Commercial Fleet Forecast-2012-H1 Summary
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COmmErCIaL FLEET FOrECasTGLOBaL: 2012-2031
reech d li fo Flightglobl Iight d achieig the Diffeece
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COmmErCIaL FLEET FOrECasT2012-H1
2| Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | SUMMARY
BaCkGrOunDIn the rst half of 2011, Flightglobal publishedits rst forecast report. Flightglobal continues toexpand its growing store of information and isnow arguably among the worlds most completeset of aviation statistics anywhere.
In partnership with Clive Lewis of the Achievingthe Difference marketing practive, furtherrenements have been made to the forecastingmodel and the latest installment (2012-H1) now
includes an improved freighter forecast.
Clive brings with him decades of forecastingexperience within the commercial aerospacesector. Working together with the Flightglobal
Insight research team, he has painstakinglycombined Flightglobals data resource withhis expertise in developing computer-basedforecasting tools.
The resulting forecasting model spent a year inthe making. Much time was invested in ensuring
that the methodology was robust, includingsome sterling work by the UKs Bristol BusinessSchool in proving the model against decades
worth of data.
At the heart of the forecast lies the PachinkoProbability Tree. Like the ball-bearings of the
Japanese arcade game after which it is named,individual aircraft drop through this tree-likepredictive model based on over 800,000 historicobservations, assigning probabilities to which
way they will fall in terms of service, storage ormigration between world regions.
Total eet size is predicted by demand-sideanalysis based on the relationship between eetcapacity and economic growth, the latter based
on predictions from the International MonetaryFund (IMF).
Updated twice a year, the report is a set of 20-year predictions which are robustly tested and
truly independent.
The Pachinko Probability Tree has been
developed to perform long-term predictions
In THIs rEpOrTlPassenger and freighter demand
including:
Fleet size
Deliveries Order backlog
Retirements
lAnalysis divided in six world regionsplus a separate section on China
lCovers all modern commercialairliners over 20-seats
l Detailed orecasts or aircraftcategories down to model series
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SUMMARY| Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | 3
Africa
Asia-Pacific (ex China)
China
Europe
Middle East
North America
South America
22%
6%15%
7%
19%
24%
7%
Total fleet: 39,155
37%o the worlds commercial eet (all
uses) will be based in Asia-Pacifc by
2031. China alone will be operating
more than 5,900 aircrat.
15%o global narrowbody deliveries in 2030 will
be manuactured by companies competing
with the Airbus and Boeing duopoly.
HEaDLInEs
active fleet regional split in 2031
Number
ofdeliveries
Year ending
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2027202220172012
Irkut MS-21
Comac C919
Bombardier CSeries
Boeing 737
Airbus A320 Family
narrowbody deliveries by manufacturer
aCTIvE FLEET DEvELOpmEnT
DELIvErIEs
Growth demand is coming from Asia-Pacic,China, the Middle East and Africa.The newterritories of growth demand appear to begrowing-up differently to the way the maturemarkets did, skipping the high levels of growth
in the smaller turboprop and regional jet eets.This is not good news for manufacturers in thesesegments without a growth region to deliver to.Signs of change in these areas will be carefullyobserved.
The narrowbody market group forms thebackbone of capacity supply across the world
and acts as a barometer of the industry. Fleetgrowth is expected to be strongest in Asia-Pacic and China. Although small, the eetsof Africa and the Middle East are expected toshow a high growth rate.
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COmmErCIaL FLEET FOrECasT2012-H1
4| Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | SUMMARY
58%o the worlds commercial eet
retirements to 2031 will be narrowbody
aircrat.
75%o commercial aircrat operating in 2012
will still be in service in 2031.
Numberofaircraft
Year ending
0
100
200
300
400
2027202220172012
Widebody Jet
Narrowbody Jet
Regional Jet
Turboprop
retirements by market group
Totalnumberofaircraft
Year ending
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
2027202220172012
Widebody Jet
Turboprop
Regional Jet
Narrowbody Jet
survivors by market group
rETIrEmEnTs
survIvOrs
It is no surprise that almost half of the retirementspredicted in the 121-200 seats category are ofthe prolic 737. Of these, the 737 Classic isexpected to see the most retirements. It is alsonot surprising that almost half of all retirements
are expected to be from the mature market of
North America.
