Comments on US propane export - StealthGas Inc. · 44 Gas Prodigy Spot 45 Gas Ice Spot 46 Gas...
Transcript of Comments on US propane export - StealthGas Inc. · 44 Gas Prodigy Spot 45 Gas Ice Spot 46 Gas...
StealthGas Inc.
Q2 2016Financial & Operating Results
August 25th 2016
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable federal securities laws. Such statements are based upon current expectations that involve risks and uncertainties. Any statements contained herein that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. For example, words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “estimates,” “intends,” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Actual results and the timing of certain events may differ significantly from the results discussed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Among the factors that might cause or contribute to such a discrepancy include, but are not limited to the risk factors described in the Company’s Registration Statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, particularly those describing variations on charter rates and their effect on the Company’s revenues, net income and profitability as well as the value of the Company’s fleet
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StealthGas Key Highlights
❶ Highlights
• Successful delivery of one new eco- LPG carrier, the Eco Dominator, at the end of June 2016.
• Period on period increase of vessel calendar days by 15%.
• Operational utilization of 91.2% in Q2 2016.
• About 70% of fleet days secured on period charters for the remainder of 2016, with a total of about $ 180 mm in contracted revenues.
• Market leading position in the coastal LPG segment, with approximately 20% market share.
• Average fleet age of 9.1 years, with 76% of our fleet below 15 years of age.
Fleet & Operations
Financial • Revenues in Q2 2016 of $ 35.7 mm, increased by 10% compared to Q2 2015- in a challenging market environment.
• EBITDA in Q2 2016 of $ 11.7 mm ($ 9.9 mm in Q2 2015).
• Moderate gearing as debt to assets stands at c. 41%- in spite of our capital expansion- while net debt to assets is as low as 34%.
• Cash at hand about $ 72 mm with operating cashflow of c. $ 17 mm
• Stock repurchase of about 4.0 mm shares for a total of approx. $ 20.3 mm
• Fully funded order book, following the finalization of credit terms for our last four newbuild deliveries in 2017.
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Fleet Employment Analytics (as of August 2016)
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❶ Highlights
Indicative Clients
• Long term relationships with reputable energy companies.
• Successful chartering policy, given the soft market environment, with 40 out of 54 vessels on period charters.
• USD 177 mm in secured revenues up to 2022 with an average charter duration of about 1.5 years.
• 25% of committed revenues to be received in the remainder of 2016.
• Efficient in securing fleet employment as:
- 100% of our vessels delivered in 2015 and 2016 are on period charters.
- 40% of our vessels above 15 years old are also employed on a period basis.
Vessel Charter End Date Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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Gas Spirit T/C March 2017
Gas Inspiration T/C March 2017
EARNINGS VISIBILITY2017
Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
1 Gas Exelero B/B Jun 2022
2 Eco Chios B/B Jun 2022
3 Eco Loyalty B/B Jun 2022
4 Eco Royalty B/B Apr2022
5 Gas Astrid B/B Apr 2022
6 Eco Stream B/B Mar 2022
7 Eco Elysium B/B Sep 2021
8 Eco Green T/C Nov 2020
9 Eco Dream T/C Sep 2020
10 Eco Galaxy T/C Aug 2019
11 Navig8 Faith B/B Feb 2019
12 Gas Sincerity B/B Aug 2018
13 Gas Zael B/B Feb 2018
14 Stealth Berana B/B Feb 2018
15 Gas Defiance T/C Jan 2018
16 Gas Galaxy T/C Jan 2018
17 Eco Dominator T/C Dec 2017
18 Gas Shuriken T/C Oct 2017
19 Eco Czar T/C Aug 2016
20 Stealth Balha B/B Jul 2017
21 Gas Cerberus T/C June 2017
22 Gas Esco T/C June 2017
25 Gas Elixir T/C Feb 2017
26 Gas Texiana T/C (7) Jan 2017
27 Eco Nical T/C Jan 2017
28 Gas Husky B/B Jan 2017
29 Gas Emperor T/C Jan 2017
30 Eco Nemesis T/C Jan 2017
31 Gas Flawless T/C Jan 2017
32 Gas Icon T/C Jan 2017
33 Gas Myth T/C Dec 2016
34 Gas Imperiale T/C Dec 2016
35 Fidelity N B/B Dec 2016
36 Eco Enigma T/C Dec 2016
37 Eco Corsair T/C Dec 2016
38 Eco Invictus T/C Sep 2016
39 Gas Ethereal T/C Sep 2016
40 Eco Universe T/C Aug 2016
41 Gas Haralambos Spot
42 Gas Alice Spot
43 Gas Monarch Spot
44 Gas Prodigy Spot
45 Gas Ice Spot
46 Gas Enchanted Spot
47 Gas Sikousis Spot
48 Gas Marathon Spot
49 Eco Lucidity Spot
50 Gas Pasha Spot
51 Gas Legacy Spot
52 Gas Evoluzione Spot
53 Gas Moxie Spot
54 Gas Nirvana Spot
2016
69%
2017
37%
Fleet Trading Profile
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❶ Highlights
• StealthGas focuses on regional trade and local distribution of gas.
