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Welcome Note

Thursday04th October, 2018

Stock Of The Day: (F & O)

Forecast and Analysis

CONTENTSCONTENTS



Title Page No.

'30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street 04-07

Stock Of The Day: (F & O) 08-09

Equity Derivatives 10

Daily Pivot Table (Equities) 11

Forecast and Analysis 12-14

Daily Pivot Table (Commodities) 15

Disclaimer 16

'30,000 feet view’:

The big picture of Dalal Street

'30,000 feet view’:

The big picture of Dalal Street



'30,000 feet view’: newsletter provides insights and themes for Indian equity markets. We also try and cover international themes for the day. This newsletter is quite popular with traders as it covers the most preferred trading strategy for Sensex/Nifty for the day.

In Chart of the day section, we recommend a stock which is likely to move significantly in the short term, clearly defining the supports, the resistances and bias for the stock.

In a nutshell, '30,000 feet view’: covers themes and insights for the day.

‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street

www.comfortsecurities.co.inEnjoy Your Comfort Zone.


Nifty Outlook

Intraday

Medium Term

Long Term

Key Levels to Watch

Nifty Support

Nifty Resistance

Pivot Level

Nifty

Outlook for the Day

INDICES

Nifty

Bank Nifty

Nifty Auto Index

Nifty FMCG Index

Nifty Infra Index

Nifty IT Index

Nifty Media Index

Nifty Midcap Index

Nifty Metal Index

Nifty Pharma Index

Nifty Reality Index

Nifty Smallcap Index

Sensex

SGX Nifty


Good Morning & Welcome to Thursday's trading action at Dalal Street, dated

4th of October 2018.

The negative mood from yesterday's trading action is all set to extend into today's session.

Not a pretty picture.

Our call of the day suggests that there is no respite in sight.

Well, it is a no brainer to continue expecting uncertain times in our financial markets, until

we can knock off these three black swans off the front page:

1. The widening trade deficit.

2. The depreciating Indian Rupee.

3. The boiling oil prices.

Digging deeper, the street seems to be worried that to shore up the battered Indian Rupee,

the Reserve Bank of India may resort to hike rates at its policy meeting in October. The

monetary policy committee (MPC) three-day meeting will end on 5th October and the

resolution of the MPC will be unveiled at 14:30 pm on 5 October 2018.

Amidst such spoilers, the obvious question that will continue to haunt investors at Dalal

Street: From bad to worse?

Long story short: It's a falling knife in perfect storm with significant headwinds.

Outlook for Thursday: The bears are everywhere.

Judging by early indication at SGX Nifty, we suspect, Dalal Street has nothing to offer but

blood, toil, tears and sweat. Expect more doom and gloom for Dalal Street and amidst this

backdrop, the benchmark Nifty could tank towards 10651-10751 zone.

Makes sense to stay light and lighten long positions on any dead cat bounce.

Negativity likely to continue to be the theme as overseas investors have pulled out a

massive Rs 21,000 crore (USD 3 billion) from the capital markets in September, making it

the steepest outflow in four months. In yesterday's trade, the FIIs sold a total of Rs

9038.58 crore in equities. You can blame their decision to:

1. Strength in U.S economy.

So, the street will spy with one big eye on the U.S monthly employment report for

September-2018 to be released this Friday, October 5th. If the said numbers are robust

then it is safe to assume that the Indian Rupee will tank towards 75 levels against the USD.

Also, lingering on every investors mind would be the trade tensions between US and China

as there has not been any resolution on that front. Trade is still seen as a factor that can

weigh on the global economy and impact stock markets across world. The IMF chief

Christine Lagarde has also warned of an economic slowdown as a result of these disputes.

STOCKS TO WATCH:

• Our chart of the day suggests establishing short positions in stocks like

ENGINEERS INDIA, RAMCO CEMENTS and BHARAT FORGE with interweek

perspective.

• Bullish stocks: HDFC BANK, GAIL, HINDALCO, VEDANTA.

• Bearish stocks: BRITANNIA, RAMCO CEMENTS, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL),

BHARAT FORGE, ACC, ENGINEERS INDIA, EQUITAS, INDIA CEMENT, TITAN.

• Show Me the Money: Sell AMARA RAJA BATTERY (737.50): Overbought technical

conditions still prevail for Amara Raja Battery. Major downside risk below 713.

10858 -1.36%

25070 -1.17%

9375 -2.94%

29498 -1.42%

2933 -1.07%

15910 -1.87%

2472 -0.45%

4650 -1.30%

3592 1.81%

9951 -0.83%

216 -0.05%

6195 0.47%

35976 -1.51%

10897 0.13%

Volatile session likely.

Neutral (10945-11101)

Neutral (10250-11501)

Neutral (11901)

10751 & 10651

11111 & 11211

11575



Technical Strategy


Interweek Strategy: Selling on early excessive strength between 761-765 zone,

targeting 713 and then aggressive targets at 671-675 zone. Stop above 801.

• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: NIL

GLOBAL CUES:

• Overnight at Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at fresh records

as investors cheered healthy economic data. But the negative takeaway was that

the bond yields were seen soaring. Usually, rising yields could dampen appetite for

stocks.

• Dow did hit an all-time high of 26,951.81. Over the past three months, the S&P has

risen more than 7%, and the blue chip Dow Jones index was up about 9%.

FII/DII & OPTIONS DATA:

• As per Wednesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth

Rs. 1550.04 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand bought

shares worth Rs. 1402.47 crores in the Indian Equity market.

