Commodity Monthly Monitor€¦ · Commodity analysts – who are ... Gold appears to be the go-to...

Summary

ContentsCommodities market overview 1

Summary tables 4

CFTC net positioning 5

Inventories 9

Moving average and volumes 13

Futures curves 17

Recent publications 21

Commodity Monthly Matrix1 Performance

2- 1 Mth - 6 Mth - 12 Mth

All Commodities -5.5% -23.6% -24.8%

Energy -13.5% -53.4% -58.6%

WTI Oil 17 -29.4% -65.9% 20.2% 35% -20.2% (2) (2) Industrial Metals 3.8% -18.7% -18.9%

Brent Oil 21 -21.0% -61.3% -5.4% 24% -13.6% 0 (2) Precious Metals 4.9% 8.3% 27.3%

Natural Gas 1.7 5.6% -18.9% -22.1% 39% -7.9% 1 0 Agriculture -8.4% -11.5% -9.6%

Gasoline 0.7 49.0% -55.0% 0.8% 4% -5.6% (1) (2) MSCI World 13.8% -10.1% -7.8%

Heating Oil 0.6 -40.1% -62.2% -10.6% 60% -11.7% 0 0 US Aggregate Bond 3.6% 5.4% 11.0%

Carbon 20.7 23.8% -14.7% - - -0.2% (2) (4)

Wheat 5.3 -6.2% 0.8% 1.6% 7% -0.7% (1) 4

Corn 3.2 -9.1% -15.3% 1.8% -62% -2.2% (4) (2)

Soybeans 8 -6.1% -6.4% 3.9% -22% -0.9% (4) (2)

Sugar 0.1 -13.7% -22.2% - -120% -0.8% (2) (2)

Cotton 0.5 3.9% -12.1% 14.7% 42% -1.3% (1) (4)

Coffee 1.1 -16.2% -2.8% - 55% -1.5% (1) 0

Soybean Oil 0.3 -5.6% -15.9% 21.3% -141% -1.8% (4) (2)

Cocoa 2,341 2.9% -6.2% - -131% 0.8% 0 (1) CFTC Net Speculative PositioningAluminium 1,491 -2.5% -13.0% 19.1% 9% -1.0% (2) (2) (in '000 contracts)

Copper (COMEX) 2.3 6.3% -9.7% 20.6% 20% 0.0% 1 0

Copper (LME) 5,126 6.6% -10.2% 38.2% -4% -0.1% (3) (4)

Zinc 1,875 3.8% -16.4% 133.5% 6% -0.3% (1) (4)

Nickel 12,195 8.8% -15.5% 19.7% -5% -0.2% (3) (4)

Lead 1,600 1.5% -17.8% -14.4% 5% -0.6% 1 (2)

Tin 14,955 11.1% -9.1% -30.1% -2% 0.1% 1 0

Gold 1,724 3.8% 12.1% - -12% - 0 (2)

Silver 15 7.3% -10.4% - -12% - (2) (4)

Platinum 773 10.2% -13.2% - -34% - (2) (4)

Palladium 1,985 9.3% 5.9% - 14540% - 4 (2)

Live Cattle 0.8 -19.9% -23.2% - 53% 2.8% 1 (1)

Lean Hogs 0.5 -20.9% -17.4% - 0% 1.9% 1 (4)

Feeder Cattle 1.2 -8.0% -12.7% - 46% 2.0% 1 1Source: WisdomTree, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Bloomberg

1

Commodity Monthly Monitor

Commodities through the looking glass 20 Mar - 24 Apr 2020

Commodity analysts – who are invariably feeling the signs of cabin fever in this era of social distancing -

entered this month like Alice entering the looking glass in Lewis Caroll’s famous 1871 novel. Just like a

reflection, many things appear to be similar to the world they were used to, but they are reversed. In the

face of a demand-crisis, key oil producers are engaged in a price war rather than cutting production! WTI

oil traded negative. People were being paid to take oil away! Positioning in WTI oil futures rose despite this

fall in price. Industrial metals – facing the same demand constraints as other commodities – rallied.

For those that need to escape the surrealism, a quick look at gold provides a sanity check. It is still the only

commodity that has posted year-to-date gains. As a defensive asset, amid the sudden stop in global

economic activity, gold is well positioned for a secular rally. While central banks and fiscal authorities are

finding new and innovative ways to stimulate their economies, concerns about future indebtedness,

currency debasement and inflation expectations becoming unanchored are linked to their actions. When

the immediate crisis is over, will they be able to wean their economies off the stimulus or will we see market

tantrums? Right now, they seem desirable problems to have compared to averting a free-fall in the

economy. Gold appears to be the go-to hedge for investors thinking about the issues in months (or years)

to come.

While the equity markets like the S&P 500 have rallied in recent weeks, broad commodities remain in the

doldrums. Is that another Federal Reserve-induced illusion or is there a fundamental disconnect between

the two sets of cyclical assets? Energy, as we have noted, has its idiosyncratic features. Metals, including

industrial metals, have however posted gains in recent weeks. Industrial metals have seen a stronger

supply reduction than energy which has driven its outperformance. However, platinum group metals

(which are the most industrial of the precious metals group) have seen even greater supply disruptions,

providing a tailwind to prices. Agricultural commodities have posted losses in the past month. However,

this sector could see substantial gains when global activity returns to normal while supply chains remain

damaged. It’s yet to be seen if commodities as a broad asset class will see as swift a recovery as equities.

Nitesh Shah

Director

Aneeka Gupta

Director

Mobeen Tahir

Associate Director

Current

Price2

Returns

(-1 Mth)

Positioning4

(- 1 Mth)

WTI oil traded negative for the first time in history, underscoring the acute challenges in the oil market

today. With demand in free-fall and supply unable to cut back in a timely manner, inventory is rising at

an unprecedented level. Challenges to storage have been laid bare.