• Company trading pattern is geographically diversified and is continuously adjusted to market needs.
• Currently 54% of the fleet trades in the Middle- Far East , 30% in Europe, 7% in South America, 6% in Australia and 3% in Africa.
• Compared to Q1 16’, in Q2 16’ we had one vessel relocating from Far East to Europe and two vessels commencing trade in Africa- an upcoming market in LPG trade.
Trading Areas
Middle- Far East ~ 54%
EU~ 30%
South America ~ 7%
Australia~ 6%
Note: Rounding discrepancy of +/- 1%
UK20%
France13%
Netherlands10%Finland
7%
Norway10%
Spain13%
Portugal7%
Belgium7%
Rest13%
Singapore21%
China31%
South Korea6%
Japan8%
Oman8%
Indonesia6%
Rest20%
Brazil60%
Carib (Panama)
20%
Rest…
Africa~ 3%
Fleet Development
• As of August 2016 StealthGas owned 54 vessels.
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❶ Highlights
• Once capital investment program is completed by 2017, StealthGas will own 58 vessels.
GASS S&P activity
• Eco Dominator was the last scheduled delivery for 2016.
GASS Fleet Distribution as per Capacity
• 75% of our fleet is between 3,000 to 5,500 cbm.
20 20
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
3,000 to 4,500 cbm 4,550 to 5,500 cbm 5,550 to 7,500 cbm
36 38 3841 41
49 49 49 50 50
44 4
4 4
4 4 4 4 410
1 1 0 04
4042 42
45
53 53 54 54 54
58
-2 -1
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 2017
Sale/Scrapping
Newbuildings
Tanker
LPG
LPG Vessel Capacity (cbm) Built Status Date
Eco Dominator 7,500 Newbuilding delivered Jun-16
Q2 2016
Capex Program Analysis
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❶ Highlights
STEALTHGAS New buildings
• Remaining investment program, excluding advances paid, of about 162
USD mm up to end of 2017.
• 4 remaining LPG orders of 88,000 cbm aggregate capacity, under
construction in Korea.
Capital Expenditure Analysis
• *Committed bank debt refers to debt for the 2017 22K semi-ref vessels in the order of $ 140 mm that has been agreed and a portion of which is subject to the drafting of definitive documentation.
• As per our investment plan, required equity stands in the order of $ 21.5 mm while our current cash is about $ 72 mm
2017
No of Vessels (LPG) 4 semi refrigerated
Capacity (cbm) (4 x 22,000 cbm)
Remaining Capex
$161.5
RemainingCapex Breakdown
Committed bank debt
ContractValues
200
100
Advances paid
208.3
46.8
140.0*
21.5
Remaining equity from cash and future
cash flows
(Amounts in USD mm)
Note: 1. Excludes advances paid.
Q4 16' Q1 17' Q2 17' Q3 17' Q4 17' Total
Advances 15,624 15,624 5,208 36,456
Final Payments 62,496 31,248 31,248 124,992
Total 15,624 78,120 36,456 31,248 161,448
Financials – Income Statement Q2 2016 & Q2 2015
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- Revenue Increased by c. 10% followed by the net addition of seven vessels. Weak
market rates did not produce the envisaged growth in earnings. In addition to this the
drydocking of four of our vessels as well as the grounding incident of one of our LPG
vessels resulted in revenue loss due to off hire.
- 5.8% decrease in Voyage Costs mainly driven by lower bunker costs.
