Colorado Decision Support System for Prediction of Wildland Fire … · 2016-05-26 · 5/26/2016 1...

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Colorado Decision Support System for Prediction of Wildland Fire Weather, Fire Behavior, and Aircraft Hazards

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CO-FPS Stakeholder Meeting #523 May 2016

NCAR, Boulder, CO

5/26/2016

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Mesa Lab

NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputer Center

Aviation FacilityCenter Green

Foothills Lab

Quick View of a Test Case

TEST CASE

5/10/2016

Starts at 20:00 UTC2 PM LT

15 hour forecastWx Source: HRRR

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Progress Since April 2016

• Staging of CO‐FPS input datasets

• Development of the data ingest subsystem (HRRR, NAM, LANDFIRE, MMA, CO‐WIMS)

• Implementing data security measures

• Testing of data flows

• Working with Intterra on the development of the Interface Control Document (ICD)

• Updating the Functional Requirements Specification (FRS) based on user feedback

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Progress Since April 2016 (cont.)

• Testing a variety of CAWFE® model and computer configurations to optimize performance

• Configuring CAWFE® to run daily over the mountains and plains to evaluate run‐time performance (MPI vs. OpenMP, etc.) and robustness

• Created a test wildfire ignition capability to exercise CAWFE®

Progress Since April 2016 (cont.)

• Developed product viewing capability outside of CO‐WIMS for testing and evaluation purposes

• Prepared a Draft Training Plan and coordinated plan with Intterra

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Due Soon

• Functional Requirements Specification (FRS)

• Design Specification

• Performance Verification Metrics and Methodology Report

• Stakeholder Meeting Minutes (May meeting)

• Computer augmentation specification

Additional CO‐FPS DevelopmentInformation

Jim Cowie (NCAR)

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CO‐FPS DevelopmentBuilding up Real‐Time Capability

• High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)– 3km Numerical Weather Prediction model– From the National Weather Service– Supplies boundary conditions for the CAWFE® model– And provides CO‐scale weather products– Updated hourly– 15 hour forecast today, but expanding to 18 hrs this summer

• North American Model (NAM)– Also from NWS– Provides forecast information past 18 hours

CO‐FPS Development

Building up Real‐Time Capability

• Datasets still to acquire:

– AWOS, ASOS, RAWS, etc.

– MMA data (via CO‐WIMS)

– VIIRS data

• Used by CO‐FPS and/or

• Used for verification

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Process Automation

• HRRR & NAM automatically ingested• Working on automated processing scripts for product generation

• CAWFE® model triggering– Prototype script, currently run by hand– Initiates a CAWFE® run– Uses defined ignition point– Weather, terrain and fuel (LANDFIRE)– Eventually connected to CO‐WIMS


Interfacing To CO‐WIMS

• Working with Intterra

– Bi‐weekly telecons

• Interface Control Document

– Initial version delivered

– Describes how and what CO‐WIMS and CO‐FPS will communicate

– Secure communications

– Web services

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Interfacing To CO‐WIMS

• Providing web service URLs for testing

– For CO‐scale weather

– For fire simulations

• Working on interface services next

– Handling CO‐WIMS requests

– Tracking fire simulations


CAWFE® Model Development

• Optimizing model performance (compiler and parallelized configurations)

• Real‐time simulation stability testing– Different weather

– Different terrain

– Different fuels

• Case studies

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• Product symbology

• Product units

• Products will be set up as web services

• Dedicated product server to be set up

Starting CAWFE® Model Simulation

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Triggering a Fire Simulation

• Bill Petzke will demonstrate the manual triggering of a fire simulation, but not through CO‐WIMS yet

• Location: Hall Ranch, Boulder County, west of Lyons

• Weather: 10 May 2016 at 20:00 UTC (2 PM LT)

• Fuel: LANDFIRE

• Output will be demonstrated later in the meeting

Starting CAWFE® Model Simulation

Required Inputs (today it will be done manually)