• As per option data, key resistance level for the September series for Nifty are at

11,500 strike price as maximum call open interest of 26.08 lakh contracts were seen

at the 11,500 strike price. While support for Nifty are seen at 10,500 strike

price as maximum put open interest seen at 10,500 strike price.

COMMODITY CUES:

• Crude Oil prices hovered near 4-year highs amidst reports that China is

cutting back on Iranian oil purchases, as well as on talks that the U.S. has no plans

to tap its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to make up for Iranian oil barrels lost amid

U.S. sanctions. Please note, oil prices have firmed up recently on backdrop of

declining Iranian exports, which have come ahead of oil-specific U.S. sanctions

against Tehran that are set to take effect early next month.

The nervousness at Dalal Street is set to deepen as crude-oil prices are seen

marching from strength to strength.

• Copper prices flared up in Wednesday's trade amidst value buying. Bias continues to

be positive. MCX COPPER (465): Interweek strategy: Establish long positions on

dips between 451-455 zone, targeting 471 and then finally at 481-485 zone with

stop at 439.05.

• Gold futures were seen drifting in yesterday's trade amidst expectation of strength

in USD/INR. Intraday Strategy: Establish short positions between 1215-1218 zone,

targeting 1193 zone and then aggressive targets at 1175-1179 zone with stop at

1231.

MACRO WATCH:

• According to a PTI report. Infra sector growth slows down. Growth of eight

infrastructure sectors slowed down to 4.2% in August on account of decline in

production of crude oil and fertiliser. The core sectors had expanded by 7.3% in July

2018.

• Amongst macroeconomic events, all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank Of

India's fourth bimonthly money policy review of this financial year which

will be held on October 3-5. The street expects RBI to raise rates for the

third time, considering deteriorate macro backdrop.

• Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee lifted interest rates for the third

time this year and the eighth time since beginning its monetary-policy normalization

EQUITAS

Action

Target

Support

Resistance

Holding Period

116.45

SELL ON STRENGTH

101

111/97.50

123.50/137.50

9 Days.

In yesterday's trade, EQUITAS ended on a

negative note and was seen breaking down from

a lower consolidation zone on the daily charts,

down 4.27%.

Technically, the momentum oscillators are

signaling a major breakdown. The stock is seen

moving down on daily charts, backed by negative

reverse divergences.

Key support to watch in near term is at 111 zone.

Medium term supports seen at 97.5-99 zone.

We expect EQUITAS to underperform the

benchmark Nifty significantly.

Establishing short positions between 119-122.50

zone, as the stock is likely to stage steep decline

towards 111 and then aggressive targets seen at

97.50-99 zone. Place stops above 128.45.

Holding Period: 9 days.




Imitative in December of 2015. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee lifted the federal-funds rate to a range between 2% to

2.25%.

The Fed has also predicted another hike by December and three more in 2019. Growth and job gains have been “strong” and inflation

remains near the central bank’s 2%.

Interestingly, Powell said that although tense trade relations were on the central bank’s radar it hadn’t yet risen to the level of a significant

concern for policy makers.

CURRENCIES & BONDS:

• In yesterday's trade, the Indian Rupee was seen tanking against the US dollar to a fresh record low of 73.41 intraday.

At the current level, the rupee has declined around 13% against the greenback so far this year. Data shows the RBI spent $6.2 billion

defending the rupee in June. This eased to $1.8 billion in July when markets stabilised, and is estimated to have remained around $2 billion

in August despite renewed market volatility.

Ascent in U.S Dollar index: The U.S Dollar index is seen gaining momentum on backdrop of Italian budget turmoil which knocked EURO

lower!

• The 10-year U.S Treasury note yield jumped 11 basis points to 3.166% and the U.S 30-year bond yield vaulted 12 basis points to 3.327%.

What Technical Tells Us on Nifty:

Nifty ended with major losses in Wednesday's trade, down 150 points at 10,858.25 mark. The negative takeaway was that Nifty ended well below

the psychological 11,000-mark.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was however strong. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 1.11%. The BSE Small-Cap

index rose 0.20%.

Technically speaking, key support for the day on Nifty is at 10,801 mark. The technical landscape will worsen further if Nifty closes below the

10,801 mark as that would open the door to massive technical selling, possibly quickly towards the 10,650-10,751 zone.

The intraday bias is neutral/negative and selling on any corrective strength should be the preferred strategy.

The make or break hurdles are at 11,221 mark. Intraday hurdles at 11,111 mark.

The price action for Nifty is suggesting that we are likely to see an 10,650-11,351 range in near term with neutral bias.

Please note, Dalal Street will become the poster boy of short-squeeze only if Nifty moves above 11,221 mark.

Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!

Volatility likely to be the hallmark of today's trade.

Preferred trade on Nifty: Nifty (10858): Sell on any

excessive strength between 10901-10945 zone,

targeting 10801 zone and then aggressive targets at

10651-10751 zone with stop at 11115.

Preferred trade on Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty (25070):

Sell on any excessive strength between 25501-25751

zone, targeting 24751 zone and then aggressive targets

at 23751-23901 zone with stop at 26221.

Daily Chart of the day



Comfort stock of the day


When we want to see what's happening far off, we will reach for the binoculars. The binocular helps us to steer out of danger and also accurately spots our targets.

When it comes to trading / investing, that's exactly how Stock Of The Day: (F & O) introduces to the momentum stocks from the list of Future & Option segment, defining their support and resistance levels, and attempts to forecast their movement with a short /medium term perspective.


