Colorado River Water Availability Study Colorado Water Workshop Gunnison, Colorado July 21, 2010
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Transcript of Colorado River Water Availability Study Colorado Water Workshop Gunnison, Colorado July 21, 2010
Colorado River Water Availability Study
Colorado Water WorkshopGunnison, Colorado
July 21, 2010
Colorado River Water Availability Study
Colorado Water WorkshopGunnison, Colorado
July 21, 2010CWCB Project
ManagerRay Alvarado
Consulting TeamAECOM
AMEC Earth & Environmental
Canyon Water ResourcesLeonard Rice Engineers
Stratus Consulting
“How much water from the Colorado River Basin is available to meet Colorado's water needs?“
• Phase IWater Availability under current infrastructure, currently perfected water rights, and current levels of consumptive and non-consumptive water demands
• Phase IIWater Availability under projected demands from existing, conditional, and new water rights and for additional consumptive and non-consumptive water demands
ObjectivesObjectives
2 Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
1500 20991950 2005 2040 2070
StateModStateCU
Statistical Models
Observed Hydrology
Overall Hydrology ApproachOverall Hydrology Approach
GCM’s & Hydrology
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER AT DELTA USGS (09149500)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 200,000 to 347,000 AF
Paleohydrology
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1520
1533
1546
1559
1572
1585
1598
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1624
1637
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1663
1676
1689
1702
1715
1728
1741
1754
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1780
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1806
1819
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1871
1884
1897
1910
1923
1936
1949
1962
1975
1988
2001
Year
3 Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
1977 1983Douglas-fir, south-central CO
From NOAA,
0.0
5.0
10.0
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20.0
25.0
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NOAA treeflow.info
Basis for Paleo-HydrologyBasis for Paleo-Hydrology
4 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
Hist
WGM1
(1536-1997)
WGM2
(1536-1997)
SRP
(1520-1964)
Hidalgo
(1520-1962)
Stockton1
(1520-1961)
Stockton2
(1520-1961)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1520
1534
1548
1562
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1590
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1660
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1688
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1758
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1786
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1814
1828
1842
1856
1870
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1926
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1996
Re-sequencing – The MotivationRe-sequencing – The Motivation
5 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
1.
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84
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Repeat 100x
Paleohydrology – Re-sequencingPaleohydrology – Re-sequencing
1950 Years 20056 Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
1500 20991950 2005 2040 2070
StateModStateCU
Statistical Models
Paleohydrology
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20
1520
1533
1546
1559
1572
1585
1598
1611
1624
1637
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1663
1676
1689
1702
1715
1728
1741
1754
1767
1780
1793
1806
1819
1832
1845
1858
1871
1884
1897
1910
1923
1936
1949
1962
1975
1988
2001
Year
Observed HydrologyGCM’s & Hydrology
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER AT DELTA USGS (09149500)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 200,000 to 347,000 AF
Overall Hydrology ApproachOverall Hydrology Approach
7 Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
Colorado River Basin• “Down-Scaled” Projections• Revised Basin-Wide HydrologyResult: Altered Stream Flows
Earth• Emissions Scenarios• Global Climate ModelsResult: Altered Temperature
and Precipitation State of Colorado• CDSS ModelingResult: Water Availability
GCMs and HydrologyGCMs and Hydrology
8 Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
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Climate Effect
Act
ual
Clim
ate
Adj
uste
d
Actual
Climate Adjusted
} Climate Effect
GCM Hydrology ProcessGCM Hydrology Process
9 Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
1500 20991950 2005 2040 2070
StateModStateCU
Statistical Models
Paleohydrology
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1520
1533
1546
1559
1572
1585
1598
1611
1624
1637
1650
1663
1676
1689
1702
1715
1728
1741
1754
1767
1780
1793
1806
1819
1832
1845
1858
1871
1884
1897
1910
1923
1936
1949
1962
1975
1988
2001
Year
Observed HydrologyGCM’s & Hydrology
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER AT DELTA USGS (09149500)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 200,000 to 347,000 AF
Overall Hydrology ApproachOverall Hydrology Approach
10 Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
11 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
Yampa River near Maybell (09251000)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 1,110,000 to 1,520,000 AF
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
12 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
White River near Colorado State Line, UT (09306395)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 396,000 to 630,000 AF
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
13 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
5,000
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25,000
30,000
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40,000
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
Colorado River near Grand Lake (09011000)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 72,800 to 96,500 AF
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
14 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
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AF
Colorado River near Cameo (09095500)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 2,810,000 to 4,040,000 AF
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
15 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
Taylor River below Taylor Park Reservoir (09109000)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 120,000 to 168,000 AF
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
16 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
50,000
100,000
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200,000
250,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
Gunnison River near Gunnison (09114500)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 483,000 to 660,000 AF
