Commodities Weekly Tracker, 29th January, 2013

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    Commodities & Currencies

    Weekly Tracker

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    ContentsReturns

    Non Agri Commodities Currencies

    Agri Commodities

    Non-Agri Commodities

    Gold

    Silver

    Copper Crude Oil

    Currencies DX, Euro, INR

    Agri Commodities

    Chana

    Black Pepper Turmeric

    Jeera

    Soybean

    Refine Soy Oil & CPO

    Sugar

    Kapas

    Monday | January 28, 2013

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    *Weekly Performance for February contract; Turmeric and Kapas - April 2013 contract, Jeera and Chilli- March contract, Mentha- January.

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Monday | January 28, 2013

    GoldWeekly Price Performance

    Spot gold prices declined 1.5 percent week on week. The yellow metal

    touched a weekly low of $1,655.39/oz and closed at $ 1658.31 per ounce on

    Friday. On the MCX, Gold February contract ended 0.9 percent lower tracing

    weakness in the spot gold prices along with appreciation in the rupee. Gold

    prices on the MCX closed at Rs. 30,331/10 gms on Friday after touching a

    weekly low of Rs. 30,258/ 10gms.

    Factors that influenced gold prices

    Gold prices witnessed selling pressure on the back of liquidation by the

    market participants observing signs of global recovery which led to lower

    appetite towards the safe haven demand. Further, favorable data from the

    US also pushed prices lower. However, weakness in the DX cushioned fall in

    the gold prices.

    Postponement of debt ceiling issue by the US law makers till May 19, 2013

    along with positive sentiments created after European Central Bank said

    that banks in the region might be able to re-pay more of its emergency three

    year loans in the coming week. Thus, the optimism that the Euro zone debt

    crisis is gradually being curtailed supported positive sentiments.

    Outlook

    In the coming week, we expect gold prices to witness selling pressure dueto positive data from major nations indicating recovery and thereby decline

    in the demand for the safe haven demand for the yellow metal. However,

    sharp fall in the prices are expected to be capped due to weakness in the

    DX. In the domestic markets appreciation in the Indian rupee might exert

    downside pressure on the gold prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Gold: Support $1645/1,625 Resistance $1,680/1695.(CMP:$1661.7/oz )

    Sell MCX Gold February between 30500-30530, SL-30740, Target -30180

    (CMP: 30,391 per 10 gms )

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    SilverWeekly Price Performance

    Spot silver fell 2.2 percent week on week. The white metal touched a weekly

    low of $ 31.09/oz and closed at $ 31.14 per oz on Friday.

    In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices fell 1.9 percent and closed at Rs.

    58,250/kg on Friday and touched a weekly low of Rs. 59,436/ kg. Fall in the

    spot silver prices along with appreciation in the Indian rupee exerted downside

    pressure on silver prices on MCX.

    Factors that influenced silver prices

    Silver prices remained firm in the early part of the week due to firmness in the

    industrial metals along with weakness in the DX. Increase in the holdings in the

    ishares silver trust also supported an upside in the silver prices. However, gains

    in the white metal were erased tracing sharp fall in the spot gold prices. Downward revision of global growth by the International Monetary Fund to 3.5

    percent from 3.6 percent forecasted in the month of October 2012 also pushed

    prices of silver downside.

    Holdings in the ishares silver trust witnessed sell off and stood at 10,468.76

    tonnes a decline of 2.5 percent as against 10,734.99 tonnes as on January 18 th

    2013.

    Outlook Silver prices in the coming week is expected to trade firm on the back of

    favorable data from the major consuming nations. Weakness in the DX is also

    expected to act as a supportive factor for the silver prices. However, sharp

    gains might be capped due to decline in the spot gold prices.

    In the domestic markets appreciation in the Rupee might exert downside

    pressure on the MCX Silver prices.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Silver : Support $30.70/30.40 Resistance $31.60/32.10 (CMP: 31.26)

    Sell MCX Silver March between 58900-59000, SL 60000, Target 57400 (CMP:

    58,333)

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    CopperWeekly Price Performance

    Copper prices declined 0.4 percent in the last week. Copper prices on LME

    touched a weekly low of $8,010 per tonne and closed at $8,042 per tonne on

    Friday.

    In the domestic markets MCX copper fell 0.14 percent and closed at Rs. 436.6 per

    kg on Friday. Weakness in the international copper prices along with appreciation

    in the rupee led prices to remain in the negative territory in the last week.

    Copper Inventories

    LME Copper inventories decreased by 0.8 percent during last week and stood at

    342,900 tonnes on Friday as against 345,525 tonnes on 18th January 2013.