A survivor is an aircraft that was in active service
in 2012, remaining in active service later in theforecast period. It is possible for an aircraft thathas been parked or used for some other purposeto re-enter the active eet at a later point.
A high percentage of the original regional jet andturboprop eet is expected to survive to the endof the forecast period while many narrowbody
jets are expected to re-enter service.
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SUMMARY| Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | 5
Capacity
(tonnes)
Year ending
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
ll
l
2022201220021992
Large Widebody 72.5-150 tonnes
Medium Widebody 40-72.5 tonnes
Medium Standard Body 33-60 tonnes
Small Standard Body 12.5-33 tonnes
Utility 0-12.5 tonnes
61%o the commercial aircrat in China will be
in the 121-200 seat category by the end
o the orecast period.
65%o reighter capacity by 2031 is
projected to be large widebodies.
world freighter capacity
FOCus On CHIna
FrEIGHTEr markET
missingNumberofaircraft
Year ending
GDPonPPPbasis(currentin
tl$)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2022201220021992
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
GDP451+ seats
351-450 seats
251-350 seats
201-250 seats
121-200 seats
91-120 seats
51-90 seats
20-50 seats
china: active passenger fleet
The growth of the eet in the 121-200 seatcategory has been the strongest of any in theregion, and is closely correlated with the growthof Chinas GDP. This relationship is reduced
slightly going forward, because the order book
does not support the continuation of suchcorrelated growth. There has been some slowgrowth in the average seats per aircraft. This isa global trend and is predicted to continue over
the forecast period.
Since the mid-1990s, an increasing proportion
of capacity has been delivered by large aircraft.In 1980, the Large Widebody share of capacitywas 30%. This had increased to 36% by 1990,
50% in 2000 and 60% in 2010, and is predictedto increase further, to 65%, by 2031.
More than half of the aircraft in this LargeWidebody freighter eet are Boeing 747s. By
2031, this gure is expected to fall to less than40%.
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COmmErCIaL FLEET FOrECasT2012-H1
6| Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | SUMMARY
wHaT DO yOu GET?
COnTEnTs
global summary
regional analysis
Arica | Asia-Pacifc | China | Europe | Middle East |
North America | South America
market group analysis
Turboprops | Regional jets | Narrowbody jets |
Widebody jets
manufacturers and programmes
Airbus | ATR | Boeing | Bombardier | Comac |
Embraer | Mitsubishi | United Aircrat Corporation
retirement forecast
Retirements | Conversions | Survivors
methodology
assumptions
glossary
appendices
The Commercial Fleet Forecastreportcan be purchased as an annual packagewhich includes two full printed reports,each with 350+ pages.
It features written analysis with detailedinfographics. Each report is supplied witha comprehensive, updated set of dataused in the analysis in Excel format.
Independent analysis...
lfrom trusted brands
lbased on world leading data
lwith a robust methodology
...informing your business
lthrough detailed analysis
lwith expert commentary
lplus full data tables in Excel
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SUMMARY| Achieving the Difference | Flightglobal Insight | 7
aBOuT THE auTHOr
Clive Lewis of Achieving the Difference has morethan a quarter of a century of aerospace industryexperience. While a market forecaster at SmithsIndustries (now GE Aviation), he studied for aMasters degree in Marketing at the University of theWest of England. His dissertation on an econometric
model for forecasting airliner retirements earnedhim a distinction. Clive went on to lead the marketand business forecasting team at Lucas Varity
which became TRW Aeronautical Systems and laterGoodrich Aerospace.
As an industry supporter, Clive is a member of the ADSMarket Development Board. For the last few years,Achieving the Difference has delivered the marketforecast used by ADS and UK Trade & Investment to
determine their international support strategy for thesector.
For further details, contact Daniel Sedman (Sales Manager Europe) at:
Tel: +44 208 652 3914Email: [email protected]
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