Rising supply disruptions owing to the COVID-19 led mine restrictions help industrial metals stage a

price recovery. While the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted demand substantially, investors are

realising that supply loses driven by mine closures due to the COVID-19 outbreak coupled with

tightening scrap supply are beginning to limit an inventory build for most metals.

Precious metals bounce back as liquidity pressures ease. Gold more than offset its losses last month

from the month before as policy response from governments and central banks helped ease nerves in

equity markets, lifting some of the liquidity driven selling pressure from the yellow metal. Other precious

metals, more industrial in nature, also bounced back in line with base metals as an easing in lockdown

conditions is improving the prospects of industrial demand.

Agricultural commodities to remain volatile amidst lower oil prices, ample supply situation and covid-

19 related demand losses. Net speculative positioning across most agricultural commodities declined

over the prior month as investors remained cautious on the outlook of agricultural commodities amidst

rising uncertainties emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic.

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24 Apr

Score

20 Mar

Score

Inventories3

(- 3 Mths)

Price vs 200

days MARoll Yield

5

Bloomberg TR Indexes for basket returns, data to Friday 24 April 2020. Source:

WisdomTree, Bloomberg

The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg

- Information not available. Green = returns positive, inventories falling, positioning rising, roll yield positive. Red = the opposite. Black = neutral. 1 Detailed explanation of the matrix calculations can be found at the end of this

report. 2 All prices are futures prices to Friday 24 Apr 20. Broad sector returns based on Bloomberg Commodity Index family. 3 % change in inventory over the past 3 months except for sugar and coffee which are based on past

6 months as data is updated bi-annually by USDA. 4 CFTC futures and LME COTR net positioning as at Apr 21, 2020 and Apr 24, 2020 respectively, % change from previous month. 5 Calculated as % difference between front

month and second month futures prices on report date.

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Precious Metals Livestock Industrial Metals

Energy Agriculture

Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Agriculture Agriculture - April Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Industrial Metals Industrial Metals - April Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Energy Energy - April Returns*

Source: Bloomberg

Precious Metals Precious Metals - April Returns*

2

Source: Bloomberg

*Note: all returns are based on front month futures prices in the month to Friday 24 April 2020.


Rising mine supply disruptions help industrial metals stage a price recovery over the prior month. While

the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted demand, investors are realising that supply losses driven by

mine closures due to the COVID-19 led lockdowns coupled with tightening scrap supply are limiting an

inventory build for most metals. Surprisingly, positive economic data in China also lent buoyancy to

industrial metals price recovery as it is providing evidence that the situation is stabilising in the world’s

largest consumer and producer of commodities. The customs authorities reported total imports

contracted by only 0.9% and the decline in exports -6.6% was smaller than -4% and -17.2% decline in

January and February respectively. Imports of copper and iron ore in particular held up well.

Unlike other industrial metals experiencing a supply shock, aluminium’s supply has continued to

increase. The aluminium industry’s supply is known to be price inelastic owing to falling input costs,

higher smelter restart costs, longer term power contracts and government support. Energy accounts

for 40% of aluminium’s production costs, so falling oil prices is lowering the production costs of smelters.

In addition, aluminium smelting’s low labour intensity has not resulted in the need for major cuts in

output due to COVID-19. Consequently, aluminium has seen very limited impact from the quarantine

restrictions, driving a rapid build in its inventory that will take a much longer duration to clear even

once demand resumes.

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Coffee prices declined sharply by 16.2% over the prior month and are likely to remain volatile as we

fast approach (end of April beginning May 2020) the coffee harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee

producer. The first estimates for the 2020/21 coffee crop indicate that Brazil should harvest a large

volume. The Brazilian national agricultural agency, Conab, envisages a crop range of 57.2 to 62.0mn

bags. A steep increase in production is expected for Arabica coffee, as the upcoming crop in Brazil in

2020/21 is from a high-yield year in the two-year crop cycle which justifies why the crop is set to be

significantly higher than last year. We also expect the weakness of the Brazilian real to serve as a

headwind to coffee prices since the weaker real encourages producers to offer more coffee on the

export markets as it increases their revenue in USD terms. The upcoming harvest in Colombia is also

expected to be significantly better than the last.

Sugar prices slid 13.7% over the prior month and further weakness is expected ahead. The rapid decline

of energy prices due to a combination of supply and demand shocks is weighing on sugar prices since

sugar cane is one of the products used to make ethanol. At low energy prices, the demand for

alternative fuels such as ethanol decreases, owing to which we expect a higher proportion of sugar

cane to be processed into sugar. The weak Brazilian real is also acting as a headwind for sugar prices.

Industrial consumption of sugar is likely to weaken as food and beverage plants are negatively

impacted owing to production halts and partial lockdown of restaurants.

Sector Overview

Volatility in oil markets continues despite Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+

finally agreeing to a deal that will bring about the largest coordinated cut in oil production ever seen.

As we reported last month, OPEC+ had contributed to the chaos by engaging in a price war at a time

when demand was falling hard. This deal however is simply too little, too late to deal with the

oversupply in the short-term. According to the International Energy Agency, demand destruction is

close to 30 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April 2020 alone and will average 9.3 mb/d in 2020. OPEC+

production was still rising in the first half of April. The deal does not officially start until May 2020, when

the group will cut 9.7 mb/d until July 2020 and then they will start to taper down the cuts. Oversupply in

oil is clearly going to be an issue for months to come. However, the OPEC cuts last until April 2022, so

there is prospect for oil markets to regain balance, but most likely after demand has recovered

substantially.

