commercial metals 4thQ 2008

12
1 4 th Quarter 2008 4 th Quarter 2008 Vertical Integration Product Diversification Global Geographic Dispersion CMC – Business Model 4 th Quarter 2008 Current Market Conditions & Outlook Global Liquidity Crisis has Paralyzed the Steel Markets Vicious Downward Spiral of Confidence Insufficient Funding Leads to Order Delays or Postponements and Inevitable Claims Campaigns Talk Down the Economy; Psychological Recession Sets in Supply (Inventories) Exceed Apparent (or Willing) Demand Reduction in Material Purchasing Leads to Lower Prices Customers Holdback Looking for the Bottom Supply Exceeds Current Orders; Prices Lower Cycle Repeats Itself 4 th Quarter 2008 Current Market Conditions & Outlook Up and Down Supply Chain Watchword is Inventory Reduction and JIT Lack of Demand Leaves no Viable Pricing Mechanism for Ferrous Scrap No Price Will Clear the Market, so Prices Freefall Scrap Backup at Dealer Level Including Nonferrous Ferrous Export Market Weak

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Transcript of commercial metals 4thQ 2008

Page 1: commercial metals 4thQ 2008

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4th Quarter 20084th Quarter 2008

Vertical Integration

Product Diversification

Global Geographic Dispersion

CMC – Business Model

4th Quarter 2008

Current Market Conditions & Outlook

Global Liquidity Crisis has Paralyzed the Steel MarketsVicious Downward Spiral of ConfidenceInsufficient Funding Leads to Order Delays or Postponements and Inevitable ClaimsCampaigns Talk Down the Economy; Psychological Recession Sets inSupply (Inventories) Exceed Apparent (or Willing) DemandReduction in Material Purchasing Leads to Lower PricesCustomers Holdback Looking for the BottomSupply Exceeds Current Orders; Prices LowerCycle Repeats Itself

4th Quarter 2008

Current Market Conditions & Outlook

Up and Down Supply Chain Watchword is Inventory Reduction and JIT

Lack of Demand Leaves no Viable Pricing Mechanism for Ferrous Scrap

No Price Will Clear the Market, so Prices Freefall

Scrap Backup at Dealer Level Including Nonferrous

Ferrous Export Market Weak

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4th Quarter 2008

Current Market Conditions & Outlook

Market Conditions Difficult for Earnings ProjectionExpected 1st Quarter Earnings Range - $0.35 to $0.45Rapidly Falling Prices and Inventory Levels will Result in Significant LIFO Income; Anticipating Minimum $50 Million Pre-Tax for QuarterMaterial Flow Between CMC Vertical Units Will be EmphasizedRecycling Scaling Back Flow into PlantsAmericas Mills Volumes Down, But Margin HoldsAmericas Fab Find Relief From Margin CompressionPolish Results Drop as Finished Good Prices Drop Faster than Scrap; Billet Exports EndInternational Marketing OK; Working Off Backlog

4th Quarter 2008

North AmericaRestricting Recycling Flows Will Bring Lower Prices, Lower Utilization Mill Backlogs in Usual 40-50 Day Range, But Heavily Weighted Towards Highway WorkService Centers Living Hand to Mouth; Merchant Tons OffOur Mills Will Take Downtime for Inventory ControlFabrication Will do Better in Falling Market, But Backlog is not Being Replaced as Quickly as ShipmentsMany Small Jobs (200-700 tons) Being Bid, But Larger Jobs Scarce

4th Quarter 2008

North AmericaStrong U.S. Dollar and Declining Freight Rates Do Not Attract Imports Customers Do Not Want to be Exposed and Committed to Import Lead Times in Falling Market Nonferrous Exports to China Nonexistent in Current Market; Turn to European OutletsDomestic OTCG Imports Still GoodCopper Tube Hurt by Rapid Price DeclinesRaw Material Markets Still Strong

4th Quarter 2008

Europe / Middle EastBank Contagion Roils RegionPolish Economy Still Strong, But Price Declines Squeeze MarginsGood News is European Inventories are LowArab States Have Significant Tonnage on the Ground or in TransitTurkish Import Offers to U.S. Find No BuyersCroatian Volume Building; Production is Key

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4th Quarter 2008

Asia / PacificChinese Have the Foreign Reserves and the Central Control to Maintain 8-9% GDPChina Initiatives Include– Lowering Taxes and Interest Rates– Increasing Export Subsidies– Increasing Public Housing Spending– Fund Major Infrastructure Work– Curtail Steel Production

Other Asian Markets Quiet; No Turnaround Until Chinese New YearAustralian Market Still Exhibiting Strength

4th Quarter 2008

Project ReviewArizona Micro Mill

– All Required Permits Received in August– Expected Commissioning Date September 2009– $155 Million Cost– 280,000 Tons of Rebar

Polish Wire Rod Block– First Bars Produced in October– Will Significantly Upgrade Wire Rod and Coiled Rebar Offerings– $40 Million Total Cost– 40-50,000 Additional Tons of Production in Fiscal 2009