    Copper inventories at warehouse monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange

    declined by 1.7 percent to 2,05,120 tn in the w/e 25th

    January, 2013.Factors that influenced copper prices

    Dull appetite by the Chinese buyers due to the ongoing Lunar New Year period.

    Rise in the output at Chiles Escondida, the largest copper mine jumped 31

    percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

    However, favorable data from the major consuming nation, weakness in the DX,

    decline in the LME inventories week on week cushioned fall in the copper prices.

    Outlook

    Copper prices in the coming week is expected to trade with lower due to slowbuying by the China along with rise in the output in the worlds largest mine.

    However, weakness in the DX along with signs of recovery at the major

    consuming nations is expected to cushion fall in the copper prices.

    In the domestic markets appreciation in the Indian Rupee will exert downside

    pressure on the copper prices on MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    LME Copper: Support $8150/8000 Resistance $8400/8550 (CMP: $8050)

    Sell MCX COPPER Feb between 443 445, SL - 453, Target 432 / 430 (CMP:

    437.55)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

    Crude OilWeekly Price Performance

    On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices gained 0.3 percent.

    On the domestic bourses, prices rose by 0.8 percent and closed at Rs.5,194/bblon Friday after touching a weekly high of Rs.5,212/bbl.

    US Energy Department Facts and Figures

    As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories rose

    more than expected by 2.8 million barrels to 363.10 million barrels for the week

    ending on 18th January 2012.

    Gasoline stocks declined by 1.7 million barrels to 233.30 million barrels and

    whereas distillate stockpiles gained by 0.5 million barrels to 132.90 million

    barrels for the last week.

    Factors that influenced crude oil prices Favorable economic data from Euro Zone and US which lead to expectations of

    rise in demand for the fuel.

    Additionally, weakness in the DX along with upbeat global market sentiments

    also acted as a positive factor for the crude oil prices.

    However, sharp upside in the crude oil prices was capped on account of rise in

    US crude oil inventories coupled with International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting

    the global growth forecast to 3.5 percent for the current year from earlier

    estimates of 3.6 percent in October 2012.

    Outlook

    Crude oil prices are expected to trade with downward bias during the week on

    the back of rising crude oil inventories coupled with expectations of unfavorable

    economic data. US Advance GDP along with consumer confidence is forecasted

    to grow at slow pace which will affect demand for the fuel.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Nymex Crude Oil: Support: $93.70/95 Resistance $97/97.90 (CMP: 95.92)

    75.0

    80.0

    85.0

    90.0

    95.0

    100.0

    105.0

    110.0

    4,400

    4,5004,6004,700

    4,8004,9005,000

    5,1005,2005,3005,400

    5,5005,600

    Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

    M CX crude oi l (Rs/ bbl) NY MEX Crude Oi l ($ /bbl)

    320

    330

    340

    350

    360

    370

    380

    390

    Crude Oil Invento ries (mn barrels)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

    DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

    US Dollar Index (DX) declined 0.4 percent week on week. The index settled at 79.82

    levels on Friday after touching a low of 79.71 levels in last week. The Indian Rupee

    depreciated 0.1 percent on weekly basis.Factors that influenced movement in the DX

    The index settled lower due to signs of recovery in the major nations indicating

    growth and thereby decline in the demand for the low yielding currency. Apart from

    this favorable data from the US, postponement of the US debt ceiling issue and

    positive earnings of most of companies added to the downside pressure on the index.

    However, downward revision of the growth forecast of the world by the IMF to 3.5

    percent from earlier forecast of 3.6 percent cause risk aversion amongst market

    participants and erased losses in the index.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee Rise in the imports duty in gold by the government of India, an initiative to discourage

    physical buying of gold and reduce the ever rising CAD supported appreciation in the

    currency. The Indian government also relaxed rules for the FIIs. RBI on Thursday,

    January 24, 2013 relaxed some of the rules for FIIs such as buying into debt with

    minimum maturity and holdings in the infrastructure debt for at least one year. This

    also appreciated the currency. It also partially deregulated the diesel prices.

    FII Inflows

    For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 17,298.70 cr as on 24th Jan

    2013. On YTD basis , net capital inflows stood at Rs.17,298.60 cr till 24th Jan 2013.

    Outlook

    We expect rupee to appreciate in the current week on hopes that, the Finance

    Minister might cut the interest rates to spur growth of the nation. Positive data from

    the major economies of the world is showcasing growth thereby investments into the

    nation might witness a rise hereby resulting into appreciation of the currency.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    USD/INR MCX February Support 53.65/53.20 Resistance 54.75/55.30

    US Dollar Index: Support 79.40/79.00 Resistance 80.30/80.80

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

    EuroWeekly Price Performance

    Euro gained 1 percent week on week.

