Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP).

Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

(CCFP)

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CCFP OverviewCCFP Overview

Convective weather is the single most disruptive force affecting the National Airspace System (NAS). These disruptions are the largest cause of delays in the system

Mitigation of delays requires collaboration in thunderstorm forecasting used for traffic flow management (TFM) decisions

CCFP seeks to reduce these disruptions by creating an accurate and reliable convective forecast for strategic use through collaboration

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CCFP Overview CCFP Overview ContinuedContinued

The CCFP forecast has been endorsed by the CDM Collaborative Routing Workshop as the cornerstone of strategic planning in NAS operations

The Aviation Weather Center (AWC) is the host for the generation of CCFP forecasts with input from CWSUs and airline meteorologists

The CCFP forecast is generated six times a day with two, four, and six hour forecast windows. The forecast is available on websites at the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC), AWC, and Collaborative Decision Making (CDM)

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CCFP Participants & UsersCCFP Participants & Users

CCFP was jointly developed by the FAA, NWS and the airline industry to provide a strategic forecast for NAS users to coordinate a system-wide approach to thunderstorm events

The participants who generate the CCFP forecast are the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Center Weather Service Units (CWSUs), and airline meteorologists

CCFP is designed for use by traffic flow planners:– Flight Operations Centers (FOCs)– FAA Traffic Flow Management Units

– Others

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CCFP GoalsCCFP Goals Provide traffic flow planners with common situational

awareness of forecast thunderstorms. Increase opportunities for forecast input by individual

NAS stakeholders through their meteorologists Reduce delays due to thunderstorm activity Improve FOC/TFM route coordination during

thunderstorm events Eliminate the time required for review of

thunderstorm forecasts during telcons of the Strategic Planning Team (SPT)

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CCFP HistoryCCFP History

1998 – Northwest Airlines, ZMP ARTCC CWSU and AWC initiate collaborative convective forecast

1999 – CCFP run as a test program 2000 – First full operational CCFP season 2001 – CCFP production expanded to 7X24 2002 – Production begins March 1

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Collaboration vs. ConsensusCollaboration vs. Consensus

Collaboration: All participants contribute their meteorological expertise. A final decision is made by a designated authority

IS NOT…

Consensus: All participants agree upon the final product before it is issued

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Collaborative ForecastCollaborative Forecast

Stakeholders have agreed to contribute their expertise to CCFP through open discussion in a chat room setting

It has been agreed by all stakeholders that AWC is the designated authority for the final CCFP forecast product

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Responsibilities of Product Responsibilities of Product DevelopersDevelopers

AWC:

– Produce the initial forecast– Moderate the chat room– Produce the final forecast

CWSUs:

– Provide input on the forecast for their area of responsibility

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Responsibilities of Product Responsibilities of Product Developers continuedDevelopers continued

Airline Meteorologists:

– Provide input on the forecast for their areas of interest

ATCSCC Weather Unit– Monitor chat room input– Request clarification on areas of concern

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Chat Room GuidelinesChat Room Guidelines All meteorologists are encouraged to provide

input in response to the initial forecast from AWC

All stakeholders have agreed the AWC forecaster is the final authority on the CCFP forecast product

Participants should limit input to their respective areas of responsibility/interest

Participants are not required to remain in the chat room. They are able to review input at any time and add additional comments

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Initial ProductInitial Product

60 minutes before final issue time AWC will post the initial forecast to the chat room for review

45 minutes before final issue time the chat room session commences

15 minutes before final issue time AWC closes the chat room session and develops the final forecast product based on chat room participation

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Final ProductFinal Product

The final forecast product is posted on the Web The SPT uses the final forecast product for the

development of a strategic plan

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CCFP Timetable (UTC)CCFP Timetable (UTC)

CCFP Package Initial Issue Time

Collaboration Session

Final Issue Time

Valid Time

0300 0145 0200-0230 0245 0500, 0700, 0900

0700 0545 0600-0630 0645 0900, 1100, 1300

1100 0945 1000-1030 1045 1300, 1500, 1700

1500 1345 1400-1430 1445 1700, 1900, 2100

1900 1745 1800-1830 1845 2100, 2300, 0100

2300 2145 2200-2230 2245 0100, 0300, 0500

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Thunderstorm ForecastingThunderstorm Forecasting

Thunderstorms are an extreme form of convection. Individual cells are fast, small, and tall: approximately a 20 minute lifespan, 1 mile wide, and up to 10 miles high

Lines or clusters of thunderstorms have a longer lifespan and are predictable under certain circumstances. This is the objective of CCFP

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Thunderstorm ForecastingThunderstorm Forecasting ContinuedContinued

Limitations on forecasting– Numerical weather prediction cannot yet reliably forecast

detailed thunderstorms on a national scale– Traditional observations (Rawinsonde balloons) are

inadequate: measurements are made every 12 hours and approximately 500 miles apart

– A modern observational network does not make direct measurements, but only detects thunderstorms indirectly from satellites, by NEXRAD, and through lightning detection data

