Comex Technical Outlook of 03 october

Global Research Limited

03rd,October

Report Report COMEX COMEX


2 www.capitalvia.com

DATE TIME: IST DATA PRV EXP

03.10.13

Global Economic Data

03rd October,2013

IMPACT

Unemployment Claims

Unemployment Claims 6:00 P.M 305K 315K

Department of Labor (latest release)Source

Usual Effect

Frequency

Next Release

The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;

Oct 10, 2013

Measures

FF Notes

Why TradersCare

Also Called

This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there

tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when

the reading is at extremes;

Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an

important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with

labor-market conditions;

Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;

Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;

03.10.13 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 7:30 P.M STRONG 58.6 57.2

03.10.13 Natural Gas Storage 8:00 P.M LOW 87B 96B

STRONG



03rd October,2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Institute for Supply Management (latest release)Source

Usual Effect

Frequency

Next Release

Also Called

Acro Expand

Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry;

Nov 5, 2013

Services PMI, Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

Measures

FF Notes

Why TradersCare

Derived Via

Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Source changed series from

unadjusted to seasonally adjusted as of January 2001. Source changed series calculation formula as

of Feb 2008

It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their

purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of

the economy;

Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of

business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and

inventories;

Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends;

Natural Gas Storage

Energy Information Administration (latest release)Source

Usual Effect

Frequency

Next Release

Also Called

Acro Expand

Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week;

Nov 10, 2013

Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories, Working Gas;

Energy Information Administration (EIA);

Measures

FF Notes While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;

No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;

Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;



03rd October,2013

Ÿ

ŸGold traded higher today, closing at 1320 after yesterday's weak close. Key support is at the 1273 low from August 7.

Resistance is at the recent high of 1354.

Ÿ

Gold recovered today after yesterday's rout as equities dipped amid concerns over continued US government shutdown. The

metal opened at 1297.50/1298.50, dipped slightly to a low of 1297.00/1298.00 early on, before advancing to a high of

1323.50/1324.50 by mid-morning. Price traded around this level for the remainder of the session, closing at 1320.00/1321.00.

Gold dropped after U.S. Congress failed to reach an agreement on a budget for the next fiscal year, leading to the first

government shutdown in 17 years.

Ÿ The U.S. government began a partial shutdown after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on a new budget before

Monday's midnight deadline.

ŸSPDR Gold Trust said its holdings fell 0.46 percent, or 4.2 tonnes, to 901.79 tonnes

Ÿ After trading sideways overnight, silver opened today at the session low of 21.25/21.30. Price traded higher to peak

at 22.00/22.05 on weak private payroll growth and the continued standoff in the US government. The metal then

retreated from its high, closing the day at 21.88/21.93.

Ÿ Silver also traded higher, closing at 21.88 and erasing yesterday's losses. Interim support is at yesterday's low at

20.62. There is resistance in the low-22 area which has been a congestion area since mid-September, and which was

previously a big support level from April to June.

ŸYesterday we warned of a potential bearish move in the gold-silver ratio, and this was confirmed today with a close

lower at 60.45. The lower close is a sell signal, targeting 58.70, the last major low (from September 19). Resistance is

at yesterday's high at 62.37.

ŸSilver dropped as investors viewed metal as less profitable due to improving data and sentiments that a U.S.

government shutdown will be short lived.

ŸPrices fell due to technical factors as investors saw little to support the precious metal going forward

Ÿ.Market talk continued to persist that Fed will keep its monthly bond-buying program in place to offset any damage the

shutdown may inflict on recovery.

Gold

Silver


03rd October,2013


Ÿ On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery fell 0.34% to USD103.75 per barrel

in Asian trading Thursday. The November contract settle higher by 2.02% at USD104.10 per barrel on Wednesday.

Ÿ The crude oil inventories release showed an increase of 5.5 million barrels for the week ending September 27. This was

higher than the consensus of a 2.3 million increase in the number of barrels, reflecting a downturn in consumption. The

total number of crude oil inventories in the US was at 363.7 million barrels that week.

ŸIn US economic news, the government shutdown carried on for its second day in a row as President Obama refused to budge

until a good budget deal is struck.

Ÿ Oil futures traded lower during Thursday's Asian session on some profit-taking following a stellar performance during

Wednesday's U.S. session that saw crude soar on news of a potential drop in supply. Energy company TransCanada revealed

that it would not be able to finish its work on a part of the Keystone pipeline this October.

ŸCrude dropped amid concerns a partial shutdown of the U.S. government will create a drag on fourth quarter U.S. economic

growth.

ŸOil has come under downward pressure in the past month as supply has improved, with Libya ramping up output and tensions

easing over Syria.

ŸU.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels.

ŸOn the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.278 a pound

during European morning trade, up 0.1%.

ŸCopper prices traded in a range between USD3.249 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.282 a pound. The December

contract settled 1.5% lower at USD3.274 a pound on Tuesday.

ŸCopper prices were likely to find support at USD3.249 a pound, Tuesday's low and the weakest level since September 24 and

resistance at USD3.337 a pound, Tuesday's high.

ŸCopper futures swung between small gains and losses on Wednesday, amid concerns a partial shutdown of the U.S. government will

create a drag on fourth quarter U.S. economic growth.

ŸCopper edged lower as investors digested disappointing manufacturing data out of China and after U.S. lawmakers missed a deadline

to avert a government shutdown.

Ÿ China data showed that the nation's official manufacturing PMI inched up to 51.1 in September from 51.0 in August.

ŸSome investors however were worried about the longer-term prospects for the metal, due to a looming supply surplus.

Crude

Copper

INDEX ROLLOVER


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Technical levels

SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

GOLD 1293 1266 1334 1348

SILVER 21.24 20.59 22.29 22.69

COPPER 3.2695 3.2230 3.3410 3.3660

CRUDE 102.27 100.45 105.07 106.05

Comex Technical Outlook of 03 october

Investor Relations

Transcript of Comex Technical Outlook of 03 october