R2STOCKS LTP S1 S2 R1 TRADING STRATEGYBIAS


Invest Smart. Build Wealth. www.comfortsecurities.co.in


Breakdown play is the theme for ACC. Key hurdle now seen at 1545. Interweek strategy: Establish short positions on any excessive strength between 1517-1525 zone, targeting 1469 zone, and then aggressive targets at 1421-1427 zone with stop at 1551.

BHARAT FORGE is signalling a major breakdown from 'Flag Pattern' on daily charts. Interweek Strategy: Establish short positions between 612-615 zone, targeting 593 and then aggressive targets located at 575-581 zone. Stop above 633.05.

Britannia ended on a negative note in yesterday's trade. Key hurdle now seen at 5851. Intraday strategy: Establish short positions between 5775-2801 zone, targeting 5545-5575 zone and then aggressive targets at 5401 with stop at 5861.

Momentum oscilators signaling major weakness. Key hurdle now seen at 661. Interweek strategy: Establish short positions between 645-651 zone, targeting 621 zone and then aggressive targets at 601-605 zone with stop at 662.05.

Overbought technical conditions seen on daily charts. Momentum oscillators signalling weakness. Intraday strategy: Establish short positions between 1220-1225 zone, targeting 1183 zone and then aggressive targets at 1165 with stop at 1245.

Establish short positions in ACC on any early strength. Immediate targets seen at 1469.

ACC

BHARAT FORGE

BRITANNIA

RAMCO CEMENTS

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL)

1509.7 1469 1421 1545 1577 Negative

603.45 593 575 617 633 Negative

5755 5545 5401 5851 5921 Negative

637.35 621 601 651 661 Negative

1205 1183 1165 1241 1271 Positive



EQUITY DERIVATIVESLooking into the future from present.

Changes in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.

Nifty Spot

Bank Nifty Future

VIX

Premium

Nifty Future OI

Bank Nifty Spot OI

BSE Cash Vol. (Rs. in Cr)

NSE Cash Vol.(Rs. in Cr)

NSE Derivative Vol. (Rs. in Cr)

Index Future Volumes

Stock Future Volumes

Index Option Volumes

Stock Option Volumes

Total

Cash Volumes (INR in Cr.)

YesterdayDay Before Yesterday

Derivatives Vol.(INR in Cr.)

No of contracts

Turnover (Rs. In cr.)

Major Changes in Nifty Options (OI)

Market Summary:

Fear gripped over Dalal Street as the benchmark Nifty gave away Monday’s gains and

went on to close lower at 10858.25 mark in yesterday’s trade, down 1.36%. Barring

Metals, all other sectors witnessed a dull day where Auto and IT index were one of the

major losers. Nifty October Futures premium too, significantly dropped from +54 to only

+22. Stocks like Yes Bank, Indiabulls Housing and Bajaj Finance were the active contracts

in NSE Futures segment.

Amongst Broader Indices, the BSE Midcap Index was down 1.11% whereas surprisingly

BSE Smallcap Index was up 0.25%. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

Amongst the sectoral indices, outperforming the Sensex/Nifty was BSE Metal Index (up

1.74%), BSE Oil & Gas Index (up 0.63%), BSE PSU Index (up 0.59%).

Amongst the sectoral indices, underperforming the Sensex/Nifty were BSE Auto Index

(down 2.90%), BSE Teck Index (down 2.38%), BSE IT Index (down 2.23%)

Amongst stock specific action, positive bias was seen in stocks like YES BANK (up 5.63%),

Hindalco (up 4.76%), IBHSGFIN (up 3.74%)

Among stocks drifting down were: M&M (down 7.03%), EICHER (down 6.79%),

INFRATEL (down 6.45%)

Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11500 Strike Price, followed by 11200 Strike

Price for October Series. Heavy Call writing was seen at 10800-11300 strike prices for

October Series.

Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10500 followed by 10700 strike

price for October series. Put buying was seen at 10400-10700 strike price for October

Series.

As per Wednesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth Rs.

1550.04 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on the other hand bought shares worth

Rs. 1402.47 crores in the Indian Equity market.

Highest OI Nifty: Calls 11500: 30.65 L - Puts 10500: 37.62

Highest OI Bank Nifty: Calls 25500: 6.74 L - Puts 24500: 5.91 L

Change in Stock Open Interest (OI) in previous day’s trade.

Long Buildup: COAL INDIA, HINDALCO, INDIANB, HINDZINC.

Short Buildup: RELIANCE, M&M, RELCAP, EQUITAS, DABUR.

Short Covering: YES BANK, REC, NCC, HAVELLS, BPCL.

Long Unwinding: TATA STEEL, BHARATFORG, CESC, CANFINHOM, PETRONET.

Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: NIL.

New In Ban: NIL.

Out of Ban: NIL.

Future Call: SELL BHARAT FORGE OCTOBER FUTURES between

611-615 zone. Targets at 593 and then at 577. Stop: 627. Holding

Period: Intraday. Analyst’s Remark: Breaking Down (Bharat Forge

October Futures CMP 604.90).

Option Call: BUY TATA STEEL OCTOBER PE strike price 560 at CMP

16. Profit: Unlimited. Maximum Loss: Rs. 16,976. Stop: Exit Put

Option if Tata Steel moves above 595. (Tata Steel October Futures

CMP 579.90).

