Colors in Projects 2013 Bucharest - Kanban Briefly Explained

[email protected], @djaa_dja

KanbanSuccessful Evolutionary Change for your Technology Business


A story to get us started


Change requestsMicrosoft 2004 - the XIT Story

Developers TestersProductManagers

User Acceptance

Deployment

1211

109

8

76

54

3

2

1

PrioritizedBacklog

76

5

94

32

1

Waiting forTest

11

1

PTCs

PTCs? What did that acronym mean? Items that did not require coding!

Why were they treated as emergencies?

Requests for estimates of future work are often “invisible”, have an

unpredictable arrival rate & are given priority.

Discard rate of estimated future work is often 50% or greater!Emergency work is unplanned &

receives highest priority. Arrival rate & volume are unpredictable.

Effect is hugely disruptive!


Capability & Customer Satisfaction


User Acceptance

Deployment

1211

109

8

76

54

3

2

1

PrioritizedBacklog

76

5

94

32

1

Waiting forTest

11

1

PTCsWhat was the observed capability of this

department? How was customer satisfaction?

On-time delivery was 0%. There was a 100% chance of interruption to estimate future

work.

Planning & prioritization were conducted monthly. Fastest response from receipt to

deployment was around 6 weeks, average 5 months, slow 1 year plus.

But everything had a business case and was prioritized by ROI!

Budgets were well governed but customer satisfaction was poor!


What Were the Issues?


User Acceptance

Deployment

1211

109

8

76

54

3

2

1

PrioritizedBacklog

76

5

94

32

1

Waiting forTest

11

1

PTCsSo what issues affected the outcome?

Why were governance policies so disruptive?

Product managers demanded fast response on estimates to facilitate future planning and provide fast feedback to business owners.

Entire backlog was planned & commitments made early. 90% of the backlog was re-planned

each month.

Expedite policy for PTCs was folklore – no one could explain why

So controlling the unplanned, disruptive demand would improve predictability!


What is a kanban system?


A Kanban Systems consists of “kanban” signal cards in

circulation


Kanban as a solution for XIT


A virtual kanban system was chosenBacklog

D

E

A

I

Engin-eeringReady

G

5Ongoing

Development Testing

Done3 3

TestReady

5

PTCs

F

B

CPull

Pull

PTCs are permitted to break the kanban limit

*Blocked to service PTC

*

UATDeploy-

mentReady

∞ ∞

H

FF FF FF F

G

PullChange

Requests It’s important to realize the process for software development did not change.

The kanban system is an overlay on the existing process. It changes scheduling

and prioritization only


The Results

Time (in quarters)

CRs

10

30

50

Backlog depleted. Serving at rate of

demand

240% improvement

in delivery rate

Time (in quarters)

Aver

age

Tim

e to

Res

olve

25

75

12590% drop in end-to-end delivery time*

* Includes queuing time prior to selection


What is a kanban system?(& how to implement one for knowledge

work)


Wish to avoid discard after commitment

Commitment is deferredBacklog

H

EC A

I

Engin-eeringReady

D

5Ongoing

Development Testing

Done3 3

TestReady

5

PTCs

Commitment point

We are committing to getting started. We are certain we want

to take delivery.

UATDeploy-

mentReady

∞ ∞

FF FF FF F

G

PullChange

RequestsItems in the backlog remain optional and unprioritized

Poolof

Ideas

Backlog


Discard rates are often high

H

E

C A

I

Engin-eeringReady

D

5Ongoing

Development Testing

Done3 3

TestReady

5

PTCs

UATDeploy-

mentReady

∞ ∞

F FF F

G

ChangeRequests

H

Discarded

The discard rate with XIT was 48%. ~50% is commonly observed.

Options have value because the future is uncertain

0% discard rate implies there is no uncertainty about the future

I

Reject

Deferring commitment and avoiding interrupting

workers for estimates makes sense when

discard rates are high!

