Combating terrorism: An Event Tree Approach

Talk at the BTR 2003 Conference

Richard WilsonMallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics

Harvard University

March 21st 2003

First task:Define the problem.

Next task: break it into component parts

factorizable as much as possibleThen follow Sequence of Events

Step 1. The Creation of a Terrorist

Step 2. A Terrorist Enters Society

Stp 3.Terrorist Exploits Vulnerability

It is usually easiest to address the first step in a chain of events

Definition of a Terrorist (OED) The terrorists, as they were justly denominated, from the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the people in

implicit subjugation by a merciless severity (1795)   Several notables are believed to be more or less

implicated in the acts of the Terrorists (1905)    Miss G...., daughter of a Wexford terrorist, directed

many of the tortures which were so extensively practiced (1866)

some book of the religious terrorists which tended to infuse the alarm of foul perdition(1805)

Was Hitler and his Nazis a gang of terrorists?

even though they were the legitimate government of

Germany, originally elected by the people?  

Were opponents of Hitler terrorists?

Esp. Colonel Von Stauffenburg who tried to assassinate Hitler with a bomb in a brief case?

Were the Hutus in Ruanda terrorists when they killed Tutsis although they were the legitimate government?

    Were the Young Turks terrorists when they victimized the Armenians in 1916?

Or were the Armenians terrorists because they were not model citizens?

Were (and are) the opponents of British rule in Ireland

terrorists?    Has the situation changed since partition in 1922?

Is the government of Russia guilty of terrorism against the people of Chechnya (who have as much voting power as other residents of Russia)

or are the radical Chechens guilty of

terrorism against Russia?

Or both?     Is the government of Sri Lanka acting like the Jacobins against the Tamils of the

north, or are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists to be tamed?

Is the government of Sri Lanka acting like the Jacobins against the Tamils of

the north, or

are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists to be tamed?

Was the US terrorising people in WACO Texas, or fighting

terrorists?Timothy McVeigh thought the former

    Was General Custer fighting a band of Indian terrorists, or

were the Indians fighting an oppression worse than the

French had experienced in 1795?

Was Castro a terrorist or a freedom fighter when he opposed

the government of Batista? 

What about those branded by Castro as terrorists to whom the USA has given citizenship?    

Is the government of Israel a terrorist government because they follow " the

cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the (Palestinian) people in implicit

subjugation by a merciless severity"? Or are the Palestinians all terrorists

because they belong to an organization opposing the present government of Israel and its policies and in its early days, aim

to drive them into the sea?  

Probably both sides

are now wrong.

Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983).

The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1994) 

"Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of

oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing

us to slavery".

Gerry Adams?

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.

Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945 PM of Israel 1978, Nobel Peace Prize winner

Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first President of Tunisia

    A rebellion is a Revolution that does

not succeed (Victor Weisskopf) May 1940,  I learned unarmed combat.

Was I becoming a terrorist or a freedom fighter?

30 years ago a friend of mine became a terrorist.

Then he became a freedom fighterWithin 6 months he was a

statesmanNow he works with the poor.

He did not change. He lives in Bangladesh

Step 1

Stop Terrorists being createdThus what are:

The root causes of Terrorism?Despair? Basic Evil thinking?

Address Grievances EVEN IF YOU DESPISE THE

TERRORIST

Step 2.Keeping Terrorists at Arm’s length   Resolve major trouble spots

before they fester

Any Domestic Dispute lasting 50 Years must be addressed

KashmirIsrael – Palestine

Ireland

Whey do I suggest 50 years? Physicists think million years After 50 years terrorism gets

exported.

Think where we want to be in 100 years

Ignore who did what to whom and when

.

Event Tree Analysis: step 3Imagine what a terrorist might do to society

and make it hard for him to do it

Combating Terrorism and Reducing Accidents are similar

Address the Low Probability High Conseqence Accident: The terrorist will.

Technically easy but a myriad of places to intervene

A terrorist can switch targets

 

I will “fight the last war” and make my comments on the

World Trade Center

In 1991 Herbert Levine (founder of Asbestospray) said that

“If a fire breaks out above the 50th floor

(where asbestos stopped)

the building will fall down.”

Pilots would now resist a hijacking

Bar cockpit doorsHidden switch to take control of

plane to ground or automatic pilot

(already suggested)

Few plans for a major fire at WTC? (FEMA report)

Insulation not tested for durabilityFire and initial impact destroyed all safety

mechanisms (Common mode failure should have been

foreseen!)Helicopter fire fighters?

Protect buildings by cables from towers or balloons?

Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high.

(expensive but possible;

e.g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the

temperature - time profile with calculation)

Night Clubs have accidentsNight Clubs are terrorist targetsAddressing the first is a good

cure for the secondAlways look for emergency exits

Every club owner and every performer must be aware of fire

danger

Designers of buildings and large facilities must IN FUTURE

always perform a risk analysis with especial attention to possible

events:with high consequence

yet low probability

Saboteurs and terrorists will increase the probability

Safer Energy facilities   Do not store a lot of fuel in one place

near a lot of people in one place.  Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in

remote areas.   (In 1848 London decided to keep Petroleum

products 30 miles from London bridge in Canvey Island)

Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power.

Cities have been built on EstuariesHydroelectric dams are upstream.A dam failure (low probability)

can have high consequence.

If Littleton dam on the Connecticut failed in time of flood it would take

out all dams downstream

In 1944 Wing Commander Gibson destroyed a dam in Germany with a 6000 pond bomb in unfavorable

circumstances. In 1975 Littleton dam was

unguarded and I could drive onto it to unload a bomb

Electricity Distribution Systems are easy to sabotage.

A major storm in France cut the system at a few places,

and caused major havoc.

In 1944 bored US officers shot at insulators on transmission towers

and shut off power to the Dartmouth naval base.

20 well placed saboteurs with shot guns could do as much.

Avoiding anthrax scare easyIrradiate all mail at sorting offices

(Co60 or Cs137)

poisoning water supplies? Emergency purification?Mobile water purifiers

are simple

We must be prepared for a new disease whether introduced by

terrorist or natural causes

Sabotage has always been easy:- Disgruntled Con.Ed. Worker

blew up substations- Forest worker set a major fire

- Schoolboys synthesized H2S to get an afternoon off

How much effort should we make for reducing it?

Some terrorists are now educated.

Also some act in concert Modern Society is Vulnerable

    Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life.

  They will be with us until the end

of the human race. 

Physicists (and economists)like a quantitative approach

to decide how much to spend.EPA says $6.1 million per

calculated life.

But terrorism is more disturbing and society clearly wants to pay

more

We must not let terrorism distort our lives.

Other risks are bigger.Car accidents:

45,000/yr vs. 3,500 onceDrugs destroy society more

Security vs. FreedomOur human rights are what makes life worth living.

“If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.”

Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com