10858.25 (-1.36%)

25069.90 (-1.17%)

18.1175 (+7.62%)

+22 vs +54

1.68 crores (+4.84%)

18.90 lakhs (+2.02%)

3454 3494.71

39054.63 38662.68

1176211 774323

322926 29136

961531 60491

10652319 1049118

548246 37465

12485022 1176211

Calls in lakhs (% Change)

11200 28.3 (+26%)

11000 25.96 (+25%)

11100 24.56 (+27%)

Puts in lakhs (% Change)

10800 27.83 (-13%)

10700 35.21 (+35%)

10900 19.62 (+9%)


www.comfortsecurities.co.in

DAILY PIVOT TABLE



Instrument Close S1 S2 R1 R2 200 Day SMA Reversal Point Trend

All level indicated above are based on cash market prices.

Pivot Point

PP : Pivot Point : This is trigger point for weekly buy/sell based on the price range of the previous week.R1 : Resistance one : 1st Resistance over PP. R2 : Resistance two : 2nd Resistance over R1.S1 : Support one : 1st support after PP. S2 : Support Two : 2nd support after S1.

As per the tool, the trader should take BUY position just above PP and keep the stop loss of PP and the first target would be R1.If R1 is crossed then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.

Similarly if price goes below PP the trader should SELL and keep the PP as Stop loss and the first target would be S1.

If S1 is crossed then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.This is a trading tool. The key to use of this tool is the use of STOP LOSS.