Polish Flexible Section Mill– Ground Broken; Construction Underway– $190 Million– 650,000 MT– Increased Product Range; Higher Quality Wire Rod / Larger Sizes– Expected Commissioning January 2010

SAP– Third Wave Rollout Now Complete– First Rebar Fab Plants Now Running SAP– Next Rollout – Two Domestic Mills and First Recycling Plants

4th Quarter 2008

CMC Steel ArizonaMesa, Arizona

Melt ShopMelt Shop

4th Quarter 2008

CMC Steel ArizonaMesa, Arizona

Roughing Mill Foundation

Roughing Mill Foundation

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4th Quarter 2008

CMC Steel ArizonaMesa, Arizona

Fab ShopFab ShopCooling BedCooling Bed

4th Quarter 2008

Liquidity

$500 Million 10 Year Bond 7.3% Completed in August$400 Million Commercial Paper Program$200 Million Domestic A/R Securitization Agreement$340 Million International A/R Sales ProgramsUnsecured Bank Credit LinesFavorable Debt Covenants

4th Quarter 2008

What Will Break the Cycle?

Government Intervention Programs Must be Shown EffectiveGet the Election Over WithPossible Capital / Infrastructure StimulusRestore Confidence

Statistics

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4th Quarter 2008

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500$2,000

$2,500

$3,000$3,500

4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

($ in Millions)Quarterly Net Sales

Discontinued Operations

2,4032,203 2,337

2,9113,227

4th Quarter 2008

10.75.7

9.43.8

26.0

43.339.6

29.1

15.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Return on Beginning Equity

4th Quarter 2008

0.86

0.57

0.340.51 0.55

$0.00

$0.25

$0.50

$0.75

$1.00

$1.25

4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

Quarterly Earnings Per Diluted Share

4th Quarter 2008

-$150

-$100

-$50

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

($ in Millions)

LIFO Expense/Income

LIFO Earnings Analysis

Earnings Before LIFO Expense

140

92 78119 99

66 78

143 155

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4th Quarter 2008

LIFO Expense (Income) Pre-Tax

(8,808)

3,743

(3,124)

(135)

(9,292)

4th Qtr.2007

(4,262)

(6,538)

4,307

(3,863)

1,832

1st Qtr.2008

58,954

632

35,160

18,193

4,969

2nd Qtr.2008

127,152

(385)

57,023

55,327

15,187

3rd Qtr.2008

139,896

3,893

100,945

40,152

(5,094)

4th Qtr.2008

InternationalFab & Dist.

Total

Americas Fab & Dist.

Americas Mills

AmericasRecycling

(Thousands)

4th Quarter 2008

0.07 0.08 0.090.12

0.17

0.33

0.45

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Dividend Payout Per Shareby Fiscal Year

4th Quarter 2008

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Projected2009

52110 131

($ in Millions)

206

355

Capital Expenditures

450

4th Quarter 2008

AmericasRecycling

4th Qtr. 2007

Adjusted Operating Profit by Segment

International Fab& Distribution

AmericasMills

Americas Fab& Distribution

International Mills

38%

45%

(52)%

41%41%

28%

4th Qtr. 2008

36%

20% 19%19%

12% 13%

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4th Quarter 2008

33.8

52.9

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

4Q07 4Q08

($ in Millions)AmericasRecycling

Adjusted Operating Profit

4th Quarter 2008

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08

Ferr

ous

$ To

ns

0.40

0.90

1.40

1.90

2.40

2.90

3.40

CU

& A

L $

Poun

d

Ferrous Aluminum Copper

$2.82

$465

$1.02

Source: CMC

Average Selling PricesAmericasRecycling

4th Quarter 2008

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

4Q07 4Q08Ferrous Nonferrous

(Tons 000’s)Quarterly Scrap Shipments

AmericasRecycling

861794

4th Quarter 2008

64.0

49.2

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

4Q07 4Q08

Adjusted Operating Profit($ in Millions)

AmericasMills

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4th Quarter 2008

0100200300400500600700800

4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

RebarMerchant Shapes, Billets & Structurals

(Tons 000’s)

548

328

220

Americas Steel MillsProduct Mix

AmericasMills

594

309

285

630

364

266

673

373

300

631

346

285

4th Quarter 2008

$350

$450

$550

$650

$750

$850

$950

Mar Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

OctNo

vDe

cJa

n-08 Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug

CMC TX CMC AL CMC SC CMC AR

884

863878

858

($ per Ton)

Americas Steel MillsAverage Selling Prices

AmericasMills

4th Quarter 2008

*Tons in thousands

ChangeFY

2007FY

2008

18102120Billet Tons Shipped*83548631Tons Shipped*

38$352$390Metal Margin

209$239$448Cost of Scrap Utilized

247$591$838Avg. Selling Price

Americas Steel Mill Margins4th Quarter Comparisons

AmericasMills

4th Quarter 2008

3.004.005.006.007.008.009.00

10.00

4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

CMC-TX CMC-AL CMC-SC CMC-AR

Cen

ts/K

WH

Electric Rates by QuarterAmericasMills

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4th Quarter 2008

2.005.008.00

11.0014.0017.0020.00

4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

CMC-TX CMC-AL CMC-SC CMC-AR$/

MC

F

Natural Gas Rates by QuarterAmericasMills

4th Quarter 2008

Percentage of Manufactured Cost Per TonAverage of Mills in Texas / Alabama / South Carolina

