22 DEC – 26 DEC 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures managed to hold gains on bargain buying amid Federal Reserve

comments, however strong dollar capped the gains. Gold was supported after the

Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it would remain “patient” in its approach to

raising interest rates. Reports of negative interest rate introduction by Swiss National

Bank also supported the upside in the metal. The US dollar remained supported on

strong job data amid Federal Reserve comments. The Dollar surged against the Euro

with the euro quotes at $1.2266, down 0.16% over last day close and the US dollar

index quotes at 89.64, up 0.21% over last day close. The upbeat German consumer

confidence failed to support the euro. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to

8.9 this month. The COMEX Gold February delivery quotes at $1,197.80 a troy ounce,

up $3 and the March Silver quotes at $15.955, up 2 cents over last close. Gold is

expected to see further upside only if it sustains above $1200 level on Friday. Local

gold spurted on firm global cues amid weak local currency. The MCX Gold February

delivery quotes at Rs 26965, up 0.56%. The Silver March delivery quotes at Rs 36757,

up 0.55% over last close. Indian rupee quotes at Rs 63.310, up 0.49%.

Crude prices surged from the lowest closing levels since May 2009 as comments from

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister yesterday added to the most volatile market in three years.

West Texas Intermediate climbed 4.5 percent in New York, the biggest gain since

August 2012. Both WTI and Brent rose more than 5 percent during the session. A

measure of expected WTI futures movements and a gauge of options value was at

the highest level since October 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While Ali Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, said yesterday that a slump in prices

was temporary, he also said it would be “difficult, if not impossible” for OPEC to curb

its oil production amid a glut, the Saudi Press Agency reported. Prices rose

immediately after his remarks, before ending the day at the lowest in five years. The

nation accounted for about 13 percent of global oil output last year, BP Plc estimates.

Oil Surges From

Five-Year Low as

OPEC Comments

Add Volatility.

MCX Copper

Gains In Mid

Asian Trades.

The prices of MCX Copper recovered in the mid Asian trades after a series of negative

sessions during the week. The gains in Copper have only been due to weekend

squaring of short positions and simultaneous bottom fishing rally.

The prices of Copper in domestic markets shrinked close to Rs 402 last night before

the gains in today's session, that has been heartening for the day traders. When last

checked Copper was trading at Rs 408.3 per kg, up 1.58 percent.

Indian commodities markets on the other hand has faced alarming situation in respect

to the volumes. The cumulative numbers of metals as well as commodities at large

have been dismal. The data set released by Forwards Market Commission (FMC)

mentioned that cumulative value of trades of all the segments like Agriculture,

Bullions, Metals and Energy showed a drop in the period of 1st April to 30 November

2014. The cumulative value of trade in bullions in the period of 1st April to 30

November 2014 was down by a massive 48% to Rs 3988004.75 crores. Similarly,

cumulative value of trade in metals during the period of 1 April to 30 November 2014

was Rs 846166.9 crores, down 39.09% from Rs 1389268.29 crores.

Gold Up But

Under $1200 On

Strong Dollar.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Dec 22 8:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.21M 5.26M

Dec 23 7:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.1% -1.1%

7:00pm Final GDP q/q 4.3% 3.9%

7:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.0% 0.3%

7:00pm Final GDP Price Index q/q 1.4% 1.4%

7:30pm HPI m/m 0.3% 0.0%

8:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.5 93.8

8:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%

8:30pm New Home Sales 461K 458K

8:30pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%

8:30pm Personal Spending m/m 0.5% 0.2%

8:30pm Personal Income m/m 0.6% 0.2%

8:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 8 4

Dec 24 7:00pm Unemployment Claims 291K 289K

9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -0.8M

10:30pm Natural Gas Storage -64B

Dec 25 All Day Bank Holiday

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

26680 26280 25840 27300 27800 28180

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

36160 34745 33490 37850 39150 40170

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed choppy movement,

tested the resistance level of 27640

and drag down towards the support

level of 26750. Now, if it is able to

sustain below 26700 then next support

level is seen around 26300. On other

hand if it maintain above 27600 then

bullish movement take it towards the

next resistance level of 28000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 26700 for the targets of 26000

with stop loss of 28000.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

bearish movement last week, found

support around 23.6% retracement

and closed near to it. Now, if it sustain

below 36000 then next support is seen

in the range of 35000-34000. On higher

side maintain above 38500 then next

resistance is seen around 50%

retracement i.e. 40000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 36000 for

the target of 34000, with stop loss of

39500.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

3435 3125 2885 3765 4060 4350

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

401.25 396.10 389.80 412.30 418.20 423.35

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed bearish

movement but not able to sustain

below 400 and showed strong pull

back on last session. Now, immediate

resistance is seen near 415 above

which 418.20 will act as strong

resistance, if it is closed above this

resistance then breakout of channel

pattern is expected and may find next

resistance at 423. On lower side 400

will act as important support for it.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell below 3500 for the target of 3300,

with stop loss of 3750.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

sideways movement found support of

psychological level of 3500 and

consolidate around it. Now, if it sustain

below 3500 then bears may again

active and find next support around

3100. If some correction occurs and

maintains above 3800 then 4000 will

act as major resistance for it.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

on dips, with stop loss of 395 for the

target of 423.

PIVOT TABLE

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