Poolof

Ideas


FF FF FF F

Replenishment FrequencyUAT

H

E

C A

I

Engin-eeringReady

Deploy-mentReady

G

D

5∞

ReplenishmentOngoing

Development Testing

Done3 3

TestReady

5

PTCs

ChangeRequests

∞

Discarded

I

The frequency of system replenishment should reflect

arrival rate of new information and the transaction &

coordination costs of holding a meeting

Pull

Frequent replenishment is more agile.

On-demand replenishment is most

agile!

Poolof

Ideas


FF FF FF F

Delivery FrequencyUAT

H

E

C A

I

Engin-eeringReady

Deploy-mentReady

G

D

5∞

DeliveryOngoing

Development Testing

Done3 3

TestReady

5

PTCs

ChangeRequests

∞

Discarded

I

The frequency of delivery should reflect the transaction &

coordination costs of deployment plus costs &

tolerance of customer to take delivery

Pull Deployment buffer size can reduce as frequency of delivery

increases

Frequent deployment is more agile.

On-demand deployment is most agile!

Poolof

Ideas


FF FF FF F

Specific delivery commitment may be deferred even later

UAT

H

E

C A

I

Engin-eeringReady

Deploy-mentReady

G

D

5∞

Pull

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done3 3

TestReady

5

PTCs

ChangeRequests

2nd

Commitmentpoint*

Kanban uses

2 Phase Commit

∞

Discarded

I

We are now committing to a specific deployment and delivery

date

*This may happen earlier if circumstances demand it

Poolof

Ideas


FF FF FF F

Defining Kanban System Lead TimeUAT

H

E

C A

I

Engin-eeringReady

Deploy-mentReady

G

D

5∞

Pull

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done3 3

TestReady

5

PTCs

ChangeRequests

∞

System Lead Time

The clock starts ticking when we accept the customers order, not

when it is placed!

Until then customer orders are merely available options

Lead time ends when the item

reaches the first ∞ queue.

Discarded

I

Poolof

Ideas


Flow Efficiency

Done

Poolof

Ideas

FH E

C A

I

Engin-eeringReady

Deploy-mentReady

GD

GYPB

DEMN

2 ∞

P1

AB

Lead Time

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done VerificationAcceptance3 3

Flow efficiency measures the percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or

knowledge) versus waiting

Until then customer orders are merely available options

Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking

Flow efficiency = Work Time x 100%

Lead TimeFlow efficiencies of 2% have been reported*. 5% -> 15% is

normal, > 40% is good!

* Zsolt Fabok, Lean Agile Scotland, Sep 2012, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012

Working

Multitasking means time spent in working columns is often waiting

time


What is the Kanban Method?


Kanban Method

A management & cultural approach to improvement

View creative knowledge work as a set of services

Encourages a management focus on demand, business risks and capability of each service to supply against that demand


Kanban Method

Uses visualization of invisible work and virtual kanban systems

Installs evolutionary “DNA” in your organization

Enables adaptability to respond successfully to changes in your business environment


6 Practices for Evolutionary DNA

The Generalized Version

VisualizeLimit Work-in-progressManage FlowMake Policies ExplicitImplement Feedback LoopsImprove Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally(using models & the scientific method)


Kanban Kata


Feedback Loops

OperationsReview

ImprovementKata

StandupMeeting

The Kanban Kata


Standup Meeting

Disciplined conduct and acts of leadership lead to improvement opportunities

Kaizen events happen at after meetings


Improvement Kata

A mentor-mentee relationship

Usually (but not always) between a superior and a sub-ordinate

A focused discussion about system capability

Definition of target conditions

Discussion of counter-measures – actions taken to improve capability


Operations Review

Meet monthly

Disciplined review of demand and capability for each kanban system

Provides system of systems view and understanding

Kaizen events suggested by attendees


Scaling out across an organization


Treat each service separatelyDe

man

d

ObservedCapability

Dem

and

Dem

and

ObservedCapability

ObservedCapability


Some systems have dependencies on others

Dem

and

ObservedCapability

Dem

and

Dem

and

ObservedCapability

ObservedCapability


Organizational Improvements Emerge


Scaling KanbanEach Kanban System is designed from first principles around a service provided

Scale out in a service-oriented fashion

Do not attempt to design a grand solution at enterprise scale

The Kanban Kata are essential!

