Colorado's Climate - Then and...
Transcript of Colorado's Climate - Then and...
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Colorado's Climate Colorado's Climate --Then and NowThen and Now
Nolan DoeskenNolan DoeskenColorado Climate CenterAtmospheric Science Department
Presented to Channel 7News, Colorado Climate Change Seminar, April 12, 2006, Denver, CO
Prepared by Odie Bliss with assistance of Wendy Ryan, Daniel Dennison, and Peter Rogers Photo by Lynn Kral
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Perspectives on Colorado’s Climate
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We have a lot of weather data!
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Kirk, Colo, CSU CoAgMet weather
http://www.coagmet.com
April 2005-2006
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Instrumental weather observations date back to the late 1800s
Las Animas Annual Precipitation(1867-2005)
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We are indebted to NWS for maintaining long-term weather stations
Army Signal Service (began 1870-1891)Weather Bureau (1890-1969) National Weather Service (1970-present)
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Climate is variable
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Colorado Average Annual Precipitation
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Fort Collins Historic Weather Station –Continuous observations from 1889 to present
Fort Collins Yearly Precipitation
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Fort Collins Daily Accumulated Precipitation
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A few storms contribute a large fraction of our precipitation
Fort Collins Daily Accumulated Precipitation for WY2003
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Fort Collins Flood July 1997
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Precipitation varies with the seasonsWater Year Average (1971-2000) Precipitation for Selected Stations
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Grand Junction Glenwood Spr Vail Pass Loveland Pass Denver Limon
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Quiz!What month is the wettest month of the year (on average) for northeastern Colorado AND the driest month of the year for southwestern Colorado?
Photo by Henry Reges
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Some climate elements are more consistent than others
Akron 4E Temperature
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Winter Average High Temperatures
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And one more thing to know, the data are good but not great….
MMTSMMTS
Photos by Christopher Davey
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This is quickly revealed when we try to explore long-term changes
Dillon Annual (Jan-Dec) Precipitation Totals
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So! Based on our available data, can we tell if our climate is changing?
Nolan in funky glasses
Photo by Henry Reges
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First, let’s look at temperaturesOf all the state’s long-term weather stations, very few have uninterrupted, consistent data for analyzing climate trends.
Cooperative Weather Stations
in Colorado
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Fort Collins Temperatures Fort Collins Average Temperatures from 1889 to 2005
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Fort Collins TemperaturesFort Collins Average Temperatures from 1889 to 2005
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Akron TemperaturesAkron Average Temperatures (from 1918-2005)
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Akron TemperaturesAkron Average Temperatures (from 1918-2005)
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Del Norte TemperaturesDel Norte Monthy Average Temperatures (1920-2005)
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Del Norte TemperaturesDel Norte Monthy Average Temperatures (1920-2005)
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Montrose TemperaturesMontrose 2 Average Monthly Temperatures (1911-2005)
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Montrose TemperaturesMontrose 2 Average Monthly Temperatures (1911-2005)
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What about Denver?!?