NIFTY 10858.25 10804.98 10751.72 10950.28 11042.32 10897.02 10777.14 UP

NIFTYMID50 4650.45 4614.62 4578.78 4709.72 4768.98 4673.88 5140.68 DOWN

BANKNIFTY 25069.9 24907.48 24745.07 25351.19 25632.47 25188.77 26108.64 DOWN

ACC 1509.7 1480.8 1451.9 1552.3 1594.9 1523.4 1544.25 DOWN

ADANIENT 134.8 129.4 124 140.85 146.9 135.45 128.82 UP

ADANIPORTS 329.75 324.77 319.78 336.37 342.98 331.38 387.79 DOWN

AJANTPHARM 1039.05 1022.55 1006.05 1064.75 1090.45 1048.25 1245.67 DOWN

ALBK 36.9 35.58 34.27 38.23 39.57 36.92 50.29 DOWN

AMARAJABAT 737.5 726.8 716.1 747.45 757.4 736.75 810.36 DOWN

ANDHRABANK 27.45 27.02 26.58 27.92 28.38 27.48 40.66 DOWN

APOLLOTYRE 206 202.68 199.37 211.88 217.77 208.57 267.65 DOWN

ARVIND 316.7 310.52 304.33 327.07 337.43 320.88 408.04 DOWN

ASHOKLEY 119.15 118.03 116.92 120.83 122.52 119.72 134.35 DOWN

ASIANPAINT 1251.75 1242.27 1232.78 1265.12 1278.48 1255.63 1241.22 UP

AUROPHARMA 771.6 762.2 752.8 785 798.4 775.6 630.19 UP

AXISBANK 572.25 563.37 554.48 586.87 601.48 577.98 555.26 UP

BAJAJ-AUTO 2731.4 2698.97 2666.53 2766.87 2802.33 2734.43 2929.77 DOWN

BAJAJFINSV 5752.5 5652.67 5552.83 5900.67 6048.83 5800.83 5740.19 UP

BAJFINANCE 2232.2 2155.52 2078.83 2319.42 2406.63 2242.73 2097.46 UP

BALKRISIND 1052.8 1031.2 1009.6 1079.2 1105.6 1057.6 1169.4 DOWN

BALRAMCHIN 76.2 72.47 68.73 79.47 82.73 75.73 88.46 DOWN

BANKBARODA 103.3 100.85 98.4 106.7 110.1 104.25 141.88 DOWN

BANKINDIA 80.6 77.82 75.03 83.67 86.73 80.88 112.87 DOWN

BATAINDIA 915.3 894.18 873.07 953.23 991.17 932.12 815.18 UP

BEL 83.4 81.45 79.5 85.05 86.7 83.1 133.01 DOWN

BEML 609.75 581.23 552.72 633.03 656.32 604.52 1062.8 DOWN

BERGEPAINT 283.5 278.35 273.2 287.8 292.1 282.65 279.55 UP

BHARATFIN 1016.55 998.67 980.78 1034.07 1051.58 1016.18 1110.02 DOWN

BHARATFORG 603.45 597.47 591.48 613.97 624.48 607.98 688.65 DOWN

BHEL 73.5 70.62 67.73 76.37 79.23 73.48 83.11 DOWN

BIOCON 660.9 647.27 633.63 682.27 703.63 668.63 607.5 UP

BPCL 377.85 364.2 350.55 386.65 395.45 373 419.48 DOWN

BRITANNIA 5739.4 5682.72 5626.03 5815.37 5891.33 5758.68 5522.07 UP

CANBK 231.8 227.1 222.4 238.2 244.6 233.5 283.45 DOWN

CANFINHOME 251.9 245.37 238.83 261.37 270.83 254.83 405.52 DOWN

CAPF 503.75 494.63 485.52 517.13 530.52 508.02 621.22 DOWN

CASTROLIND 143.55 141.78 140.02 145.73 147.92 143.97 180.08 DOWN

CEATLTD 1109.15 1089.47 1069.78 1134.37 1159.58 1114.68 1513.7 DOWN

CENTURYTEX 805.2 792.23 779.27 825.93 846.67 812.97 1097.5 DOWN

CESC 861.55 844.42 827.28 883.82 906.08 866.68 993.43 DOWN

CGPOWER 44.7 43.85 43 45.85 47 45 72.69 DOWN

CHENNPETRO 290.2 275.8 261.4 302.8 315.4 288.4 335.74 DOWN

CHOLAFIN 1198.05 1167.53 1137.02 1246.03 1294.02 1215.52 1451.68 DOWN

CIPLA 654.55 648.38 642.22 662.33 670.12 656.17 601.8 UP

COLPAL 1089.2 1078.47 1067.73 1102.47 1115.73 1091.73 1124.82 DOWN

CONCOR 641.2 633 624.8 651.3 661.4 643.1 657.06 DOWN

CUMMINSIND 669.8 663.8 657.8 676.75 683.7 670.75 759.56 DOWN

DABUR 425.3 417.1 408.9 438 450.7 429.8 377.56 UP

DALMIABHA 2252.65 2209.45 2166.25 2321.9 2391.15 2278.7 2742.9 DOWN

DCBBANK 149.3 144.48 139.67 152.83 156.37 148.02 175.85 DOWN

DHFL 317.65 303.23 288.82 332.88 348.12 318.47 583.89 DOWN

DISHTV 57.1 56.1 55.1 58.8 60.5 57.8 72.37 DOWN

DIVISLAB 1309.15 1286.47 1263.78 1328.87 1348.58 1306.18 1125.87 UP

DLF 154.8 150.42 146.03 160.47 166.13 156.08 213.23 DOWN

DRREDDY 2489.55 2464.7 2439.85 2531.7 2573.85 2506.85 2245.22 UP

EICHERMOT 23235.75 22607.17 21978.58 24307.17 25378.58 23678.58 28659.33 DOWN

ENGINERSIN 114 111.5 109 118 122 115.5 150.76 DOWN

EQUITAS 116.45 113.52 110.58 121.07 125.68 118.13 147.41 DOWN

ESCORTS 621 605.57 590.13 640.07 659.13 624.63 856.05 DOWN

EXIDEIND 259.05 254.93 250.82 265.88 272.72 261.77 245.33 UP

FEDERALBNK 70.2 69.03 67.87 72.33 74.47 71.17 91.02 DOWN

FORTIS 136.25 134.42 132.58 137.42 138.58 135.58 145.13 DOWN

GAIL 381.75 378.63 375.52 385.28 388.82 382.17 352.24 UP

GLENMARK 625.65 617.5 609.35 637.9 650.15 629.75 578.63 UP

GMRINFRA 16.7 16.15 15.6 17.4 18.1 16.85 18.62 DOWN

GODREJCP 765.45 749.48 733.52 791.93 818.42 775.97 794.68 DOWN

GODREJIND 506.65 499.4 492.15 515.95 525.25 508.7 587.73 DOWN

GRANULES 97.8 95.03 92.27 101.38 104.97 98.62 107.8 DOWN

GRASIM 969.5 956.82 944.13 987.67 1005.83 974.98 1074.96 DOWN