- Running costs up by 33%, primarily driven by the net addition of 7 vessels to our fleet
two vessels coming off bareboat and the grounding incident of one of our LPG vessels
which added quite substantially on to this quarter’s cost base.
- EBITDA in the order of $ 11.7 mm mainly as a result of:
- Low market rates and suppressed revenues due to extraordinary events.
- Weak spot market mostly due to seasonal factors.
- Drydocking costs resulting to off hire revenues as three of the vessels being
drydocked were under time charter contracts.
- Increase of opex base due to net fleet increase and vessels coming off bareboat.
Comparing Q2 2016 to Q2 2015
Note: Any difference in totals is attributed to rounding
❷ Financials
Incom e Statem ent
( Am ounts in USD' 000s )
Q2
2015
Q2
20166M
2015
6M
2016
Voyage revenues 32,437 35,745 68,113 72,219
Voyage costs (3,888) (3,661) (8,141) (7,637)Net revenues 28,549 32,084 59,972 64,582
Running costs (11,421) (15,214) (23,122) (29,761)
Charter hire expenses (1,024) (1,024) (2,056) (2,056)
Drydocking costs (433) (1,495) (433) (2,172)
Management fees (1,507) (1,823) (3,017) (3,616)
G&A (916) (791) (1,840) (1,545)
Depreciation (8,616) (9,695) (16,986) (19,334)
Impraiment Loss (3,567) (3,567)
Net gain on sale of vessels 33 33 294
Income from operations 1,099 2,041 8,984 6,392
Interest and finance costs (2,341) (3,495) (4,555) (6,851)
Other income/(expenses) (18) (97) 143 (456)
Net income (1,260) (1,550) 4,572 (914)
Net income Adjusted 2,429 (1,461) 8,217 (1,344)
EBITDA 9,869 11,692 26,568 25,735
EBITDA Adjusted 13,558 11,781 30,214 25,305
EPS (0.03) (0.04) 0.11 (0.02)
EPS Adjusted 0.06 (0.04) 0.20 (0.03)
Number of Shares 41,545,085 39,746,051 41,790,051 39,890,741
Number of Vessels 48 54 48 54
Fleet Data Q2 2015 Q2 2016 6M 2015 6M 2016
Average number of vessels in fleet 46.0 53.0 46.0 53.0
Period number of vessels in fleet 48.0 54.0 48.0 54.0
Total calendar days for fleet 4,369 5,009 8,681 10,000
Total voyage days for fleet 4,363 4,890 8,664 9,828
Fleet utilization 99.9% 97.6% 99.8% 98.3%
Total charter days for fleet 3,347 3,821 6,950 7,647
Total spot market days for fleet 1,016 1,069 1,714 2,181
Fleet operational utilization 89.2% 91.2% 92.4% 91.2%
Average Daily Results (in $) Q2 2015 Q2 2016 6M 2015 6M 2016
Adjusted Time Charter Equivalent - TCE 7,970 7,843 8,335 7,806
Vessel Operating Expenses- Adjusted 4,074 4,275 4,144 4,221
Management Fees 345 364 348 362
General and Administrative Expenses 210 158 212 154
Total Vessel Operating Expenses- Adjusted 4,284 4,433 4,356 4,375
Financials -Performance Highlights Q2 2016 & Q2 2015
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❷ Financials
Key Comments
(Note: * Assuming no BB charters)
*
*
*
- Fleet utilization fell to 97.6% in Q2 16’ compared to 99.9% in
Q2 15’ as a result of 4 vessels being drydocked and a
grounding incident of one of our vessels.
- Operational utilization at 91.2% in spite of soft market
conditions and weak seasonal demand.
- Adjusted Time charter equivalent is lower by c. 1.5% in Q2
16’ compared to Q2 15’, reflecting the declining trend of
market rates.
- Daily operational expenses marked an increase of c. 3.5%
following the net addition of seven vessels and two vessels
coming off bareboat.
- Almost 30% decrease in Daily G&A.
Financials – Balance Sheet 6M 2016
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❷ Financials
Assets 6M 2016
• Vessels net value up by c. $ 25 mm mainly as a result of the delivery of 2
new eco LPG vessel- one in Q1 16’ and one at the end of Q2 16’
• Strong liquidity continues as cash amounts to c. $ 71.6 mm
Key Remarks
Equity & Liabilities 6M 2016
Low gearing as total debt corresponds to about 40% of total assets, while
net debt ratio is as low as 34%.