Storing the excess oil is becoming a problem. Cheap oil for immediate delivery has driven contango to

levels never seen before. That, in turn, has driven higher the demand for storage: many want to buy

cheap oil today and store for later use (or to sell later) as spot prices recover. This problem came to a

head last week when the about-to-expire WTI contract traded negative for the first time. WTI is a

deliverable contract. As that contract was approaching expiry, many were trying to close out of their

long positions to avoid delivery. However, with tightness in storage availability at Cushing, Oklahoma,

where the contracts settle, the WTI contract traded negatively. Which in effect means that people

were being paid to take delivery of oil and store it. According to Energy Information Administration

(EIA) data, storage at Cushing was close to 75% full around the time – indicating 25% infilled storage

capacity. But most of that was either leased or otherwise committed. WTI briefly traded close to -

US$40/bbl on Monday 20th April.

Charter rates for ships that can carry oil have risen sharply as land storage is filling. We have been

seeing a large decline in rigs in operation in the US, which will eventually reduce production and take

the pressure off constrained storage.

Gasoline prices have recovered 49% in the last month, after heavy declines in March. With refinery shut-

ins the supply of gasoline is paring back, which has been price supportive. Natural gas, also posted

gains in the past month. Because natural gas is a by-product from drilling for shale, its supply is likely to

decline with falling rigs in operation.

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In our publication last month, we observed how large drawdowns in equity markets during March had

created liquidity driven selling pressures on gold. With strong policy response from both governments

and central banks helping calm equity markets, gold has bounced back over the last month. Strong

fiscal and monetary accommodation from policymakers around the world to combat the coronavirus

pandemic has also raised the risk of currency devaluation causing investors to increasingly look

towards gold as a more effective store of wealth. Lockdowns around the world have also prompted

economists to revise down their economic forecasts for 2020 with the International Monetary Fund

predicting a global GDP contraction of 3% this year. We believe that demand for safe havens, in light

of this uncertainty, is likely to remain high this year causing gold prices to continue finding support.

Silver, which derives nearly 60% of its demand from industrial applications, has historically had nearly

80% correlation with gold. As the pandemic spread around the world in March, silver took a double

blow due to falling industrial demand and liquidity driven selling pressures on gold. Silver, thus, fell more

than gold. Since then, gold has more than offset its losses while silver still has further to go despite the

recovery over the last month. Silver’s recovery has been contained by headwinds facing global

manufacturing in the current environment. This situation is also illustrated in a considerably elevated

gold to silver ratio compared to historic levels. If the worst of the pandemic is passed as we enter the

second half of the year and industrial demand picks up, silver prices could be lifted meaningfully

helping them close the gap with gold in terms of price trajectory.

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-50%

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-30%

-20%

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Positioning Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in CFTC Net Positions (over past month)1

Source: Bloomberg

Inventories Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in Inventories (over past 3 months)2

Curve Dynamics Top 5/Bottom 5 Roll Yields (front to next month)3

Source: Bloomberg

Technicals Top 5/Bottom 5 Price Diff to 200 day moving av. (dma)4

Source: Bloomberg

1 CFTC futures net positioning as at report date, percent change from previous month. 2 Percent change in inventory based on 3 month change (in %).

3 Roll yields calculated as percent change between front month futures price and next month futures price on Apr 24, 2020.4 Percent difference between the front month futures price and its 200 day moving average on Apr 24, 2020.

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Technical Overview (as of Apr 24, 2020)

While net speculative positioning in palladium is showing a strong increase in

percentage terms from last month, it still remains considerably low compared to the

historic average and levels at the start of this year. Palladium’s demand, which

comes mostly from the metal’s use in autocatalysts, has been hit strongly with falling

car sales and manufacturing activity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

Net shorts in heating oil (low-sulphur diesel) fell from -17,061 to -6,889. That could be

an indication that investors feel most of the bad news is priced in. Refiner shut-ins

are likely to tighten the supply of diesel in the short-term.

Net speculative positioning on coffee futures rose 55% as investors covered their

short positions by 35% as some of the negative sentiment toward the crop was

lifted.

Net speculative futures positioning on sugar futures have declined 120% over the

prior month owing to a 49% increase in short positions, underscoring the extent of

the bearishness towards sugar prices.

Cocoa speculative positioning has moved from net long last month to net short as

sentiment towards cocoa turned more bearish.

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Crude oils - WTI and Brent – are exhibiting the steepest contango of any

commodity, with negative implied roll yields of 20% and 14% respectively. This steep

contango has been driven by the twin-shock of COVID-19 and an oil price war.

Heating oil, natural gas and gasoline – all energy commodities – represent the other

3 of the 5 lowest roll yields in the commodity space.

Weak demand is contributing to the lower than seasonal backwardation for live

cattle futures, providing a roll yield of only 2.8%. The front end of the cocoa futures

curve is also backwardated yielding a positive yield of +0.8%.

While zinc inventories have increased 134% over the prior 3 months, the trend is

swiftly changing evident from the 4% decline in inventories over the prior month.

Due to the high concentration of zinc mining in Peru and Mexico which are

undergoing quarantine restrictions (11% and 6% of global supply), zinc has seen the

largest impact from mine disruptions among the base metals. Low zinc prices are

also likely to drive some mines out of the market in the near term.

Large volumes of copper mining capacity have been suspended in response to

COVID-19 pandemic as the quarantine restrictions across the globe result in

substantial cuts to output affecting nearly 16% of global mine capacity. While

copper inventories have increased 48% over the prior 3 months, ongoing supply

disruptions have resulted in a 10% decline in copper inventories over the prior

month.

WTI inventories rose 20.2% over the past 3 months. Inventory is now close to 2

standard deviations higher that the seasonal average. That pace of inventory

increase is placing storage under strain.

Source: Bloomberg

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Oil and petroleum products dominate the bottom 5 in the departure from 200-day

moving averages price chart.

