Comment on Robert Fogel’s Comment on Robert Fogel’s “Health, Human Capital & “Health, Human Capital & Economic Growth”Economic Growth”

IADB Workshop on Health, Human Development Potential and IADB Workshop on Health, Human Development Potential and the Quality of Life – April 26 2006 – Washington DCthe Quality of Life – April 26 2006 – Washington DC

Rodrigo R. SoaresRodrigo R. SoaresUniversity of Maryland, Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, NBER and IZAUniversity of Maryland, Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, NBER and IZA

Main Points• Nutrition as a source of growth.

• Physiological and technological changes interacting to generate a transformation of the human species technophysio evolution.

• Physical differences across people in different areas of the world seem to reflect much more socioeconomic conditions than genetics/race.

• This process would explain 30% of the growth in income per capita in the UK over the last 200 years.

Implications• 1/3 of most of the growth experienced by the UK

would have been determined from changes in nutrition and its consequences 300%.

UK from Maddison

Year A.D. GDP pc Growth

0 632  

1500 714 13%

1820 1,707 139%

1998 18,714 996%

Note: Year 0 for all Western Europe.

Some Points

• Several important changes were taking place at the same time.

• How much of the change in nutrition was endogenous to this broader process and how much was a driving force?

• Initial improvements in nutrition and population expansion without a countervailing Malthusian mechanism: some technological change necessary.

Life Expectancy at Birth and Fertility, England, 1541-1871

y = 0.0673x + 2.1979

R2 = 0.2227

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Life Exp

Fe

rtili

ty

Life Expectancy at Birth and Fertility, England, 1541-1921

y = -0.0372x + 6.0362

R2 = 0.0858

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Life Exp

Fe

rtili

ty

Some Other Points• Has this mechanism become less important over the 20th

century?– Factors associated with nutrition explain 90% of decline in

French mortality between 1785 and 1870, but only 50% during the past century.

• Changes in health have become increasingly dissociate from income and nutrition, but have remained intimately linked to the behavior of other demographic variables.

• How important is this mechanism nowadays to explain the experience of countries that have already gone through the demographic transition?

Figure 1: The Changing Relationship between Income and Life Expectancy; 1960, 1990, and 2000

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Income per capita (1996 int. prices)

Life

Exp

1960 1990 2000 Log. (1960) Log. (1990) Log. (2000)

Figure 5: The Relantionship between Income and Nutrition; 1960, 1990, and 2000

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

-1000 1000 3000 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000Income per capita (1996 int. prices)

daily

kca

l per

cap

ita

1960 1990 2000 Log. (1960) Log. (1990) Log. (2000)

`

Figure 6: The Relantionship between Nutrition and Life Expectancy; 1960, 1990, and 2000

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500daily kcal per capita

Life

Exp

1960 1990 2000 Linear (1960) Linear (1990) Linear (2000)

Figure: Relationship Between Life Expectancy at Birth and Fertility Rate - Post-Demographic Transition Countries (1960-95)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

50 55 60 65 70 75 80

life expectancy at birth

tota

l fer

tility

rat

e

1960 1995 Poly. (1960) Poly. (1995) Poly.(all)

Figure: Relationship Between Life Expectancy at Birth and Educational Attainment - Post-Demographic Transition Countries (1960-95)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

50 55 60 65 70 75 80

life expectancy at birth

avg

scho

olin

g po

p ag

ed 1

5 an

d ab

ove

1960 1995 Expon. (1960) Expon. (1995)

Open Questions• In the developed world: what do obesity

trends mean from this perspective?

• In developing countries: have the reductions in mortality been too fast to be explained by technophysio evolution?