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
17 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
Gunnison River at Delta (09144250)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 1,550,000 to 2,290,000 AF
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
18 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
Natural FlowNatural Flow
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20,000
30,000
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50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
Uncompahgre River at Delta (09149500)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 204,000 to 354,000 AF
19 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
San Juan River at Pagosa Springs (09342500)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 215,000 to 327,000 AF
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
20 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
Animas River at Durango (09361500)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Model Results
Historical Average
Individual Model Results
Average Annual Natural Flow Ranges f rom 387,000 to 652,000 AF
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
Natural Flow ResultsNatural Flow Results
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40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AF
DOLORES RIVER NEAR BEDROCK (09171100)2040 Average Monthly Natural Flow
Range of Climate Model Natural Flows
Historical Natural Flow
Individual Climate Model Natural Flows
21 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
Result Summary – Natural FlowResult Summary – Natural Flow
22 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I
• Annual flow increases in some possible futures and decreases in others
• Annual flow generally increases in parts of the Yampa River basin and at higher elevation watersheds
• Annual flow generally decreases in south-western watersheds and at lower elevations
• Shifts toward earlier peak runoff
• Flow decreases in late summer and early fall
• Ranking of uncertainties (Wilby & Harris, 2005), largest to smallest:– GCM Projections – Downscaling method– Hydrology model structure– Hydrology model parameters– Emissions scenarios
• Uncertainties interact, but are not additive.
23 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
Uncertainties—Natural FlowUncertainties—Natural Flow
All projections, Glenwood SpringsAll projections, Glenwood Springs
24 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
350000019
7919
8519
9119
9720
0320
0920
1520
2120
2720
3320
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6320
6920
7520
8120
8720
9320
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Axi
s Ti
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All projections GWS
Ensemble of GCMs, Glenwood SpringsEnsemble of GCMs, Glenwood Springs
25 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
0
500000
1000000
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3000000
1979
1985
1991
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2003
2009
2015
2021
2027
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2039
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2069
2075
2081
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Axi
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cccma_cgcm3
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
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2009
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gfdl_cm2
0
500000
1000000
1500000
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2500000
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2009
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miroc3_2_medres
0
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1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
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tle
miub_echo_g
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500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
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2027
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2057
2063
2069
2075
2081
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s Ti
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mri_cgcm2_3_2a
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
2009
2015
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2027
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s Ti
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ncar_ccsm3_0
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
1979
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1991
1997
2003
2009
2015
2021
2027
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2039
2045
2051
2057
2063
2069
2075
2081
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Axi
s Ti
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ncar_pcm1
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
2009
2015
2021
2027
2033
2039
2045
2051
2057
2063
2069
2075
2081
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Axi
s Ti
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csiro mk3
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
2009
2015
2021
2027
2033
2039
2045
2051
2057
2063
2069
2075
2081
2087
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giss_model_e_r
Precipitation Time Series, Lees FerryPrecipitation Time Series, Lees Ferry
26 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
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1991
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2015
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2075
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Axi
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P All projections
Temperature Time Series, Lees FerryTemperature Time Series, Lees Ferry
27 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
0
2
4
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8
10
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14
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
2009
2015
2021
2027
2033
2039
2045
2051
2057
2063
2069
2075
2081
2087
2093
2099
Axi
s Ti
tle
T All projections
Natural Flow Time series at Lees FerryNatural Flow Time series at Lees Ferry
28 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study | Phase I
02000000400000060000008000000100000001200000014000000160000001800000020000000
1979
1985
1991
1997
2003
2009
2015
2021
2027
2033
2039
2045
2051
2057
2063
2069
2075
2081
2087
2093
2099
Axi
s Ti
tle
All projections
• Phase I demonstrates broad range of impacts to natural flows.– Complexity of modeling atmospheric
circulation
– Inherent uncertainties in GCM projections
• Robust results– Increased temperatures
– Less snowpack and earlier melt
ConclusionsConclusions
29 PRELIMINARY RESULTS – UNDER REVIEW Colorado River Water Availability Study – Phase I