Prices for precious metals recovered last month with gold and palladium trading at

12.1% and 5.9% above their 200-dma respectively. Palladium prices recovered last

month along with other industrial metals as reduced mining operations have

partially offset the reduction in demand. Moreover, gradual easing of lockdown

conditions in some countries is helping markets develop optimism regarding

improved demand in the second half of the year.

Coffee is trading 2.8% below their 200-day moving average (dma), we expect

further weakness ahead owing to the expected sharp rise in processing of sugar

cane into sugar in Brazil owing to declining energy prices.

Cocoa is trading 6.2% below their 200-dma however we expect cocoa prices to

rebound as the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) anticipates a deficit on

the global cocoa market in the current 2019/20 crop year. In addition, demand is

also set to grow 1.2%


-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%

Zinc

Copper - LME

Soybean Oil

Copper - Comex

WTI Oil

Brent Oil

Heating Oil

Lead

Natural Gas

Tin

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20%

Gold

Palladium

Wheat

Coffee

Cocoa

Live Cattle

Gasoline

Brent Oil

Heating Oil

WTI Oil

% < 200 dma % > 200 dma

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

Live Cattle

Feeder Cattle

Lean Hogs

Cocoa

Palladium

Gasoline

Natural Gas

Heating Oil

Brent Oil

WTI Oil

Contango Backwardation

-2000% 0% 2000% 4000% 6000% 8000% 10000%12000%14000%16000%

Palladium

Heating Oil

Coffee

Live Cattle

Feeder Cattle

Platinum

Corn

Sugar

Cocoa

Soybean Oil

4 23 42 61 4 3

Unit ROLL YIELDS2 Unit Exchange 24-Apr 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month

Energy EnergyWTI Oil 17 USD/bbl. -29.4% -68.7% -69.9% -74.3% WTI Oil USD/bbl. NYMEX -20.2% -22.2% -8.4% 0.0%

Brent Oil 21 USD/bbl. -21.0% -64.7% -65.2% -71.2% Brent Oil USD/bbl. ICE -13.6% -11.8% -8.7% 1.3%

Natural Gas 1.7 USD/MMBtu 5.6% -7.8% -24.6% -29.1% Natural Gas USD/MMBtu NYMEX -7.9% -8.6% -4.4% 1.2%

Gasoline 0.7 USd/gal. 49.0% -56.4% -60.2% -68.9% Gasoline USd/gal. NYMEX -5.6% -6.8% -13.1% -0.7%

Heating Oil 0.6 USd/gal. -40.1% -62.7% -67.4% -69.2% Heating Oil USd/gal. NYMEX -11.7% -2.7% -0.3% -0.2%

Carbon 20.7 EUR/MT 23.8% -14.9% -18.7% -24.4% Carbon EUR/MT ICE -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

Agriculture

Wheat 5.3 USd/bu. -6.2% -8.2% 2.1% 21.9% Wheat USd/bu. CBOT -0.7% -0.1% 1.1% 0.2%

Corn 3.2 USd/bu. -9.1% -18.5% -18.4% -8.9% Corn USd/bu. CBOT -2.2% -2.0% -1.3% -1.4%

Soybeans 8.3 USd/bu. -6.1% -7.7% -10.8% -2.7% Soybeans USd/bu. CBOT -0.9% -1.1% -0.1% -1.5%

Sugar 0.1 USd/lb. -13.7% -32.4% -20.9% -23.3% Sugar USd/lb. NYBOT -0.8% -1.6% 1.4% 0.5%

Cotton 0.5 USd/lb. 3.9% -20.9% -15.0% -27.5% Cotton USd/lb. NYBOT -1.3% -0.4% -0.2% -1.1%

Coffee 1.1 USd/lb. -16.2% -4.5% 9.1% 16.3% Coffee USd/lb. NYBOT -1.5% -0.9% 0.2% -2.0%

Soybean Oil 0.3 USd/lb. -5.6% -21.8% -20.1% -10.3% Soybean Oil USd/lb. CBOT -1.8% -1.4% -1.1% -1.1%

Cocoa 2,341 USD/MT 2.9% -14.3% -5.0% 3.6% Cocoa USD/MT NYBOT 0.8% -1.0% 0.4% -0.9%

Industrial Metals Industrial Metals

Aluminum 1,491 USD/MT -2.5% -15.6% -13.7% -19.6% Aluminum USD/MT LME -1.0% -0.9% -0.6% -0.5%

Copper 2.3 USd/lb. 6.3% -12.9% -12.4% -19.7% Copper USd/lb. COMEX 0.0% -0.6% 0.8% -0.4%

Copper (LME) 5,126 USD/MT 6.6% -13.3% -12.7% -20.5% Copper (LME) USD/MT LME -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

Zinc 1,875 USD/MT 3.8% -20.1% -26.0% -33.0% Zinc USD/MT LME -0.3% -0.2% -0.4% 0.0%

Nickel 12,195 USD/MT 8.8% -5.4% -27.7% -1.3% Nickel USD/MT LME -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

Lead 1,600 USD/MT 1.5% -17.9% -28.6% -16.5% Lead USD/MT LME -0.6% -0.4% -0.5% 0.4%

Tin 14,955 USD/MT 11.1% -11.1% -10.8% -24.3% Tin USD/MT LME 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -0.1%

Precious Metals Precious Metals

Gold 1,724 USD/t oz. 3.8% 9.6% 15.0% 35.1% Gold USD/t oz. COMEX -0.7% -0.7% -0.2% -0.4%

Silver 15.3 USD/t oz. 7.3% -15.7% -14.3% 2.3% Silver USD/t oz. COMEX -1.2% -0.9% -0.2% -0.4%

Platinum 773 USD/t oz. 10.2% -23.1% -16.1% -12.5% Platinum USD/t oz. NYMEX -0.1% -0.5% 0.0% -0.5%

Palladium 1,985 USD/t oz. 9.3% -14.3% 13.6% 41.3% Palladium USD/t oz. NYMEX 0.4% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3%