GSFC 96.55 93.95 91.35 99.2 101.85 96.6 123.83 DOWN

HAVELLS 612.9 591.97 571.03 628.42 643.93 607.48 566.13 UP

HCC 11.55 10.93 10.32 12.08 12.62 11.47 22.87 DOWN

HDFC 1797.55 1782.32 1767.08 1816.12 1834.68 1800.88 1856.27 DOWN

HDFCBANK 2031.15 2008.03 1984.92 2053.23 2075.32 2030.12 1986.09 UP

HDIL 20.65 19.5 18.35 21.45 22.25 20.3 37.01 DOWN

HEROMOTOCO 2913.5 2877.33 2841.17 2972.33 3031.17 2936.17 3514.81 DOWN

HEXAWARE 433.9 422.83 411.77 452.18 470.47 441.12 412.56 UP

HINDALCO 253.75 243.28 232.82 260.23 266.72 249.77 236.28 UP

HINDPETRO 251.15 240.32 229.48 259.47 267.78 248.63 327.52 DOWN

HINDUNILVR 1618.85 1602.98 1587.12 1638.38 1657.92 1622.52 1509.02 UP

HINDZINC 294.3 288.18 282.07 299.53 304.77 293.42 299.34 DOWN

IBREALEST 90.4 83.13 75.87 94.03 97.67 86.77 183.44 DOWN

IBULHSGFIN 943.95 881.67 819.38 1005.07 1066.18 942.78 1229.98 DOWN

ICICIBANK 303.7 299.27 294.83 311.32 318.93 306.88 304.68 DOWN

ICICIPRULI 330.35 326.92 323.48 335.42 340.48 331.98 395.9 DOWN

ICIL 62.4 60.45 58.5 64.05 65.7 62.1 89.52 DOWN

IDBI 55.65 53.8 51.95 57.3 58.95 55.45 63.03 DOWN

IDEA 36.7 35.73 34.77 38.43 40.17 37.47 69.61 DOWN

IDFC 40.65 39.78 38.92 41.88 43.12 41.02 51.86 DOWN

IDFCBANK 37.5 36.75 36 38.45 39.4 37.7 47.08 DOWN

IFCI 12.85 12.2 11.55 13.45 14.05 12.8 20.12 DOWN

IGL 241.2 236.7 232.2 248.6 256 244.1 287.21 DOWN

INDIACEM 99.05 96.12 93.18 102.92 106.78 99.98 138.8 DOWN

INDIANB 252.05 241.07 230.08 262.52 272.98 251.53 332.95 DOWN

INDIGO 778.3 768.2 758.1 792.2 806.1 782.1 1169.94 DOWN

INDUSINDBK 1638.7 1610.07 1581.43 1663.27 1687.83 1634.63 1824.08 DOWN

INFIBEAM 76.7 69.58 62.47 82.03 87.37 74.92 167.62 DOWN

INFRATEL 251.7 245.27 238.83 262.87 274.03 256.43 318.11 DOWN

INFY 728.5 719.22 709.93 744.87 761.23 735.58 614.08 UP

IOC 158.4 153.3 148.2 161.3 164.2 156.2 173.76 DOWN

IRB 138.15 134.85 131.55 143.15 148.15 139.85 220.15 DOWN

ITC 295.2 293.23 291.27 298.58 301.97 296.62 277.3 UP

JETAIRWAYS 177.2 165.67 154.13 187.17 197.13 175.63 520.4 DOWN

JINDALSTEL 186.55 181.5 176.45 194.7 202.85 189.65 229.46 DOWN

JISLJALEQS 66.55 62.92 59.28 69.77 72.98 66.13 103.45 DOWN

JPASSOCIAT 7.1 6.8 6.5 7.4 7.7 7.1 16.74 DOWN

JSWENERGY 63.2 60.93 58.67 64.58 65.97 62.32 75.75 DOWN

JSWSTEEL 383.4 377.53 371.67 388.38 393.37 382.52 319.23 UP

JUBLFOOD 1192.1 1167.8 1143.5 1228.7 1265.3 1204.4 1218.52 DOWN

JUSTDIAL 476.85 459.77 442.68 494.47 512.08 477.38 511.51 DOWN

KOTAKBANK 1098.25 1076.72 1055.18 1129.17 1160.08 1107.63 1185.49 DOWN

KPIT 220.05 214.57 209.08 225.97 231.88 220.48 247.33 DOWN

KSCL 512.5 470.35 428.2 558.6 604.7 516.45 542.11 DOWN

KTKBANK 100.05 97.55 95.05 102.65 105.25 100.15 125.29 DOWN

L&TFH 128.15 126.17 124.18 131.47 134.78 129.48 166.23 DOWN

LICHSGFIN 412.05 406.38 400.72 420.33 428.62 414.67 519.13 DOWN

LT 1245.45 1227.4 1209.35 1262.75 1280.05 1244.7 1319.97 DOWN

LUPIN 898.05 889.1 880.15 910.45 922.85 901.5 842.32 UP

M&M 791.6 770.57 749.53 829.07 866.53 808.03 838.41 DOWN

M&MFIN 406.2 401.57 396.93 412.92 419.63 408.28 469.77 DOWN

MANAPPURAM 74.95 72.48 70.02 77.23 79.52 74.77 107.42 DOWN

MARICO 327.2 323.47 319.73 332.67 338.13 328.93 329.15 DOWN

MARUTI 7246 7167.77 7089.53 7367.47 7488.93 7289.23 8996.87 DOWN

MCDOWELL-N 502.8 495.68 488.57 513.23 523.67 506.12 648.51 DOWN

MCX 710.75 687.17 663.58 735.17 759.58 711.58 802.39 DOWN

MGL 809.7 801.92 794.13 817.57 825.43 809.78 929.82 DOWN

MOTHERSUMI 242.85 237.67 232.48 251.12 259.38 245.93 325.06 DOWN

MRF 63138.8 62577.9 62017 63676.85 64214.9 63115.95 73195.76 DOWN

MRPL 71.85 65.37 58.88 77.17 82.48 70.68 101.64 DOWN

MUTHOOTFIN 407.1 399.43 391.77 418.73 430.37 411.07 416.02 DOWN

NATIONALUM 69 63.92 58.83 72.27 75.53 67.18 71.45 DOWN

NBCC 57.6 56.5 55.4 59.4 61.2 58.3 92.71 DOWN

NCC 74.85 70.85 66.85 78.4 81.95 74.4 112.2 DOWN

NMDC 114.6 110.9 107.2 117.9 121.2 114.2 120.82 DOWN

NTPC 167.35 166.02 164.68 168.77 170.18 167.43 166.22 UP

OFSS 4043.95 3970.7 3897.45 4117.6 4191.25 4044.35 4014.82 UP

OIL 220.45 218.2 215.95 223.35 226.25 221.1 224.23 DOWN

ONGC 181.45 178.4 175.35 184 186.55 180.95 178.4 UP

ORIENTBANK 65.3 63.07 60.83 67.92 70.53 65.68 91.59 DOWN

PCJEWELLER 55.55 53.52 51.48 58.17 60.78 56.13 249.26 DOWN

PEL 2307.45 2216.32 2125.18 2408.67 2509.88 2317.53 2637.1 DOWN

