Commodity trading tips for commodity market
Transcript of Commodity trading tips for commodity market
22 DEC – 26 DEC 2014
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
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T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures managed to hold gains on bargain buying amid Federal Reserve
comments, however strong dollar capped the gains. Gold was supported after the
Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it would remain “patient” in its approach to
raising interest rates. Reports of negative interest rate introduction by Swiss National
Bank also supported the upside in the metal. The US dollar remained supported on
strong job data amid Federal Reserve comments. The Dollar surged against the Euro
with the euro quotes at $1.2266, down 0.16% over last day close and the US dollar
index quotes at 89.64, up 0.21% over last day close. The upbeat German consumer
confidence failed to support the euro. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to
8.9 this month. The COMEX Gold February delivery quotes at $1,197.80 a troy ounce,
up $3 and the March Silver quotes at $15.955, up 2 cents over last close. Gold is
expected to see further upside only if it sustains above $1200 level on Friday. Local
gold spurted on firm global cues amid weak local currency. The MCX Gold February
delivery quotes at Rs 26965, up 0.56%. The Silver March delivery quotes at Rs 36757,
up 0.55% over last close. Indian rupee quotes at Rs 63.310, up 0.49%.
Crude prices surged from the lowest closing levels since May 2009 as comments from
Saudi Arabia’s oil minister yesterday added to the most volatile market in three years.
West Texas Intermediate climbed 4.5 percent in New York, the biggest gain since
August 2012. Both WTI and Brent rose more than 5 percent during the session. A
measure of expected WTI futures movements and a gauge of options value was at
the highest level since October 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
While Ali Al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, said yesterday that a slump in prices
was temporary, he also said it would be “difficult, if not impossible” for OPEC to curb
its oil production amid a glut, the Saudi Press Agency reported. Prices rose
immediately after his remarks, before ending the day at the lowest in five years. The
nation accounted for about 13 percent of global oil output last year, BP Plc estimates.
Oil Surges From
Five-Year Low as
OPEC Comments
Add Volatility.
MCX Copper
Gains In Mid
Asian Trades.
The prices of MCX Copper recovered in the mid Asian trades after a series of negative
sessions during the week. The gains in Copper have only been due to weekend
squaring of short positions and simultaneous bottom fishing rally.
The prices of Copper in domestic markets shrinked close to Rs 402 last night before
the gains in today's session, that has been heartening for the day traders. When last
checked Copper was trading at Rs 408.3 per kg, up 1.58 percent.
Indian commodities markets on the other hand has faced alarming situation in respect
to the volumes. The cumulative numbers of metals as well as commodities at large
have been dismal. The data set released by Forwards Market Commission (FMC)
mentioned that cumulative value of trades of all the segments like Agriculture,
Bullions, Metals and Energy showed a drop in the period of 1st April to 30 November
2014. The cumulative value of trade in bullions in the period of 1st April to 30
November 2014 was down by a massive 48% to Rs 3988004.75 crores. Similarly,
cumulative value of trade in metals during the period of 1 April to 30 November 2014
was Rs 846166.9 crores, down 39.09% from Rs 1389268.29 crores.
Gold Up But
Under $1200 On
Strong Dollar.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Dec 22 8:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.21M 5.26M
Dec 23 7:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.1% -1.1%
7:00pm Final GDP q/q 4.3% 3.9%
7:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.0% 0.3%
7:00pm Final GDP Price Index q/q 1.4% 1.4%
7:30pm HPI m/m 0.3% 0.0%
8:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.5 93.8
8:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%
8:30pm New Home Sales 461K 458K
8:30pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%
8:30pm Personal Spending m/m 0.5% 0.2%
8:30pm Personal Income m/m 0.6% 0.2%
8:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 8 4
Dec 24 7:00pm Unemployment Claims 291K 289K
9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -0.8M
10:30pm Natural Gas Storage -64B
Dec 25 All Day Bank Holiday
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26680 26280 25840 27300 27800 28180
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
36160 34745 33490 37850 39150 40170
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed choppy movement,
tested the resistance level of 27640
and drag down towards the support
level of 26750. Now, if it is able to
sustain below 26700 then next support
level is seen around 26300. On other
hand if it maintain above 27600 then
bullish movement take it towards the
next resistance level of 28000.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 26700 for the targets of 26000
with stop loss of 28000.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
bearish movement last week, found
support around 23.6% retracement
and closed near to it. Now, if it sustain
below 36000 then next support is seen
in the range of 35000-34000. On higher
side maintain above 38500 then next
resistance is seen around 50%
retracement i.e. 40000.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 36000 for
the target of 34000, with stop loss of
39500.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
3435 3125 2885 3765 4060 4350
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
401.25 396.10 389.80 412.30 418.20 423.35
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed bearish
movement but not able to sustain
below 400 and showed strong pull
back on last session. Now, immediate
resistance is seen near 415 above
which 418.20 will act as strong
resistance, if it is closed above this
resistance then breakout of channel
pattern is expected and may find next
resistance at 423. On lower side 400
will act as important support for it.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 3500 for the target of 3300,
with stop loss of 3750.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
sideways movement found support of
psychological level of 3500 and
consolidate around it. Now, if it sustain
below 3500 then bears may again
active and find next support around
3100. If some correction occurs and
maintains above 3800 then 4000 will
act as major resistance for it.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
on dips, with stop loss of 395 for the
target of 423.
PIVOT TABLE
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