COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT 23Rd December 2013

BULLIONS WEEKLY REPORT

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CAPITALSTARS FINANCIAL RESEARCH

PVT.LTD. BULLIONS WEEKLY REPORT

23–28 DECEMBER 2013




MARKET REPORT

GOLD

Gold had a busy week and now is headed towards the bottom. Gold ended the

week at 1203.90 declining from the high earlier in the week at 1251.40. Gold is off

by $48 as the Federal Reserve announced the beginning of its tapering agenda. In

its statement the FOMC upgraded their outlook of the US economic situation

along with upgrading growth for 2014 and 2015. Bernanke commented that

unemployment was improving faster than expected. Gold slipped near to a six

month low as after endless debate and speculation the US Federal reserve finally

started to taper its monetary stimulus measures. The comments were echoed by

fixed income specialist fund manager Pimco, which said that the Fed’s desire to

keep interest rates down and raise inflation to its 2% target may boost gold as

real bond yields will stay low. Data shows that the introduction of the third bout

of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve had little benefit to the gold

price, though the prospect of its being taken away has led to the sharp recent fall.

SILVER

Silver declined on the back of gold as precious metals took a beating this week

with inflation easing and the US beginning to taper its asset purchases. While gold

has fallen around 25% from its all-time high, silver prices are 55% below their

2011 peak. Some pundits will tell you the commodities bull-run are over, but we

believe those analysts have grossly misinterpreted recent events.




CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil ended the week at 98.97 soaring all week on positive eco data from the

US and a lower inventory. Brent Oil for February eased 30 cents to $109.99.

Investors read the Fed’s decision to cut its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion

to $75 billion from January as a sign of its confidence in the economy. The move

was accompanied by a pledge to continue with its ultra-low interest rates even

after achieving its goal of bringing unemployment to below 6.5%. Investors had

been concerned that a wind-down of stimulus would hit oil demand outside the

United States. The scaling back of the programme sends the greenback higher,

and in turn makes dollar-priced oil more expensive to people using other

currencies. Oil prices gained for a third day on Friday as data showed the U.S.

economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the third quarter. Real gross

domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.1% in the third quarter

before the 16-day partial government shutdown, up from the previous estimate

of 3.% , the Commerce Department said Friday. U.S. economic activity is

expanding at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions have shown further

improvement, and the unemployment rate has declined, the Fed said in a

statement. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% rate in the second quarter, the

department said. As the U.S. economy is showing signs of improvement, market

analysts expect increasing oil demand will follow. Traders also believed that the

Federal Reserve’s scale-back in its monetary stimulus program was a vote of

confidence in the economy, which gave support to the oil prices. In a nod to

better prospects for the economy and labor market, the U.S. central bank on

Wednesday modestly trimmed the pace of its monthly asset purchases by 10

billion U.S. dollars to 75 billion dollars starting in January.

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas put in a stellar performance this week ending at 4.436 after touching

a high of 4.491 as cold weather continued across the US and inventory reports




showed a higher residential use and a lower inventory than expected. As more

and more businesses and industrial users switch to gas when demand is increased

due to cold weather there is an incremental increase due to newer users.

America’s energy boom will continue for decades, and natural gas will replace

coal as the largest source of U.S. electricity by 2035, the Department of Energy

forecast today. U.S. production of crude oil will increase through 2016, when it

will approach the record set in 1970, before leveling off and then slowly declining

after 2020. Natural gas production will grow steadily, jumping 56% from 2012 to

2040, according to an early release of an annual report by DOE’s Energy

Information Administration. The price of natural gas soared more than 4 percent

to $4.44 per thousand cubic feet — the highest price since July of 2011 — after

the government reported a huge draw in supplies, the result of cold temperatures

across the U.S. in recent weeks The Energy Department said Thursday that natural

gas supplies dropped by 285 billion cubic feet last week and are 261 billion cubic

feet below the five-year average.

COPPER

Copper was buoyed by a firm global trend and increased domestic demand,

copper prices rose marginally by 0.09%. Market analysts said besides increased

demand from consuming industries, a firming trend overseas as demand from

China, the biggest user, are expected to gain, and influenced copper prices at

futures trade here. Copper rose on Friday after suffering its biggest fall in three

weeks during the previous session, as investors absorbed the U.S. Federal

Reserve’s decision this week to start curbing its stimulus. Also brightening the

outlook for the metal was an unexpectedly strong report on U.S. growth boosted

investor confidence that the economy could support a wind-down of the Fed’s

bond buying. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was last

bid up 0.51 percent at $7,238 a ton, still below its two-month high of $7,290.




TECHNICAL VIEW

GOLD MCX

WEEKLY PIVOT POINT

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

TREND BEARISH

R2 30656 R1 29794 S1 27855 S2 27170

STRATEGY SELL ON RISE

GOLD WEEKLY

SCRIPT R2 R1 PP S1 S2

GOLD 29829 29191 28734 28096 27639




GOLD COMEX

WEEKLY PIVOT POINT

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

TREND BEARISH

R2 1292 R1 1267 S1 1169 S2 1140


GOLD WEEKLY


GOLD 1279 1241 1214 1176 1149




SILVER MCX

WEEKLY PIVOT POINT

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

TREND CONSOLIDATE

R2 48477 R1 46547 S1 43172 S2 42410


SILVER WEEKLY


SILVER 46512 45259 44413 43160 42314




SILVER COMEX

WEEKLY PIVOT POINT

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

TREND CONSOLIDATE

R2 21.00 R1 20.00 S1 19.00 S2 18.00


SILVER WEEKLY


SILVER 21.00 19.40 19.00 17.55 17.15




CRUDE OIL MCX

WEEKLY PIVOT POINT

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

TREND BULLISH

R2 6535 R1 6358 S1 5867 S2 5752

STRATEGY BUY ON DIPS

CRUDE OIL WEEKLY


CRUDE OIL 6377 6284 6155 6062 5933




NATURAL GAS MCX

WEEKLY PIVOT POINT

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

TREND BULLISH

R2 291 R1 282 S1 265 S2 257


NATURAL GAS WEEKLY


NATURAL GAS 291 284 272 264 254




COPPER MCX

WEEKLY PIVOT POINT

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

TREND CONSOLIDATE

R2 471 R1 466 S1 454 S2 449


COPPER WEEKLY


COPPER 465 462 459 456 454




LEAD MCX

WEEKLY PIVOT POINT

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

TREND BULLISH

R2 140 R1 138 S1 137 S2 132


LEAD WEEKLY


COPPER 139 138 135 134 131




COMMODITY PICK OF THE WEEK: NATURAL GAS

MCX Natural Gas December as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at

254.30 levels initially moved sharply higher as it crossed crucial resistance level of 265

Later prices rallied sharply breaking the resistance of 265 & moved towards 276.70

levels and finally closed sharply higher from the previous week closing levels.

For the next week, Natural Gas prices to find support in the range of 265-268 levels &

finally towards the strong support at 255-258 levels. Resistance is observed in the range

of 281-285 levels & then finally towards the strong resistance at 291 levels.

WEEKLY RECOMMENDATION: BUY NATURAL GAS DEC MCX ABOVE 275 FOR TARGET

OF 288 TO 291 WITH SL OF 265- 263.




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CAPITAL STARS FINANCIAL

RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED

PLOT NO. 12, SCHEME NO. 78, PART II

VIJAYNAGAR INDORE 452001 (MP)

COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT 23Rd December 2013

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