PETRONET 221.7 219.23 216.77 225.08 228.47 222.62 231.56 DOWN

PFC 79.75 77.4 75.05 82.7 85.65 80.35 91.88 DOWN

PIDILITIND 995.85 976.03 956.22 1030.18 1064.52 1010.37 1016.34 DOWN

PNB 64.65 62.78 60.92 66.43 68.22 64.57 106.13 DOWN

POWERGRID 188.95 187.43 185.92 191.38 193.82 189.87 196.22 DOWN

PTC 72.35 69.93 67.52 74.58 76.82 72.17 91.1 DOWN

PVR 1227.85 1209.55 1191.25 1254.5 1281.15 1236.2 1339.04 DOWN

RAMCOCEM 637.35 627.65 617.95 649.4 661.45 639.7 737.29 DOWN

RAYMOND 667.1 656.7 646.3 683.3 699.5 672.9 945.19 DOWN

RBLBANK 526.15 517.43 508.72 536.63 547.12 527.92 529.24 DOWN

RCOM 11.8 11.25 10.7 12.4 13 11.85 19.83 DOWN

RECLTD 105.25 101.33 97.42 108.83 112.42 104.92 125.58 DOWN

RELCAPITAL 277.1 270.5 263.9 288 298.9 281.4 436.46 DOWN

RELIANCE 1205.1 1190.23 1175.37 1229.78 1254.47 1214.92 1013.64 UP

RELINFRA 301.75 288.4 275.05 316.25 330.75 302.9 439.67 DOWN

REPCOHOME 419 408.82 398.63 431.07 443.13 420.88 588.46 DOWN

RPOWER 27.05 26.02 24.98 28.17 29.28 27.13 38.14 DOWN

SAIL 68.95 67.52 66.08 70.87 72.78 69.43 80.1 DOWN

SBIN 271.7 268.63 265.57 276.73 281.77 273.67 276.66 DOWN

SHREECEM 16632.35 16366.25 16100.15 16936.4 17240.45 16670.3 17072.98 DOWN

SIEMENS 980.3 947.57 914.83 1001.02 1021.73 968.28 1088.51 DOWN

SOUTHBANK 14.15 13.58 13.02 14.63 15.12 14.07 24.16 DOWN

SREINFRA 35.4 33.73 32.07 37.38 39.37 35.72 74.15 DOWN

SRF 1763.1 1693.82 1624.53 1808.57 1854.03 1739.28 1912.66 DOWN

SRTRANSFIN 1077.9 1039.82 1001.73 1134.72 1191.53 1096.63 1392.59 DOWN

STAR 447.2 434.55 421.9 460.8 474.4 448.15 571.6 DOWN

SUNPHARMA 620.85 612.65 604.45 634.9 648.95 626.7 554.4 UP

SUNTV 628.5 613.17 597.83 653.17 677.83 637.83 871.98 DOWN

SUZLON 5.9 5.53 5.17 6.28 6.67 5.92 10.32 DOWN

SYNDIBANK 32.4 31.13 29.87 33.68 34.97 32.42 54.17 DOWN

TATACHEM 669.25 658.2 647.15 688.15 707.05 677.1 717.78 DOWN

TATACOMM 488.1 478.88 469.67 501.88 515.67 492.67 608.76 DOWN

TATAELXSI 1187.4 1161.9 1136.4 1212.15 1236.9 1186.65 1179.73 UP

TATAGLOBAL 227.6 223.07 218.53 234.82 242.03 230.28 267.68 DOWN

TATAMOTORS 227.6 224.67 221.73 231.67 235.73 228.73 324.53 DOWN

TATAMTRDVR 120.65 118.68 116.72 123.13 125.62 121.17 183.76 DOWN

TATAPOWER 67.5 66.15 64.8 69.05 70.6 67.7 80.87 DOWN

TATASTEEL 579.6 572.4 565.2 590.6 601.6 583.4 612.94 DOWN

TCS 2162.85 2127.3 2091.75 2226.7 2290.55 2191.15 1709.36 UP

TECHM 750.15 736.1 722.05 772.5 794.85 758.45 646.18 UP

TITAN 794.5 786.13 777.77 807.93 821.37 799.57 882.47 DOWN

TV18BRDCST 35.45 34.12 32.78 36.47 37.48 35.13 55.44 DOWN

TVSMOTOR 538.45 525.05 511.65 560.55 582.65 547.15 625.46 DOWN

UBL 1287.5 1262.4 1237.3 1326.2 1364.9 1301.1 1150.91 UP

UJJIVAN 255.05 248.58 242.12 264.43 273.82 257.97 372.29 DOWN

ULTRACEMCO 3860.3 3791.72 3723.13 3950.22 4040.13 3881.63 4077.8 DOWN

UPL 642.65 631.67 620.68 661.37 680.08 650.38 701.1 DOWN

VEDL 240.1 232.53 224.97 247.28 254.47 239.72 272.73 DOWN

VGUARD 173.3 170.53 167.77 177.63 181.97 174.87 220.36 DOWN

VOLTAS 529.7 519.8 509.9 542.4 555.1 532.5 593.17 DOWN

WIPRO 327.5 323.33 319.17 330.83 334.17 326.67 289.17 UP

WOCKPHARMA 549.7 533.58 517.47 566.23 582.77 550.12 724.89 DOWN

YESBANK 212.75 202.35 191.95 223.05 233.35 212.65 332.79 DOWN

ZEEL 437.7 432.58 427.47 443.28 448.87 438.17 552.55 DOWN



Comfort ‘Forecast and Analysis’

Forecast and Analysis is a daily newsletter that provides technical update on all the major instruments of the world like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, US Dollar Index and USD/INR. We define their support and resistance levels and attempt to forecast their movement with a short / medium term perspective. Also in the report, a trader will find bias for the mentioned instruments.

This newsletter is also quite popular with a market participant who loves to have insight & theme on MCX Gold, MCX Silver as well MCX Crude-Oil.

Forecast and Analysis

Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2 Bias


MCX GOLD

MCX SILVER

MCX CRUDE OIL

MCX COPPER

MCX NATURAL GAS

USD-INR

Forecast and Analysis …Direction at a glance



Gold price closed on a positive note in Wednesday's trade. Downside well supported near 30251 mark. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions between 30777-30901 zone, targeting 31350 mark and then aggressive targets at 31900 with stop at 30475.

