Commodity weekly report 30 jan to 3-feb 2017

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COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT 9 TO 13 JAN. 2017 COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT 30 Jan-03 Feb. 2017

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:-Gold edges a tad higher in U.S. trade as Fed eyed :-Gold ended little changed

in last week, after weaker-than-expected figures on U.S. fourth quarter growth dampened expectations for a

faster rate of interest rate hikes this year. The precious metal was 1.35% lower for the week, as the stronger

U.S. dollar weighed. The annual rate of economic growth slowed to 1.9% in the three months to December

the Commerce Department reported Friday, slowing sharply from the 3.5% rate of growth seen in the third

quarter.

TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Gold last week gave some profit booking after strong bullish trend. On up-

coming week its corrective rally may be continue because it has given good trend line break out and sto-

chastic is in overbought zone. It has 27900 as major support level if it breaks this level the next support lev-

el may be 27500. On other side it has 28500 is important resistance if it manage above this resistance level

then it can test another resistance level of 29000.

TRADING STRATEGY:-

WEEKLY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE :-

SYMBOL TREND R3 R2 R1 PV S1 S2 S3

GOLD BULLISH 29970 29200 28780 28430 28000 27660 26890

GOLD (FEB) MCX DAILY CHART

Gold Weekly Wrap Up

OPEN 28650

HIGH 28857

LOW 28085

CLOSE 28353

% CHANGE -0.94%

NET CHANGE -270

OI 4669

% OI +46

VOLUM 31999

TREND Negative

GOLD(FEB) STRATEGY LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY RESISTANCE BREAK OUT 28500 28700 29000 28250

SELL SUPPORT BREAK OUT 28300 28100 27850 28550


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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:-The Silver Lining of the ‘Violent, Stunning, Historic Collapse :-This is

President Trump’s first week in office and a huge week for the stock market. On Dec. 23, 2016, under tre-

mendous public pressure, the Chinese government announced that by July 1, 2020, all vehicles in the Chi-

nese market will have to comply to the tough China VI/China 6 standard, basically equivalent to the cur-

rent U.S. and E.U. standards. It was barely noticed in the West because of the Christmas holiday. But it

was a big one in China, especially in the Chinese social media. I could hear the cheers of Chinese citizens all

the way in the U.S.!

TECHNICAL VIEW:-MCX Silver last week was in sideways to bearish movement. It is taking support of

23.6% retracement level and bounce back. Now on upcoming week it may break its support level of 40000.

If it is break this support its price may be drag towards next support level of 39000. On the upward side

41500 is good resistance and near to its 38.2% retracement level.

TRADING STRATEGY:-



SILVER BEARISH 44200 42750 42100 41280 40650 39800 38350

SILVER (MAR) MCX DAILY CHART

Silver Weekly Wrap Up

OPEN 41241

HIGH 41929

LOW 40470

CLOSE 41465

% CHANGE -0.37%

NET -108

OI 13275

% OI +192

VOLUM 69605

TREND Negative

SILVER(MAR) STRATEGY LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY BUY ON DIPS 40000-40100 40800 41500 39200

SELL SELL ON RISE 41400 40800 4000 42200


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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:-

Crude falls in Asia as US travel ban on Muslim-majority countries noted :-Crude oil prices opened

weaker in Asia on Monday as investors noted sharp reaction to President Donald Trump's move to bar

travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries from entering the U.S. with markets in China, South Korea,

Hong Kong and Singapore shut to mark the Lunar New Year.

TECHNICAL VIEW:-

MCX Crude was in sideways to bullish movement. Now in upcoming trading session it may break its im-

portant resistance level of 3720, If its price manages above this level it may go towards next resistance level

of 3850.On downward side it has 3600 is good support level, if it sustain below this level its price may be

drag towards next support level of 3470.

TRADING STRATEGY:-



CRUDE OIL BULLISH 3870 3750 3680 3625 3555 3505 3385

CRUDE OIL MCX (FEB) ON DAILY CHART

Crude oil Weekly Wrap Up

OPEN 3625

HIGH 3696

LOW 3575

CLOSE 3608

% CHANGE -0.90%

NET CHANGE

-33

OI 8745

% OI -0.57

VOLUM 572875

TREND Positive

CRUDE OIL(JAN) STRATEGY LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY BUY ON DIPS 3500-3480 3600 3700 3330

