY ON DIPS 193 201 209 180

SELL BELOW 182 174 166 193

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STATUS OF OUR LAST WEEKLY RECOMMENDATIONS

RECOMMENDATIONS PROFIT/LOSS STATUS

BUY GOLD ON DIPS 28150 TGT-28350-28550 SL BELOW 27900 0 NOT EXECUTED

SELL GOLD ON RISE 28900 TGT-28700-28500 SL ABOVE-29150 0 NOT EXECUTED

BUY SILVER ON DIPS 37500 TGT-38200-39000 SL BELOW-36700 0 NOT EXECUTED

SELL ON RISE 38200 TGT-37500-36800 SL ABOVE 39000 -6900 CLOSE AT 38430

BUY ON DIPS 2905 TGT-3005-3105 SL BELOW 28000 0 NOT EXECUTED

SELL ON RISE 3000 TGT-2900-2800 SL ABOVE 3150

-1500 SL TRIGGERED

BUY ON DIPS 173 TGT-181-189 SL BELOW 160 0 NOT EXECUTED

SELL ON RISE 201 TGT-193-185 SL ABOVE 213

10000 SL TRIGGERED

BUY COPPER ABOVE 392 TGT-402-412 SL BELOW 377 0 2ND TGT

SELL COPPER ON RISE 390 TGT-380-370 SL ABOVE-405

-15000 SL TRIGGERED

P&L

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ECONOMIC CALENDER

Time Event Forecast Previous

Monday, July 31, 2017

19:30 Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) 1.00% -0.80%

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

19:30 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 56.5 57.8

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

17:45 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) 188K 158K

20:00 Crude Oil Imports -0.254M

20:00 Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.699M

20:00 Crude Oil Inventories -7.208M

Thursday, August 3, 2017

18:00 Continuing Jobless Claims 1,958K 1,964K

18:00 Initial Jobless Claims 242K 244K

19:30 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 57 57.4

20:00 Natural Gas Storage 17B

Friday, August 4, 2017

18:00 Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 183K 222K

18:00 Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.30% 4.40%

18:00 Government Payrolls (Jul) 35.0K

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