Silver prices too flared up in yesterday's trade. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions between 38251-38501 zone, targeting 39650 mark and then aggressive targets at 40100 with stop at 30475.

The recent sequence of higher highs/lows remains intact. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions between 5300-5345 zone, targeting 5645 zone and then aggressive targets at 6000 with stop at 5100.

Copper prices are back in positive momentum. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions between 444-449 zone, targeting 479 mark with stop at 501.

Natural Gas prices continue to be in positive territory. Intraday strategy: Establish long positions between 227.50-229 zone , targeting 245 and then aggressive targets at 249-251 zone with stop at 215.

USD/INR witnessed an all time high in Wednesday's trade. Key support now at 71.45. Interweek strategy: We have a neutral bias amidst overbought technical conditions. Having said that buying on any sharp declines should be the preferred strategy.

31253 30777 30251 31350 31900 Positive

38985 38251 36850 39650 40100 Positive

5509 5245 5100 6000 6500 Positive

458 444 418 479 501 Positive

239.90 227.45 215.00 245.00 251.00 Positive

73.32 71.45 70.00 75.00 77.00 Positive

MCX Silver: Establish long positions on any early declines.

Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2


GOLD $

SILVER ($)

WTI CRUDE OIL ($ )

EUR/USD

Forecast and Analysis …Sailing global trend

Bias

DOW JONES

US Dollar Index



Dow eyes 27,000. Robust domestic economy seen as key trigger for optimism.

Gold prices were seen drifting in yesterday's trade. Hurdles now seen at 1245. Confirmation of major strength only above 1245. Interweek Strategy: Sell between 1215-1217 zone, targeting 1189 and then at 1171 with stop above 1229.

Silver prices traded sideways in yesterday's trade. Hurdles now seen at 15.45. Confirmation of major strength only above 16.09.

The recent sequence of higher highs/lows remains intact. Intraday strategy: Establish long positions at CMP targeting 78-81 zone with stop at 72.

We have a negative bias on EUR/USD. Major weakness seen only below 1.1486. Selling on strength should be preferred strategy.

We have positive bias for US Dollar Index. Hurdles at 97.50. Downside well supported at 92.50. Major weakness now only below 92.50.

Overnight at Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for a fifth straight session, as the new trade agreement reached Monday between the U.S., Canada and Mexico boosted investors' sentiment. Positive bias to continue.

1203 1189 1271 1227 1245 Neutral

14.70 14.56 14.10 15.45 16.09 Neutral

75.25 72 68.3 77.5 81 Positive

1.1521 1.1379 1.1100 1.1745 1.1900 Negative

95.63 92.50 89.25 97.50 99.00 Positive

26895 26349 26030 27200 27600 Positive


DAILY PIVOT TABLE



CommodityExchange Close S1 S2 R1 R2200 Day

SMA Reversal

Point Trend

MCX ALUMINUM

MCX CARDAMOM

NCDEX CASTOR

NCDEX CHANA

MCX COPPER

MCX COTTON

MCX CRUDE-OIL

MCX GOLD

NCDEX GAUR GUM

NCDEX GAUR SEED

NCDEX JEERA

MCX LEAD

MCX MENTHA OIL

MCX NATURAL GAS

MCX NICKLE

NCDEX RM SEED

MCX SILVER

NCDEX SUGAR

NCDEX SOYA BEAN

MCX ZINC

153.1 150.63 148.17 154.38 155.67 144.97 133.07 DOWN

1396.5 1386.33 1376.17 1410.33 1424.17 1088.68 1394 UP

4652 4631.33 4610.67 4681.33 4710.67 4273.65 4645 UP

4110 4082.33 4054.67 4151.33 4192.67 3822.8 3953 UP

454.95 448.62 442.28 459.07 463.18 446.18 447.4 UP

21930 21763.33 21596.67 22023.33 22116.67 21440.1 22470 UP

5501 5380 5259 5567 5633 4476.36 5116 UP

30592 30410 30228 30734 30876 30382.51 31120 UP

9148 9095.67 9043.33 9234.67 9321.33 8882.3 9370 DOWN

4269 4247 4225 4304 4339 4123.23 4364 DOWN

18775 18690 18605 18855 18935 17631.55 19180 DOWN

148.75 147.27 145.78 150.27 151.78 156.85 142.65 DOWN

1672.3 1660.53 1648.77 1689.03 1705.77 1468.04 1241.75 UP

228.1 222.27 216.43 231.37 234.63 191.14 214.6 UP

913.8 902.83 891.87 923.13 932.47 915.41 895 UP

4141 4124.33 4107.67 4166.33 4191.67 4024.89 4274 UP

38445 38131 37817 38683 38921 38755.82 36958 DOWN

3050 3050 3050 3050 3050 3614.83 3015 UP

3167 3143.33 3119.67 3209.33 3251.67 3495.28 3412.5 UP

197.1 192.52 187.93 199.57 202.03 202.23 179.05 DOWN



DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of Comfort Securities Ltd. and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Comfort Securities Ltd. its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Comfort Securities Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.

Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by Comfort Securities Ltd. in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. Comfort Securities Ltd. has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Comfort Securities Ltd. makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment.

POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report)Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. • Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.

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Comfort Securities Limited Daily Research Reports · massive Rs 21,000 crore (USD 3 billion) from...

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