Livestock Livestock

Live Cattle 0.8 USd/lb. -19.9% -31.9% -23.0% -33.0% Live Cattle USd/lb. CME 2.8% 10.4% 9.4% 0.4%

Lean Hogs 0.5 USd/lb. -20.9% -21.9% -18.6% -41.1% Lean Hogs USd/lb. CME 1.9% -13.5% 0.8% -8.5%

Feeder Cattle 1.2 USd/lb. -8.0% -15.5% -17.5% -18.2% Feeder Cattle USd/lb. CME 2.0% -0.2% 0.1% 1.6%

EnergyE

nEnergy

WTI Oil 579,746 453,047 431,008 392,752 581,229 Oil - US 518,640 6.1% 14% 20% 20%

Brent Oil** -31,962 194,388 -42,258 238,952 185,639 Oil - OECD Europe** 339 -5% -3.3% -5.4% -6%

Natural Gas -67,901 -111,643 -111,115 -211,848 -60,595 Natural Gas - DOE 2,140 13.4% 7% -22% -41%

Gasoline 93,720 74,838 89,952 63,079 98,956 Gasoline - DOE 263,234 9.1% 10% 1% 18%

Heating Oil -6,889 13,753 -17,061 -1,974 -12,192 Heating Oil - DOE 9,686 -10% 0% -11% -14%

Agriculture Industrial Metals

Wheat 28,088 -37,320 26,341 19,397 -56,260 Aluminum 1,776,328 -21% 9% 19% 38%

Corn -129,620 33,202 -79,815 -58,128 -270,560 Aluminum - LME 1,317,925 -26% 20% 5% 36%

Soybeans 18,913 33,563 24,360 83,107 -110,318 Aluminium - SHFE 458,403 0% -14% 99% 45%

Sugar -9,811 50,705 49,359 -203,643 5,144 Copper 563,650 4% -11% 48% 25%

Cotton -7,298 52,534 -12,544 5,395 42,548 Copper - LME 262,600 5% 16% 38% -1%

Coffee 24,610 -14,785 15,861 -50,621 -66,070 Copper - SHFE 259,037 37% -31% 66% 70%

Soybean Oil -3,798 37,592 9,244 87,709 -29,628 Copper - COMEX 42,013 -60% 41% 21% 20%

Cocoa -2,905 19,983 9,410 31,350 -2,345 Nickel - LME 230,664 -27% 0% 20% 189%

Industrial Metals5 Zinc 232,824 -42% -4% 134% 82%

Copper (COMEX) -19,865 1,372 -24,790 -40,532 869 Zinc - LME 99,475 -64% 34% 97% 68%

Copper (LME) 28,814 34,733 29,931 17,625 42,659 Zinc - SHFE 133,349 8% -21% 171% 94%

Aluminum 185,650 158,103 169,857 129,479 157,722 Lead 80,274 -52% -14% -14% -10%

Nickel 22,002 20,608 23,202 31,324 20,523 Lead - LME 73,200 -47% 3% 11% 6%

Zinc 33,884 44,070 31,984 34,862 59,078 Lead - SHFE 7,074 -76% -69% -74% -64%

Lead 51,964 52,639 49,276 60,852 45,788 Tin 9,747 10% -12% -30% -13%

Tin 9,182 8,219 9,342 8,181 7,947 Tin - LME 6,045 44% -3% -13% -9%

Precious Metals Tin - SHFE 3,702 -21% -23% -47% -19%

Gold 276,756 167,432 312,762 290,532 36,022A

gAgriculture

Silver 25,143 40,108 28,418 49,777 -3,071 Wheat - USDA 292,780 49.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7%

Platinum 13,582 25,180 20,637 35,177 32,468 Corn - USDA 303,170 108% 2.0% 1.8% 0.2%

Palladium 732 12,254 5 13,302 8,962 Soybeans - USDA 100,450 59% -1.9% 3.9% 6%

Livestock Sugar - USDA 49,580 38% - - 4%

Live Cattle 34,473 78,543 22,583 52,261 183,134 Cotton - USDA 91,260 28% 9.4% 14.7% 9.0%

Lean Hogs 36,336 40,679 36,325 51,649 97,769 Coffee - USDA 34,976 -3% - - 4%

Feeder Cattle 1,596 6,429 1,090 1,653 10,928 Soybean Oil - USDA 4,050 -2% 22.0% 21% 10%

1Performance of front month futures from 24 Apr 19 (1 Year), 24 Oct 19 (6 Month), 24 Jan 20 (3 Month) and 24 Mar 20 (1 Month) to 24 Apr 20.

2Roll return non-annualised from front month futures into second " month on 24 Jan 20 (3 Month), 24 Mar 20 (1 Month), 16 Apr 20 (1 Week), 24 Apr 20.

4

Summary Tables

INVENTORY LEVELS4

Current 1 Year

5 Yr

Average

PRICES1 3 Month

1 Month

6 Month1 Month

6 Month

3Net positions in number of contracts.

4Current inventories relative to 1, 3, 6 months ago. Under the column "5 yr average" is the current inventory level relative to 5 year average inventory.

For energy, 5 yr average is the average of the same month as report month over the past 5 years. SHFE started reporting inventory data from April 2015. 5All Industrial metals positioning

data (excluding copper) is sourced from LME COTR data in Bloomberg from 30 January 2018 (first available date) under post-MIFID rules. **Brent 5 Yr average of net positions from January

2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then and inventory data (OECD) reported with 3 month lag with current = Jan 2020


Agriculture

1 YearCFTC NET POSITIONING3 6 MonthCurrent 3 Month

5 Yr

Average1 MonthCurrent

T

Agriculture

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree



·Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning 5

CFTC Speculative Net Long Futures Positions

All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. CFTC futures and LME COTR net positioning as at Apr 21, 2020 and Apr 24, 2020 respectively.