SELL SELL ON RISE 3820-3850 3730 3630 3960


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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- U.S. natural gas surges 4% after bullish storage data :-U.S. natural gas fu-

tures rose for the fourth day in a row on Thursday, hitting a more than one-week high after data showed

that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. fell more than expected last week. It’s around $3.458 prior to

the release of the supply data after climbing to a session high of $3.492 in the immediate aftermath of the

storage report, a level not seen since January 17

TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Natural Gas was in sideways to bullish movement. Now in upcoming trading

session it may break its important resistance level of 230, If its price manages above this level it may go to-

wards next resistance level of 240 .On downward side it has 222 is good support level, if it sustain below this

level its price may be drag towards next support level of 211

TRADING STRATEGY:-

WEEKLY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE:-

NATURAL GAS (FEB) MCX DAILY CHART


NATURAL GAS BEARISH 256 240.50 235 225 219 209 194

N.gas Weekly Wrap Up

OPEN 218.90

HIGH 230.30

LOW 214.80

CLOSE 229.30

% CHANGE 4.03%

NET CHANGE

+8.90

OI 4060

% OI +19

VOLUM 243629

TREND Negative

N.GAS(JAN) STRATEGY LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY RESISTANCE BREAK OUT 230 240 250 217

SELL SUPPORT BREAK OUT 220 210 200 232


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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:-

Copper futures up on China growth hopes, strong US data :- Copper futures rose during evening trade

in the domestic market on Thursday as investors and speculators extended their positions in the industrial

metal on expectations of strong demand in top consumer China along with positive US economic signals.

According to Reuters poll, during the fourth quarter, Chinese economy is expected to grew by a steady 6.7

per cent, the same as in previous three quarters, helped by government spending and record bank lending.

TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX COPPER FEB contract showed upside movement this week and made a

weekly high of 409.45, we see copper prices have a strong support at 400-395 levels. technically copper is

looking very bullish above 406 in coming day with a target price of 413-421.

TRADING STRATEGY:-



COPPER BULLISH 432.50 418 411 403 396 388 373

COPPER (FEB) MCX DAILY CHART

Copper Weekly Wrap Up

OPEN 397.70

HIGH 409.45

LOW 394.75

CLOSE 404.40

% CHANGE +2.3%

NET CHANGE

+9.10

OI 18818

% OI +8.87

VOLUM 177809

TREND Positive

COPPER(FEB) STRATEGY LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS

BUY BUY ON DIPS 395 405 415 380

SELL SELL ON RISE 430-435 420 410 450


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STATUS OF PREVIOUS WEEK RECOMMENDATIONS

23-27 Jan 2017 Product

Name RECOMMENDATIONS Profit

&

Loss

Status

GOLD BUY GOLD ON DIPS 28550 TGT-28750-29000 SL BE-

LOW28250

20,000 1st TGT Achieved

SILVER SELL SILVER ON RISE 41900 TGT 41300-40700-SL BELOW 42700

36,000 Final TGT Achieved

CRUDE

OIL

BUY CRUDEOIL ON DIPS 3560 TGT 3660-3760 SL BELOW

3450

10,000 1st TGT Achieved

NATURAL

GAS

SELL NATURALGAS ON RISE 222 TGT 213-203 SL BELOW

235

-8625 Closed Price

@228.90

COPPER BUY COPPER ON DIPS 391 TGT 401-411 SL BELOW 378

18.000 Final TGT Almost

Achieved

Net P&L +75,375

PREVIOUS MCX MARKET UPDATES MCX 20-01-2017

CLOSING PRICE

27-01-2017

CLOSING PRICE

% CHANGED VALUE

CHANGED

GOLD 28624 28355 -0.94% -270

SILVER 41573 41465 -0.37% -108

CRUDE OIL 3641 3608 -0.90% -33

NATURAL GAS 220.40 229.30 +4.03% +8.90

COPPER 395.30 404.40 +2.30% +9.10

NICKEL 658.70 645 -2.07% -13.70

LEAD 157.15 156.30 -0.54% -0.85

ZINC 187.70 187.45 -0.13% - 0.25

ALUMINIUM 126 124 1.58% -2


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ECONOMIC CALENDAR (16-20 Jan 2017)

TIME CURR. EVENT ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS

Monday, January 30, 2017

20:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) 1.10% -2.50%

20:30 USD Pending Home Sales Index (Dec) 107.3

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

20:15 USD Chicago PMI (Jan) 55 54.6

20:30 USD CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) 112.9 113.7

21:00 USD Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Jan) 20.6

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

18:45 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) 165K 153K

20:15 USD Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 55.1

20:30 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan) 66 65.5

21:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.840M

21:00 USD Crude Oil Imports -0.463M

21:00 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.284M

21:00 USD Distillate Fuel Production -0.138M

21:00 USD EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.076M

21:00 USD Gasoline Production -0.128M

21:00 USD Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.641M

21:00 USD Gasoline Inventories 6.796M

Thursday, February 2, 2017

0:30 USD FOMC Statement

0:30 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%

19:00 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 2,100K

19:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 259K

19:00 USD Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 245.50K

19:00 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 1.00% 3.10%

19:00 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 2.00% 0.70%

Friday, February 3, 2017

19:00 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 171K 156K

19:00 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) 165K 144K

19:00 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Jan) 9.20%

19:00 USD Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.70% 4.70%

20:15 USD Markit Composite PMI (Jan) 55.4

20:15 USD Services PMI (Jan) 55.1


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Commodity weekly report 30 jan to 3-feb 2017

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Transcript of Commodity weekly report 30 jan to 3-feb 2017