• Company leverage at same levels:
- Loan proceeds for 6M 16’ were $ 31.2 mm used to fund the vessel
acquisitions, whereas
- Repayments were also in the order of $ 31.2 mm including a
balloon payment of $ 8.8 mm(Note: 1. Debt Balances are net of capitalized Arrangement Fees)
Balance Sheet
(Amounts in $'000s) 12M 2015 6M 2016
AssetsCash & cash equivalents 100,063 71,576
Current assets excl. cash 23,309 22,261
Advances for vessels under construction 44,032 43,974
Vessel, net 864,690 889,683
Other assets 5,780 5,713
Total Assets 1 ,037,874 1,033,206
Liabilities & Stockholders Equity
Current portion of long term debt1 74,928 65,091
Current liabilities 28,786 27,203
Long term debt1 347,234 357,053
Other liabilities 3,875 5,043
Stockholders' equity 583,051 578,817
Total Liabilities & Stockholders Equity 1,037,874 1,033,206
Financials – Break Even and Fleet Analysis
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❷ Financials
• Average TCE follows the trend of the market. As evident from
the table below that presents the average TCE decline of our
segment against rates in the beginning of 2015, rates are lower
by approximately 10%.
• The increase to our breakeven in Q2 2016 and therefore our
loss is attributed exclusively to an increase in operating
expenses.
• As a general trend, our breakeven has stabilized in the past
quarters at satisfactory levels.
Daily Breakeven Analysis ($)
Fleet Contribution Analysis
• Indeed period charter contracts remain our strongest revenue
stream even during poor market conditions.
• The weak spot market is reflected in the low contribution to
our TCE earnings.
Bareboat Spot Time Charter
% of TCE 22% 13% 65%
Bareboat Spot Time Charter
% Voyage Days 25% 24% 51%
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Average
Decline of
Market TCE(5.0%) (10.1%) (10.9%) (9.6%) (8.9%) (9.6%)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016Daily Average TCE Daily Breakeven
LPG Sector Highlights & Trends
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❸Market Update
Source: Argus, Wells Fargo, Clarksons
Global LPG Supply and Demand Global LPG Imports and Exports
• In spite of low oil prices, demand for LPG is forecast to follow an upward trend in the upcoming years mostly led by China, India and the US.
• It is also worth to mention that household demand, a very important market for small LPGs, is at a latent stage and has not yet been unlocked in areassuch as North Africa, Middle East and rural India.
Global Propane Price Differentials • LPG price differentials and therefore arbitrage opportunities have narrowed led by the
production slow down in the US fact which affects the demand for long haul voyages
and not so much the activity of our segment that of small LPGs.
• In addition to this, medium and large LPG gas carriers have been affected by the large
orderbook prevailing in their segment.
• By the beginning of the year and up to July 2016, 32 new building VLGCs have been
delivered onto a base of 200 vessels.
• All of the above led to the sharp decline in this market’s time charter rates.
0.56
0.3
0.23
0.1 0.09
0.72
0.53
0.46
0.25
0.16
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016
North America to Western Europe North America to NorthEast Asia
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❸Market Update
Source: GRIEG Shipbrokers, Clarksons
Historical Charter Rates
• Focusing on our segment- that of small LPGs- it is noticeable thatin the past months rates do not show a sign of clear recovery.
• Rates for small LPGs follow a far more stable trend whencompared to prevailing rates in the broader shipping market.
Small LPG Daily Charter Rates Evolution ($)
Coastal LPG (3,000-8,000 cbm) Fleet Age & Scrapping
• Although the age distribution in our segment favors more scrapping,
• In 2016 we have seen the demolition of only 3 vessels.
Coastal LPG Orderbook
• Limited order book with a further 4 vessels expected to bedelivered up until the end of 2016 (1% of existing fleet).
• In 2017 and 2018, our segment’s order book is anticipated to be onaggregate, less than 3% of the existing fleet.
23% 24%
8%
20%
14%
5% 5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-4 yrs 5-9 yrs 10-14 yrs 15-19 yrs 20-24 yrs 25-30 yrs 30+ yrs
24% of the market fleet is above 20 years of age.
Note: Based on an estimated fleet for the above categories of approximately 350 vessels.
