Colombian Program On Technological And Industrial

Foresight: Achievemens And Perspectives

Javier Medina VásquezFull Professor, Universidad del ValleHead of the National Program on

Technological and Industrial ForesightColciencias – Colombia

“Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impact on Policy and Decision-

Making”.

IPTS, Seville (Spain) , 28-29 September, 2006

1. COLOMBIAN CONTEXT

Colombia: Foresight Trajectory

Accummulation

The country has a respected Foresight tradition and trajectory in Latin America

Colombia is considered as a reference point for the Andean Zone and its social dynamic in Foresight is comparable to the leading countries in America and Europe.

Results

+ 30 Plans for Territorial Development (Departaments + Municipialities)

+ 20 Strategic Plans for Universities 25 Regional Agendas of SC+T 10 Technological Exercises

18 Technological Exercises in action

+ Capacity and Knowledge required

-

- + Time

Phases of the Colombian ProcessPhases of the Colombian Process

TRADITION AND TRAJECTORY (1970-1999)TRADITION AND TRAJECTORY (1970-1999)

INCUBATION (2000-2002)INCUBATION (2000-2002)

FOCUS ON CAPABILITIES (2003-2004)FOCUS ON CAPABILITIES (2003-2004)

STRATEGIC SECTORSSTRATEGIC SECTORS

2005-2006

2. Transition Focus 2005-2006

2003-2004

Development of national

capacities in technological and industrial

foresight

2005-2006

Orientation of national capacities in technological and industrial foresight

for the development of strategic areas in science, technology and innovation.

These areas should be applied to the knowledge economy

Future VisionFuture Vision

Strategic sectors

Strategic sectors Data base of

Methods, case studies

Data base of Methods, case

studies

CallsCalls

Agenda of Activities

Agenda of Activities

TrainingTraining SensibilitationSensibilitationWEB Site WEB Site

PlatformPlatform

DataBaseDataBase

Basic Components of the Program

Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344Resources- Colciencias /SENA, Ley 344

Strategies of the National Program on Industrial and Technological Foresight

Six exercises for Six exercises for new STI areas in new STI areas in

ColcienciasColciencias

Four exercises Four exercises for Excellence for Excellence

Centers of Centers of ColcienciasColciencias

Four exercises for Four exercises for Agricultural Agricultural

Productive ChainsProductive Chains

Two Two demonstrative demonstrative exercises for exercises for

Water & EnergyWater & Energy

Strategies

Development of Nation’s Development of Nation’s Vision, in transition toward Vision, in transition toward

society and economy of society and economy of knowledgeknowledge

Technological watch and Technological watch and foresight exercisesforesight exercises

Formation of Trainers & Formation of Trainers & Social Appropriation of Social Appropriation of Foresight KnowledgeForesight Knowledge

Sensitivity Sensitivity Meetings Meetings

International International Seminars Seminars

Analysis of Surroundings,Analysis of Surroundings,Delphi Exercise of strategic Delphi Exercise of strategic

sectors,sectors,Analysis of sector and territorial Analysis of sector and territorial

transformation,transformation,Scenarios & StrategiesScenarios & Strategies

3. Benefits of the focus shift: Global Cooperation

Instituto PRESTInstituto PRESTInstituto PRESTInstituto PREST

(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris(LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris

World Futures World Futures Studies FederationStudies Federation

World Futures World Futures Studies FederationStudies Federation

Millenium ProjectMillenium Project

United Nations United Nations UniversityUniversity

Millenium ProjectMillenium Project

United Nations United Nations UniversityUniversity

Georgia TechGeorgia TechGeorgia TechGeorgia Tech

George George Washington Washington UniversityUniversity

George George Washington Washington UniversityUniversity

Iale TecnologíaIale TecnologíaIale TecnologíaIale Tecnología

TrizTriz XXI XXITrizTriz XXI XXI

PREST: PREST: Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: Michel GodetMichel Godet (2005). WFSF: (2005). WFSF: Fabienne Goux-BaudimentFabienne Goux-Baudiment (2004). Millenium Project (2004). Millenium Project (UN): (UN): Jerome GlennJerome Glenn (2005-2006). (2005-2006). Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech: Alan PorterAlan Porter (2006), George (2006), George Washington University: Washington University: William HalalWilliam Halal (2003), Iale Tecnología: (2003), Iale Tecnología: Pere EscorsaPere Escorsa (2004- (2004-2005), Triz XXI: 2005), Triz XXI: Fernando Palop, José Miguel VicenteFernando Palop, José Miguel Vicente (2005) (2005)

PREST: PREST: Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper Ian Miles, Michel Keenan, Rafael Popper (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: (2003-2005). (LIPSOR)-CNAM-Paris: Michel GodetMichel Godet (2005). WFSF: (2005). WFSF: Fabienne Goux-BaudimentFabienne Goux-Baudiment (2004). Millenium Project (2004). Millenium Project (UN): (UN): Jerome GlennJerome Glenn (2005-2006). (2005-2006). Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech: Alan PorterAlan Porter (2006), George (2006), George Washington University: Washington University: William HalalWilliam Halal (2003), Iale Tecnología: (2003), Iale Tecnología: Pere EscorsaPere Escorsa (2004- (2004-2005), Triz XXI: 2005), Triz XXI: Fernando Palop, José Miguel VicenteFernando Palop, José Miguel Vicente (2005) (2005)

Consolidation of Infrastructure: Unit for Technological Watch and Competitive

Intelligence Analysis of patents and

science-metric and semantic analysis

Prospective

Internet

RemoteAccess and Safety

Broadening of portfolio of foresight methods and processes

The development of skills has been generated from a process of accumulation of experiences, intellectual production, processes, and methodologies.