    The currency touched a weekly high of 1.3479 and closed at 1.346 on

    Friday.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

    Favorable data from the Euro region along with positive manufacturing data

    from Germany which indicated that the economy is on the path of recovery.

    European Central Bank said that banks in the region might be able to re-pay

    more of its emergency three year loans in the coming week. Around 278

    financial institutions are likely to return 137.2 billion euros ($184.4 billion)

    on January 30, 2013 the first opportunity for early repayment of the initial

    three-year loan. Weakness in the DX also pushed the currency upwards.

    News

    German Ifo Business Climate rose to 104.2 levels in the month of January

    2013 as against 102.4 levels in December.

    Belgium NBB Business Climate declined to -13.2 levels in January as against -

    11.8 in December.

    German Flash Manufacturing PMI for the month of January increased to

    48.8 levels as compared to 46 levels in December.

    Spanish Unemployment Rate grew to 26 percent in last quarter of 2012 as

    against 25 percent in third quarter.

    Outlook

    We expect the Euro to trade with a positive bias on signs of recovery in the

    nation and thereby hopes of curtailing the debt crisis of the region.

    Repayment of the loans taken by the banks is also showcasing growth of the

    region. Weakness in the DX is also expected to add to the gains in Euro.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.3240/1.3040 Resistance 1.3570/1.3800

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    Chana

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Chana February contract extended the gains of the previous session and settled

    1.8% higher w-o-w on concerns over crop yield. Also , there are reports thatlate sowing may delay harvesting of the chana crop in Rajasthan.

    Weather to play a crucial role in the coming weeks

    Although the Farm ministry has targeted higher Rabi pulses output, particularly

    Chana at 7.9 mn tn vs 7.5 mn tn in previous year, the ultimate output would

    depend on the weather conditions in major growing belts.

    There were reports of extreme cold winters in Rajasthan and even rains in some

    parts in the last two weeks. Thus, this may hamper chana yield to some extent.

    Chana acreage up by 3.4% , But pulses sowing lags

    Total pulses acreage as on 18th Jan 2013 stood at 1142.33 lakh ha, down by

    0.6% yoy. As on 11th Jan 2013, pulses acreage was up by 0.4%. Chana sowing is

    almost complete and acreage so far is at 91.9 lakh ha, up by 3.4% as on 18th Jan.

    Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 lakh ha,

    In Maharashtra, Chana acreage is up at 10.92 lk ha as on 11 Jan 2013 vs normal

    area of 10.6 lk ha and 2012 area of 7.04 lakh ha. (Source: State farm dept)

    Arrivals in Maharasthra commenced

    Chana harvesting is going on in Karnataka & Andhra Pradesh and has

    commenced in some parts of Maharashtra too. Harvesting in MP, the largestChana producing belt shall commence in February 2012 while in Rajasthan

    harvesting may get delay.

    Outlook

    Chana futures may extend the gains of the previous week on concerns of over

    crop yield. However, sharp upside may be capped as harvesting shall gain

    momentum in the coming weeks.

    Weekly Strategy

    Buy NCDEX CHANA April between 3560-3590, SL -3485, Target - 3700 / 3720

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    Black Pepper

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Pepper Futures traded on a positive note for the fourth consecutive week on back

    of low stocks in the domestic markets. Strong winter demand coupled withdemand from the upcountry markets also supported the prices. The Food Safety

    and Standards Authority of India sealed the pepper stored in six warehouses at

    Kochi of about 8,000 tonnes leaving no stocks on the exchange warehouses. The

    Spot as well as the Futures settled 2.45% and 4.14% higher w-o-w.

    Indian Pepper is being offered at $8,100/tn (c&f, Europe). A sharp appreciation in

    the Rupee has pushed up Indian pepper prices. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia

    Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Brazil is quoted at $6,600/tn.

    Averages daily arrivals stood at 8 tn while offtakes stood at 7 tn last week.

    Expectations of higher output in 2012-13 According to market sources, Pepper production is expected around 63,000 tn in

    2013, while the IPC projects Indias 2013 availability at 70,000 tn.

    Global updates

    Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in

    2011. Vietnam pepper exports during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt. Pepper

    production from Vietnam decreased to 1 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011.

    Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against

    32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.

    Outlook

    Pepper Futures may correct earlier this week as traders may book profits at

    higher levels. However, prices may recover from lower levels due to thin supplies

    in the domestic markets. There are no valid stocks available on the exchange as

    the after Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity

    of about 8,000 tn pepper due to quality issues. Higher output expectations

    coupled with weak export demand for Indian pepper may pressurize prices.

