Coming of an ‘Avalanche’ inPopulation Ageing in Bangladesh:

Are We Ready to Face it

Prof. Dr. A K M Nurun NabiVice-Chancellor

Begum Rokeya University, Rangpurakmnnabi@yahoo.com

. Population trends in Bangladesh show that

Bangladesh is well into third phase of demographic transition, having shifted from a high mortality-high fertility regime to a low

mortality-low fertility one.

As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working age population is increasing in most developing

countries, offering a window of opportunity to these countries, referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’.

The demographic dividend can be defined as the potential economic benefit offered by changes in the age structure

of the population during the demographic transition, when there is an increase in working age population and an associated decline in the dependent age population.

The demographic dividend occurs when decline in birth rate, which normally follows mortality decline with the

onset of the demographic transition, leads to changes in age structure of a population.

However, three important demographic scenarios result because of the lag between changes in fertility and

mortality rates.

During the first phase, characterised by a decline in crude death rate from the pre-demographic transition level, the

working age ratio undergoes an initial decline as the decline in crude death rate tends to be concentrated in

early childhood, creating a population bulge in the young age groups.

During the second phase of the demographic transition, in which crude birth rate declines from the pre-demographic transition level, the population bulge enters and stays in

the working age group, and the rate of growth of the working age population surpass that of total population,

with a consequent increase in the working age ratio.

During the third phase, the population bulge moves out of the working age group and enters the old age category.

The gap between the rates of growth in the working age population and total population is now reversed resulting

in a decline in the working age ratio.

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World Population Ageing

Age structural transition in Bangladesh from 1950 t0 2050

Source: Navaneetham and Dharmalingam 2009

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Challenges Remain

Although the demographic transition creates the demographic dividend, it also brings significant challenges

with it.

Among these are the areas of education, health, nutrition, ageing, inequality, housing, food, social and political

unrest , status of women, and employment.

The potential gains from the "demographic dividend" will be at risk due to continuing poverty and poor living

standards.

Particularly, poor families loose out since they are neither able to take full advantage of smaller completed

families because of inability to invest in children, nor able to compensate for the reduction in children's contribution to their present and future consumption

because of the absence of well developed institutions that provide old age security and assurance against income

erosion.

If appropriate policies are not formulated demographic dividend might, in fact, be a cost, leading to

unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health and old age security.

Three interconnected mechanisms responsible for demographic dividend resulting in economic return:

Labour Supply, Savings, Human Capital

All these mechanisms, however, depend on the external and internal economic settings and policy environment of

the country.

Health and education can only improve, if there is a provision for quality health and education.

Savings can only increase if people have access to acceptable savings mechanisms and have confidence in

the domestic financial markets.

Older people are the fastest growing segment of the population worldwide. The 21st century will witness such a rapid pace that it could be considered as the century of

ageing.

For the first time in the history of humankind, there will be more older persons than that of children aged 0-14

years in the world.

In 1950, there were about 200 million people aged 60 years or over in the world. This number is expected to

reach 1.2 billion by 2025 and it may shoot up to 2 billion by 2050.

The most rapid of this increase is taking place in the developing countries and posing major challenges to

health and wellbeing of the people. It affects directly on relationships within families, equity across generations,

lifestyles, and the family solidarity.

In Bangladesh, the number of 60 years and plus people projected to increase from about 9.77 million (6.5 percent of total population) in 2011 to 44.10 million (20.2 percent)

by 2051.

Bangladesh is one of the twenty developing countries with largest number of elderly population. By 2025 Bangladesh

along with four other Asian countries, will account for about half of the world's total elderly population.

Even the current figure of 6.5 percent has many implications. First, 6.5 percent is not only a 6.5 percent, it

is also a 10 million living beings.

Second, the average size of the households has decreased from 5.6 in 1974 to 4.4 in 2011.

Third, community and social protection network for the people who are unable to engage fully in the productive

economy has also reduced to a minimum.

Older persons are often negatively perceived and these perceptions often leave older persons marginalized, neglected and abused, particularly the poor ones.

Elderly population in Bangladesh will face many difficulties in managing the challenges such as poverty,

changing family structure, social and cultural norms, and inadequate health care facilities for the elderly

population.

For the poor, old age itself is a curse, and it is worse to be an old woman than an old man due to social and

economic marginalization.