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Cocoa

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

-1x stdv

-2x stdv

1x stdv

2x stdv

5 Yr Average

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

250

350

450

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Corn

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/bu.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Soybean Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/lb.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-20

Sugar


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

8

8

9

9

10

10

11

11

12

12

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Soybeans


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

3

4

4

5

5

6

6

7

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Wheat


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-20

Coffee


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Cotton


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average


Energy



Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

6Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. All commodity futures price data is denominated in

USD unless otherwise indicated. *Brent average of net positions from January 2011 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then.


0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Heating Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Natural Gas

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MMBtu)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Brent Oil

ICE managed money net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

30

50

70

90

110

130

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Gasoline

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USd/gal.)

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1x stdv

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-20

WTI Oil

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Industrial Metals





7Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. LME non-commercial net positions from 30 January

2018 post MIFID II data and respective graphs represent daily data. All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-18

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-2

0

Copper (LME)

LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT)

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-20

Zinc


1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-18

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-2

0

Lead


9,800

10,800

11,800

12,800

13,800

14,800

15,800

16,800

17,800

18,800

-14

-9

-4

1

6

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

51

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-2

0

Nickel


1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-18

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-20

Aluminum


1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-20

Copper (COMEX)


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

12,500

13,500

14,500

15,500

16,500

17,500

18,500

19,500

20,500

21,500

22,500

0

5

10

15

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oc

t-18

No

v-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-2

0

Tin


Precious Metals



Livestock



8Note: positioning in '000 contracts. Standard deviation based on 5 year average CFTC non-commercial net positioning. respective graphs represent daily data. All

commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-20

Lean Hogs


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-17

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-20

Live Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-20

Feeder Cattle


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

10

17

24

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-18

Ju

l-18

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Silver

CFTC non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/t oz.)

1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Ap

r-15

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ju

l-19

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Gold


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

300

800

1,300

1,800

2,300

2,800

-2

3

8

13

18

23

28

33

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-16

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-19

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Palladium


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

550

750

950

1,150

1,350

1,550

1,750

1,950

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-15

Oc

t-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ju

l-1

6

Oc

t-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-17

Oc

t-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oc

t-18

Ja

n-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ju

l-1

9

Oc

t-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Platinum


1x stdv

-1x stdv

2x stdv

-2x stdv

5 Yr Average

Agriculture

Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree

Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: USDA, Bloomberg,WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

·Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: USDA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

9

Inventories

Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2017/2018 estimates.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Corn - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019

% chg in projections vs.

previous = 2.0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Coffee - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019

% chg in projections

vs. previous = 0.0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Cotton - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019


vs. previous = 14.7%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybeans - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019

% chg in projections vs. previous = 4.4%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybeans - Ending StocksAnnual data in , from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections vs. previous = 3.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Coffee - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln bags (60 kg), from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections

vs. previous = 0.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

83

/84

85

/86

87/8

8

89/9

0

91/9

2

93/9

4

95/9

6

97/9

8

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05/0

6

07/0

8

09/1

0

11/1

2

13/1

4

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Cotton - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln 480 lb Bales, from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections vs.

previous = 11.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Corn - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2019

chg in projections

vs. previous = 5.4




Source: International Cocoa Organisation, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

10Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2018/2019 estimates.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Wheat - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019


previous = 2.3%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

96

/97

97

/98

98

/99

99

/00

00

/01

01

/02

02

/03

03

/04

04

/05

05

/06

06

/07

07

/08

08

/09

09

/10

10

/11

11

/12

12

/13

13

/14

14

/15

15

/16

16

/17

17

/18

18

/19

19

/20

Sugar - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1998 to 2019


vs. previous = 0%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybean Oil - Stock to UseAnnual data in %, from 1980 to 2019


previous = 23.7%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Wheat - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln tons, from 1980 to 2019


previous = 4.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Sugar - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2019


previous = -11.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

83

/84

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Soybean Oil - Ending StocksAnnual data in mln Metric Tons, from 1980 to 2019


previous = 0.7

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

Cocoa - InventoryAnnual data in '000 metric tons, from 1981 to 2019

Industrial Metals


Source: LME, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: LME, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Livestock


11Note: Ending stocks, inventories and stock to use data from the USDA are annual with monthly update of 2018/2019 estimates.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-2

0

Tin Inventory

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes) SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data in '000 MT, from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Lead Inventory

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Daily data, from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oc

t-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Fe

b-2

0

Ma

r-20

Nickel InventoryDaily data in '000 MT, from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

40

90

140

190

240

290

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 19

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Feb

20

Ma

r 2

0

Zinc Inventory



0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Aluminum Inventory



80

180

280

380

480

580

680

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 19

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Feb

20

Ma

r 20

SHFE Inventory (in '000 tonnes) COMEX Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

LME Inventory (in '000 tonnes)

Copper InventoryDaily data, from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

85/8

6

87/8

8

89/9

0

91

/92

93

/94

95/9

6

97/9

8

99/0

0

01/0

2

03

/04

05

/06

07/0

8

09/1

0

11/1

2

13

/14

15

/16

17/1

8

19/2

0

Lean Hogs InventoryAnnual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2019

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

85

/86

87

/88

89

/90

91

/92

93

/94

95

/96

97

/98

99

/00

01

/02

03

/04

05

/06

07

/08

09

/10

11

/12

13

/14

15

/16

17

/18

19

/20

Live Cattle InventoryAnnual data in mln Heads, from 1980 to 2019

Energy

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: IEA, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

Source: DOE, Bloomberg, WisdomTree

12Note: "Oil - OECD Inventory" represents OECD industry stocks and is reported with a 2 month lag.