2016 2017 2018
Press 7,000 to 7,5000 cbm 2 1 1
Press 5,000-5,5000 cbm
Press 3,000 - 5,000 cbm 2 5 3
Total 4 6 4
% of fleet (3,000 to 7,500 cbm) 1.1% 1.7% 1.1%
Average
Q2 2015
Average
Q1 2016
Average
Q2 2016
% Change
(Q2 15 Vs Q2 16)
% Change
(Q1 16 Vs Q2 16)
7,500 PR 11,102 11,175 11,300 1.8% 1.1%
5,000 PR 8,067 7,400 7,250 (10.1%) (2.0%)
3,500 PR (West) 6,295 5,650 5,900 (6.3%) 4.4%
3,500 PR (East) 5,867 5,600 5,600 (4.6%) 0.0%
GASS Share Performance vs Peers (April – August, 2016)
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❹ Share Performance
• Oil price movement continues to affect energy related stocks.
• It is noticeable however that in the past three months of 2016 shares of companies that own medium to large gas carriers were not as much correlated to oil fluctuations, and demonstrated a decline.
% c
ha
ng
e o
f p
rice
• Share price of GASS increased by 4%.
• Share prices of peers have marked a decline possibly due to the weakening of freight rates in the medium to large LPG carrier segment.
Share Price % ChangeThroughout 2016, and up to end of July:YTD
2016GASS 3.8%
NAVIGATOR (29.4%)
DORIAN (47.6%)
OIL 13.2%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 1-May-16 16-May-16 31-May-16 15-Jun-16 30-Jun-16 15-Jul-16 30-Jul-16
Crude Oil GASS Dorian Navigator
Time Charter Equivalent – Sensitivity Analysis
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❺ Outlook
• Numbers based on pre-contracted revenues plus open days with rates variable as per far left column.
E: Expected
• Forecast excludes the four larger semi-ref new buildings that will be delivered within 2017.
• Forecast built on an annual average operational utilization of 88%.
(Amounts in $ '000s)
TCE /EBITDA Q1 2017E Q2 2017E Q3 2017E Q4 2017E Total 2017E
Number of Operating Vessels 56 56 56 56 56
Number of Vessels on Spot 20 20 20 20 20
TCE at 7,000-7,500
12,644 13,438 13,779 13,093 52,955
TCE at 7,500-8,000
14,487 15,525 16,302 15,739 62,054
TCE at 8,000-8,500
16,296 17,494 18,961 18,479 71,231
TCE at 8,500-9,000
18,088 19,377 21,793 21,326 80,585
Valuation – Listed Companies Comparables
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❺ Outlook
P/NAV Total Debt/ Assets EV/EBITDA (16E)
BW LPG 0.54 0.44 4.3
Navigator Gas 0.73 0.40 8.0
Dorian LPG 0.65 0.44 6.1
Epic Gas 0.38 0.47 7.8
Average 0.58 0.44 6.9
StealthGas 0.30 0.41 6.5
StealthGas deviation to comps (48%) (6%) (6%)
Source: Clarkson's, July 2016
• All peer group companies trade at a discount to their Net Asset Value.• It is GASS’s low share price that affects the P/NAV ratio and our Enterprise Value.• On the other hand our Company has lower percentage leverage compared to the peer
average.• Low share price, combined with solid company fundamentals makes a good investment
opportunity.
Why StealthGas?
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❺Outlook
Positive Market DriversStealthGas Strengths
Market Factors that will positively affect our segment and consequently our Company:
Stabilization and increase of oil prices.
Intensification of scrapping in our segment.
Currently our segment has a very small orderbook.
Widening of price arbitrage in order to assist LPG seaborne trade.
Our Company’s core value lies on the following:
Conservative chartering policy and capital structure management with a significant measure of secured future revenues, close to $ 180 million on an ongoing basis, and a sensible plan of continuous deleveraging.
Healthy capital structure in spite of rigorous capital expansion plan, with a leverage ratio of close to 40%.
Successful implementation of stated fleet expansion which was realized in spite of poor market conditions; all new vessels are on period charters.
Market leading position in our market segment, and very well positioned in terms of fleet management and chartering strategy to take full advantage of even the slightest improvement in market conditions.
Low daily operational expenses, management fees and G&A compared to other companies in our peer group- an outcome of more than a decade of experience in our segment.
Attractive share price for investors in a Company that is capable to achieve solid profitability when market conditions permit so.