15%11%Other6%2%Depreciation8%4%Labor8%5%Maintenance13%8%Utilities (Electricity/Gas)15%10%

Supplies (Electrodes/Alloys)

35%60%Material (Scrap)

YearEnded8/31/01

YearEnded8/31/08

AmericasMills

4th Quarter 2008

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

MarAprMayJun JulAugSep OctNovDec

Jan-08 FebMarAprMayJun JulAug

Pric

e Pe

r Po

und

CostCost

LY Avg – 4.06

LY Avg – 3.09

CY Avg – 4.34

CY Avg – 3.38

SellingSelling

Copper Tube ManufacturingAverage Prices

AmericasMills

4th Quarter 2008

13.5

10.411.5

16.7

13.911.7

14.513.3 12.8

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

(in Millions)

Copper Tube ManufacturingPounds Shipped

AmericasMills

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4th Quarter 2008

36.1

(67.0)

-$70-$60-$50-$40-$30-$20-$10

$0$10$20$30$40$50

($ in Millions)Americas Fabrication& Distribution

Adjusted Operating Profit

4Q07 4Q08

4th Quarter 2008

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

Rebar Structurals Posts Deck

(Tons 000’s)

Joist

429

ShipmentsAmericas Fabrication& Distribution

428376

452 470

4th Quarter 2008

$1,012$2,996$1,491$1,352

$983

2008

4th Quarter

$736$2,306

NA$1,223

$876

2007

Joist

StructuralFence Post

Deck

Rebar

Average Selling Prices*Americas Fabrication& Distribution

*Excludes Stock and Buyout Sales

4th Quarter 2008

21.7

63.0

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

4Q07 4Q08

($ in Millions)InternationalMills

CMCZ (Poland)Adjusted Operating Profit

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4th Quarter 2008

-$10

-$5

$0

$5

$10

1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

($ in Millions)

CMCS (Croatia)Adjusted Operating Loss

InternationalMills

(4.5) (6.4) (8.5) (5.9)

4th Quarter 2008

68%37%% Domestic

309424Total Tons Shipped*

56177Billet Tons Shipped*

99125Wire Rod Tons Shipped*

154122Rebar Tons Shipped*

727740Metal Margin (PLN)

8931,351Cost of Scrap Utilized (PLN)

1,6202,091Avg. Selling Price (PLN)20072008

*Tons in thousands

CMCZ Mill Margins4th Quarter FY Comparisons

InternationalMills

4th Quarter 2008

8,508Seamless Tons Shipped

27%% Domestic

624Drawn Tons Shipped

10,425Welded Tons Shipped

19,557Tons Shipped

21,161Tons Rolled17,596Tons Melted

CMCS Mill Stats4th Quarter FY 2008

InternationalMills

4th Quarter 2008

24.3

35.7

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

4Q07 4Q08

($ in Millions)

LIFOExpense: 3.7 3.9

International Fabrication& Distribution

Adjusted Operating Profit

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4th Quarter 2008

This written and verbal presentation may use financial statement measures considered non-GAAP financial measures

by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In compliance with the SEC’s Regulation G, we have

provided on our web site at

a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measure and other information that may be of interest to investors.

www.cmc.comwww.cmc.com

Non-GAAP Financial Measuresand Regulation G

Investor Information

4th Quarter 2008

Forward-Looking StatementsThis written and verbal presentation may contain forward-looking statements regarding the outlook for the Company's financial results including net earnings, product pricing and demand, production rates, interest rates, inventory levels, impact of acquisitions and general market conditions. These forward-looking statements generally can be identified by phrases such as the company or its management “expect,” “anticipates,”“believe,” “ought,” “should,” “likely,” “appears,” “projected,” “forecast,”“outlook,” “will” or other words or phrases of similar impact. There is inherent risk and uncertainty in any forward-looking statements. Variances will occur and some could be materially different from management's current opinion. Developments that could impact the Company's expectations include solvency of financial institutions and their ability or willingness to lend, extent of government intervention and its effect on capital markets, construction activity, difficulties or delays in the execution of construction contracts resulting in cost overruns or contract disputes, metals pricing over which the Company exerts little influence, interest rate changes, increased capacity and product availability from competing steel minimills and other steel suppliers including import quantities and pricing, court decisions, industry consolidation or changes in production capacity or utilization, the ability to integrate acquisitions into operations; global factors including political and military uncertainties, credit availability, currency fluctuations, energy and supply prices and decisions bygovernments impacting the level of steel imports and pace of overall economic activity, particularly China.