– Therefore, specific locations of thunderstorms, their coverage and intensity cannot be predicted in detail

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Thunderstorm Forecasting Thunderstorm Forecasting ContinuedContinued

The CCFP forecast is designed for strategic planning of NAS operations– Best available forecast from experts in

government and industry– Includes all technical information – The CCFP forecast is used for daily TFM

strategic planning decisions – Augmented with Short term products:

Convective SIGMETS; NCWF; ITWS; CIWS

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Thunderstorm Forecasting Thunderstorm Forecasting ContinuedContinued

Methodology: – Predict the patterns of thunderstorms; not all

convection; not the detailed locations or times– Utilize forecasting tools from traditional observations– Utilize numerical model forecasts of the large-scale

pattern– Integrate all information with experience of an

operational forecaster– Make specific forecasts, but marked with the

Probability of Detection (POD)

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Product FormatProduct Format

Forecast thunderstorms with tops above 25,000 ft. and 25% or greater coverage

Colors indicate forecast thunderstorm coverage within the designated areas:– Yellow (low coverage, 25 to 49%)– Orange (medium coverage, 50 to 74%)– Red (high coverage, 75 to 100%) – Purple (solid lines)

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Product Format Product Format ContinuedContinued

Colors DO NOT indicate intensity levels!

Colors DO NOT indicate video integrator processor (VIP) levels that are found in radar reports!

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Low 25 to 49% - is an area where scattered thunderstorms are expected

Med 50 to 74% - is an area where thunderstorm clusters and/or frontal activity is expected

High 75 to 100% - is an area where dense overall thunderstorm coverage is expected. The area will likely include lines and clusters of thunderstorms

Solid lines of thunderstorms will be depicted as a purple line

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Maximum thunderstorm heights within the forecast area are reported in the following three categories– 25,000 – 31,000 feet– 31,000 – 37,000 feet– 37,000+ feet

The forecast heights identified are the maximum visible thunderstorm tops within the entire area, not the average

Note: NEXRAD radar indicates precipitation tops, which will always be lower than visible tops

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Growth rate – ++ = Fast Positive Growth– + = Moderate Positive Growth– NC = No Change– - = Negative Growth (area/tops decreasing)

This is an indicator of how the volume of denied airspace associated with the depicted forecast is likely to change with time

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Probability of Occurrence:– The forecasters’ confidence level is expressed as a

probability of occurrence of thunderstorms within the designated area in one of three classes: Low, Medium or High

Note: Generally, there will be a low level of confidence in the early morning forecast, and for forecast lead times of 6 hours. For shorter lead-times (e.g., 2 hours), or after thunderstorms have started, confidence will generally increase. Probability will also be influenced by expertise contributed during the collaborative forecast discussion.

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CCFP Forecast example from AWC CCFP Forecast example from AWC Web SiteWeb Site

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CCFP Scientific VerificationCCFP Scientific Verification Thunderstorm forecasts are compared to actual

weather conditions to assess accuracy and is posted within 24 hours

Statistical results are computed by the Real-Time Verification System (RTVS) and independently assessed by the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL)

These results and further explanation can be found on the FSL website, which is linked from the CCFP+ section of AWC’s CCFP website

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Product UtilizationProduct Utilization CCFP is a strategic Traffic Flow Management

planning tool (2 to 6 hrs in the future) All stakeholders have agreed CCFP will be the

thunderstorm forecast product for SPT planning CCFP is used during SPT telcons for the

development of the Strategic Plan of Operation (SPO)

CCFP is intended to be used by traffic planners in developing a strategic plan during thunderstorm activity

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Product Utilization Product Utilization ContinuedContinued

The goal of the CCFP is to forecast a level of thunderstorm activity (25% coverage or higher) that may impact the NAS. It is not intended to forecast all thunderstorm activity

Thunderstorms of less than 25% coverage may still impact the NAS but are handled as a tactical issue with input from local meteorologists

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Product Utilization Product Utilization ContinuedContinued

Differences in traffic volume, time of day and geographic areas affect planning decisions

Low probability of convection may be viewed as a tactical problem with “triggers” in the affected area

Low coverage with high probabilities in some areas of the NAS may have limited impact and be a tactical problem. In other areas of the NAS low coverage may have a major impact on the system operation (for example, NY area vs. Midwest)

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SummarySummary

CCFP is a strategic planning tool

CCFP will not meet all thunderstorm forecasting needs

Other weather forecasting tools (e.g. NCWF, Convective SIGMETS, ITWS, etc.) should be used in conjunction with CCFP

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Summary Summary ContinuedContinued

Colors do not correlate to intensity levels

Regional differences in traffic density varies impacts of convective activity from place to place

Please provide suggestions for improvement on CCFP website and through CDM representatives

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CCFP Web Locations CCFP Web Locations

AWC:http://cdm.aviationweather.noaa.gov/ccfp/index.php3

ATCSCC: http://www.fly.faa.gov/ Volpe:

http://www.volpe.dot.gov/ Forecast Systems Lab:

http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/

Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP).

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