Allow a better system of systems to emerge over time


Scaling up and down(big projects, portfolios & personal work)


Scaling Up - Planning a big projectDevice Management Ike II Cumulative Flow

020406080

100120140160180200220240

Time

Feat

ures

Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete

Slope in middle3.5x - 5x slope

at ends 5x

Required (local average) delivery rate

2006 2008

During the middle 60% of the project schedule we need Throughput (velocity) to average 220 features

per month


Delivery RateLead Time

WIP=

Little’s Law

From observed capability

Treat as a fixed variable

Targetto

achieve plan

Calculated based on known lead time

capability & required delivery

rate

Determines staffing level

Changing the WIP limit without maintaining the staffing level ratio represents a change to the way of

working. It is a change to the process and will produce a change in the observed ‘common cause’

capability of the system

Plan based on currently observed capability and current working

practices. Do not assume process improvements.

If changing WIP to reduce undesirable effects (e.g.

multitasking), get new sample data (perform a spike) to observe

the new capability


55/week0.4 weeks

WIP = 22=

Using Little’s Law

From observed capability

Treat as a fixed variable

Targetto

achieve plan

Calculated based on known lead time

capability & required delivery

rate

Determines staffing level

At this point perhaps just a little black magic and experience may

be required.

Rounding 22 up to 25 would conveniently provide for 5 teams with a WIP limit of 5 items each

If our current working practices/process exhibited an

average WIP of 1 item per person then we require 25 people

organized in 5 teams of 5 people to complete the project on-time


1 lane per team

2-tiered boardKanban System within a Kanban System


Lead time

WIP in this area should be 25

items*

*photo taken early in the project

before it was fully staffed/loaded

Median lead time target is 2 days

Alert managers if beyond 5 days


Scaling Down - Personal Kanban

A mutation that emerged in my office in 2008 by Jim Benson & Corey Ladas

For individuals & small teams (2 or 3 ppl)

VisualizeLimit WIP

Simple To Do-Next-Doing-Done boards


Scaling Up - Portfolio Kanban

Another mutation that emerged in 2009 in various places such as mobile.de in Berlin

Focus on limiting projects in a portfolio

No real workflow

Visualize project completion through physical position of ticket

Visualize business risks


ACash Cows10% budget

Growth Markets60% budget

Innovative/New30% budget

Allocation of personnelTotal = 100%

B

D

E

F

K

H

G

Projects-in-progress

Horizontal position shows percentage complete

Complete0%

Complete100%

C

Color may indicate cost of delay (or other risk)

Hedging Investment Risk against Product Lifecycle in a Portfolio Kanban

Size of ticket indicates scale or size of project


Thank you!


About

David Anderson is a thought leader in managing effective software teams. He leads a consulting, training and publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing sustainable evolutionary approaches for management of knowledge workers.He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative agile methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola.David is the pioneer of the Kanban Method an agile and evolutionary approach to change. His latest book, published in June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.David is a founder of the Lean-Kanban University Inc., a business dedicated to assuring quality of training in Lean and Kanban for knowledge workers throughout the world.


Acknowledgements

Hakan Forss of Avega Group in Stockholm has been instrumental in defining the Kanban Kata and evangelizing its importance as part of a Kaizen culture.

Real options & the optimal exercise point as an improvement over “last responsible moment” emerged from discussions with Chris Matts, Olav Maassen and Julian Everett around 2009.

The inherent need for evolutionary capability that enables organizational adaptation was inspired by the work of Dave Snowden.


David J Anderson& Associates, Inc.


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Colors in Projects 2013 Bucharest - Kanban Briefly Explained

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