Cole ready aim fire impact!- status impact analysis - nasa

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1 Innovative Scheduling Analysis – Status Impact Analysis Presenter: Mike Cole, PMI-SP, MCTS

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Transcript of Cole ready aim fire impact!- status impact analysis - nasa

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Innovative Scheduling Analysis – Status Impact Analysis

Presenter: Mike Cole, PMI-SP, MCTS

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Status Impact Analysis

Status Impact Analysis

Status Impact Report

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The two most common ways a schedule is analyzed outside of a weekly scheduling status review

In Earned Value Management the Schedule Variance is the difference between the amount of work performed versus work scheduled and is usually outlined in the monthly Contract Performance Report.

Monte Carlo Simulation is the most common form of Schedule Risk Assessment. It gives confidence in a schedule’s executability and insight into tasks just off the critical path that are most likely to become critical

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JCL Analysis --- Dice is a comprehensive model created by Booz Allen Hamilton as an initial response to NASA’s emerging area of Joint Confidence Level analysis.

This lack of integration has tangible consequences

• When cost growth is identified, it almost always implies schedule growth

• When the schedule growth is identified, it almost always implies cost growth

• When risks are identified, they almost always imply both cost and schedule growth

Program managers lose their opportunity to mitigate cost and schedule growth when these functions aren’t integrated

Dice is a targeted development effort to construct a JCL engine for the purpose of meeting NASA’s core JCL objectives. Dice - provides a framework for integrating cost, schedule and risk using existing artifacts to produce a cohesive analysis

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Dice Provides Unparalleled Insight Into the Relationships Between Cost, Schedule and Risk

Dice provides a range of potential cost and schedule outcomes

– Includes range of costs by year

Allows PMs to set reserves based on confidence levels – required by DoD/IC/NASA

Shows relationship between cost and schedule

– Reveals the range of potential costs for any schedule outcome and vice versa

All analysis is provided at every level of cost and schedule

– Enables risk-based management of subcontracts; mitigates cost growth from change orders

Dice also shows a probabilistic critical path

Demonstrates the secondary and tertiary effects of risks by integrating them into the schedule and cost estimate

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Today we will introduce to you an innovative scheduling analysis utilizing basic scheduling concepts recommended for all projects

The Status Impact Analysis automates a scheduling principle and only requires you to collect status as you normally would

Earned Value Schedule Risk Assessment Status Impact AnalysisResource Loaded

orAssigned Fixed Cost

Schedule

Set Event Triggers Transfer Previous Status

WBS Structureset at the

Control AccountLevel

Set Pessimistic, Optimistic, &Most Likely Durations for

Each Activity

Process Current Status

Process forCollecting Actualson a Monthly Basis

Identify Risk Assignments Highlight Impacts

Implement aMonthly

Change ControlProcess

Assign ProbabilityDistribution Curves

Print Status Impact Report

Collect Status Assign Values asrequired for special

conditions

 

  Perform RiskAnalysis Calculations

 

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The Status Impact Analysis informs the project team of what activity is taking longer, who is adding more predecessors, and which milestone dates are being altered

The Status Impact Analysis focuses the project manager on the areas impacting the project and ultimately the project finish date

Status Impact Analysis doesn’t supplant other schedule analysis techniques but rather enhances and/or confirms their analyses

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Unlike a what-if analysis or an analysis of planned vs. actual, Status Impact analysis identifies the direct cause of the impacts to the schedule

Has the duration

increased?

Was there a change in the predecessors?

Are milestone dates being

altered?

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Status Impact analyzes and compares changes from the previous status cycle in relation to the current status cycle

Schedule from Previous Status Cycle

Schedule from Current Status Cycle

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Identifying which adjustments are impacting the schedule rather than the activities being impacted by the status allows greater insight to the direct cause of the impact

“Critical paths have either a zero or negative total float, and schedule activities on a critical path are called ‘critical activities.’ Adjustments to activity durations, logical relationships, leads and lags, or other schedule constraints may be necessary to produce network paths with a zero or positive total float”

(PMBOK)

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Ideally, adjustments that occur on the Critical Path should receive immediate attention since this could affect the overall completion date of the project

Critical Path Analysis is used to predict total

project duration by assessing

which sequence of activities

(path) has the least amount of

scheduling flexibility (float).

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Tracking adjustments to activities’ increased durations, added predecessors, and delayed milestones finish dates alert the project team to what is impacting the schedule

Analysis of the full schedule will assist you as the critical path potentially changes and the near critical path may

become the critical path.

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Status Impact Analysis identifies what activity is causing the delay, the reason why, and the degree of impact to the project finish date

the What the How

the Degree

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By accenting the critical activities, a more focused analysis of the Status Impact Report can occur as you assess the impacts to the schedule

Critical activities compose the critical path, which needs the proper network logic built into the schedule

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Without a properly defined network logic, the critical path becomes the activity with the longest duration and emphasizes the need to track non-critical activities

The example illustrates two scenarios which would create a schedule with broken logic:

- One task spanning the duration of the project causing it to be the critical path

- The Lead has created an open-ending schedule areas resulting in a “to do” list and the absence of any network logic

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Status Impact Analysis can be run on schedules based on deterministic durations or a schedule which has implemented risk based PERT analysis

Use a three-point estimate to represent the uncertainty in durations (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic)

– Beta (Pessimistic+ 4 * most likely + Optimistic) / 6

– Triangular (Pessimistic+ most likely + Optimistic) / 3

PERT calculates the average duration and its standard deviation for each activity

Computes the completion date for the total project by adding the average duration of the activities along the PERT critical path, which is the longest path through the network using those averages. PERT critical path may be different from tradition critical path.

Real schedules have many parallel paths and convergence points, so PERT is not an appropriate method for examining risk in real schedules.

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The Status Impact Report provides schedule analysis at a fraction of the time it would take manually to produce the reports

Statusing of 50 Activities and Milestones

Statusing of 150 Activities and Milestones

Statusing of 500 Activities and Milestones

Amount of time per week

Number of hours per Year

Cost per year (based on $100 bill rate)

21. 5 hours

65 hours .

25 minutes

1 hour & 15 minutes

4 hours

$2,150

$6,500 .

$21,700217 hours

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Status Impact Analysis

Status Impact Analysis

Status Impact Report

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Status Impact Tool is the solution Booz Allen Hamilton developed to enable Status Impact Analysis

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The toolbar enables the user to navigate through each of the functions required to produce the Status Impact Report

Show Status Impact View

Transfer Current Status to Previous Status

Highlight impacts to the schedule

Remove highlighting from the schedule

Generate Reports

Modify Status Impact Settings

Print Preview of Status Impact Report

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An indicator will appear in the Status Impact column if one of the following criteria is met after processing the schedule status

Activity Duration Increased

Predecessor added to an Activity or Milestone causing the Finish Date to occur later than planned

Predecessor added to an Activity causing the Finish Date to occur later than planned AND Activity Duration Increased

Milestone to occur later than planned

Milestone to occur earlier than planned

Newly added Activities and Milestones

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Status Impact Demo