The Program has progressively diversified its portfolio of services:

Executes pilot exercises Strategic and demonstrative exercises Sensitivity meetings on foresight and technological

watch designed for companies and conducted with local “strategic partners”

Conferences by invitation only, and Seminars for the Formation of Trainers motivated by the

Program Agenda. During the process new practices have been

introduced

Development of twelve (12) different types of intervention in foresight

Formulation of Strategic Re-orientation of a Program with governmental, institutional, and entrepreneurial participation: National Bio-technology Program

Exploration of a sector and re-direction of a centre for technological development: CIDET – Electrical Sector

Construction of a cluster: Export Health - Valle del Cauca Strategic Orientation of a sub-sector: Lacteous Sector-territorial Orientation: Tourism in Cartagena, Fique (palm fiber)

in Santander Exploration of expert opinion: Colciencias Thematic Areas Development of skills and Agendas I+D+I: Excellence Centers Strategic Re-orientation of a Public Institution: Fomipyme Scenarios of international co-operation: (Andres Bello Accord) CAB –

Scope 2015 Scenario strategies of transition to a Society and Economy based on

Knowledge Demonstrative Exercises: Water (EPM-EAAB) National Plan on Science, Technology, and Innovation 2019

4. Lessons

1st = Collective Learning

State of art International

Networks, Contacts

Expertise and Pluralism Levels of incertitude,

different traditions

Support for the existent infrastructure

Convergent Facts Seminaries, calls,

anchor institutions, materials and adapted

methodologies

Data base of methods, case

studies and tools

Critical Mass, Diffussion

Current Priorities

Construction of a long term vision of the country, and the place of science, technology and innovation in the knowledge economy

Growing support toward strengthening works of the regions

Training of Trainers

Sustainability of priorities in thematic areas and/or productive sectors of strategic interest for Colombia

Fortifying flows, regional clusters : Sector territorial exercises

Construction of regional systems of innovation

Universities and Centres as exchange agents multiplying the scope of the program

5. Conclusions

Tecnological and Industrial Forecast is an excellent institutional opportunity for reflecting on: The future of strategic sectors of the

country The possibilities to transform the

productive structure of the country and, The role of science and technology in such

transformation processes

Conclusions

Unstable environments, incertitudes and high level conflicts require greater use of foresight

Such environments need the development and gathering of capacities as well as the elaboration of progressive learning exercises

Technical profficiency sponsors colaboration. Learning is gained through international cooperation. We have established a wide synergy with international organizations

Foresight is not about predicting!... It is about identifying alternatives. Colombia seeks future alternatives and better decisions!!

Bibliography

Gómez Villasante, David & Bernal, Henry (2004) Plan of Joint Action in Science and Technology of the countries in the Andrés Bello Accord, Technical Commissions, Andrés Bello Accord, Bogotá.

Medina Vásquez, Javier (2000) “Function of long-term thought: action and institutional re-dimensioning of the ILPES”, Notes from the ILPES, N. 46.

Medina Vásquez, Javier (2001) “Function of long-term thought: significant experiences at the global level”, High-level Seminar on basic functions of planning and successful experiences, Latin American and Caribbean Institute of Economic and Social Planning, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Regional Planning Council, Santiago de Chile.

Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005a) for a foresight for unstable, uncertain, and highly conflictive environments: The experience of the Colombian Program on Technological and Industrial Foresight. Conference Proceedings the Fistera Conference, IST at the Service of a Changing Europe by 2020: Learning from World Views, European Union - IPTS, 16 -17 June, Seville.

Medina Vásquez, Javier (2005b) Technology with a future vision, in “CAF meeting for competitiveness”, Corporación Andina de Fomento, Caracas.

Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (1997) Foresight: Social construction of the future, Latin American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES) - Universidad del Valle, Cali.

Medina Vásquez, Javier & Ortegón, Edgar (2006) Manual on Foresight and strategic decision: Theoretical Bases and instruments for Latin America and the Caribbean, Latin American Institute of Economic and Social Planning (ILPES), Santiago de Chile.

Bibliography

Miles, Ian (2005) Foresight: a long breath path, in “CAF meeting for competitiveness”, Corporación Medina Vásquez, Javier & Rincón, Gladys (2006) Technological and industrial foresight: context, fundamentals, and applications, Colciencias–CAF, Bogotá.

Medina Vásquez, Javier & Sánchez, Marcela (2006) Foresight and technological watch: integrated focuses, Colciencias, Bogotá (in process of being published).

Miles, Ian & Popper, Rafael (2004) Recommendations to the Colombian NFP, PREST–Policy Research in Engineering, Science and Technology Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester.

National Planning Department (2003) Construction of a future for Colombia stemming from its territories, Memories of National Seminar, DNP – UNDP – ACCI – CAF, Bogotá.

Popper, Rafael & Medina, Javier (2006) Foresight in Latin America. Case Studies: Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela, in “International Handbook on Foresight and Science Policy: Theory and Practice”; PREST Institute - Edward Elgar (book coming soon).

Sánchez, J. Marcela & Palop, Fernando (2002). Software tools for the practice of Competitive Intelligence in the business place. Ed. Triz XXI. Madrid.

Thank you!

jmedina@colciencias.gov.cojaviermedinav@telesat.com.co