• Location (LAT, LON)• Time (UTC)• Date• Fire boundary (min default = 100 m)• Fire flaming front boundary

In future, the ignition process will be done through CO‐WIMS

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Hall Ranch Fire Simulation Site Initialization Parameters

• Initialization Date/Time

– 10 May 2016 at 20:00 UTC

• Coordinates

– 40.2140979, ‐105.2923467

• Fire boundary radius at ignition

– 100 m

• Length of CAWFE® simulation

– 15 hoursHall Ranch

Hall Ranch Fire Simulation Site Initialization Parameters

Generalized weather at 20:00 UTC initialization (from the HRRR Model)

• Temperature: 64 F

• Gust: 28 mph

• Wind Speed: 16 mph

• Wind Direction (coming from): 248 degrees

• Relative Humidity: 28 %

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Triggering a Fire Simulation

Hall Ranch

Lyons

Hall Ranch Fire Simulation Site Terrain

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Hall Ranch Fire Simulation Site Ground View North

Hall Ranch Fire Simulation Site Ground View North West

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General Weather Situation on 10 May 2016

AIR TEMPERATURE


15 hour forecastSource: HRRR

ScenarioTemps in the mid 60s cooling down towards evening


RELATIVE HUMIDITY



ScenarioRH around 28% rising to 70% towards evening

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WIND GUST



ScenarioGusts around 28 mph falling to 15 mph towards evening


WIND DIRECTION & SPEED



ScenarioWind direction was initially from the southwest near Hall Ranch but veered to west and northwest and weakened quickly in the evening.

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Will View Hall Ranch Wildland Fire Simulation Towards End of Meeting

Updates on CAWFE® ModelConfiguration and Development

Branko Kosović, Pedro Muñoz Jimenez, Domingo Muñoz-Esparza

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Coupled Wildland Fire Spread and Weather Model

Surface fire spread model parameterized using Rothermel(1972) model

LANDFIRE – fuel data with Anderson (1982) fuel model Fuel burnout calibrated based on Albini et al. (1995) Optimizing model performance for the operational

implementation Implementing crown fire model by Finney (1998, FARSITE) Fire and burn area perimeter modeled using an improved

higher order level set method Assimilating MMA burn area perimeter and fire line data Explored using Scott and Burgan fuel model, however, fuel

burnout parameters for some fuel categories are not available

CAWFE® Uses LANDFIRE Fuel Data

Fuel parameters required by CAWFE® are: Surface fuel load [kg/m2] Fuel load decrease weighting parameter [s] Surface area to volume ratio [1/m] Fuel depth [m] Fuel moisture content of extinction Canopy fuel load [kg/m2] Canopy fuel burnout time [s]

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Fuel Burnout

Developments of WRF‐CAWFE® fire model

Basics of the spread model

• Fire spread model is based on Rothermel 1972

• Rate of spread (ROS) calculated at each grid point and used to propagate fire line forward in time

• This mathematically done using the ‘level‐set method’

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Developments of WRF‐CAWFE® fire model

Parallel computing

• Code rewritten to take maximum advantage of parallel computing

• Redundant calculations removed

• Increase in speed of the model ‐> the model runs faster

CPU#1 CPU#2

CPU#3 CPU#4

Developments of WRF‐CAWFE® fire modelSolution convergence (I)

• We need to discretize the level‐set equation

• How much do we need to refine the grid to reach convergence on the fire propagation/perimeter?– “Idealized fire”: uniform wind (U = 5 ms‐1), flat terrain, uniform fuel (short

grass), no feedback to the atmosphere (uncoupled mode) [initial fire line of 1 km length]

t=1min t=30min

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Developments of WRF‐CAWFE® fire modelSolution convergence (II)

• We have implemented high‐order (=more accurate) solutions for the fire propagation model

• Using higher‐order numerical schemes ‐> half the resolution is needed, 4 times faster

