Commercial AviationCommercial AviationSafety Team Safety Team

(CAST)(CAST)

Update Update

Kyle L. OlsenKyle L. Olsen

COSCAP-South East Asia, MacauCOSCAP-South East Asia, MacauOctober, 2008 October, 2008

* Representing P&W and RR** Observer

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATAIFALPANACABoeingGE*RAAFSF

CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agendadevelop & implement a prioritized safety agenda

Industry

Commercial Aviation Safety Team

(CAST)

Government

DODFAA

• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic Operations• Research

NASAICAO**JAATCCNATCA** NTSB**EASA

IATA**AAPA** ATAC**APFA**

• Safety enhancement development

• Master safety plan • Enhancement

effectiveness• Future areas of

study

• Data analyses

CAST

Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)

Joint Safety Implementation

Teams (JSIT)

Joint Implementation Measurement Data

Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &

MAINTENANCE

Carry-on Baggage

Child Restraint

Passenger Interference

CABIN SAFETY

IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS

GENERAL AVIATION

Loss of Control

Weather

Survivability

Aeronautical Decisionmaking

Controlled Flight

Into Terrain Approach and Landing

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Controlled Flight Into Terrain

Loss of Control

Weather

Uncontained Engine Failures

Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use

Runway Incursions

Safer SkiesSafer Skies

Turbulence

Effectiveness

that an intervention has for reducing the accident rate if incorporated

Portion of world fleet with intervention implemented

( ),Accident Risk Reduction =

General Methodology for Calculating the General Methodology for Calculating the Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing

InterventionIntervention

General Methodology for Calculating the General Methodology for Calculating the Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing

InterventionIntervention

CAST Implementation Status

7

CAST Safety Plan - August 7, 2008

In Question0%

Late0%

On Tgt33%

Complete67%

Complete

On Tgt

Late

In Question

47

23

70 Safety Enhancements47 Complete23 Underway

2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimate74 %

CHANGES from last meeting2 SEs completed SE129, SE30

Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1998 through 2007

Accidents permillion departures

United Statesand Canada

0.4

Latin Americaand Caribbean

2.1

Europe0.7

China0.3

Middle East2.3

Africa10.0

Asia2.1

Oceania0.0

(ExcludingChina)

C.I.S.1

1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.

World1.1

Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1998 through 2007

Accidents permillion departures

United Statesand Canada

0.4

Latin Americaand Caribbean

2.1

Europe0.7

China0.3

Middle East2.3

Africa10.0

Asia2.1

Oceania0.0

(ExcludingChina)

C.I.S.1

CAST70 SEs47 complete23 in work74% reduction

PAASTCFIT and ALAR

ESSI35 SEs JAA11 SEs EASA62% reduction

ASET

COSCAP CIS

COSCAP NA, SA, SEA40 SEs in work60% reduction

1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.

World1.1

COSCAP GulfCOSCAP BAG

Moving ForwardMoving Forward

Safety Plan DevelopmentSafety Plan Development

AccidentJSATS

Case studies

AccidentJSITS

Case studies

SafetyEnhancements

IncidentAnalysisProcess

JIMDATReview

EmergingRisk

ChangingRisk

DevelopEnhancements

& Metrics

AviationSystem

Changes

PresentIn MasterFactors

Yes

No

DemographicChanges

IdentifyHazards

IdentifyFactors

DevelopContributing

Factors(new or

emerging

IdentifyHazards

IdentifyFactors

MasterContributing

Factors

11-5-03 CAST-051R

FAST Hazards

CASTPlan

RecommendedPlan

Revision

PerformanceTo PlanReview

Non-PerformanceInformation

Metrics

127 August 2008 Distribution limited to CAST only

7 August 2008

Aviation Safety Information Analysis Sharing

ASIAS Activities Summary to the CAST

Aviation Safety Information Analysis Sharing

ASIAS Activities Summary to the CAST

137 August 2008 Distribution limited to CAST only

Signed MOUs

147 August 2008 Distribution limited to CAST only

Regional Airlines Outreach

157 August 2008 Distribution limited to CAST only

15

ASIAS Architecture:Where We Are

DNAA DNFA

Enhanced Data

Management Tools

Expanded Analytical

Tools

FAA ASIAS Data

MIT

RE

CR

S D

ata

ASDE-X

New Airlines

Data Fusion

National Offload

Program

ASDE-X Airports

ATL-BDL-CLT-FLL-HOUIAD-LAX-MCO-MKE-ORD

PVD-SDF-SEA-STL

Thank you