    Weekly Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Feb Pepper between 37000-37100, SL- 35700, Tgt-38940/39210 .

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Turmeric

    Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Turmeric Futures corrected for the third consecutive week on the back of huge

    carryover stocks. Prices had gained earlier due to buying by the stockists. Lower

    output expectations also kept the prices firm. Sowing is reported to be 30-35%

    lower compared to last year.

    The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.

    Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode.

    According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

    Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the Futures

    settled 2.35% and 2.67% lower w-o-w.

    Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

    Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon aswell as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

    October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

    as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

    Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

    Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50-55 lakh bags. Production

    in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tns.

    Outlook

    Turmeric prices may correct from higher levels in the initial part of the week as

    huge carryover stocks are expected to pressurize prices. Commencement of

    harvest of the early crop may keep prices under downside pressure. However, the

    downside is expected to be limited as demand from stockists as well as North

    India is expected to support prices at lower levels. Traders expect export orders

    also to start in the coming weeks. Arrivals of good quality crop may also boost

    prices.

    Weekly Strategy Sell NCDEX April Turmeric between 6250-6350, SL-6650, Target 5950/5750.

    Monday | January 28, 2013

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Jeera

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Jeera Futures corrected last week on back of higher sowing data. Sowing in

    Gujarat, the major jeera growing state was reported at 3.244 lakh ha till Jan 2013.

    Last three years average sowing is around 3.189 lk ha. Total stocks are reported

    at around 5-6 lk bags.

    The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.39% and 1.79 lower w-o-w.

    Effect of higher production offset by higher exports

    Indias 2012 Jeera output is estimated at 40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher than

    29 lakh bags in 2011, a rise of 37.9%. However, increase in the exports due to

    supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the

    prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

    Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target

    for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011.

    According to market sources, about 75% of export targets have been achieved.

    Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

    between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

    have stopped shipments. There are some export enquiries at lower levels.

    International Scenario

    According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while

    production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

    around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

    Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,925/tn (c&f).

    Outlook

    Jeera is expected to trade downwards on account of higher sowing coupled with

    subdued demand. However, sharp downside may be limited as exporters may buy

    at lower levels. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at such low prices.

    Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX March Jeera between 13850-13950, SL-14800., Target 12640/12460.

    Monday | January 28, 2013

    0

    1

    1

    2

    2

    3

    3

    Production,

    in

    LakhT

    onnes

    Production of Jeera in India

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Soybean

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    NCDEX Soybean settled 0.54% higher on dwindling supplies in the domestic markets

    coupled with firmness in the international markets. CBOT soybean settled 0.82%

    higher on concerns over dry weather conditions in Argentina.

    Rabi oilseed planting 2.8 percent up as on 18h Jan

    Rabi oilseeds sowing which was up by 3.5% as on Jan 11th, is now up by 2.2% at 8.53

    mn ha. The sowing of mustard, is up 2.8% at 6.7 mn ha.

    Oil World cuts Argentine 2013 soybean crop forecast, ups Brazil

    Oil World forecasts Argentinas 2012-13 harvest at 52.0 mn tn, down from 53 mn tn

    in December 2012, however, it is still higher compared with 39 mn tn produced in

    2011-12 season.

    Forecast of Brazils 2013 crop to 81.5 million tonnes from 81.0 mn tn forecast inDecember and up from 66.8 mn tn Brazil harvested in early 2012

    Higher global stocks to keep international prices under downside pressure

    Global soybean production is projected at 269.4 mn tn , up 1.7 mn with gains in the

    United States and Brazil only partly offset by a lower projection for Argentina. The

    Brazil soybean crop is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 82.5 million reflecting

    record area and improving yield prospects.

    The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54 million tons, down 1 mn from the

    previous forecast mainly due to lower projected area resulting from excessive

    moisture throughout much of the central growing area.

    Outlook

    Soybean prices may extend the gains of the previous week as supplies are dwindling

    in the domestic markets. However, no major upside is expected as international

    markets may remain on the downside on expectations of higher south American

    output.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Soybean Feb between 3190-3210, SL -3100, Target - 3340 / 3360

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    Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    Mixed sentiments prevailed across oil complex last week on account of

    changes in the import duty and tariff structure of crude and refined palm oilin the domestic markets. CPO prices at MCX and at BMD settled 0.3% and

    1.01% lower respectively. AT NCDEX, Feb soy oil futures settled 0.8% higher

    while CBOT soy oil settled 0.8% lower w-o-w.