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Denver (combined)Denver (all 3 stations)
Monthly Average Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
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Denver City Denver WSFO Denver Intl AP
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Frost Free Days (Growing Season)
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Cheyenne WellsFrost Free Days
Cheyenne Wells, CO Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
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Rocky FordFrost Free Days
Rocky Ford 2SE Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
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AkronFrost Free Days
Akron 4E Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
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Fort CollinsFrost Free Days
Fort Collins, CO Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
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Del NorteFrost Free Days
Del Norte Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
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Cochetopa CreekFrost Free Days
Cochetopa Creek, CO Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
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MontroseFrost Free Days
Montrose #2 Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
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Grand Junction 6ESEFrost Free Days
Grand Junction 6ESE Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
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DillonFrost Free Days
Dillon 1E Length of Frost Free Period Based on 32 F Threshold
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1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Year
Num
ber o
f Fro
st F
ree
Day
s
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Evaporation
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Bonny Dam Evaporation
Bonny Dam May through Sept Pan Evaporation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Evap
orat
ion
(In)
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John Martin Dan EvaporationJohn Martin Dam
May through Sept Pan Evaporation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Evap
orat
ion
(In)
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Pueblo Evaporation
Pueblo WSO May through Sept Pan Evaporation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
*
2000
2005
Evap
orat
ion
(In)
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Grand JunctionGrand Junction
May through Sept Pan Evaporation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Evap
orat
ion
(In)
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PrecipitationPhoto by Wendy Ryan
![Page 45: Colorado's Climate - Then and Nowccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/Nolan-7NewsClimateChangeSeminar(… · Then and Now Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Atmospheric Science Department](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042712/5f9a6302c6dcd85df35f1001/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Akron PrecipitationAkron 4E Annual (Jan-Dec) Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
![Page 46: Colorado's Climate - Then and Nowccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/Nolan-7NewsClimateChangeSeminar(… · Then and Now Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Atmospheric Science Department](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042712/5f9a6302c6dcd85df35f1001/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Cheyenne Wells Precipitation Cheyenne Wells Annual Precip
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
![Page 47: Colorado's Climate - Then and Nowccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/Nolan-7NewsClimateChangeSeminar(… · Then and Now Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Atmospheric Science Department](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042712/5f9a6302c6dcd85df35f1001/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Rocky Ford Precipitation Rocky Ford Annual Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
![Page 48: Colorado's Climate - Then and Nowccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/Nolan-7NewsClimateChangeSeminar(… · Then and Now Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Atmospheric Science Department](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042712/5f9a6302c6dcd85df35f1001/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Fort Collins PrecipitationFort Collins Annual Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
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Durango PrecipitationDurango Annual Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
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Montrose PrecipitationMontrose Annual Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
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Grand Lake 1N Precipitation Grand Lake 1N Annual Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
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Mesa Verde PrecipitationMesa Verde Annual Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
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Standardized Precipitation Index 3 MonthFraction of Colorado in Drought
Based on 3 month SPI(1890 - February 2006)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1890
1892
1895
1897
1900
1902
1905
1907
1910
1912
1915
1917
1920
1922
1925
1927
1930
1932
1935
1937
1940
1942
1945
1947
1950
1952
1955
1957
1960
1962
1965
1967
1970
1972
1975
1977
1980
1982
1985
1987
1990
1992
1995
1997
2000
2002
2005
Year
Frac
tion
(in p
erce
nt)
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Standardized Precipitation Index 48 monthFraction of Colorado in Drought
Based on 48 month SPI(1890 - February 2006)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1890
1892
1895
1897
1900
1902
1905
1907
1910
1912
1915
1917
1920
1922
1925
1927
1930
1932
1935
1937
1940
1942
1945
1947
1950
1952
1955
1957
1960
1962
1965
1967
1970
1972
1975
1977
1980
1982
1985
1987
1990
1992
1995
1997
2000
2002
2005
Year
Frac
tion
(in p
erce
nt)
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Fort Collins Seasonal Patterns of PrecipitationFort Collins Comparison of Monthly Averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
1890-1929 1930-1969 1970-2005
1890-1929 = 15.23 inches1930-1969 = 14.421970-2005 = 15.69
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Akron Seasonal Patterns of Precipitation
Akron 4E Monthly Precipitation Averages
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
1890-1929 1930-1969 1970-2005
1905-1929 = 17.58 inches1930-1969 = 16.161970-2005 = 16.06
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Rocky Ford Seasonal Patterns of Precipitation
Rocky Ford Seasonal Precipitation Patterns
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
1890-1929 1930-1969 1970-2005
1890-1929 = 12.43 inches1930-1969 = 11.941970-2005 = 11.58
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Montrose Seasonal Patterns of Precipitation
Montrose Monthly Precipitation Patterns
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Prec
ipita
tion
(inch
es)
1890-1929 1930-1969 1970-2005
1897-1929 = 10.0 inches 1930-1969 = 9.311970-2005 = 9.70
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Mountain Snow!