300

350

400

450

500

550

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

US Oil Inventory

5Yr Average +/-1 stdev 2019 2020

Weekly data in mln barrels, from Apr 15 to Apr 20

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Gasoline Inventory



500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951

Natural Gas Inventory


Weekly data in billion cubic feet, from Apr 15 to Apr 20

6

11

16

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Heating Oil Inventory



280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

OECD Europe Oil Industry Inventory


Monthly data in mln barrels, from Jan 15 to Jan 20

Agriculture




·


13

Commodities Front Month Futures and

Trading Volumes

Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Cocoa Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) 200 dma (RHS)

Daily data in USD/MT, from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Corn Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/bu., from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

$0.20

$0.22

$0.24

$0.26

$0.28

$0.30

$0.32

$0.34

$0.36

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Soybean Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/lb., from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

$0.08

$0.09

$0.10

$0.11

$0.12

$0.13

$0.14

$0.15

$0.16

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Sugar Front Month Futures Price



$0.7

$0.8

$0.9

$1.0

$1.1

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Coffee Front Month Futures Price



$0.50

$0.55

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

-150

350

850

1,350

1,850

2,350

2,850

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Cotton Front Month Futures Price



$7.0

$7.5

$8.0

$8.5

$9.0

$9.5

$10.0

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Soybeans Front Month Futures Price



$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

$6.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Wheat Front Month Futures Price



Energy




Carbon


14Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$15

$25

$35

$45

$55

$65

$75

$85

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Brent Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

$1.4

$1.6

$1.8

$2.0

$2.2

$2.4

$2.6

$2.8

$3.0

$3.2

$3.4

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Natural Gas Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/MMBtu, from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

$0.5

$0.7

$0.9

$1.1

$1.3

$1.5

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

-$1,000

$4,000

$9,000

$14,000

$19,000

$24,000

$29,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

3.4 €

8.4 €

13.4 €

18.4 €

23.4 €

28.4 €

€0

€200

€400

€600

€800

€1,000

€1,200

€1,400

€1,600

€1,800

€2,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Carbon Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in EUR/MT, from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

-$50

-$30

-$10

$10

$30

$50

$70

-$150,000

-$100,000

-$50,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

WTI Oil Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/bbl., from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

$0.2

$0.7

$1.2

$1.7

$2.2

$2.7

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000A

pr

19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Gasoline Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USd/gal., from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

Industrial Metals







$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

-$4,000

$1,000

$6,000

$11,000

$16,000

$21,000

$26,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Aluminum Front Month Futures Price



$1,700

$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

$3,100

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Zinc Front Month Futures Price



$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Nickel Front Month Futures Price



$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

$2.7

$2.9

$3.1

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 19

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 2

0

Ap

r 20

Copper (COMEX) Front Month Futures Price



$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$22,000

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Tin Front Month Futures Price



$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Lead Front Month Futures Price



$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

$6,500

$7,000

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000A

pr

19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Copper (LME) Front Month Futures Price

Volume ($mn) 200 dma (RHS) 50 dma (RHS) Prices (RHS)


Precious Metals



Livestock





$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Feeder Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$0.32

$0.42

$0.52

$0.62

$0.72

$0.82

$0.92

$1.02

$200

$700

$1,200

$1,700

$2,200

$2,700

$3,200

$3,700

$4,200

$4,700

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Lean Hogs Front Month Futures Price



$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Platinum Front Month Futures Price


Daily data in USD/t oz., from 24 Apr 19 to 24 Apr 20

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Jul 1

9

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Gold Front Month Futures Price



$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Live Cattle Front Month Futures Price



$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Jun

19

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Jan

20

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Palladium Front Month Futures Price



$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

Ap

r 19

Ma

y 1

9

Ju

n 1

9

Ju

l 19

Au

g 1

9

Se

p 1

9

Oc

t 1

9

No

v 1

9

De

c 1

9

Ja

n 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Ma

r 20

Ap

r 20

Silver Front Month Futures Price



Agriculture




·Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree

17

Futures Curves

Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

$2,500

$2,600

$2,700

$2,800

$2,900

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10Maturity (Month)

Cocoa Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/MT

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Coffee Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/lb.

$3.1

$3.3

$3.5

$3.7

$3.9

$4.1

$4.3

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Corn Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/bu.

$0.50

$0.55

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Cotton Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/lb.

$0.200

$0.220

$0.240

$0.260

$0.280

$0.300

$0.320

$0.340

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

Maturity (Month)

Soybean Oil Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/lb.

$8.1

$8.3

$8.5

$8.7

$8.9

$9.1

$9.3

$9.5

$9.7

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

Maturity (Month)

Soybeans Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/bu.

$0.090

$0.100

$0.110

$0.120

$0.130

$0.140

$0.150

$0.160

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

Maturity (Month)

Sugar Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/lb.

$4.5

$4.7

$4.9

$5.1

$5.3

$5.5

$5.7

$5.9

$6.1

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

Maturity (Month)

Wheat Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/bu.

Energy




Carbon


18Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.


$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Brent Oil Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/bbl.

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

WTI Oil Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/bbl.

$1.5

$1.7

$1.9

$2.1

$2.3

$2.5

$2.7

$2.9

$3.1

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Natural Gas Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/MMBtu

$0.35

$0.55

$0.75

$0.95

$1.15

$1.35

$1.55

$1.75

$1.95

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M1

1

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M3

3

M3

5

Maturity (Month)

Gasoline Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/gal.

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Heating Oil Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/gal.

14.0 €

16.0 €

18.0 €

20.0 €

22.0 €

24.0 €

26.0 €

28.0 €

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

M22

M23

Maturity (Month)

Carbon Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

EUR/MT

Industrial Metals







$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Aluminum Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/MT

$1,450

$1,550

$1,650

$1,750

$1,850

$1,950

$2,050

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Lead Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/MT

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

$2.80

$2.90

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M1

0

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

M21

M22

M23

M24

M25

Maturity (Month)

Copper (COMEX) Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/lb.

