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EIA Quality Mark Article Assessing the vulnerability of UK priority habitats to climate change using Natural England’s National Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Model There can be little doubt that the climate in the UK is changing. In some cases, this can be linked to anthropogenic impacts, in other cases trends may be forming but causes are undetermined. Indeed, the UK exhibits a temperate maritime climate, which is characteristically variable and does not lend itself well to statistical analysis of climate trends. However, we can deal in some certainty. As documented by Moorcroft and Speakman (2015 1 ) we know that: Average temperatures 1 have increased by nearly 1°C since the 1980s. All of the top ten warmest years for the UK have occurred since 1990. This includes 2014, which was the warmest year on record in the UK; Sea level around the UK rose by about 1- 2mm/year during the 20th century, with the rate of rise varying from decade to decade and increasing to over 3mm/year in the past decade. Peak sea levels during extreme weather events appear to be rising at a similar rate; and Severe wind events have become more frequent in the past few decades, although it is not clear whether this is part of a long- term trend. But what are the implications of this for the UK’s priority habitats and how do we model these changes to address potential biodiversity impact? In a bid to answer these questions Natural England developed the National Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Model (hereafter NBCCVM). This tool allows users to assess the vulnerability of priority habitats to climate change with a view to building resilience. First things first, it is worth outlining what we describe as priority habitats in the UK. As described by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC 1 ) priority habitats cover a wide range of semi-natural habitat types and are those that were identified as being the most threatened and requiring conservation action under the UK Biodiversity Action Plan (UK BAP). An example of priority habitats in the UK could be coastal saltmarsh or hedgerows perhaps. A total of 65 habitats are defined as priority in the UK. So, whilst we understand that a number of habitats in the UK are considered to be of priority in terms of protection, restoration and rehabilitation, how can we address the potential adverse impacts that climate change may have on these habitats? Within the Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (CIEEM) ‘ In Practice’ publication Sarah Taylor from Natural England (Taylor, 2014 1 ) sought to cast light on the NBCCVM. A process of GIS based spatial assessment was undertaken by local authorities, National Parks, and Natural England themselves to test the NBCCVM. As described by Natural England 1 , the NBCCVM methodology uses a GIS-based 200 x 200m grid to assess areas of priority habitat for their:
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EIA Quality Mark Article
Assessing the vulnerability of UK priority habitats to climate change using Natural England’s National Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Model
There can be little doubt that the climate in the UK is changing. In some cases, this can be linked to anthropogenic impacts, in other cases trends may be forming but causes are undetermined. Indeed, the UK exhibits a temperate maritime climate, which is characteristically variable and does not lend itself well to statistical analysis of climate trends. However, we can deal in some certainty. As documented by Moorcroft and Speakman (20151) we know that:
Average temperatures1 have increased by nearly 1°C since the 1980s. All of the top ten warmest years for the UK have occurred since 1990. This includes 2014, which was the warmest year on record in the UK;
Sea level around the UK rose by about 1-2mm/year during the 20th century, with the rate of rise varying from decade to decade and increasing to over 3mm/year in the past decade. Peak sea levels during extreme weather events appear to be rising at a similar rate; and
Severe wind events have become more frequent in the past few decades, although it is not clear whether this is part of a long-term trend.
But what are the implications of this for the UK’s priority habitats and how do we model these changes to address potential biodiversity impact? In a bid to answer these questions Natural England developed the National Biodiversity Climate Change Vulnerability Model (hereafter NBCCVM).
This tool allows users to assess the vulnerability of priority habitats to climate change with a view to building resilience. First things first, it is worth outlining what we describe as priority habitats in the UK. As described by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC1) priority habitats cover a wide range of semi-natural habitat types and are those that were identified as being the most threatened and requiring conservation action under the UK Biodiversity Action Plan (UK BAP). An example of priority habitats in the UK could be coastal saltmarsh or hedgerows perhaps. A total of 65 habitats are defined as priority in the UK.
So, whilst we understand that a number of habitats in the UK are considered to be of priority in terms of protection, restoration and rehabilitation, how can we address the potential adverse impacts that climate change may have on these habitats? Within the Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (CIEEM) ‘In Practice’ publication Sarah Taylor from Natural England (Taylor, 20141) sought to cast light on the NBCCVM. A process of GIS based spatial assessment was undertaken by local authorities, National Parks, and Natural England themselves to test the NBCCVM.
As described by Natural England1, the NBCCVM methodology uses a GIS-based 200 x 200m grid to assess areas of priority habitat for their:
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Intrinsic Sensitivity to Climate Change; the model assigns high, medium or low sensitivity to direct climate change impacts – reflecting the habitat itself on the basis of expert judgement and scientific literature;
Adaptive capacity; a range of different local factors can increase or decrease the ability of the habitat to adapt to climate change – to reflect this the model includes measures of fragmentation, topographic variation and management and condition; and
Conservation Value; this assigns a relative value to (i) priority habitat only, (ii) priority habitat within a national designation, or (iii) priority habitat within an international designation – with the latter valued highest.
These elements are then combined to produce an overall assessment of vulnerability. Key outputs are maps showing the results for individual and combined metrics and the range of relative vulnerability across the country, giving a visual representation of the areas vulnerable to climate change. Outputs from the model comprised color coded spatial representations of England graphically showing where priority habitats were most vulnerable. This was gleaned from the model determining conservation value, connectivity and intrinsic sensitivity for example, as described in the previous bullet point list. It could equally be applied to other areas of the UK. So; does the NBCCVM methodology work? As further described in the ‘In Practice’ publication (Taylor, 2014) the method has clearly provided value to the private and public sector. The Northern Devon Nature Improvement Area (NIA), Climate Change Adaptation Sub Committee and DEFRA synergies projects have all benefitted from the implementation of this tool.
The NBCCVM was launched some time ago and, at this time, it is intended to expand its use to address: the vulnerability of ecosystem services; natural environment access and recreation assets; and geology and soils. Expansion of its use to coastal vulnerability was also mooted. It is clear that pressures on natural resources and the real threat of climate change will continue the drive to create and deliver biodiversity software tools to map baseline habitats, protect priority habitats and identify areas suitable to offset in order to create ‘bigger, better and more joined up’1 habitats. Contact details: Freddy Brookes, Senior Ecologist / Project Manager, Golder, Cavendish House, Bourne End Business Park, Cores End Road, Bourne End, SL8 5AS. [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)1628 851851
Freddy Brookes (MSc, MCIEEM), Senior Ecologist/Project
Manager, Golder, April 2019.
1 Moorcroft, M.D. & Speakman, L. (2015) Biodiversity Climate Change Impacts Summary Report. Living With Environmental Change. ISBN 978-0-9928679-6-6 copyright © Living With Environmental Change. Available at: https://nerc.ukri.org/research/partnerships/ride/lwec/report-cards/biodiversity/. Accessed 15th April 2019. 2 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate. Accessed 15th April 2019. 3 http://jncc.defra.gov.uk/page-5718. Accessed 15th April 2019. 4 https://cieem.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/InPractice85_Sept2014.pdf. Accessed 15th April 2019. 5 Natural England Research Report NERR054 National biodiversity climate change vulnerability model (2014). Available at: http://publications.naturalengland.org.uk/publication/5069081749225472. Accessed 15th April 2019. 6 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/making-space-for-nature-a-review-of-englands-wildlife-sites-published-today. Accessed 15th April 2019.