The projection suggests that by 2025 one in 10 persons will be elderly and by 2050 one in five persons will be

elderly. There will be fewer persons in the younger generations to support and care for the growing number

of the elderly in the family.

Yet, They are Happy!

Questions that are most frequently raised by the scholars in discussing the issues related to the old age are:

What is ageing? Is it a phenomenon?

Is it an event in a life cycle? Is it a process of becoming old?

When does ageing start? Who are elderly people?

Who are ageing population? Are retirees elderly?

What are the symptoms of ageing?

Ageing can be understood from three major perspectives:

Biological Ageing

Refers to anatomical and physiological changes that occur overtime in various systems of the body. It also refers to age related changes associated with physical pathology

(an index of biological health).

Since the biological events that follow birth happen at different times for each individual, a person’s biological

age is thought of as an estimate of an individual’s present position with respect to his or her potential life

span.

Psychological Ageing

Refers to age related changes in behaviour and mental processes, such as cognitive functioning, personality and psychopathology. It also refers to changes in an

individual’s ability to adopt, adjust or cope effectively.

Social AgeingRefers to age related changes that result from forces

either arising from the society or from the individual responses to socially imposed constraints. Issues

related to social ageing are demographic characteristics, interpersonal dynamics, social roles

and status, organizational affiliations, and events in life course such as widowhood, retirement or changes in

financial status.

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What Criterion to Choose ?

  If we choose the symptoms of ageing (such as loss of neurons, deterioration of sensory organs, deterioration

of cognitive abilities, decline in body’s organ reserve, etc.) as the criteria for being considered as elderly, then

the process of ageing for Bangladeshi rural men and women starts even as early as at the age of 45 and 35

years, respectively, due to the social, cultural and economic factors such as, early marriage, frequent childbearing, low status, lack of access to services

related food, health and security.

In Bangladesh, most of the older people, particularly the poor ones, are not defined old according to chronological age, rather they are defined “old” according to physical characteristics and

limitations that affect their ability to function in daily life in both household and income generation work.

The significance of ageing can best be viewed in the context

of the simultaneous, gradual breakdown of the traditional family values, increasing life expectancy, declining birth rates

both internal and external migration by younger men and women, inadequate or slowly developing public services and

wide-spread poverty in the developing world, which affect older men and women.

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Some Thoughts on Possible Future Action

Before thinking of any possible future action to address the issue of strengthening family care and community services for elderly women in Bangladesh, there is an

overall urgent need to

have a more rigorous framework for analyzing the issues, go beyond statistical statements,

go beyond the demographic and economic variables, take a differential approach with regard to place of

residence, gender, and poverty level, establish a home care system, and

provide training facilities for care providers.

... Possible Future Action

It should also be remembered that some important demographic, social and economic changes that are currently underway would have profound implications for the circumstances under which the elderly women

will live.

The most important of which are: Decline in the number of children couples have;

Greater longevity;Increased involvement of women (the predominant

providers of care) in economic activities outside home; Physical separation of parents and adult children

associated with urbanization and age-selective, rural-to-urban migration;

Increasing gap between income and expenditure; and Ideational change, especially the rise in individualism

through education and mass-media.

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... Possible Future Action

Keeping the above circumstances in mind, some thoughts can be put forward for possible future action:

Exploring the changes in socio-cultural and demographic setting and their effects at the family,

community and national levels.Examining the interdependency between age groups and

existing family arrangements.Mapping the kin network in order to be able to measure

older persons potential support network.Using local level service providers (e.g., Health Assistants) for

counseling, guidance and emergency help.

Heritage of our national art of cooking, sewing, pottery, weaving, jute products can be preserved by engaging the elderly, in addition to increase their economic status.

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... Possible Future Action

Creating endowment funds by building partnership between different segments of society and sectors of economy

Engaging elderly people as advisors/copartners in grass root level development project activities.

Introducing an a priori deduction system from wages at earlier ages as a forced savings for old age allowance,

social security and medicare Establishing Community Ageing Deposit Scheme for

younger persons to provide care for elderly to get care in return at their old age.

Training younger and middle aged people as front running volunteer care givers.

Restructuring the retirement age and finding way out for resulting crisis in occupational mobility.

Thank You

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