$4,500

$4,700

$4,900

$5,100

$5,300

$5,500

$5,700

$5,900

$6,100

$6,300

$6,500M

1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Copper (LME) Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/MT

$14,000

$14,500

$15,000

$15,500

$16,000

$16,500

$17,000

$17,500

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

Maturity (Month)

Tin Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/MT

$10,500

$11,300

$12,100

$12,900

$13,700

$14,500

$15,300

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Nickel Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/MT

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

M1

M3

M5

M7

M9

M11

M13

M15

M17

M19

M21

M23

M25

M27

M29

M31

M33

M35

Maturity (Month)

Zinc Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/MT

Precious Metals



Livestock





$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

$18.0

$20.0

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

Maturity (Month)

Silver Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/t oz.

$1,430

$1,480

$1,530

$1,580

$1,630

$1,680

$1,730

$1,780

$1,830

$1,880

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

M13

M14

M15

M16

M17

M18

M19

M20

Maturity (Month)

Gold Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/t oz.

$550

$650

$750

$850

$950

$1,050

$1,150

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Platinum Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/t oz.

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

$2,300

$2,400

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5Maturity (Month)

Palladium Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USD/t oz.

$0.35

$0.45

$0.55

$0.65

$0.75

$0.85

$0.95

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

M9

M10

M11

M12

Maturity (Month)

Lean Hogs Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/lb.

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)

Live Cattle Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/lb.

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8Maturity (Month)

Feeder Cattle Futures

24 Apr 20 16 Apr 20 24 Mar 20 24 Jan 20

USd/lb.

C

Commodity Monthly Matrix Explained

CALENDAR

WisdomTree - Recent Blogs

30-Apr-20 Professor Siegel Market Update on Coronavirus with Professor Siegel

29-Apr-20 Pierre Debru Defensive Assets: Lessons to be learnt from an eventful first quarter

22-Apr-20 Wood Mackenzie Major investment in battery production needed to meet climate goals

21-Apr-20 Nitesh Shah Nymex WTI front month futures trade negative

14-Apr-20 Nitesh Shah OPEC+ reaches a historic deal: but is it enough?

08-Apr-20 Mobeen Tahir Time for gold to shine

02-Apr-20 Aneeka Gupta Chinese equities appear safest amidst the COVID storm

01-Apr-20 Pierre Debru Defensive Assets: The key to success is often the ability to adapt

01-Apr-20 WisdomTree Market Update on the Coronavirus with Professor Siegel

30-Mar-20 Christopher Gannatti Jumping to the Cloud

27-Mar-20 Nitesh Shah An age of unprecedented oil volatility

25-Mar-20 Pierre Debru Defensive Assets: It is easier not to lose money than to win it back

24-Mar-20 Mobeen Tahir What next for markets?

WisdomTree - Past Issues of Commodity Monthly Monitor

Feb - Mar 2020 Research Team Commodities in the grip of COVID-19

Jan - Feb 2020 Research Team Has the Black Swan landed ?

Dec- Jan 2020 Research Team Commodities moving beyond trade and geopolitics

Oct - Nov 2019 Research Team Commodities wait while equities rally

Sep - Oct 2019 Research Team Phase1 of trade deal bifurcates commodity markets

The research notes are for qualified investors only.

Key Reports

Current Next release

09-Apr-20 12-May-20 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

07-Apr-20 12-May-20 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

16-Apr-20 13-May-20 OPEC OPEC Oil Market Report

15-Apr-20 14-May-20 IEA IEA Oil Market Report

DISCLAIMER

Important Information

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For professional clients only. The information contained in this document is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or shares. This document should not

be used as the basis for any investment decision. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Any

decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the appropriate prospectus and after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice.

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Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back testing is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of

such strategy would have been. However, back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and

should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Score based on unweighted sum of four fundamental/technical measures detailed below with each measure awarded a possible score of -1, 0, or 1

depending on whether variable is viewed as fundamentally negative, neutral or positive. Score ranging from -4 to +4. For commodities where data is not

available or not relevant, scores are calculated on remaining variables and adjusted to the -4 to +4 scale. The score matrix is designed to highlight

significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance.

The four fundamental/technical measures are as follow:

- price vs. 200 days moving average: 1 when price is above 200dma and return is positive, -1 when price is below 200dma and return is negative, 0

otherwise

- % change in net positioning over the past month: 1 when % change is positive, -1 when % change is negative, 0 when no change

- % change in inventory level over the past 3 months: 1 when % is negative, -1 when % is positive, 0 when no change

- roll yield between the front and second month futures contracts: 1 when in backwardation, -1 when in contango, 0 when no change

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-04-30/market-update-on-coronavirus-with-professor-siegel

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-04-29/defensive-assets-lessons-to-be-learnt-from-an-eventful-first-quarter

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-04-22/major-investment-in-battery-production-needed-to-meet-climate-goals

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-04-21/nymex-wti-front-month-futures-trade-negative

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-04-14/opec-reaches-a-historic-deal-but-is-it-enough

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-04-08/time-for-gold-to-shine

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-04-02/chinese-equities-appear-safest-amidst-the-covid-storm

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-04-01/defensive-assets-the-key-to-success-is-often-the-ability-to-adapt

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-04-01/market-update-on-the-coronavirus-with-professor-siegel

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-03-30/jumping-to-the-cloud

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-03-27/an-age-of-unprecedented-oil-volatility

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-03-25/defensive-assets-it-is-easier-not-to-lose-money-than-to-win-it-back

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2020-03-24/what-next-for-markets

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2020,-d-,03_commodity-monthly-monitor-final.pdf

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2020,-d-,02_commodity-monthly-monitor-final.pdf

https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/commodity-monthly-monitor/2020,-d-,01_commodity-monthly-monitor.pdf



https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0919.pdf

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR_september_2015.pdf

http://omrpublic.iea.org/

·

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