Developments of WRF‐CAWFE® fire modelSolution accuracy

• New implementation provides a more robust solution

dx=50m

dx=25m

dx=12.5m

Wind speed [ms‐1] Burnt area

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Developments of WRF‐CAWFE® fire modelSummary of the fire model developments

• New implementation takes maximum advantage of parallel computing and removes unnecessary calculations

• Resolution required by the new implementation is half ‐> faster

• Solution is more robust

Current work

• Refining canopy parameterization in WRF‐CAWFE®

• Implementing Rothermel 1991, Finney 1998, Scott & Reinhardt 2001

• Use higher‐fidelity models to calibrate & improve canopy parameterization in WRF‐CAWFE®

Forecasting System Performance Time required to perform a 1‐h simulation

The data preparation to run a simulation requires 3‐4 min

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High Park, CO, Fire

A wildfire in the mountains. Fire started Monday, June 9th,

2012, West of Fort Collins, CO, Larimer County.

Southwesterly winds The hot and dry conditions (fire

danger extreme) led to a rapid intensification of the fire.

87,000 acres burned – third largest wildfire in Colorado history by burned area.

259 homes burned. The fire was fully contained by

June 30th

Caused by lightningIgnition Point

17mi

High Park, CO, Fire

Ignition Point

17mi

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High Park, CO, Fire

d1

d2

d1 – 127 km x 127 km (1km grid cell)

d2 – 14 km x 14 km (111m grid cell)

High Park, CO, Fire



Contours – CAWFE® simulation

d2

d1

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High Park, CO, FireJune 9th, 20:20 UTC June 10th, 4:10 UTC

Last Chance, CO, Fire

Grassland fire Fire started Monday, June 25, 2012,

south of Last Chance, CO, Washington County

Strong southerly winds 45,000 acres burned – second

largest wildfire in Colorado in 11 structures burned, including four

houses The fire was fully contained by

Tuesday evening, June 26 Cause of fire ‐sparks an automobile

wheel following a tire blowout ( Wikipedia)

Fuel:Red – no fuelBlue – grass

Last Chance

Woodrow

Ignition Point

17mi

Google

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Last Chance, CO, Fire Grassland fire Fire started Monday, June 25, 2012,

south of Last Chance, CO, Washington County

Strong southerly winds 45,0000 acres burned – second

largest wildfire in Colorado in 11 structures burned, including four

houses The fire was fully contained by

Tuesday evening, June 26 Cause of fire ‐sparks an automobile

wheel following a tire blowout ( Wikipedia)


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Squares – VIIRS data Contours – CAWFE®

simulation

d2

d1


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Limited Demonstration of CO‐FPSProducts on GIS Displays

Jennifer BoehnertKevin Sampson

Molly Hausmann (Intterra)

User Questions from Functional Requirements Specification

• Displayed time units?

• Rate of spread units?

• Heat release units?

• Smoke concentration units? micro‐gram/m3

• Wind speed units?

• Turbulence units? Light, moderate, severe?

• More aviation thresholds and units later…

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Viewing the CAWFE® Model SimulationTriggered at Start of the Meeting

Hall Ranch CAWFE® Model AnimationTriggered at Start of the Meeting

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General Questions

Reference Slides

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Initial Operating Capability CO‐FPS Products

18 hour predictions (at user defined increments) of:

• Fire extent• Rate of spread• Heat release• Smoke concentration• Significant fire phenomena

• Turbulence intensity• Downdraft and updraft regions• Wind shear regions

• Wind speed, direction, gustiness• Surface air temperature• Surface relative humidity

Fire behavior product groupWill be calculated on 100 m fire scale

grids when triggered

Aviation hazard product groupWill be calculated on 3 km (state scale)Could also be provided on 1 km, and fire

scale grids (100 m)

Fire weather product groupWill be calculated on 3 km (state scale)Could also be provided on 1 km, and fire

scale grids (100 m)

Colorado Decision Support System for Prediction of Wildland Fire … · 2016-05-26 · 5/26/2016 1...

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