Photo by Wendy Ryan
![Page 60: Colorado's Climate - Then and Nowccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/Nolan-7NewsClimateChangeSeminar(… · Then and Now Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Atmospheric Science Department](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042712/5f9a6302c6dcd85df35f1001/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
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April 1 Colorado SnowpackAPRIL 1 SNOWPACK
COLORADO STATEWIDE
95
109
119
104
87
109106
130
99
46
126
148146
59
114120
127
10410497
85 87
74
91 93
126
84
105112114
89
65
90 87
52
94
65
107
94
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Year
Perc
ent o
f Ave
rage
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Dry Lake April 1 Snow Course and Snotel
Dry Lake, CO (Elevation 8,400 Ft) April 1 SWE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
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Dry LakeMay 1 – April 1 SWE Difference
Dry Lake, CO (elevation 8,400 feet) Difference in SWE (May 1 - April 1)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Diff
eren
ce in
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course Difference in SWE (in)Snotel Difference in SWE (in)
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University CampApril 1 Snow Course and Snotel
Universtiy Camp, CO (Elevation 10,300') April 1 SWE (in)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
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University CampMay 1 – April 1 SWE Difference
University Camp, CO (Elevation 10,300') Difference in SWE (May 1- April 1)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Diff
eren
ce in
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course Difference in SWE (in)Snotel Difference in SWE (in)
1
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Independence PassApril 1 Snow Course and Snotel
Independence Pass, CO (Elevation 10,600') April 1 SWE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)
Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
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Independence PassMay 1 – April 1 SWE Difference
Independence Pass, CO (Elevation 10,600') Difference in SWE (May 1 - April 1)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Diff
eren
ce in
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course Difference in SWE (in)Snotel Difference in SWE (in)
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Porphyry CreekApril 1 Snow Course and Snotel
Porphyry Creek, CO (Elevation 10,760') April 1 and May 1 SWE (in)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
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Porphyry CreekMay 1 – April 1 SWE Difference
Porphyry Creek, CO Difference in SWE (May 1 - April 1)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Diff
eren
ce in
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course Difference in SWE (in)Snotel Difference in SWE (in)
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Mesa LakesApril 1 Snow Course and Snotel
Mesa Lakes, CO (Elevation 10,000') April 1 SWE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
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Mesa LakesMay 1 – April 1 SWE Difference
Mesa Lakes, CO (Elevation 10,000') Difference in SWE (May 1 - April 1)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Diff
eren
ce in
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course Difference in SWE (in)
Snotel Difference in SWE (in)
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Upper San JuanApril 1 Snow Course and Snotel
Upper San Juan, CO (Elevation 10,200') April 1 SWE (in)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course April 1 SWE (in)Snotel April 1 SWE (in)
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Upper San JuanMay 1 – April 1 SWE Difference
Upper San Juan, CO (Elevation 10,200') Difference in SWE (May 1 - April 1)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Diff
eren
ce in
SW
E (i
n)
Snow Course Difference in SWE (in)Snotel Difference in SWE (in)
![Page 74: Colorado's Climate - Then and Nowccc.atmos.colostate.edu/pdfs/Nolan-7NewsClimateChangeSeminar(… · Then and Now Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Atmospheric Science Department](https://reader033.fdocuments.in/reader033/viewer/2022042712/5f9a6302c6dcd85df35f1001/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Wind!!http://www.state.co.us/oemc/programs/renewable/anemometer.htm
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Denver Average Annual Wind SpeedDenver/Stapleton International Airport (DIA as of 1996) Average Annual Wind Speed
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14
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ave
rage
Ann
ual W
ind
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ed (m
ph)
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Colorado Springs Average Annual Wind Speed
Colorado Springs Airport Average Annual Wind Speed (mph)
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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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rage
Ann
ual W
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Spee
d (m
ph)
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Grand Junction Average Annual Wind Speed
Grand Junction Airport Average Annual Wind Speed
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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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rage
Ann
ual W
ind
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ed (m
ph
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Conclusions!
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Installed Pair (14)
Installed Single (61)
Climate Reference Network (CRN)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/uscrn/program.html
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Climate Reference Network (CRN)
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So, what should I do?Join CoCoRaHS!
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Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network
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For More Information, Visit the CoCoRaHS Web Site
Support for this project provided by Informal Science Education Program,National Science Foundationandmany local charter sponsors.
http://www.cocorahs.org
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Colorado Climate CenterData and Power Point Presentations available for downloading
http://ccc.atmos.colostate.educlick on “Drought”then click on “Presentations”