    Global Scenario

    Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-25 fell 14.6 percent to

    1,104,890 tonnes compared with 1,293,765 tonnes shipped during Dec. 1-25.

    Despite reducing export duty, Malaysian palm oil exports remained weak

    leading to downside pressure on the prices.

    Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, will increase its export tax forcrude palm oil to 9% for February from 7.5% in the previous month

    Domestic Scenario

    India raised the base import price of crude palm oil (CPO) by nearly 80

    percent to $802 per tn as part of efforts to curb overseas purchases and

    protect domestic oilseed farmers. The government also slapped a 2.5%

    import tax on crude vegetable oils.

    The government also set the base import price for crude soy oil at $1,190 per

    tonnes, up from $580 per tn. India's palm oil imports rose 27.4% on month at

    783,091 tn in December.

    To reduce imports and protect domestic industries, govt lifted duty on crude

    palm oil from 0 % to 2.5 % and also stated that the base import price on crude

    palm oil which is currently $447 per ton may be reviewed fortnightly. Increase

    in duty may reduce imports and support the upside in the prices.

    Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

    Buy NCDEX Refined Soya Oil Feb between 713-718, SL -700, Target - 737/ 740

    Sell MCX CPO Feb between 443-447, SL -460, Target - 424 / 421

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    Sugar

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    After showing some signs of recovery in the previous week, sugar futures declined

    2 percent during the last week on the back of sufficient supplies in the domestic

    markets. Liffe Sugar futures declined further by 1.1% w-o-w on account of globalsugar glut in the global markets.

    Sugar output projected at 243 lakh tonne for 2012-13

    The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) today revised upward its production

    estimate for the 201213 marketing year to 243 lakh tn, up from its previous

    estimates of 240 lakh tonnes.

    During October 2012 till January 15 , 2012, the country has already produced 108

    lakh tonne of sugar against 105 lakh tonne in the year-ago period.

    Cane planting for 2013-14 down in key producing states Drought in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka has hurt fresh sugarcane planting,

    which may affect cane availability for sugar year 2013-14 starting October.

    Cane planting in Maharashtra and Karnataka which takes place during November

    to February, is hit by deficient rains. Even the adsali planting or the 18-month

    crop, which gets planted by August, has been lower by about a third in

    Maharashtra this year.

    Brazil cane crush almost complete at 531.35 mln T

    2012-13 Brazilian cane crush was at 531.35 mn tn as of Dec. 31, up from 491.16

    mn tn crushed year ago. The 2013/14 crush is likely surpass the current one.

    Outlook

    Sugar prices are expected to consolidate in the current week. No major downside

    is expected as prices are trading at very low levels and government will take

    some measure to control prices, which are below the cost of production levels.

    However, upside will also be capped on account of sufficient supplies in the

    domestic markets.

    Strategy

    Sell NCDEX SUGAR Feb between 3210-3230, SL -3275, Target - 3145 / 3130

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    Kapas/Cotton

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | January 28, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Kapas futures declined sharply in the initial part of the last week on account of

    higher supplies and comparatively lower demand from the millers. However, pricesrecovered on Thursday on account of short coverings and settled 1.3% lower w-o-w.

    ICE Cotton futures and Cotton prices hit seven-month highs and gained 2.5% on

    expectations of robust demand from China and expected lower US Cotton crop

    acreage for 2012-13 season.

    Cotton Advisory Board revised down production estimates

    The Cotton Advisory Board on Wednesday, has estimated cotton production this

    season (Oct 2012 to Sep 2013) at 330 lakh bales against the previous estimates in

    October at 334 lakh bales. However, opening stocks are revised upward. exports

    and domestic consumption has been revised upward to 253 and 80 lakh balesrespectively from 250 and 70 lakh bales estimated earlier. As on January 9 this year,

    nearly 38 lakh bales were registered for exports.

    US Cotton acreage to shift to grains in 2013

    According to Reuters survey, the average plantings forecast for the world's third-

    largest producer was 10.1 mn acres, which would be down 18%from last year.

    Chinese imports to increase

    China has finalized selling of cotton reserves to meet demand from domestic textile

    companies and may need to import more cotton over the coming weeks to replenish

    stockpiles. Imports rose 75 percent in December from a month earlier.

    Outlook

    Kapas prices may remain under downside pressure on account of sufficient supplies

    in the domestic markets to meet the consumption and export demand. However,

    sharp fall may be capped amidst firm international markets and hoarding by the

    stockiest at lower price levels.

    Strategy

    Sell NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 915-920, SL -970, Target - 845 / 835 Source: Reuters * 2013 figs are as per Reuters survey

  • 7/29/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 29th January, 2013

    20/20

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